Moose's Big Boards

[The Moose]

Post Draft Lottery update:

My main draft principles:
* Production & value impact : BPM, RAPM, WS/48
* Efficiency: TS%
* Feel: AST/TO + efficiency
* Hustle, Impact: (oreb rate, stl rate, block rate)
* Outlier physical traits *
* Outlier feel for the game *

NOTES:

- Aim of my big board: To reflect the VORP over the prospects careers
I prefer to have a concrete grading system rather than 'I just think player x is better than player y', things tend to get messy after the first few guys in redrafts.

- Differences within tiers are not notable at this stage, a lot depends on the draft fit

- I do think at least 1 of the wings I have in tier 5 (Knecht, Risacher, Furphy, Williams, Buzelis) will hit above my opinion, but I have no idea who lol

- Topic's recent injury spell and just general shakiness/not playing his last few months has caused me to drop him down a tier due to lack of confidence. If he loses his burst via injury he becomes a less enticing prospect.

Tier 3.5 - [fringe All star potential prospect] 2+ DPM potential prospects
1. Donovan Clingan
2. Zach Edey
3. Reed Sheppard
4. Kyle Filipowski

Tier 4 - [starters/impact players]1+ DPM potential prospects
5. Alex Sarr
6. Jared McCain
7. Nikola Topic
8. Rob Dillingham
9. DaRon Holmes II
10. Devin Carter
11. Ron Holland

Tier 5 - [rotation guys/guys that stick around the league] + to neutral DPM potential prospects
12. Dalton Knecht
13. Matas Buzelis
14. Zac Risacher
15. Johnny Furphy
16. Cody Williams
17. Tyler Smith
18. Stephon Castle
19. Kel’el Ware

[Tier 6 - high variance guys]
20. Isaiah Collier
21. Carlton Carrington
22. Jamal Shead
23. Ja’Kobe Walter
24. Baylor Scheierman
25 Jonathan Mogbo

[Fringe guys]
26. Payton Sandfort
27. Alex Karaban
28. KJ Simpson
29. Tyler Kolek
30. Mark Sears

[FarBeyondDriven]

Post Draft Lottery update:

My main draft principles:
* Production & value impact : BPM, RAPM, WS/48
* Efficiency: TS%
* Feel: AST/TO + efficiency
* Hustle, Impact: (oreb rate, stl rate, block rate)
* Outlier physical traits *
* Outlier feel for the game *

NOTES:

- Aim of my big board: To reflect the VORP over the prospects careers
I prefer to have a concrete grading system rather than 'I just think player x is better than player y', things tend to get messy after the first few guys in redrafts.

- Differences within tiers are not notable at this stage, a lot depends on the draft fit

- I do think at least 1 of the wings I have in tier 5 (Knecht, Risacher, Furphy, Williams, Buzelis) will hit above my opinion, but I have no idea who lol

- Topic's recent injury spell and just general shakiness/not playing his last few months has caused me to drop him down a tier due to lack of confidence. If he loses his burst via injury he becomes a less enticing prospect.

Tier 3.5 - [fringe All star potential prospect] 2+ DPM potential prospects
1. Donovan Clingan
2. Zach Edey
3. Reed Sheppard
4. Kyle Filipowski

Tier 4 - [starters/impact players]1+ DPM potential prospects
5. Alex Sarr
6. Jared McCain
7. Nikola Topic
8. Rob Dillingham
9. DaRon Holmes II
10. Devin Carter
11. Ron Holland

Tier 5 - [rotation guys/guys that stick around the league] + to neutral DPM potential prospects
12. Dalton Knecht
13. Matas Buzelis
14. Zac Risacher
15. Johnny Furphy
16. Cody Williams
17. Tyler Smith
18. Stephon Castle
19. Kel’el Ware

[Tier 6 - high variance guys]
20. Isaiah Collier
21. Carlton Carrington
22. Jamal Shead
23. Ja’Kobe Walter
24. Baylor Scheierman
25 Jonathan Mogbo

[Fringe guys]
26. Payton Sandfort
27. Alex Karaban
28. KJ Simpson
29. Tyler Kolek
30. Mark Sears

Watkins, da Silva, Missi, Ndongo, Ighodaro, Mitchell, Edwards, Flowers, Nunez, Ajinca, Dadiet, Chomche, Salaun, Bona, Klintman, Grant-Foster, Shannon Jr? Every single one of these guys could go in the first round (or every one could fall well into the 2nd round) yet you don't even have them anywhere? Like, not going to make NBA rosters?

