TJ's 2011 Mock Draft + Discussion

[teamjosh04]

Just some thoughts for now...

- Harrison Barnes is a stud. He has everything you look for in a wing player. Calling any HS player the next Kobe is premature, but Barnes matched his HS success and shows the same maturity. He should star at UNC and earn his spot as the #1 player in the 2011 draft.

- Perry Jones needs to show some consistency at Baylor. He's getting by on potential alone right now, but he has to show production next year. Right now, he's all hype.

- Enes Kanter looks to be the real deal. I would be shocked if he doesn't end up in the top ten next year.

- I was high on Vesely this year and him returning makes me even more excited. He showed that he cares more about being great than just cashing in as a lottery pick. Right now, he's a top 5 pick. He could go lower as more intriguing offensive threats emerge, but he'll be a very sold NBA player.

- The PG position is deep and is very much up in the air. Lots of guys have lottery potential - Irving, Selby, Walker, Lee, Taylor, Knight, Gaddy, and Joseph.

- Kemba Walker came on strong at the end of last year and I really like him as a prospect. He can be a Jonny Flynn-esque energy/character PG.

- Malcolm Lee has a chance to redeem himself. I'm still a believer, but he can't suffer from another down year - excuses or no excuses.

- Gaddy and McCamey are two PGs that could sneak into the first round. Right now, they aren't getting much love (especially McCamey - #90 on Ford's big board), but I expect that to change as scouts focus in on their games more.

- Three North Carolina guys all could be fighting for a spot in the lottery as one of the top forwards. Production will likely be the tiebreaker between Henson, Leslie, and Plumlee as all have intiguing frames. Plumlee especially needs to step up to prove he's not another Josh McRoberts.

- Small forward crop seems a little weak and overrated besides Barnes. Jeff Taylor, Rodney Williams, Terrence Jones, and Jordan Hamilton all rank ahead of Elias Harris on Ford's draft board. I expect that to change, although, Hamilton is one guy that could jump from the pack into the top 5. He just needs to prove he has some kind of understanding of shot selection. Kris Joseph (ranked #27 on Ford's board) is also a nice to watch. Reggie Bullock (ranked #103) is my super sleeper here - he can fill a role in the NBA as a shooter.

- Patric Young has risen from nowhere to grab #16 on Ford's board. Im a fan too - he is a very hardworking/mature kid who will be a great defender.

- Kenneth Faried, Keith Benson, and Aaric Murray all rank too high for my taste. I wouldnt be surprised if none ended up in the first round. All three will need to really add another dimension to their game next year if they want these rankings to hold true.

- On the flip side of things, less-heralded returning players Chris Singleton, JaJuan Johnson, and Trey Thompkins should climb the board with more exposure. I think all three can end up as worthy first rounders.

- Other underrated sleepers: JaMychal Green (#47), Wally Judge (#60), Brandon Paul (#62), Kenny Boynton (#67), Tobias Harris (#66), Fab Melo (#65), Kevin Jones (#86), Chris Wright (#130 from Georgetown), Seth Curry (#120), Durand Scott (#125), Dominic Cheek (#135), DJ Kennedy (#100), Lavoy Allen (#119), Alex Oriakhi (#107), and Tyler Zeller (#109). Lot of these guys could stay in school, but its hard to believe how low some are ranked. Id definitely keep an eye on them as they are draftable with the right production.

[babyjax13]

I agree with you on JaJuan Johnson - he will be a very good pro.

[BucksRUS]

Just looking at Ford's list I didn't run across a SG until #36. Looks like it could be an even worse draft for SGs than 2010.

[gswhoops]

Hoping the Warriors can walk away with Barnes or Vesely - we need a long term SF.

[teamjosh04]

Just looking at Ford's list I didn't run across a SG until #36. Looks like it could be an even worse draft for SGs than 2010.

Yea, its another bad group. I need to watch more of Leslie and Burks, but they dont seem like can't miss prospects.

