Post-Lotto Mock with Explanations (update 6/26)

[gswhoops]

6/22/12

1. New Orleans Hornets - Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky

The obvious choice at #1. Unibrow has the potential to be the next KG if he can develop his offensive game, and at worst should be a 15/10 guy with great defense.

2. Charlotte Bobcats - Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina

Rumor has it that Barnes killed his Charlotte workout, and the UNC connection doesn't hurt either. Barnes gives the 'Cats a potential go-to scorer on the wing.

3. Washington Wizards - Bradley Beal, SG, Florida

After the Okafor/Ariza trade, the only big hole in their starting lineup is SG. Not so anymore. Beal can stroke it from deep and should make an excellent backcourt mate for Wall.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky

MKG is a huge upgrade to the Cavs' lackluster wings and should make a perfect second banana for Kyrie Irving. He does everything a team needs to win and is a hard worker with a great attitude. Only question mark is his jumper.

5. Sacramento Kings - Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas

Sacramento should be ecstatic that they're getting their #2 guy at 5. Robinson and Cousins should be a very complimentary and talented PF/C combination for years to come.

6. Portland Trailblazers (from Brooklyn) - Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State

Portland needs a PG and a big man. Lillard supposedly wowed the Blazers brass and owner Paul Allen in his workout, and is a great fit as a scorer and distributer. With a good number of solid big men projected to be available at #11, Portland goes small here

7. Golden State Warriors - Andre Drummond, C, Connecticut

The new GS front office has been preaching size and defense since day 1. Drummond is huge (6-11, 270) and has all the makings of a defensive monster. He's definitely a project, but with Bogut in the fold there won't be a ton of pressure for him to perform from the outset.

8. Toronto Raptors - Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse

Waiters has been steadily rising up draft boards thanks to his athleticism and natural scoring ability. Toronto needs a go-to guy on the perimeter and Waiters has the potential to be that guy.

9. Detroit Pistons - Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois

Leonard has a very interesting combination of size, athleticism, and skills. His size (7-1, 250) would make a fearsome combination with Monroe, and his rebounding and shot-blocking would make him an excellent compliment to their franchise big man.

10. New Orleans Hornets (from Minnesota) - Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina

New Orleans has hinted that they might double down on big men in the lotto, and with Okafor gone and Kaman an impending FA, center is definitely an area of need. Zeller is big and has a polished offensive game - he and AD compliment each other well.

11. Portland Trailblazers - John Henson, PF, North Carolina

Henson is a great shot blocking big man in the mold of Marcus Camby. He's the best combination of fit and value available to the Blazers at this point in the draft.

12. Milwaukee Bucks - Perry Jones III, PF, Baylor

On physical upside alone, Jones should be a top-3 pick. But questions about his motor and jump shot have caused his stock to fall. Perhaps a disciplinarian like Skiles can get his head on straight - and if he does, watch out league.

13. Phoenix Suns - Jeremy Lamb, SG, Connecticut

Phoenix needs a perimeter threat, and Lamb has as much potential as anyone else in the draft in that regard. He should be the starting SG on opening night.

14. Houston Rockets - Moe Harkless, SF, St. John's

Harkless is an athletic defender with a lot of untapped potential, similar to Kawhi Leonard last year. That alone should be enough to warrant a lottery selection, and he fills a need with Houston to boot.

15. Philadelphia Sixers - Arnett Moultrie, PF/C, Mississippi State

Philly said they want to improve their perimeter shooting and interior defense. Moultrie gives them a big, athletic big man to help defend the paint and groom as Brand's replacement.

16. Houston Rockets (from New York) - Fab Melo, C, Syracuse

Big, athletic, shot blockers like Melo are always in high demand. If he pans out, Houston has their first long-term solution at center since Yao's retirement.

17. Dallas Mavericks - Kendall Marshall, PG, North Carolina

With Kidd and Terry hitting the free agent market, the only PG on Dallas' roster has been the disappointing Roddy Beaubois. Marshall is a true floor general and more NBA-ready then most rookie point guards.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Utah) - Terrence Ross, SG/SF, Washington

The Wolves' SG/SFs were atrocious last year. Ross has great measurables and a sweet outside stroke - he should immediately be Minnesota's best wing.

