this is a bit of a more data driven approach to the draft... i have seen at least a little of all these guys playing though so some subjectivity is thrown into the mix but only when at the margins....
i base these off some simple criteria 2p fg% pts per 40, rebounds per 40, stls and blocks per 40, a/to and TOs per 40.. there are others that i use to distinguish between prospects that are close... such as conference play and strength of schedule and physical markers.. this is not too different than what ed weiland does at hoopsanalyst.com who some of you may remember calling jeremy lin among many others.. he does outstanding work on the draft... the reason why i love his methodology is because it's simple, it's historically proven and really the hardest thing to do apparently is to find players who are even able to play in the nba which his model filters out well...
This is a great draft... and has loads of interesting prospects... i would say this is better than last year's by a mile... lots of solid role player types and some guys who have potential to be a lot more...
Here's the list:
Cornerstones
1. Karl Anthony Towns - great block rates on a team of decent big men.... with solid prospects all around the frontcourt he manages to standout which is a very good sign for him... kentucky #1 in def eff when they were #46 last year... still he's not without warts.. 2p fg% is a bit low for an elite center prospect which he will have to improve upon the rest of the season but offense is something that has a tendency to improve in young prospects... sharing the court with bigs who clog the paint probably don't help either... best two way center in the draft...
2. DeAngelo Russell - best sg prospect since harden... outstanding ballhandling and shooting skills and no major red flags... FTr could be better but is fine as it stands... his athleticism is his only question mark but plenty of players have thrived with just 'ok tools'... curry, ginobilli, pierce, lillard just to name a handful... the guy is a baller...
he'll be useful from the get go and i expect him to challenge harden and klay for best sg in the league in a couple of years...
3. Jahlil Okafor - The positives: He is an elite offensive player... there hasn't been a big man who's dominated the inside to this extent in i don't know how long because it hasn't happened... 2p fg% on a lot of shots bodes well for him in the pros and excellent board rates... the negatives: defense... for a center.. is a very big deal... it's the difference between being like the spurs with duncan or the magic with vucevic.. and this is something he will need to improve upon fairly quickly or else teams will have a very hard time to pair him with someone ... he compares very favorably to guys like malone and barkley and malone had to be paired with guys like eaton and ostertag ... barkley had solid bigs in mark west and oliver miller behind him on his only great teams.... ostertag funny enough comes up as a favorable comp/outlier for his defense... fresh/soph years had low block rates but improved enough to be somewhat decent his junior/senior years... time will tell but the offense is too good to drop him down too far...
Elite PGs
4. Delon Wright - about as good a pg prospect the college game has seen in years... if it wasn't for his age he'd be in contention for #1 but being a senior isn't a death knell since nash, payton and a host of others left college as seniors... he'll be very good from day 1... 3p fg% is a small concern... improvements from junior yr and FT% points to him at least being a good spot up shooter...
5. Emmanuel Mudiay - i go back and forth whether to rate Mudiay over Wright... and it has everything to do with his shooting ability and what his china stats mean.... i don't have any good translations but will bynum who was something of a decent to mediocre reserve has better numbers across the board after replacing Mudiay in the lineup... Scouts love him but i'm a bit more cautious given his troubles at the line... it could go either way if he ever improves... baron davis, rajon rondo are favorable/unfavorable comps.. this ranking is more a compromise between what the scouts and the numbers say...
The Interesting Role Players
6. Bobby Portis - everything screams very solid pf prospect.. esp in today's nba and that he has the ability to shoot the 3... if markieff morris was a little bigger.. you would have bobby portis... nothing jumps off the page but he clears all the markers comfortably that say he belongs as a solid starter... that has tremendous value...
7. Christian Wood - is putting up monster numbers and i wonder if the rest of the mocks and scouts will ever catch up to what he is doing... he has a bit of an awkward looking face up game but the steals/blocks/boards numbers point to a prospect ready to handle the nba from an athletic standpoint... what his role will eventually be is another question but he's proven he can handle a scoring load at the college level.. albeit against soso competition... he'll have to figure it out in the pros but odds are good that he will... this is another example where the numbers and the scouts disagree a bit so i split the difference a little... numbers say he belongs in the top 3...
