Scrabbarista's Mock Draft 3.0

[scrabbarista]

Pick order based on a tankathon.com simulated lottery.
Picks are who I'd pick in each team's place, not who I think the team will pick.
My philosophy is to go about 90-95% on projections, and 5-10% on fit, but it varies a lot by player and team.
Only players I've watched are included. These fourteen players are the only prospects I've observed much. While there may be a great chance I'd take Robert Williams (or any number of other guys) over Gary Trent Jr., I've only seen highlights of Williams, so he doesn't appear here.
Psychological profiles would be decisive in many of these selections were I an actual GM. I.e., given health, whether Kevin Knox or Mikal Bridges has a better career will almost certainly be determined by how hard each guy works. Without access to that kind of information or a background in psychology, I've just made assumptions based on on-court demeanor and interviews.
My methodology tends toward likely outcomes rather than upside, but, of course, upside is a factor.
The 6th pick was the most difficult (then the 1st). If I'm the Magic, I might take Jackson, Jr., Sexton, or Mikal Bridges.

1. Atlanta Hawks - Marvin Bagley

2. Dallas Mavericks - Luka Doncic

3. Chicago Bulls - Mohammed Bamba

4. Phoenix Suns - DeAndre Ayton

5. Memphis Grizzlies - Michael Porter, Jr.

6. Orlando Magic - Jaren Jackson, Jr.

7. Cleveland Cavaliers - Collin Sexton

8. Sacramento Kings - Mikal Bridges

9. New York Knicks - Trae Young

10. Philadelphia 76ers - Kevin Knox

11. Charlotte Hornets - Wendell Carter, Jr.

12. Los Angeles Clippers - Miles Bridges

13. Los Angeles Clippers - Trevon Duval

14. Denver Nuggets - Gary Trent, Jr.


Bagley III - A little Webber, a little Bosh, a little Rodman. Tempting to take Doncic or Bamba at #1. The odds of Bagley being the best player in this draft are well below 50%, but I still think he's the best prospect. It's that kind of draft.

Doncic - A hair below Bagley. The least (or second-least) likely to be terrible, and he has superstar potential; I can also easily see him never making an all-star team. It's that kind of draft. One of three players I'd consider taking first.

Bamba - Question his motor and IQ (aggressiveness, shot selection, hustle, positioning), but if his attitude is right, he could be a more skilled Gobert or the next Mutumbo. Can he be a fighter? I think yes. I'd consider taking him first overall.

Ayton - I think I see fool's gold in Ayton, but his talent is undeniable. Without detailed psychological profiles, I couldn't let him slip below fourth.

Porter, Jr. - Enormous bust or boom potential. If I'm the small-market Grizzlies at fifth, without my pick next year, I take the guy who at least has a chance to be a franchise player.

Jackson, Jr. - Not high on Jackson Jr.'s offensive potential, but it's there. The Magic's roster is a disaster; they need to think long term. Sexton is what they wanted Payton to be, but do they have the stomach to take him?

Sexton - If Lebron's staying, I might take Young here, but I think Sexton is the better foundational piece. He could be Kyle Lowry with a 7'0'' wingspan. I am a huge believer in Sexton. The major question is how much his passing develops.

Bridges - Add some switchability and join the modern NBA, Sacramento. If I fell in love with his psychological profile, I would definitely take Knox here.

Young - Not high on Young: likely best role as a super sub. Still, star potential. Fit is more of a factor than for any other player in the draft. Pair him with Ntilikina. Big question: the positive of his passing versus the negative of his defense.

Knox - More star potential than Bridges, but also three years younger, so there is much less of him to judge from.