[The Moose]

Post Draft Lottery update:

My main draft principles:
* Production & value impact : BPM, RAPM, WS/48
* Efficiency: TS%
* Feel: AST/TO + efficiency
* Hustle, Impact: (oreb rate, stl rate, block rate)
* Outlier physical traits *
* Outlier feel for the game *

NOTES:

- Aim of my big board: To reflect the VORP over the prospects careers
I prefer to have a concrete grading system rather than 'I just think player x is better than player y', things tend to get messy after the first few guys in redrafts.

- Differences within tiers are not notable at this stage, a lot depends on the draft fit

- I do think at least 1 of the wings I have in tier 5 (Knecht, Risacher, Furphy, Williams, Buzelis) will hit above my opinion, but I have no idea who lol

- Topic's recent injury spell and just general shakiness/not playing his last few months has caused me to drop him down a tier due to lack of confidence. If he loses his burst via injury he becomes a less enticing prospect.

Tier 3.5 - [fringe All star potential prospect] 2+ DPM potential prospects
1. Donovan Clingan
2. Zach Edey
3. Reed Sheppard
4. Kyle Filipowski

Tier 4 - [starters/impact players]1+ DPM potential prospects
5. Alex Sarr
6. Jared McCain
7. Nikola Topic
8. Rob Dillingham
9. DaRon Holmes II
10. Devin Carter
11. Ron Holland

Tier 5 - [rotation guys/guys that stick around the league] + to neutral DPM potential prospects
12. Dalton Knecht
13. Matas Buzelis
14. Zac Risacher
15. Johnny Furphy
16. Cody Williams
17. Tyler Smith
18. Stephon Castle
19. Kel’el Ware

[Tier 6 - high variance guys]
20. Isaiah Collier
21. Carlton Carrington
22. Jamal Shead
23. Ja’Kobe Walter
24. Baylor Scheierman
25 Jonathan Mogbo

[Fringe guys]
26. Payton Sandfort
27. Alex Karaban
28. KJ Simpson
29. Tyler Kolek
30. Mark Sears

Watkins, da Silva, Missi, Ndongo, Ighodaro, Mitchell, Edwards, Flowers, Nunez, Ajinca, Dadiet, Chomche, Salaun, Bona, Klintman, Grant-Foster, Shannon Jr? Every single one of these guys could go in the first round (or every one could fall well into the 2nd round) yet you don't even have them anywhere? Like, not going to make NBA rosters?

I usually don’t extend past 30 players, for practicality reasons.

The aim of my board is to reflect the VORP of the players in the class. Even 30 players is pushing it in regards to this aim as most drafts produce somewhere between 15 and 25 players that actually stick in the NBA to a relevant degree, I believe the average was around 18 last I looked into it.

So with that in mind, I personally just don’t feel the need to have an opinion on every single eligible player in the draft and continue ranking players into the 40's, 50's and 60's. Drafts do not produce that amount of legit NBA players. So, by the numbers, I would then be ranking players who I'm predicting (based on my own board) won't stick in the NBA.

If they aren’t in my top 30, they aren’t in my top 30. If people want to have top 60’s or top 100’s for fun, that’s totally fine, but to me its impractical and not particularly useful for the aim of my board.

Now, just because I don’t have a prospect listed doesn’t mean I think there isn’t ANY chance they could stick, or that I dislike them as a prospect.

But I have to be realistic about the amount of prospects that actually stick in the NBA from each class, and I can’t keep adding guys even if I like them. I have to make a cut off at some point, or to me that just signals I'm not very confident in my top 30.