8. Jerian Grant - another very good senior pg... doesn't have the shooting questions as delon has but delon has superior block rates which means his numbers will probably translate better... still jerian has answered all questions and deserves lottery attention himself...
9. Jakob Poeltl - don't think he will declare but if he did he would be here and a strong chance at #1 next year... Utah #6 defense... only blemish is a declining block rate in conference play but not sure if it's because defenses are avoiding the paint because of him...
10. Cliff Alexander - He's small for a center but he's been very productive on a good team against a tough schedule... his size limits his upside in that he might not be given ample opportunity but he has posted great numbers across the board including blocks which should answer questions about whether he can handle at least some defensive responsibilites... he's a bit unconventional but he should be able to find a role somewhere... poor man's elton brand?
11. Kelly Oubre - started off very weak like off the radar weak but has come on in conference play in a very tough conference.. the defensive numbers have put him ahead of Stanley Johnson for now but he's been the one prospect that has steadily improved as the year has gone on and by the end of the year it should be clear he's the best wing prospect...
12. Stanley Johnson - lot of people compare him to artest and the visual comparisons are there but the defensive numbers aren't... non-existant block rates point to a soso athlete... still.. he looks like a more shooting, less defense version of artest...
13. Kris Dunn - highly regarded prep player coming on after injuries plagued his college career thus far... he's more a gunner than the other pg's listed and doesn't have the size as delon or jerian have but should be a fine pg in his own right...
14. Myles Turner - the good: great block rates, good board rates against a tough conference.. the bad.. horrible 2pfg% which point to his inability to score inside... some say he likes to float on the perimeter but it's more that he can only get his points from out there... usually this is a very bad sign for a center but the hope is that some team can reign him in on offense while making use of his other talents...
15. Willie Cauley Stein - a defensive big with some defensive question marks... some dings here are kentucky's defensive rankings the past two years before towns came aboard and limited offense... he's been fine in a low usage role for years at kentucky and that's probably what he'll end up in the pros.. lack of progress in any part of his game is concerning and reports of him being not in love with basketball are more alarming...but he could be a very decent defensive big man as it stands... that alone is worth a ton...
The Tweeners
16. Terry Rozier - athletically gifted combo guard and something like a souped up lou williams.... probably a very good sixth man type in the pros..
17. Kristaps Porzingis - He is another prospect that grades out much better at another position which is SF... he is a tweener as it stands because of the low rebound rate... defensive numbers look good for the league he is in and his age... he is still something like a poor man's danilo gallinari and he struggled to post rebounding numbers that would have made him a fine stretch 4 but instead something of an ok SF at his peak...
18. Jordan Mickey - another fine player with questions about size... the average 2pt fg% point to possible trouble in the pros here as they are warranted... but he's an active player that can hang in the league athletically... he will need to find an outside shot or else he'll probably won't be more than a low minute guy off the bench...
19. Rondae-Hollis Jefferson - very similar to Aaron Gordon last year... just a limited offensive game but looks like he belongs from an athletic perspective... he's behind mickey because there are a ton of SFs who aren't as limited as Rondae so he has a higher bar to climb...
By now these are 19 fine prospects that probably deserved lottery attention if we compare them to last year's crop... this draft is that good and deep...
20. Frank Kaminskey - this about where the talent drops off... some people love him but low defensive numbers point to a stretch 5 off the bench type... which is pretty useful in it's own right... danny ferry is the comp here...
21. Rakeem Christmas - Finally putting together a great season altho players who all of a sudden come on in their senior year are a bit of a red flag but it's better than not coming on at all...
22. Dakari Johnson - Same issues as Stein except without the elite block numbers... has better growth potential on the offensive side than stein...
23. Trey Lyles - A mystery given the big man rotation... defensive numbers are just not there for a good prospect but you can maybe explain some of that away with the presence of the other Kentucky bigs... should stay another year to sort that out...
24. Justise Winslow - The 2p fg% is a major red flag and he'll need to improve his inside scoring the rest of the season to be considered something more than a shooter off the bench type... if he does, he belongs in the oubre/johnson discussion....
25. Cameron Payne - he's put up strong numbers albeit at a small school... he deserves a mention here because everyone else below him has more serious questions other than competition... and guys like stuckey and lillard have proven that you can make it from a small school...