After that, you have Nolan Smith, who is just a combo guard/role player. William Buford and Klay Thompson both have first round potential. Thompson needs to contribute more to wins and Buford needs to help fill the void left by Turner. Neither are anything special though.

Boynton and Brandon Paul are both very talented guys - lottery potential - but the had disappointing seasons last year. They are guys to watch out for...if they produce, they could leap frog all the other SGs.

Not a fan of Barton or Hopson. They need to prove they can do more than slash. Dunn and Pullen are simply good college players.

I haven't seen Waiters (Syracuse) play yet, but he apparently impressed at the Jordan Classic. Maybe him, Seth Curry, Durand Scott, or Dominic Cheek could strengthen the class.

Also, I think Kim English could get drafted. He's not even ranked in Ford's top "162", but he's a hardworking with NBA size and range.

[yupitsme]

Gaddy, Lee, Selby, Taylor over Wayns? the only pg in his league is Walker...Irving and Knight have a chance, but they get no respect until they prove something on the college level. and McCamey over Corey Fisher? lmao, he isn't even a PG.

[teamjosh04]

Need to see more of Wayns, but its not like Im the only one who thinks that. Hard to see him making a whole lot of noise this year next to Fisher. Its not like his size and skills make him jump out as a can't miss prospect. Scouts are going to need to see him play PG first before putting trust in him by drafting him.

I'd put Fisher and McCammey in the same range right now - both currently 2nd rounders who could play their way into a 1st round pick. Funny enough, Ford has already moved McCammey up from #90...all the way up to #37. Fisher is at #53. I think they are closer than that.

[teamjosh04]

Thoughts I had Jon Leuer listed as a sleeper - guess not. But he's definitely a guy to look for shooting up draft charts ala Ryan Anderson or Luke Babbitt.

[teamjosh04]

1. Minnesota Timberwolves - FR Harrison Barnes, G/F, North Carolina
2. Toronto Raptors - FR Kyrie Irving, PG, Duke
3. Golden State Warriors - FR Perry Jones, F, Baylor
4. Cleveland Cavaliers - FR Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State
5. Sacramento Kings - FR Brandon Knight, G, Kentucky
6. Philadelphia 76ers - FR Enes Kanter, C, Kentucky
7. Detroit Pistons - 1990 Jan Vesely, F, KK Partizan Belgrade
8. Indiana Pacers - SR Kyle Singler, F, Duke
9. Memphis Grizzlies - 1992 Jonas Valanciunas, F?C, Lietuvos Rytas
10. New Orleans Hornets - FR CJ Leslie, F, North Carolina State
11. Charlotte Bobcats - FR Patric Young, F/C, Florida
12. Los Angeles Clippers - FR Josh Selby, G, Kansas
13. New Jersey Nets - JR Jeff Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt
14. Phoenix Suns - SO Mason Plumlee, PF, Duke
15, Washington Wizards - FR Terrence Jones, SF, Kentucky
16. New York Knicks (to Houston) - JR Marcus Morris, F, Kansas
17. Houston Rockets (to New York) - SO Elias Harris, F, Gonzaga
18. Utah Jazz - SO Kawhi Leonard, F, San Diego State
19. Milwaukee Bucks - JR Chris Singleton, F, Florida State
20. San Antonio Spurs - SO John Henson, F, North Carolina
21. Denver Nuggets - JR Trey Thompkins, PF, Georgia
22. Atlanta Hawks - 1992 Lucas Nogueira, C, MMT Estudiantes
23. Chicago Bulls - 1990 Donatas Motiejunas, PF, Benetton Treviso
24. Boston Celtics - SO Jordan Hamilton, SF, Texas
25. Portland Trailblazers - JR Kemba Walker, PG, Connecticut
26. Dallas Mavericks - JR Klay Thompson, G/F, Washington State
27. Oklahoma City Thunder - SR Kenneth Faried, PF, Morehead State
28. Orlando Magic - FR Corey Joseph, PG, Texas
29. Los Angeles Lakers - SR Nolan Smith, G, Duke
30. Miami Heat (to Toronto) - JR Travis Leslie, SG, Georgia

