RealGM

Note: Included are "Tiers", which are a rough approximation of where I see the draft falling off noticeably. That doesn't mean that some players in lower tiers don't have more potential/skill than players in higher tiers. Bolded players are ones I see as potential steals relative to their draft position. You won't see any of that in the lottery.

-----1st Round-----
[Tier 1]
(1) Minnesota: Karl Towns
Watching a few more games this season I have come to appreciate Towns' skill set quite a bit more. He is a fluid athlete for being 7'-0", has really soft hands and his post game is improving. He has a feathery touch, and his jumper is reliable out to 18 feet. Needs to work on his offensive game down low. While he can spread the court, pass the ball and has a nice jump-hook he isn't all that refined with his back to the basket. Most of his success in that area in the college game has come from simply being more physical than the other team. In the NBA he won't have the type of size mismatches that he has taken advantage of in the college game.
Other Picks: Robert Upshaw, Timothe Luwawu

(2) LA Lakers: Jahlil Okafor
Great awareness in the post and tremendous low post moves and footwork. Has a lot of skills in common with Al Jefferson, but Okafor is much quicker with his post moves and better at passing out of the double team. For all of the awareness and fluidity on offense, defensively he is a mixed bag. With solid measurements he seems like he should be an above average, but he appears to be subpar as an NBA defender. I don't think there is any question that he routinely averages 18-22ppg or more throughout his career (barring injuries). As much of a sure thing as Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker were last year.
Other Picks: Rashad Vaughn, Christian Wood

(3) Philadelphia: D'Angelo Russell
Very good shooter, very good passer, struggles to finish at the rim [EDIT: his FG% at the rim keeps rising, so I'm not sure this is a valid criticism anymore]. I question if he has the ball handling abilities to effectively play point guard, or the athleticism to guard players like Alec Burks, DeMarr DeRozan, etc. A bit in between positions, but has some tantalizing skills.
Other Picks: Anthony Brown, Nikola Mulitonov, Daniel Diez, Aaron White, Nikola Radicevic

(4) New York: Kristaps Porzingas
He can put the ball on the floor very well for someone north of 6-11. Is a threat all the way out to the three point line, and is mobile enough to play power forward. Extremely active and mobile, but that comes at the cost of having a body made of toothpicks. Moves like Andrei Kirilenko, has good anticipation blocking shots. Can score in the post, but needs to add strength. His length makes a lot of his moves look unpolished and awkward, but still has a solid repertoire inside. Tremendous concerns with him coming into the draft, but the upside is huge.
Other Picks: None

[Tier 2]
(5) Orlando: Justice Winslow
Winslow vs. Johnson is going to be a big debate on draft day. Both have great physical profiles, both are great defenders, and both can spread the floor. Johnson is just a little bit more athletic, and a bit better of a defender when he puts his mind to it (although I think Winslow will end up being a better defender in the NBA). But anyone who ends up with Winslow is looking at a player that can have a positive impact for years to come. I think Orlando in particular is a great fit for both Winslow and Johnson.
Other Picks: Satam Singh

(6) Sacramento: Mario Hezonja
Physically, he is a freak. Great length, tremendous speed and leaping ability in the open floor. A creative scorer who can pull up from anywhere on the floor (although I think he needs to speed up his release a bit and work on consistently setting his feet). Has a decent floater, and with some added weight would be able to finish well in traffic (already does an admirable job). Ball handling is acceptable, but that is the part of his game that needs the most improvement. He stays very upright when driving to the basket, and that will lead to turnovers in the NBA. This is something that is correctable, though. Seems like a very emotional player on the court, which in my mind is a good thing.
Other Picks: None

(7) Denver: Emmanuel Mudiay
His athleticism from the point guard position is above average. Haven't gotten a chance to see much of him. Shooting form could use some improvement. I'm not sure that I can properly evaluate his defense at this stage. Has all the physical tools, but I think he takes quite a few risks on defense that won't work in the NBA. Sometimes gets blinders on and take bullheaded shots or drives to the basket when he should kick the ball out, but I'm not particularly concerned about those flaws.
Other Picks: Norman Powell