26. RJ Hunter - Like payne.. from a small school... but 2pfg% below the .500 mark is a red flag but may look like an outlier compared to his other years... still if you're coming from a small school you should be hitting on all fronts with weak competition... the other numbers look strong tho and he looks and plays too much like mike miller so i thought i'd mention him...
dj's top 25 of 2015
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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babyjax13
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
I really like your analysis. I think Wood's statistics probably get him ranked higher as the year goes on, but this draft seems so stacked up top I wonder if he can get past the very late lotto. I really like Jerian Grant, but I doubt he will be a point guard in the NBA. I think he will be very effective as a shooting guard, though. He reminds me more of a Dwayne Wade meets Manu Ginobili hybrid, and I think he is absolutely the steal of the draft where most mocks have him. I think you have him graded about right. Evaluation of Turner, especially, is spot on.
JazzMatt13 wrote:just because I think aliens probably have to do with JFK, doesn't mean my theory that Jazz will never get Wiggins, isn't true.
JColl
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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djphan
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
thanks...
i think with so many team using 'analytics' a guy like christian wood can't fall too far down... a guy like khem birch who all the statheads loved can fall and still not get an opportunity due to the perception of his physical markers... he's sort of like jordan mickey...and they share a low 2p fg% which sort of signals how their smallishness could be a problem for them esp on the offensive end... wood does not have that problem..
jerian i like a lot... and he may not be a pure pg like you said but he's going to be very good doing something at the nba level depending on where he goes... the more i think about it mudiay and jerian should be flip flopped...
i think with so many team using 'analytics' a guy like christian wood can't fall too far down... a guy like khem birch who all the statheads loved can fall and still not get an opportunity due to the perception of his physical markers... he's sort of like jordan mickey...and they share a low 2p fg% which sort of signals how their smallishness could be a problem for them esp on the offensive end... wood does not have that problem..
jerian i like a lot... and he may not be a pure pg like you said but he's going to be very good doing something at the nba level depending on where he goes... the more i think about it mudiay and jerian should be flip flopped...
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HeartBreakKid
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
I'm not seeing the light with Wright. What type of player do you think he will be in the NBA?
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dorkestra
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
Wood drastically underestimates the impact of social distinctions predicated upon wealth, especially inherited wealth? You got that from Vickers' "Work in Essex County," page 98, right? Yeah, I read that too. Were you gonna plagiarize the whole thing for us? Do you have any thoughts of your own on this matter? Or do you, is that your thing, you come into a bar, read some obscure passage and then pretend - you pawn it off as your own, as your own idea just to impress some girls, embarrass my friend?
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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djphan
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
delon is one of those guys that looks like he's going in slow motion but just gets to where he wants.. his athleticism isn't going to blow you away but he's what i'd like to call smart with the ball... he's a clever finisher, makes good decisions with the ball and knows what a good shot is...
athletically he's not going to wow you but his advantage is in his length and long arms... and he uses them to maximum effect in all facets of his game.. he's not russell westbrook out there but just because he doesn't look like a current nba pg doesn't mean he cant be effective...
he's dominating college basketball... and all the numbers point to future success in the pros... honestly he should've left last year since he's getting even less attention even with poy considerations... what more does he have to do?
athletically he's not going to wow you but his advantage is in his length and long arms... and he uses them to maximum effect in all facets of his game.. he's not russell westbrook out there but just because he doesn't look like a current nba pg doesn't mean he cant be effective...
he's dominating college basketball... and all the numbers point to future success in the pros... honestly he should've left last year since he's getting even less attention even with poy considerations... what more does he have to do?
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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djphan
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
Pre-March Madness update
It's becoming more clear that this is going to be a great draft... a top 3 for the ages with a deep set of good prospects behind them at all positions especially in the frontcourt...
The Franchise
1. Karl Anthony Towns - He has edged out the other two with very strong conference play.. he is on a trajectory with the elite big men.. 18/12/4/.600 per 40 as an 18 year old is a mark that not too many centers have passed... the names include hakeem, robinson, ewing, duncan, oden and embiid... with anthony davis just missing the pt mark at 17.7... he's more on the duncan side athletically than the other names so he will need to take advantage of an advanced outside shot to eventually get there... it's a safe bet that he does...