31. Minnesota Timberwolves (to Miami) - SO Malcolm Lee, G, UCLA
32. Toronto Raptors (to Detroit) - SR JaJuan Johnson, PF, Purdue
33. Golden State Warriors (to New Jersey) - JR Tyshawn Taylor, PG, Kansas
34. Cleveland Cavaliers - JR William Buford, G/F, Ohio State
35. Sacramento Kings - JR Jamychal Green, F/C, Alabama
36. Philadelphia 76ers - FR Fab Melo, C, Syracuse
37. Detroit Pistons (to Clippers) - SO Kris Joseph, SF, Syracuse
38. Indiana Pacers - FR Tristan Thompson, PF, Texas
39. Memphis Grizzlies - SO Renardo Sidney, PF, Mississippi State
40. New Orleans Hornets - 1991 Jeremy Tyler, F/C, Japan
41. Charlotte Bobcats - SR Demetri McCamey, PG, Illinois
42. Los Angeles Clippers (to Houston) - SO Alec Burks, G/F, Colorado
43. New Jersey Nets - SO Abdul Gaddy, PG, Washington
44. Phoenix Suns (to Chicago) - SR Chandler Parsons, SF, Florida
45. Washington Wizards - JR Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina
46. New York Knicks (to Lakers) - FR Josh Smith, C, UCLA
47. Houston Rockets (to Clippers) - SR Corey Fisher, PG, Villanova
48. Utah Jazz (to Golden State) - SO Rodney Williams, F, Minnesota
49. Milwaukee Bucks - SR Kalin Lucas, PG, Michigan State
50. San Antonio Spurs - SR Chris Wright, F, Dayton
51. Denver Nuggets - JR Kevin Jones, PF, West Virginia
52. Atlanta Hawks - JR Wesley Witherspoon, F, Memphis
53. Chicago Bulls (to Sacramento) - 1989 Pablo Aguilar, F, CB Granada
54. Boston Celtics - JR Jamine Peterson, SF, Providence
55. Portland Trailblazers (to Detroit) - SR Keith Benson, C, Oakland
56. Dallas Mavericks - 1989 Robin Benzing, F, Ratiopharm ULM
57. Oklahoma City Thunder (to Cleveland) - SR Jimmer Fredette, G, BYU
58. Orlando Magic - SO Aaric Murray, F/C, LaSalle
59. Los Angeles Lakers - SO Derrick Williams, F, Arizona
60. Miami Heat (to Lakers) - SR DJ Kennedy, SF, St. John's

[teamjosh04]

Notes from last night:

Talib Zanna played well for Pittsburgh. He looked much improved, getting up and down the court fast and hitting the boards. He's a prospect to keep an eye on in the upcoming years as he is only a freshman (redshirted). Not a guy who would likely leave early as he is primarily a role player, but he takes great pride in doing what he does. Hard worker - looks like he has worked on his game since I first saw in play in high school.

Brad Wanamaker is a very well-coached and smart player. He doesnt stand out with physical tools, but know how to score the ball. Needs to get better finishing, but looks to be one of the best players in the nation. Good ball handler.

Gilbert Brown for Pitt had an off game. Has the NBA body, but made a lot of bad plays. Should be more disciplined as a 5th yr senior.

Their opponent's best player was Delroy James (Rhode Island). He's a big wing (6-8) that looks the part and added a 3-pt shot last yr. He was in foul trouble most of the game, but showed some skills. He strong, but may lack the quickness and explosiveness. Interesting to see what kind of numbers he puts up this year.

In Texas, Thompson and Joseph did alright in their debuts. Thompson stood out the most, scoring 10 points in the first half, leading to double teams later in the game. He handled them well for a freshman, although his passing was hit or miss. He seems to have good awareness and smarts though. His post game is far advanced beyond his years, showing poise in the post and a turnaround jumper. He should get a lot of attention this year, as he is clearly Texas's best big man, and perhaps the best freshman big the Big 12 has seen since Beasley.