If I think a player is likely to go beyond pick 20, basically anywhere from 20 to undrafted, I then have to seriously consider which players I actually think have got a solid chance in this range. Players drafted in this range do not typically get the amount of chances/opportunities that players drafted in the top 20 are afforded by teams.

Anyone not on my list is a prospect I consider unlikely to stick in the NBA, and in most cases; like a lot of the guys you listed, it is because they do not register very highly in the principles I follow for my board. I could potentially go out to 40 total prospects, but I don’t think I will.

As for the guys you listed:

Watkins: Definitely on the fringe of making the 30 for me, I could potentially still place him there
Mitchell: maybe
Salaun: maybe
Bona: maybe
Grant-Foster: maybe
Shannon Jr: maybe
Da Silva: won’t be on my list
Missi: won’t be on my list
Ndongo: won’t be on my list
Ighodaro: won’t be on my list
Edwards: won’t be on my list
Flowers: won’t be on my list
Nunez: won’t be on my list
Ajinca: won’t be on my list
Dadiet: won’t be on my list
Chomche: won’t be on my list
Klintman: won’t be on my list

[FarBeyondDriven]

Post Draft Lottery update:

My main draft principles:
* Production & value impact : BPM, RAPM, WS/48
* Efficiency: TS%
* Feel: AST/TO + efficiency
* Hustle, Impact: (oreb rate, stl rate, block rate)
* Outlier physical traits *
* Outlier feel for the game *

NOTES:

- Aim of my big board: To reflect the VORP over the prospects careers
I prefer to have a concrete grading system rather than 'I just think player x is better than player y', things tend to get messy after the first few guys in redrafts.

- Differences within tiers are not notable at this stage, a lot depends on the draft fit

- I do think at least 1 of the wings I have in tier 5 (Knecht, Risacher, Furphy, Williams, Buzelis) will hit above my opinion, but I have no idea who lol

- Topic's recent injury spell and just general shakiness/not playing his last few months has caused me to drop him down a tier due to lack of confidence. If he loses his burst via injury he becomes a less enticing prospect.

Tier 3.5 - [fringe All star potential prospect] 2+ DPM potential prospects
1. Donovan Clingan
2. Zach Edey
3. Reed Sheppard
4. Kyle Filipowski

Tier 4 - [starters/impact players]1+ DPM potential prospects
5. Alex Sarr
6. Jared McCain
7. Nikola Topic
8. Rob Dillingham
9. DaRon Holmes II
10. Devin Carter
11. Ron Holland

Tier 5 - [rotation guys/guys that stick around the league] + to neutral DPM potential prospects
12. Dalton Knecht
13. Matas Buzelis
14. Zac Risacher
15. Johnny Furphy
16. Cody Williams
17. Tyler Smith
18. Stephon Castle
19. Kel’el Ware

[Tier 6 - high variance guys]
20. Isaiah Collier
21. Carlton Carrington
22. Jamal Shead
23. Ja’Kobe Walter
24. Baylor Scheierman
25 Jonathan Mogbo

[Fringe guys]
26. Payton Sandfort
27. Alex Karaban
28. KJ Simpson
29. Tyler Kolek
30. Mark Sears

Watkins, da Silva, Missi, Ndongo, Ighodaro, Mitchell, Edwards, Flowers, Nunez, Ajinca, Dadiet, Chomche, Salaun, Bona, Klintman, Grant-Foster, Shannon Jr? Every single one of these guys could go in the first round (or every one could fall well into the 2nd round) yet you don't even have them anywhere? Like, not going to make NBA rosters?

I usually don’t extend past 30 players, for practicality reasons.

The aim of my board is to reflect the VORP of the players in the class. Even 30 players is pushing it in regards to this aim as most drafts produce somewhere between 15 and 25 players that actually stick in the NBA to a relevant degree, I believe the average was around 18 last I looked into it.

So with that in mind, I personally just don’t feel the need to have an opinion on every single eligible player in the draft and continue ranking players into the 40's, 50's and 60's. Drafts do not produce that amount of legit NBA players. So, by the numbers, I would then be ranking players who I'm predicting (based on my own board) won't stick in the NBA.