The Cornerstones
2. DeAngelo Russell - has regressed a little but i feel like that was because of a minor leg injury... the 2p% is getting low but he should recover...
3. Jahlil Okafor - the defense has regressed as he also had a small ankle injury which he may still be dealing with... the numbers say he's a PF that will need a rim protector behind him in order to find good team success... the offense is world class...
Interesting Big Men
4. Bobby Portis - nothing he does jumps out at you but there's something to be said for someone who will come in and be very good... probably won't ever be an all-star but will have a long career,health-willing, and produce every step of the way... there are few things that are certain especially in the draft but he's about as close to it as it gets...
5. Myles Turner - the exact opposite of Portis... his career could go in all sorts of directions and it really depends on the team that picks him... he gets boards, he blocks shots and has a variety of ways he can score but he does so inefficiently... he's not the quickest guy in the world either... still there's enough here to say that he'll be good and he has time on his side...
The Elite PGs
6. Delon Wright - not much else to say other than there's no reason he can't step right in and do what George Hill is doing right now... he will probably be a way better version of him eventually...
7. Emmanuel Mudiay - he came back for two games for the playoffs and did pretty well... still the shooting questions remain and it's not an automatic thing to expect that to get better...
Any Other Year They'd Be Way Higher
8. Jakob Poeltl - an up and down year but in total a strong showing... just go back and be #1 next year...
9. Christian Wood - has slowed down some and could slide further if he continues to struggle..
10. Willie Cauley Stein - still not convinced of his defensive prowess but he has the ability... and will be a solid if unspectacular pro...
11. Kris Dunn - quietly putting it all together... i have a soft spot for great prospects who struggle then find there way...
The Wings
12. Stanley Johnson - his inside scoring efficiency is trending down which tightens the best wing race a bit...
13. Kelly Oubre - trending upwards
14. Justise Winslow - he has made this a 3 way race with strong play as of late which incidentally came when okafor has been quiet... it could be that the offense is hiding him a bit... it's very murky with the SF class this year and the future could go in any direction with these 3...
Quality Unspectacular Bigs
15. Cliff Alexander - an investigation looming will most likely cut his season short... a solid year and should be a good PF in the pros..
16. Montrezl Harrell - i initially left him off because of the low block numbers but then realized the big men rotation could be the cause much like what Stein is seeing now... reminds me of jj hickson...
17. Jordan Mickey - everytime i see his name i get reminded of Khem Birch... i think mickey is better but he needs to work hard on a jumper...
The Small College Stars
18. Denzel Livingston - there aren't many SG prospects... i happen to think Winslow is a SG but most consider him a SF... Denzel is probably the best one... he's been spectacular since his freshman year... i've seen very little of him but he looks like a contributor...
19. Cameron Payne - another guy who's repeating a great freshman year at a small college.. murray st getting some national recognition and should up his stock come draft time...
The Tail End
20. Frank Kaminsky - I happen to think he can be a real weapon in the league in a channing frye type of role... seems like phoenix would be the ideal destination...
21. AJ Hammons - quietly coming on...
22. Jerian Grant - ultimately - i think the rebounding numbers are a big red flag now but i can't see him not being a contributor at the next level...
23. Terry Rozier - he is struggling right now and he's a lou williams or nothing type of prospect... his athleticism is what gives me hope that he eventually gets it together...
24. Rakeem Christmas - he could be a spectacular pro if the weight gain is really all he needed...
25. Chinanu Onuaku - very raw but he's on the noel/camby/stein trajectory of little offense but causing problems on the defense side... he'll probably be back but he deserves a mention...
It's becoming more clear that this is going to be a great draft... a top 3 for the ages with a deep set of good prospects behind them at all positions especially in the frontcourt...
The Franchise
1. Karl Anthony Towns - He has edged out the other two with very strong conference play.. he is on a trajectory with the elite big men.. 18/12/4/.600 per 40 as an 18 year old is a mark that not too many centers have passed... the names include hakeem, robinson, ewing, duncan, oden and embiid... with anthony davis just missing the pt mark at 17.7... he's more on the duncan side athletically than the other names so he will need to take advantage of an advanced outside shot to eventually get there... it's a safe bet that he does...