19. Orlando Magic - Royce White, PF, Iowa State

The Magic need to take a risk if they want to have any hope of convincing Dwight to stay. White is immensely talented and could form a great compliment to the big man.

20. Denver Nuggets - Austin Rivers, SG, Duke

Denver doesn't really have any pressing needs, so a high-potential kid like Rivers would be an excellent pick. He would be a solid third guard behind Lawson and Afflalo for the time being.

21. Boston Celtics - Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State

Was a top-10 talent a week ago, but has fallen because of injury concerns and a poor combine performance. Boston will happily take him here, where he can contribute at both PF and C whether or not the big 3 return.

22. Boston Celtics (from LA Clippers) - Terrence Jones, SF/PF, Kentucky

Boston grabs another falling forward with loads of natural talent. Jones can be either a big 3 or a face-up 4, and brings a lot of versatility to the Boston bench.

23. Atlanta Hawks - Festus Ezeli, C, Vanderbilt

Atlanta has needed a true center for years. While Ezeli may be a reach at 23, he’s got great length and considerable upside as a shot blocking/rebounding C.

24. Cleveland Cavaliers (from LA Lakers) - Jeff Taylor, SG/SF, Vanderbilt

Taylor has developed into a lights-out shooter and great defender over his four years at Vandy. Cleveland needs to invest more then one pick in improving their wing situation, and putting an NBA-ready guy like him between Irving and MKG would help both of them immensely.

25. Memphis Grizzlies - Tony Wroten, PG/SG, Washington

Memphis loves big guards, and Wroten has huge upside. He could play next to either Conley or Mayo and be productive.

26. Indiana Pacers - Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky

Collison has been so-so and George Hill is more of a combo guard. Getting a high-potential young PG like Teague this late in the draft would be a steal for Indiana.

27. Miami Heat - Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure

Nicholson is a big man who can hit the three - an ideal young big man to add to the Heat's arsenal. With Mike Miller potentially contemplating retirement, Miami may just want to stock up on shooters.

28. Oklahoma City Thunder - Evan Fournier, SG/SF, Poitiers (France)

Supposedly OKC doesn't want to pay guaranteed money to their pick. Fournier is a good Euro stash.

29. Chicago Bulls - Tyshawn Tyler, PG, Kansas

PG (at least, backup PG) was a need even before Rose went down. Now, it's a critical need. Tyler is experienced and should be able to help out until Rose returns.

30. Golden State Warriors (from San Antonio) - Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor

GS gets a high-potential young SF who could potentially address that position in a year or two. Miller has incredible length and defensive potential. If he can iron out his jump shot he should be a starter for a long time.

[youngthegiant]

rivers falling to denver at 20. I don't think there is any chance that happens but i like it.

[gswhoops]

I don't think he's better then Waiters or Lamb, and Ross is more of a fit for what Minny needs. I guess maybe Dallas would take him and Marshall falls to Orlando, but idk. I'm just not that impressed with Rivers honestly.

[[RCG]]

I think one of the SGs will fall although rumor has it both Rivers and Waiters have promises so I'm thinking maybe Lamb but I do think Rivers has the least potential out of Lamb, Waiters, Rivers, Ross...
I don't see Taylor playing much SG and if the Cavs take MKG I think they'd be better served taking a SG like Will Barton or Doron Lamb.

[tidho]

I agree with the post above, pairing Barton with MKG would make more sense.

On MKG this is literally the worst case scenario for the Cavaliers....and still really isn't so bad. They would be better off with Barnes at the #4 spot though. Knocking down a jumper is their biggest need.

[gswhoops]

Thanks for the input, keep it coming.

[LobCityRondo2KG]

Love it from the Celtics prespective though I don't know if all of Sullinger, Rivers, and T. Jones will drop to 20 or so... If Rivers is there at 18 I could see them trying to move up with Minn and offer some sort of deals with 2013 second rounders (Celtics have 4 next year)

[Cammo101]

Rivers' floor is Phoenix at #13 IMO. Maybe have a soft promise at #10. He could even go #8 if Lambs' shoulder scares off Toronto.

[gswhoops]

I don't get this Rivers love - Cammo, you seem to be pretty in tune with draft rumors...what do people see in him?

[Cammo101]

I don't get this Rivers love - Cammo, you seem to be pretty in tune with draft rumors...what do people see in him?