If they aren’t in my top 30, they aren’t in my top 30. If people want to have top 60’s or top 100’s for fun, that’s totally fine, but to me its impractical and not particularly useful for the aim of my board.

Now, just because I don’t have a prospect listed doesn’t mean I think there isn’t ANY chance they could stick, or that I dislike them as a prospect.

But I have to be realistic about the amount of prospects that actually stick in the NBA from each class, and I can’t keep adding guys even if I like them. I have to make a cut off at some point, or to me that just signals I'm not very confident in my top 30.

If I think a player is likely to go beyond pick 20, basically anywhere from 20 to undrafted, I then have to seriously consider which players I actually think have got a solid chance in this range. Players drafted in this range do not typically get the amount of chances/opportunities that players drafted in the top 20 are afforded by teams.

Anyone not on my list is a prospect I consider unlikely to stick in the NBA, and in most cases; like a lot of the guys you listed, it is because they do not register very highly in the principles I follow for my board. I could potentially go out to 40 total prospects, but I don’t think I will.

As for the guys you listed:

Watkins: Definitely on the fringe of making the 30 for me, I could potentially still place him there
Mitchell: maybe
Salaun: maybe
Bona: maybe
Grant-Foster: maybe
Shannon Jr: maybe
Da Silva: won’t be on my list
Missi: won’t be on my list
Ndongo: won’t be on my list
Ighodaro: won’t be on my list
Edwards: won’t be on my list
Flowers: won’t be on my list
Nunez: won’t be on my list
Ajinca: won’t be on my list
Dadiet: won’t be on my list
Chomche: won’t be on my list
Klintman: won’t be on my list

gotcha. I think it's a very deep draft and feel it's very plausible that there won't be many, if any, drafted players that won't fall into at least one of the following simplified tier-system:

1) starter (1-5)
2) rotational (6-9)
3) end of bench (10-15)

[The Moose]

Post Draft Lottery update:

My main draft principles:
* Production & value impact : BPM, RAPM, WS/48
* Efficiency: TS%
* Feel: AST/TO + efficiency
* Hustle, Impact: (oreb rate, stl rate, block rate)
* Outlier physical traits *
* Outlier feel for the game *

NOTES:

- Aim of my big board: To reflect the VORP over the prospects careers
I prefer to have a concrete grading system rather than 'I just think player x is better than player y', things tend to get messy after the first few guys in redrafts.

- Differences within tiers are not notable at this stage, a lot depends on the draft fit

- Topic's recent injury spell and just general shakiness/not playing his last few months has caused me to drop him down a tier due to lack of confidence. If he loses his burst via injury he becomes a less enticing prospect.

Spoiler:

Tier 3.5 - [fringe All star potential prospect] 2+ DPM potential prospects
1. Donovan Clingan
2. Zach Edey
3. Reed Sheppard
4. Kyle Filipowski

Tier 4 - [starters/impact players]1+ DPM potential prospects
5. Alex Sarr
6. Jared McCain
7. Nikola Topic
8. Rob Dillingham
9. DaRon Holmes II
10. Devin Carter
11. Ron Holland

Tier 5 - [rotation guys/guys that stick around the league] + to neutral DPM potential prospects
12. Dalton Knecht
13. Matas Buzelis
14. Zac Risacher
15. Johnny Furphy
16. Cody Williams
17. Tyler Smith
18. Stephon Castle
19. Kel’el Ware

[Tier 6 - high variance guys]
20. Isaiah Collier
21. Carlton Carrington
22. Jamal Shead
23. Ja’Kobe Walter
24. Baylor Scheierman
25 Jonathan Mogbo

[Fringe guys]
26. Payton Sandfort
27. Alex Karaban
28. KJ Simpson
29. Tyler Kolek
30. Mark Sears

June update, 2nd last update

Tier 3 - [fringe All star potential prospect, 15+ Career VORP] 2+ DPM potential prospects