The Cornerstones
2. DeAngelo Russell - has regressed a little but i feel like that was because of a minor leg injury... the 2p% is getting low but he should recover...
3. Jahlil Okafor - the defense has regressed as he also had a small ankle injury which he may still be dealing with... the numbers say he's a PF that will need a rim protector behind him in order to find good team success... the offense is world class...
Interesting Big Men
4. Bobby Portis - nothing he does jumps out at you but there's something to be said for someone who will come in and be very good... probably won't ever be an all-star but will have a long career,health-willing, and produce every step of the way... there are few things that are certain especially in the draft but he's about as close to it as it gets...
5. Myles Turner - the exact opposite of Portis... his career could go in all sorts of directions and it really depends on the team that picks him... he gets boards, he blocks shots and has a variety of ways he can score but he does so inefficiently... he's not the quickest guy in the world either... still there's enough here to say that he'll be good and he has time on his side...
The Elite PGs
6. Delon Wright - not much else to say other than there's no reason he can't step right in and do what George Hill is doing right now... he will probably be a way better version of him eventually...
7. Emmanuel Mudiay - he came back for two games for the playoffs and did pretty well... still the shooting questions remain and it's not an automatic thing to expect that to get better...
Any Other Year They'd Be Way Higher
8. Jakob Poeltl - an up and down year but in total a strong showing... just go back and be #1 next year...
9. Christian Wood - has slowed down some and could slide further if he continues to struggle..
10. Willie Cauley Stein - still not convinced of his defensive prowess but he has the ability... and will be a solid if unspectacular pro...
11. Kris Dunn - quietly putting it all together... i have a soft spot for great prospects who struggle then find there way...
The Wings
12. Stanley Johnson - his inside scoring efficiency is trending down which tightens the best wing race a bit...
13. Kelly Oubre - trending upwards
14. Justise Winslow - he has made this a 3 way race with strong play as of late which incidentally came when okafor has been quiet... it could be that the offense is hiding him a bit... it's very murky with the SF class this year and the future could go in any direction with these 3...
Quality Unspectacular Bigs
15. Cliff Alexander - an investigation looming will most likely cut his season short... a solid year and should be a good PF in the pros..
16. Montrezl Harrell - i initially left him off because of the low block numbers but then realized the big men rotation could be the cause much like what Stein is seeing now... reminds me of jj hickson...
17. Jordan Mickey - everytime i see his name i get reminded of Khem Birch... i think mickey is better but he needs to work hard on a jumper...
The Small College Stars
18. Denzel Livingston - there aren't many SG prospects... i happen to think Winslow is a SG but most consider him a SF... Denzel is probably the best one... he's been spectacular since his freshman year... i've seen very little of him but he looks like a contributor...
19. Cameron Payne - another guy who's repeating a great freshman year at a small college.. murray st getting some national recognition and should up his stock come draft time...
The Tail End
20. Frank Kaminsky - I happen to think he can be a real weapon in the league in a channing frye type of role... seems like phoenix would be the ideal destination...
21. AJ Hammons - quietly coming on...
22. Jerian Grant - ultimately - i think the rebounding numbers are a big red flag now but i can't see him not being a contributor at the next level...
23. Terry Rozier - he is struggling right now and he's a lou williams or nothing type of prospect... his athleticism is what gives me hope that he eventually gets it together...
24. Rakeem Christmas - he could be a spectacular pro if the weight gain is really all he needed...
25. Chinanu Onuaku - very raw but he's on the noel/camby/stein trajectory of little offense but causing problems on the defense side... he'll probably be back but he deserves a mention...