Jordan Hamilton also showed up for Texas. Here were my notes on him:

- Hamilton still not playing with a team first attitude. He crashes the boards hard, but seemingly with the idea of padding stats.
- Jordan Hamilton receives advice from Ron Artest. Oh, I get it now...
- Hamilton is a DeMar DeRozan clone. Dont know how I didnt make that connection before with his fellow Comton native. I hated DeRozan at USC, although his talent was very obvious just like Hamilton's. Both killed on the boards despite having 0 defensive awareness. Neither know how to rotate or put much effort in on that side of the ball. They would lose their man often and while other times locking in on their man like the were covering Kobe.
- Offensively, DeRozan had the better mid-range game, but Hamilton is a better shooter. His 2pt% should get better this yr. Both eerily similar builds and athleticism.

Hamilton will put up big numbers this year and do well at the combine - easily could go lottery as long as no red flags about personality surface. Wouldnt necessarily want him on my team just like Im not big on DeRozan due to their style not being conducive to winning, but someone will and he'll put up good numbers. Probably not on a winning team though...

By looking at the stats, it doesnt look like McCamey is changing any scouts minds tonight. Only took 5fts while turning it over 5 times. Not helping questions w/ decision making and ability to get to the rim/explosiveness. 5 TOs should at least = more FT attempts. Not the case

[teamjosh04]

1

[teamjosh04]

Friday is the start of the season for most teams. Here are some teams featured on ESPN360 that I'm looking forward to watching...

UConn (vs Stony Brook @7pm)
A lot of people are down on the Huskies this year, but I'm excited to see if this team can gel. They have plenty of talent, although a lot of them have little experience. They are led by Kemba Walker, who really captured my attention last year. He is lightning quick, smart, and has the drive to get better. He knows how to change speeds and excels in transition. He leads by example, showing great effort on the defensive end. He's arguably the best PG in the country.

They have two other wings that people should keep their eyes on. The first player, Jamaal Coombs-McDaniel returns after a disappointing freshman season. This time around, he has a chance to step up and become more of a scorer and all around player. At a long 6-7, he is the slasher type, who would be wise to follow the path of Rip Hamilton.

The other guy to watch out for is Roscoe Smith. I saw Smith play two years ago and was turned on by the amount of intensity he brought to the floor. He played hard on both ends of the court and has some of that toughness associated with Baltimore hoopers. He also has a prototypical NBA body and a developing skill set to match. "[Roscoe Smith] can run and jump but shoots it pretty well, too," Calhoun said. "He's not as athletic as Rudy or Stanley, but who is? I think we're bringing in three really good wings..."

On the inside, Uconn features Alex Oriakhi, who I also saw in HS (saw Coombs-McDaniel too as they were teammates). He has a solid frame that allows him to be a force defensively. He is not an Okafor or Thabeet game changer, but he does block a fair amount of shots and rebounds the ball well. His offensive game was lacking, but I believe he has potential in this areas - particularly with a turnaround jumper. He just needs to develop some lower body strength to balance out his upper body. Down the road he can be a first round draft pick.

Marquette (vs Prarie View A&M @9pm)
Marquette will debut top freshman Vander Blue in this game. He is an elite athlete with a good frame and attitude. He should earn looks from scouts early because of his ability to lock down the opposing team's best perimeter player.

Jimmy Butler is another player to watch. He won't stand out, but he's a great glue guy and role player. He is willing to do anything to help his team, which could help him make an NBA roster as an UDFA - like Wes Matthews did two years ago.

Syracuse (vs Norther Iowa @7pm)
Everyone knows about Kris Joseph, and while it will be interesting to see how he does with defensive attention, I am looking forward to seeing Fab Melo play. Jim Boeheim touted him as a strong candidate for Freshman of the Year. His work ethic is great, as he has reported lost 30-40 pounds over the summer. I think Fab Melo may be a big time sleeper. He sounds like a first rounder to me (maybe even lotto), but he isn't getting any love from draft sites.