(8) Detroit: Stanley Johnson
Johnson has some amazing physical tools, and is a solid all around player at this point. Very uncreative with his driving, mainly just goes in a straight line, just like DeRozan when he came out. Defensively he would be above average on day one, and he isn't a liability of offense, although he isn't a huge asset on that side of the ball, either. If he has the same career trajectory as DeRozan, though, I think his upside is higher. The fact that he already can spread the floor effectively is really promising. I don't know if he can be a franchise player, but I think is downside is an elite glue-guy (think very good 6th man).
Other Picks: Richaun Holmes

(9) Charlotte: Willie Cauley-Stein
Through three years of college he still has not learned how to roll the right direction on a pick and roll, shoot a jumper, or do anything on offense besides catch lobs and put back shots. His increased freethrow percentages are promising, but his offensive game will always be based around athletecism. Defensively, though, is where he shines. Great anticipation blocking shots, tremendous athlete, positions himself well for rebounds. Extremely mobile and disruptive. With players in the mold of Tyson Chandler, Rudy Gobert, Hassan Whiteside and DeAndre Jordan gaining more favor in the league, Cauley-Stein is a perfect candidate for four out basketball and a great building block for any team. [I am predicting someone moves up for WCS if he drops]. Other Picks: None

[Tier 3]

(10) Miami: Devin Booker
Booker enters the draft as probably the highest quality low-usage player available. That is, he does not need many touches to be productive. His primary skill is obviously his three point shooting. He has a smooth release and good range on his jump shot. Athletically, he is average for an NBA guard, but his style of play doesn't require him to be a dynamic athlete. I see RJ Hunter as a better pro because he can do more things on offense, but I really like both prospects.
Other Picks: Rakeem Christmas

(11) Indiana: Myles Turner
Underdeveloped with his back to the basket. Slow footed, but nimble enough to play center in the NBA. Good shooter with nice form. I think Kaminsky is the FAR superior player and will end up being the better NBA pro, but Turner is a guy that I see being successful enough to stick.
Other Picks: Arturas Gudaitis

(12) Utah: Frank Kaminsky
Kaminsky can do basically everything. He can put the ball on the floor, get has good post moves, can play back to the basket, understands how to run the pick and roll and knows when to shoot and when to pass. He reminds me of Mehmet Okur, but Kaminsky is more fluid. I'm really excited to see him in the NBA and I think he will be a VERY good pro for years to come, possibly an all star type player.
Other Picks: Michael Frazier, Josh Richardson

(13) Phoenix: Trey Lyles
Skilled 4 that has decent range and great passing instincts. I think that he could play at center in a small ball lineup without issues and if he expands his range to three point territory you are looking at bigger David West.
Other Picks: None

(14) Oklahoma City: Kelly Oubre
Oubre has a very good stroke, is disruptive on defense, can finish at the rim creatively, is a tremendous athlete, a good rebounder and hustles for 50/50 balls. I don't know if he can be an elite scorer, but I think he can be a very good second option that spreads the floor and puts pressure on defenses to stop him from getting to the rim. Improving his ball handling and putting on more muscle mass is critical. Watch for him to rise as draft day gets closer.
Other Picks: Pat Connaughton

(15) Atlanta (via Brooklyn): Rondea Hollis-Jefferson
If he isn't the best perimeter defender in college basketball, he is certainly top three. A tremendous athlete who can finish well at the rim. Jefferson has a somewhat well-developed back to the basket game because he plays some power forward for Arizona. Great in transition. Just an average ball handler (maybe a bit below average), his athleticism still allows him to get to the rim on drives. I think that offensively he is a little more polished than Micheal Kidd-Ghilchrist, but not by much. If he is able to add a somewhat reliable jumper (read 30-34% from 3) he could be a great core piece for a developing team. Even without developing it, though, a team with a stretch four and other perimeter players that can reliably hit a three pointer could utilize his ability to cut to the basket.
Other Picks: Shawn Dawson, Brandon Ashley

(16) Boston: Cameron Payne
Other Picks: Jonathen Holmes, Dakari Johnson, Cedi Osman

(17) Milwaukee: Bobby Portis
Portis is a sold back to the basket player and can hit the midrange jumper at a decent clip. Based on that, he should be a top 18 pick or so, but...he is glacially slow.
Other Picks: Michael Quallis