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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noobcake
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
You really trying to tell me that there are 11 players better than Stanley Johnson/Justise Winslow
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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djphan
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
right now i would say yes but 4-14 is closer than the difference between 3 and 4 right now... so a hot march from any of those guys probably would see them climb signficantly...
all the guys ahead of the wings either have similar statistical questions but play more important positions... (turner, poeltl, dunn, mudiay) or have a more excellent and stable body of work (portis, wright, stein, wood)... 4-14 all profile as role players/starters of varying degrees so it's picking nits with that whole group...
the wings have a problem in that nothing really sticks out yet so they have further to go... the offense and defense look soso... winslow shows the most promise since he's really hot now.. and there's some evidence that he's been held back by the ok4 centric offense... but johnson was looking like a superstar earlier in the year also and has tailed off a bit... and oubre has had a steady climb facing much more difficult competition... so you can say something good/bad about each...
all the guys ahead of the wings either have similar statistical questions but play more important positions... (turner, poeltl, dunn, mudiay) or have a more excellent and stable body of work (portis, wright, stein, wood)... 4-14 all profile as role players/starters of varying degrees so it's picking nits with that whole group...
the wings have a problem in that nothing really sticks out yet so they have further to go... the offense and defense look soso... winslow shows the most promise since he's really hot now.. and there's some evidence that he's been held back by the ok4 centric offense... but johnson was looking like a superstar earlier in the year also and has tailed off a bit... and oubre has had a steady climb facing much more difficult competition... so you can say something good/bad about each...
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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HeartBreakKid
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
No Euro guys?
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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djphan
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
they don't have the look of serious prospects and i think they are just wildly wildly overrated... porzingis looks promising but low rebounding numbers are tough to shake for a PF which leads me to believe he's a SF... i thought i could rate him ahead of rozier but rozier at least stacks up athletically at the next level.... there seems to be a rule that you need to draft a euro in the lottery and i think his age and his feel on the offensive end is what is fueling the hype... if you don't grab boards it's going to be tough playing either forward position....
hezonja is a scorer... but doesn't look to contribute anywhere else.. he's not rd1 material in this deep a draft...
hezonja is a scorer... but doesn't look to contribute anywhere else.. he's not rd1 material in this deep a draft...
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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djphan
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
Final Four Update
Lots of changes since a lot of prospects have struggled mightily during tourney season and has taken the sheen off this draft considerably... It is a very deep draft but it is more homogenized than before... The mix of quality bigs and solid guards could make this a pretty decent draft.. There are still a couple games left from a handful of top prospects but the only change will be when prospects actually declare...
I've mixed in some statistical comps and factored some of that into the whole profile... I've also adjusted some weighting for some categories but generally looking at the same things as before: 2p fg%/ pts per 40/ rbs per 40/ assist to TO / stls per 40 / blks per 40 are benchmarked and weighted differently by position. 3pr and FTr are factored into statistical comps to get a feel for how good a shooter they are since it's not always obvious with 2p fg%... Age has the most influence.
One thing to keep in mind... This is a ranking of how good these players are and how well they project using numbers... Very rarely do players come out of nowhere from college and do something in the pros... and the seeds of any NBA player who make it are planted in college.. for those who attend of course... with that said... players do improve in the nba and find themselves in environments that cultivate their talents and hide their weaknesses and it's even more truer this year since there are prospects with key questions and flags in their profiles... i try to highlight that for each below:
The Franchise
1. Karl Anthony Towns key stat. 2p fg% .575
Towns 2p fg% has been on a steady climb since the beginning of the year and that development has put him on a trajectory with some of the great centers in the game. The move from floating on the perimeter to working almost exclusively in the post has been key. Shooting jumpers is nice for a big man but leads to mediocre efficiency if you depend on that. All other areas in his game are well developed for his age. The offense is far from complete as is common for any 19 year old and the 2p fg% does fall a bit short of some other big men so he's not a surefire hall of famer. It is at a level where he can be a real difference maker and he’s a safe bet to join the elite ranks of big men sooner than people think. An underrated subjective aspect is that he makes quick, sound decisions on offense and quick reactions on defense. A hallmark of any great player.
The Stars
2.D’angelo Russell key stat 2p fg: .479
The last month has seen questions start to pop up about D’angelo’s prospects. The Arizona game is keen on everyone’s mind and the questions are very much valid. It really has a lot to do with his ability to score inside against size and he’s had similar occurrences against Louisville, UNC and Purdue. He’s become less of a sure thing but he’s young and he was fine throughout the year. That drop in 2p fg% does draw questions to how good he can be. Ray Allen comes up as a comp which is both good and bad. If he doesn’t figure out more ways to score, he will probably generate most of his offense from behind the arc which he already does. The ballhandling, playmaking and 3p shooting are all at great levels to say he could overcome that and be a star anyway.