1. Zach Edey
2. Donovan Clingan
3. Reed Sheppard
4. Kyle Filipowski

Tier 3.5 - [starters/impact players, 10+ Career VORP] 1+ DPM potential prospects

5. Jared McCain
6. DaRon Holmes II
7. Rob Dillingham
8. Nikola Topic
9. Devin Carter

Tier 4/4.5 - [rotation guys/guys that stick around the league, 3+ Career VORP] + to neutral DPM potential prospects

10. Alex Sarr
11. Baylor Scheierman
12. Dalton Knecht
13. Zach Risacher
14. Jonathan Mogbo
15. Ron Holland
16. Matas Buzelis
17. Johnny Furphy
18. Tyler Smith
19. Kel’el Ware
20. Stephon Castle

Outside of the top 20, things usually get very dicey. Only around 20 guys usually in each class end up being worth drafting. Usually 10 or so guys end up sticking in the fringes. So I break it down into 2 categories to round out the fringes , high variance guys (young, bad production but good tools, or elite but flawed production) and low risk guys (older players who produce)

Tier 5 - [high variance guys]

21. Carlton Carrington
22. Isaiah Collier
23. Cody Williams
24. Ja’Kobe Walter
25. Tidjane Salaun

Tier 5 - [productive older guys]

26. Payton Sandfort
27. KJ Simpson
28. Tyler Kolek
29. Dillon Jones
30. N’Faly Dante
31. Jamal Shead
32. Terrence Shannon Jr

[The Moose]

Same logic-

Last update pre draft

Tier 3 - [fringe All star potential prospect, 15+ Career VORP]

1. Zach Edey
2. Reed Sheppard
3. Donovan Clingan
4. Kyle Filipowski

Tier 3.5 - [starters/impact players, 10+ Career VORP]

5. DaRon Holmes II
6. Jared McCain
7. Devin Carter
8. Nikola Topic
9. Rob Dillingham

Tier 4/4.5 - [rotation guys/guys that stick around the league, 3+ Career VORP]

10. Alex Sarr
11. Kel'el Ware
12. Jonathan Mogbo
13. Ron Holland
14. Baylor Scheierman
15. Dalton Knecht
16. Zaccharie Risacher
17. Isaiah Collier
18. Tyler Smith
19. Johnny Furphy
20. Matas Buzelis


Tier 5 - [last 5 in]

21. Stephon Castle
22. Carlton Carrington
23. Jamal Shead
24. KJ Simpson
25. Cody Williams

[The Moose]

Same logic-

Last update pre draft

Tier 3 - [fringe All star potential prospect, 15+ Career VORP]

1. Zach Edey
2. Reed Sheppard
3. Donovan Clingan
4. Kyle Filipowski

Tier 3.5 - [starters/impact players, 10+ Career VORP]

5. DaRon Holmes II
6. Jared McCain
7. Devin Carter
8. Nikola Topic
9. Rob Dillingham

Tier 4/4.5 - [rotation guys/guys that stick around the league, 3+ Career VORP]

10. Alex Sarr
11. Kel'el Ware
12. Jonathan Mogbo
13. Ron Holland
14. Baylor Scheierman
15. Dalton Knecht
16. Zaccharie Risacher
17. Isaiah Collier
18. Tyler Smith
19. Johnny Furphy
20. Matas Buzelis


Tier 5 - [last 5 in]

21. Stephon Castle
22. Carlton Carrington
23. Jamal Shead
24. KJ Simpson
25. Cody Williams

Checking in with roughly 25 games left of the season

Only 8 rookies with a positive VORP so far

1. Edey
2. McCain
3. Ware
4. Clingan
5. Wells
6. Filipowski
7. Mitchell
8. Mogbo

6 of these 8 (Wells, Mitchell) in my top 12. Pretty good hit rate.
Sheppard the obvious big miss so far, we'll see how he pans out.

Two of my top 12 redshirted this season unfortunately, will be tracking Topic and Holmes with next seasons class.

With the benefit of hindsight I would move Castle up one tier. I would probably shift everybody down half a tier in terms of expected VORP too.