Dion Water is another guy to watch out for. He is behind Jardine and Triche on the depth chart, but is the better prospect of the group.

I'll talk about Kentucky, Kansas State, Kansas, Villanova, and Ohio State tomorrow.

[teamjosh04]

Kentucky
It will be the first chance to see this year's Kentucky squad - again a completely different team from the previous year. Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones both have lottery potential this time around. Knight is a pretty good shooter - something the best current PGs lack - but is also very smart and an elite athlete. Players with his all-around talent haven't come around recently - Id compare him to a bigger and more mature Jeff Teague. He's electric in the open court, but the one thing scouts knock him for is his ability to run a half court offense. Since he has been in the national spotlight for so long, his game has been nitpicked over the years, but he can definitely be a good NBA PG.

Terence Jones is a very skilled player, he just needs to mature and find a niche. He reminds me of Donte Greene somewhat. Cal said. "I love him and his game for how I coach; how hard he plays, how he attacks the rim, how he can play inside or out. He doesn't settle for threes, he can rebound and bring the ball up like a point guard, he blocks shots; he's got a lot of skills.

Another player to watch out for is Doron Lamb. He has a great mid-range game for a guy so young.

[vincecarter4pres]

I'm sorry, but even in August that mock was an EPIC fail.

[teamjosh04]

Its pretty foolish to believe you can actually judge that before the season has even started. Do you realize how much rankings change from now up until the time of the draft? Just because I have guys ranked way differently than other draft sites in some cases, doesnt mean anything. The only thing is says is that I actually see all these guys play instead of averaging mock sites together like some guys here do. If everyone has the same 14 guys in the lottery now, they are leaning on the scouting reports of others a lot - which is fine, but not what I do. I take in everything that is written, but I make up my own mind on players.

But anyway, Id be happy to discuss any players' rankings you have a problem with. Id much rather talk basketball than semantics.

[vincecarter4pres]

Its pretty foolish to believe you can actually judge that before the season has even started. Do you realize how much rankings change from now up until the time of the draft? Just because I have guys ranked way differently than other draft sites in some cases, doesnt mean anything. The only thing is says is that I actually see all these guys play instead of averaging mock sites together like some guys here do. If everyone has the same 14 guys in the lottery now, they are leaning on the scouting reports of others a lot - which is fine, but not what I do. I take in everything that is written, but I make up my own mind on players.

But anyway, Id be happy to discuss any players' rankings you have a problem with. Id much rather talk basketball than semantics.

It's a few of the guys you have in the 2nd round that I have a main beef with.

Alec Burks?! Come on dog. It's not impossible, but it's similar to the posters last year that were adamantly touting Evan Turner as a second rounder, fringe 1st at best when it was universally accepted that Turner would have been a top 10 lock if he had declared a year earlier.

Same thing with Triston Thompson and Fab Melo. If these guys were really likely to fall that far, it's pretty much a 112% chance they don't even declare...

And Kyle Singler at 8? Ugh...

Overall your mock isn't that bad, but there are some horrible ones that basically ruin the whole thing.
It's like having a who's a top 50 player this season conversation in August and you putting guys like Andrew Bogut and Danny Granger on the outside looking in and then putting Wilson Chandler at 10th overall.

[teamjosh04]

Alecs Burks definitely should have been higher. He has all the makings of a potential lottery guy. Singler at 8 must have been a matter of fit - not what I think of him. I can see him going lottery because there is always one team that falls in love with a guy like him, but personally I think of him as a late first rounder.

If you read farther down, Im touting Melo and Thompson as possible first rounders. Id rank Thompson in the top 20-25 now and Melo could easily get there if he shows a pulse. For a mock in August, I didnt consider who would stay or leave.

[teamjosh04]

and my mocks are different from my rankings - rankings are based on my opinion only while my mocks take into account player's stock around the league and team needs. Thanks for the feedback.