(18) Houston (via New Orleans): Delon Wright
Great at penetrating into the lane and finishing over length/with contact. Wright is a well developed player who has the potential to be a solid starter. He is a very good ball handler with average vision for a point guard. His jumper is good enough that he can't be left open, but this isn't his bread and butter. Wright is an excellent defender. He averages two steals and one block from the point gaurd position, and he is also a good rebounder for a point guard.
Other Picks: Chris McCullough

[Tier 4]

(19) Washington: Montrezl Harrell
Extremely high motor, decent mechanics on his jumper for a power forward whose primary role will probably be scoring off of dropoffs, lobs and putbacks. Lots of people compare him to Kenneth Faried, but I don't think Harrell has that kind of talent (but his motor is just as high, if not higher on defense). Measurements at the combine may push him higher.
Other Picks: Joseph Young

(20) Toronto: RJ Hunter
Jacks up some absolutely horrifying shots, and I don't know if it is basketball IQ, or the quality of talent around him. When he isn't throwing up those prayers, he shows interesting potential as a good catch and shoot player, distributor and ball handler. I really think that in the right system with good coaching to help him play to his strengths, Hunter can become a very good player in the league. I think that he should be a lottery pick.
Other Picks: None

(21) Dallas: Jerian Grant
Probably one of the most underrated prospects in this draft. Grant is a very good athlete, with great ball handling skills, great passing skills and an innate ability to get to the rim. Jumper isn't the greatest, but he can't be left open, either. Very good defender who uses his length to his advantage. Coming into the NBA he will need to add to his upper body strength in order to continue finishing at the rim. Very elusive with the ball, reminds me of Dwayne Wade/Manu Ginobili in many aspects of his game. I do not think he is a point guard, I think he is a shooting guard who can initiate an offense at times. Should be considered in the draft as early as 5th.
Other Picks: Tyler Harvey

(22) Chicago: Kevon Looney
I've had a change of heart with Looney. He is really inconsistent and has a decent ability to spread the floor, but he is really underdeveloped offensively and tends to disappear in games. For a team that needs a backup power forward with a decent motor that stretches the floor a bit, Looney is perfect (see Patrick Patterson). Sometimes he shows flashes. If he can tighten up his handle and still be successful driving to the hoops and if he has a good work ethic, I think he can be good. With his physical attributes and shooting ability he should be able to crack the rotation of whatever team he is on, and I wouldn't be surprised if his name is called as early as 11. Whatever team he is on should make him watch a lot of Antawn Jamison on offense.
Other Picks: None

(23) Portland: Sam Dekker
Pretty solid shooter, can drive to the rim and finish, but also incredibly inconsistent. Really fades from games. In the mold of Danillo Gallinari as far as his ability to move the ball to open teammates, innitiate an offense and score from the perimeter, also very good at moving off the ball. If a team can motivate him to be more aggressive, he could be a steal late in the draft. Defensively, he is just a mess. Understanding that and surrounding him with better defenders would make him a net positive for almost any team, as long as he plays aggressively.
Other Picks: None

(24) Cleveland: Justin Anderson
Other Picks: Alpha Kaba

(25) Memphis: Jarrell Martin
Other Picks: None

(26) San Antonio: Jordan Mickey
Other Picks: Vince Hunter

(27) LA Lakers (via Houston): Rashad Vaughn

(28) Boston (via LAC): Jonathen Holmes

(29) Brooklyn (via Atlanta): Tyus Jones
One of the best point guards in the country. He is great at penetrating and creating shots for perimeter players, or throwing lobs and entry passes for post players. Being in a well balanced system like Duke's makes him fairly NBA ready from the start, and he is much more of a true point than Wright. He really reminds me of Mike Conley in college, although his size raises some concerns.
Other Picks: Andrew Harrison