3. Jalhlil Okafor key stat: blk per 40 1.9
Everyone knows the deal with Okafor. Sexy low post offense combined with so so defense. There is little precedent for a center with such a low block rate turning into a good defender. The one comparable? Andrew Bogut and he will need to channel the Bogut if he is ever to be considered great. The declining rebound rate is also concerning as its dipped below 12 per 40 which is a red flag and hopefully he can bring up in the next couple of games. There is a lot more bust potential here than what people think. Ground bound and heavy center types almost always dominate college but find it tough to adjust to the pro game and more importantly controlling their weight and conditioning. There are plenty of success stories but also a whole lot of failures. All signs point to a guy willing to put in the work so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. With all that said, the offense is comparable to some of the great PFs and if he can overcome the rebounding questions he could be a star.
Could be Stars
4. Justise Winslow pts per 40: 17.2
Justise is the one prospect who has really shot up with an incredible month. He’s improved across the board and the the 2p fg% in particular was in a dangerous territory but brought it up to a decent level. He’s helped further by the fact that he might be hidden in the Okafor centric offense and that his scoring is a bit depressed. I think he is a SG and not a SF in the pros and if he really was hidden, then this draft is really a top 4.
5. Delon Wright 3p fg: .356
Delon is a guy that the scouts and numbers have disagreed heavily on. The only question he had was 3p shooting and he has answered those questions with a hot last month. Scouts say he lacks quickness but he leverages his size well on both ends of the court which reflect in his stls, blks and 2p fg%. In a draft with a lot of solid guys with some question marks, he has none. He probably won’t ever be a great scorer in the mold of Derrick Rose or Kyrie Irving so the upside is limited. He will be a good to great pg in his own right though.
6. Emmanuel Mudiay FT%: .574
It seems like the China experiment has left more questions than answers. I do know he is going to struggle with shooting and the FT% is a reflection. Ballhandling and athleticism all seem to be very good. One thing to keep in mind is that PG’s tend to take a long time to develop and Mudiay seems to be the case where he might not find his stride until his second contract or second team. He seems to be good enough where he’ll be able to work through those issues but the ghosts of Baron Davis and Rajon Rondo will be haunting him if he doesn't fix his shooting.
7.Jakob Poeltl – pts per 40: 15
A raw center prospect isn’t uncommon. What is rare about Poeltl is his ability to finish which is helped by his great hands. The blocks number seem to be depressed a little but is in a decent spot as is. He will need to work on his post moves to be able to score in volume which turns him from a good to great prospect. That's far from a sure thing but is the one guy who has the most upside after the top 2.
8. Myles Turner 2p fg%:.513
I’ve gone back and forth on his ranking and ultimately settled here. The upside is limited due to his inability to finish inside and his tendency to float. The hope is that he goes to the right team that reigns this in and takes advantage of the things that he’s good at which are on the defensive end of the court and his ability to hit a 3. It’s anyone’s guess if that happens and usually guys who shoot this bad go back to school or bust in the pros but he's young enough and there's enough smart teams in the league that can maybe harnass his talents.
9. Kris Dunn – TOs per 40: 4.7
High TO’s in pg’s aren’t too much of a concern. It usually is a result of trying to handle the ball a lot against set defenses. There isn’t much to complain about with Kris and should be a fine pg.
Steady Bigs
10. Willie Cauley-Stein – 2p fg% .578
The UK defensive ranks his two previous seasons seem like a red flag but could be minor. Declining 2p fg% points to a guy trying to figure out more ways to score. He probably won’t but will be a solid contributor for years.
11. Bobby Portis – 2p fg .544
Another guy who has been hurt by a terrible couple of tourney’s. He went from a decent inside scorer to settling for way too many jumpers. He will be in a secondary/third role in the pros so this might not hurt him as much. Markieff Morris is a good comp here.