Thoughts from the games last night:

Alex Oriakhi is a stud. He was so much stronger than Stony Brook's bigs and it showed. He pulled down 17 boards and dunked everything around the basket.

Kemba struggled with his shot early on, but finished the night strong. He'll need to do a better job getting his teammates involved, but with Dyson gone, he knows this is his team and he's asserting himself. His quickness and ball-handling remind me of Mike Conley.

Jeremy Lamb and Roscoe Smith are two nice freshman wings for UConn. Smith is a year away, but Lamb is primed for a good season. He has great length (7+ft wingspan), can shoot it, and create his own shot. Might not be a first round prospect this year, but a definite candidate in years to come.

For Marquette, Jimmy Butler continues to impress as the leader of their defense. He had 3 blocks and 2 steals in an effort that held Prarie View to 23 first half points. He's the type of guy that leads by example and always finds himself in the right place. Smart, hard-working, and willing to do anything for the team. He plays out of position at the 4, but holds his own in the post. He's a senior, without much upside, but he's a possible late 2nd rounder or undrafted FA who could actually make a team. And everyone knows Marquette has had success getting late/undrafted guys on rosters lately (credit to Buzz).

Another guy that looks to be following in Butler's footsteps is freshman Vander Blue. He's a combo guard offensively, but on defense he's simply a defender. Put him on the oppositions best perimeter score and he'll make him work. He had 3 blocks, 4 steals, and 7 boards in only 28 minutes. Great kid who is sure to put in the work to develop his offensive game. He makes good decision on that end already, though, feeding the ball in the post which resulted in 5 assists for him. He could potentially be a first round pick this year, or stay another year or two to prove he can run the point. Kind of like this year's Avery Bradley.

Checked out the Tennessee game today. Tobias Harris played mostly at the PF spot, but played more like a SF. Most of his 18 points came from driving from the perimeter and using his soft touch to score around the hoop or pull up near the paint. His offensive game is solid all-around, but he doesnt excel in one area. He's definitely a SF at the next level, but he will likely struggle defensively. He didnt seem strong defending the post and his rebounding appears to be average at best. Harris is a mid-late first round candidate if he can put up nice numbers, but his athleticism and tweener status will hold him back from the lottery. If he wants to end up in the lottery, he needs to stay a few years and become an All-American performer (which could easy be in his future if he chooses).

[vincecarter4pres]

How do you feel about Dion Waiters?

He's a guy I personally think can explode early and sustain it. He's gonna start off as a complimentary player, but I think he can be a go to starter by midseason and has the makings of a leader.

[teamjosh04]

I watched their game against Northern Iowa until Cuse put the game out of reach. Saw all of Waiters points. He was the only guard that could get anything going and I think he has a good shot at being the top scoring guard out of Scoop and Triche - whether he starts or not. I see them all sharing minutes, getting each at least 25mpg each. Scoop+Triche together just isnt very effective - Waiters gives them another dimension since he can spread the floor. Kris Joseph is ridiculous, though, so I dont see Waiters ending up as the go-to-guy.

Waiters has a lot of room for improvement. He didnt even try to drive to the hoop - he just settled for contested jumpers. His jumpshot is nice (he gets good elevation and can shoot off the dribble), but hes got to get to the hoop in order to be relied on consistently. He has the body for it, I didnt see NBA quickness, but in the college game he should be able to get to the rim. He also didnt move well without the ball. He stood around the arc the whole time calling for the ball. He seems capable of passing, but he definitely has a scorer's mentality/swagger.

Defensively, he appears to be the type that prefers to gamble. He looked slow laterally, but its tough to judge in the 23.

I could see him putting up 12ppg this year, but that wouldnt make him a guaranteed first rounder in my opinion.

Kris Joseph, though, looked spectacular. He might be the best slasher in college. He can get to the rim at anytime. Very quick first step. His crossover isnt bad, but his overall handles need to be tightened up. In college, he can get away with going full speed each time because nobody can stop him, but he will have to learn how to change speeds. His jumpshot looks improved and hes a high character guy. Strong lottery potential.