(30) Golden State: Terry Rozier
Other Picks: None

-----2nd Round-----
(31) Minnesota: Robert Upshaw
(32) Houston: Chris McCullough
(33) Boston: Cliff Alexander
(34) LA Lakers: Christian Wood
(35) Philadelphia: Anthony Brown
(36) Minnesota: Timothe Luwawu
(37) Philadelphia: Nikola Milutinov
(38) Detroit: Richaun Holmes
(39) New Orleans: Mouhammadou Jaiteh
Other Picks: Larry Nance Jr.
(40) Miami: Rakeem Christmas
(41) Brooklyn: Andrew Harrison
(42) Utah: Michael Frazier
(43) Indiana: Arturas Gudaitis
(44) Phoenix: JP Tokoto
(45) Boston: Cedi Osman
(46) Milwaukee: Michael Qualls
(47) Philadelphia: Daniel Diez
(48) Oklahoma City: Pat Connaughton
(49) Washington: Joseph Young
(50) Atlanta: Shawn Dawson
(51) Orlando: Satam Singh
(52) Dallas: Tyler Harvey
(53) Cleveland: Alpha Kaba
(54) Utah: Josh Richardson
(55) San Antonio: Vince Hunter
(56) New Orleans: Larry Nance Jr.
(57) Denver: Norman Powell
(58) Philadelphia: Aaron White
(59) Atlanta: Brandon Ashley
(60) Philadelphia: Nikola Radicevic

Others: Alan Williams, Quinn Cook

Big Board
(1) Karl Towns
(2) Jahlil Okafor
(3) Kristaps Porzingas
(4) D'Angelo Russel
(5) Mario Henzonja
(6) Justice Winslow
(7) Frank Kaminsky
(8) Emmanuel Mudiay
(9) Willey Cauley-Stein
(10) RJ Hunter
(11) Devin Booker
(12) Rondea Hollis-Jefferson
(13) Stanley Johnson
(14) Miles Turner
(15) Justin Anderson
(16) Jerian Grant
(17) Rashad Vaughn
(18) Jordan Mickey
(19) Cameron Payne
(20) Trey Lyles
(21) Kevon Looney
(22) Delon Wright
(23) Sam Dekker
(24) Robert Upshaw
(25) Tyus Jones
(26) Montrezl Harrell
(27) Chris McCullough
(28) Jonathen Holmes
(29) Terry Rozier
(30) Michael Frazier

Frank Kaminsky 5th overall? Care to explain that one?

HeartBreakKid wrote:Frank Kaminsky 5th overall? Care to explain that one?

He can score with his back to the basket fairly efficiently, can face up and score, and can hit threes like a guard. He reminds me of Mehmet Okur, but with a better faceup game, and I think better shooting. I'm aware that most mocks have him (at best) in the tail end of the lottery, but at this point, this is my big board. I have limited exposure to a lot of these prospects so far, but I've watched Kaminsky many times and been impressed every single time. He is a really unique prospect, his upside is probably about a 20-22ppg kind of player, and I think a realistic expectation is that he is a 17-19ppg and 8rpg kind of guy throughout his career. Someone who can do that, and stretch the defense while still remaining a legitimate threat if they are in the post is rare. Right now, Dirk and Aldridge are probably the only players with that kind of skillset (I don't think Kaminsky will be to their level, but expecting him to be right around where Okur was is realistic).

I would take Porzingis, Johnson, Turner over Kaminsky most definitely right now.

Bump.

Updated.

If RJ Hunter goes 6 spots ahead of Frank Kaminsky, I will eat my shoe. Hunter and Dakari Johnson feel way too high, Kaminsky and Myles Turner too low IMO.

Also, where is Cam Payne?

Cammo101 wrote:If RJ Hunter goes 6 spots ahead of Frank Kaminsky, I will eat my shoe. Hunter and Dakari Johnson feel way too high, Kaminsky and Myles Turner too low IMO.

(1) Kaminsky
I think it is pretty well established that he is one of my favorite players in the draft, but it also seems that there are is a small amount of teams where he fits perfectly. Phoenix? Utah? Houston? Detroit? He's in the Channing Frye/Mehmet Okur mold, and I think teams are going to want to pair him with a good rim protector. And do those teams really need another big?

(2) RJ Hunter
I think the Jazz are going to draft the best shooter available at their spot, preferably a 2 guard. In their range that is Oubre and Booker. IMO, Hunter projects to be just as good as a catch and shoot player as Booker, but I think he has some skills on offense that Booker lacks. He is projected further down in most mocks, but for a team like the Jazz he makes a ton of sense, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him rise (and there always seems to be 1 player taken in the lottery that isn't projected there, in my mock it is him).

(3) Dakari is kind of a holdover. The center position at the top of this draft is really great, but it falls of quickly. If a team at the end of the 1st needs a center he could be the BPA (I've dropped him to the second round, though).