A shooting guard who can shoot and get to the basket. How many of those are there in the NBA right now?

I tend to agree that Rivers may be somewhat overrated, but the NBA is not exactly littered with quality SG's. He looks like a poor man's Kobe, and most teams picking after 6 or so are happy to have a poor man's Kobe.

I think position scarcity is why all the SG's seem to be rising in this draft. Beal, Waiters, and Rivers are all looking like they will be overdrafted. Most likely because so many teams have need at the SG spot.

[gswhoops]

6/26 - Explanations for new picks only

1. New Orleans Hornets - Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky
2. Charlotte Bobcats - Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina
3. Washington Wizards - Bradley Beal, SG, Florida
4. Cleveland Cavaliers - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky
5. Sacramento Kings - Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas
6. Portland Trailblazers (from Brooklyn) - Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State
7. Golden State Warriors - Andre Drummond, C, Connecticut
8. Toronto Raptors - Austin Rivers, SG, Duke

If Rivers has a lotto promise, I think the Raptors make the most sense. They need a lead guard who can take over games, especially one who can shoot from outside, and Rivers can certainly do that.

9. Detroit Pistons - John Henson, PF, North Carolina

The more I see teams trying to move up interested in Henson, the more I start to believe the hype. Where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire. Henson provides a good fit as a shot blocking big next to Monroe.

10. New Orleans Hornets (from Minnesota) - Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois

Rather then the safe but limited upside Zeller, I think the Hornets go with the athletic phenom Leonard here. He and Davis could form an incredible defensive PF/C combo.

11. Portland Trailblazers - Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina

Zeller and Aldridge will be a great high/low post combo for the Blazers, and take a lot of pressure off their new PG Lillard.

12. Milwaukee Bucks - Perry Jones III, PF, Baylor
13. Phoenix Suns - Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse

If Rivers’ promise comes from Toronto, Waiters’ probably comes from Phoenix. They could use a guard who can get into the paint, which is Rivers’ specialty.

14. Houston Rockets - Jeremy Lamb, SG, Connecticut

Lamb has as much potential as anyone in this draft aside from Anthony Davis, but a lot of nagging questions about his game. Houston will gladly snap him up here to groom behind Martin and Lee.

15. Philadelphia Sixers - Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State

Rumor has it the Sixers are interested in the Buckeye bigman. He would certainly make a talented replacement for the expiring Elton Brand.

16. Houston Rockets (from New York) - Fab Melo, C, Syracuse
17. Dallas Mavericks - Kendall Marshall, PG, North Carolina
18. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Utah) - Terrence Ross, SG/SF, Washington
19. Orlando Magic - Moe Harkless, SF, St. John’s

Harkless is a high-upside young swingman who would fit in well with or without Dwight in Orlando. His athleticism and defense would be a major upgrade over guys like Hedo and Q-Rich.

20. Denver Nuggets - Royce White, PF, Iowa State

White is a versatile and talented young forward who should be able to find a spot behind/with Gallinari and Faried in their frontcourt.

21. Boston Celtics - Arnett Moultrie, PF/C, Mississippi State

Moultrie is an athletic young big man - something the Celtics desperately need to spell Garnett and compete with the other big teams in the East.

22. Boston Celtics (from LA Clippers) - Terrence Jones, SF/PF, Kentucky
23. Atlanta Hawks - Festus Ezeli, C, Vanderbilt
24. Cleveland Cavaliers (from LA Lakers) - Doron Lamb, SG, Kentucky

The Cavaliers grab MKG’s teammate Lamb to pair with Irving in the backcourt. His outside shooting will go a long way to help them improve.

25. Memphis Grizzlies - Tony Wroten, PG/SG, Washington
26. Indiana Pacers - Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky
27. Miami Heat - Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure
28. Oklahoma City Thunder - Jeff Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt

Oklahoma City could definitely use an NBA-ready back up for Durant. Taylor can defend and shoot the 3 ball well - should be a good fit. I expect this pick to get traded.

29. Chicago Bulls - Tyshawn Taylor, PG, Kansas
30. Golden State Warriors (from San Antonio) - Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor

[gswhoops]

Damnit, I do an update last night then find out this morning that Minnesota traded the #18 pick. Back to the drawing board.