(4) Turner
I'm not a huge fan, but I wouldn't be surprised if he got picked much earlier than where I have him. I toyed with the idea of having him go where WCS is, and having Stein drop 2 or 3 picks.

(5) Payne
I've moved him to the end of the first round, but I really don't know how to gauge what he brings. Apparently Indiana is interested in him, and his stats indicate he should be higher. Really wish Murray State had been in the tourney.

If Booker is gone and Presti can't trade up for Winslow, I would not be surprised if he traded out of the draft. Having said that, Grant and even Anderson are also possibilities.

But while I'm hearing a lot of good things about Grant, Augustine played great as backup PG and, as importantly, embraced his role. And Christon had a very good NBADL season. He is well positioned to compete for the #3 PG spot.

At SG, even though we've got Abrines stashed away, I really like Anderson's game. Especially if he drains threes in workouts. Too bad he got hurt at the end of last season. He was playing well and Virginia was winning games.

Bottom line, our biggest priority is finding a two way SG. Maybe Donovan thinks he's already got one on the roster? We got six guys at that spot. Seven if you count Singler. Personally, I'd like to see Lamb get a legit shot at it. For some reason Brooks hated the guy. Anyway, with 19 potential guys on the roster, Presti is going to need to sort this out before the season starts.

Updated for lottery.

Also, Caris LaVert went back to school.

babyjax13 wrote:Updated for lottery.

I'm happy with most of the Jazz prospects at #12.

Hunter would puzzle me over a guy like Kamiskey though, especially since a stretch big is the Jazz's biggest need. I'm not for drafting need over talent, but in this case I don't believe that would be the case.

this is so bad
wtf.

I would doubt we would go Turner at 9. Just does not make much sense. The pick is more likely to be Johnson in your mock setup.

jdm3 wrote:I would doubt we would go Turner at 9. Just does not make much sense. The pick is more likely to be Johnson in your mock setup.

Do you think Al Jefferson stays? Because I originally had Johnson in that spot, but it seems like Turner could be more useful in the future if Jefferson isn't going to be staying. And there is always the Lance Stephanson issue. If they don't plan on moving him, is a third wing really what Charlotte needs?

Nate505 wrote:

babyjax13 wrote:Updated for lottery.

I'm happy with most of the Jazz prospects at #12.

Hunter would puzzle me over a guy like Kamiskey though, especially since a stretch big is the Jazz's biggest need. I'm not for drafting need over talent, but in this case I don't believe that would be the case.

I don't think that is really Utah's biggest need. Would I be shocked or disappointed if Kaminsky were the pick? No, but we need the best shooter we can get...and that might be Hunter. Booker has been just fine as our backup 4, and we just need some depth behind Favors and Gobert at the 5...we could easily find that in free agency. We will see, I might change my mind as the draft approaches.

teleblaze wrote:this is so bad
wtf.

You could tell me why you think it is bad...although it might be a little early to make that call.

babyjax13 wrote:

jdm3 wrote:I would doubt we would go Turner at 9. Just does not make much sense. The pick is more likely to be Johnson in your mock setup.

Do you think Al Jefferson stays? Because I originally had Johnson in that spot, but it seems like Turner could be more useful in the future if Jefferson isn't going to be staying. And there is always the Lance Stephanson issue. If they don't plan on moving him, is a third wing really what Charlotte needs?

Most Hornets fans want Al to opt out and to keep Biyombo. Biz is a better fit with the roster and the team performed better as a whole with him starting before his injury mid-season, which is when Al took back over. We'd ideally bring in another vet big that isn't undersized (a la Maxiell) for depth and also give spot minutes at the 5 to Zeller/Vonleh.

Johnson may initially be a third wing for us, but we currently only have one on the roster that's worth a ****. Conversely we at least have some decent big man prospects.

babyjax13 wrote:

jdm3 wrote:I would doubt we would go Turner at 9. Just does not make much sense. The pick is more likely to be Johnson in your mock setup.

Do you think Al Jefferson stays? Because I originally had Johnson in that spot, but it seems like Turner could be more useful in the future if Jefferson isn't going to be staying. And there is always the Lance Stephanson issue. If they don't plan on moving him, is a third wing really what Charlotte needs?

I think Al is gone after this season and wish he would go ahead and opt out now. I think Biz works well for what we do and have no interest in Turner. I am not a huge fan of WCS either for our team.