13. Christian Wood – stls 0.4
Another prospect who tailed off and what washed in with the tide was a low steal rate. It’s not uncommon for centers to have a low steal rate but below 0.5 is a mark that not many successful ones have. The feeling here is that he is not a center but a PF and if that’s the case this could be a harbinger of bad news. Steals do tend to be volatile and could be an effort to stay on the court so it might not mean too much. The rest of the profile looks clean if not spectacular.
14. AJ Hammons: A/TO 0.4
Steady improvement throughout his Purdue career and he’s at a point now where he could prove to be a useful scorer. The postgame is still a work in progress but developing and he will need to keep improving in that area. The ballhandling also needs a lot of work as the A/TO pops up as a red flag which is important if he’s to be relied upon with the ball in his hands. Altogether, a typical late lotto center prospect. Centers are inherently risky due to high frequency of injury and the manner in which they develop. He fits the profile of a risky late lotto center prospect but he seems safer than past mistakes.
Some Question Marks
15. Kelly Oubre pts per 40: 17.6
Like Winslow has come on strong the past couple of months. Like Winslow, has struggled to score in volume only he’s had every opportunity to showcase his talents. He has the athleticism to say he could make it as a useful part of a team but he looks like a lesser version of his predecessor Andrew Wiggins.
16 Cliff Alexander – pts per 40: 16.2
A controversial first year. We didn’t get to see much of him but when he was on the court he showed an ability to be a pretty solid PF.
17. Stanley Johnson 2p fg% .469
Like Russell he has been in a slump but his has lasted well into the conference schedule. Like Russell he has been settling for jumpers and not finishing. I’m less optimistic that he figures it out since his percentages are lower and have been problem for a lot longer. He’s another who could benefit from going to the right team who can put him in high efficient opportunities.
18. Frank Kaminsky blks 1.7 rbs 9.6
In a lot of ways his junior year was better and it’s important for big men prospects to establish dominance at as early an age possible since the pool of players gets younger the longer you stay in college. Dominance for senior prospects is expected. All the guys in this group all have major red flags and it wouldn't surprise me if all of them busted. Kaminsky is a reflection of that and the key question for him will be the rebounding and defense which are mediocre right now but the offense is good and versatile.
The Small College Stars
19. Cameron Payne pts per 40: 25.1
Small college guys are hard to rate due to the competition but it seems like a lot of PGs the last few years have broken through. The following group rates pretty high but i don't have good translations. They have all passed pretty high benchmarks though. Cameron himself passes every statistical marker comfortably and where he shines is his scoring ability, an area where small college guards must break through to succeed at the next level.y.
20. Shawn Long stls 0.9
He's shown steady improvement in his ball handling and inside scoring efficiency which has turned him into a solid prospect. Steals are a bit low which is troublesome but there's a lot to like here.
21. Denzel Livingston 2p fg%
Not a lot of great SG prospects in this draft and he seems like the best one. Very little footage of him but the profile looks clean. 2p fg% is the flag here as he just passes the .500 mark so we’ll see how he is able to finish against NBA size.
The Rotation Guys
22. Daniel Ochefu pts per 40: 15.4
He’s had rapid improvement throughout his Villanova career particularly on offense. His work has made him into a solid big man that goes with his steady work on defense.
23. Jordan Mickey 2pt fg% .518
The inside scoring is a concern and that points to his lack of size and creativity. I would have more confidence in him if he had a jumper but it’s a work in progress. There’s enough upside here to be optimistic due to the high block rates and the athleticism.
24. Montrezl Harrell blks 1.4
A lot of mediocre in his statistical profile which reflects his game. He finishes well but with not enough volume to hang your hat on and the defense /rebounding both seem a bit mediocre. JJ Hickson comes up as a comp and he’d be a poor man’s version of that which could be a valuable rotation piece.
25.Rakeem Christmas blks 2.9
Really came out of nowhere to post a stellar senior campaign. Most of it probably has something to do with a weight gain which could be meaningful for him in the pros. Still seniors who all of a sudden come on are usually not good bets but it is better than not coming on at all. That’s the main reason for this ranking despite a pretty solid stat profile.
26. Jerian Grant rbs per 40:3.2
I like him more subjectively and this ranking is admittedly overlooking a really bad rebounding number. The numbers actually look really good save for that. For a guy with good size and decent athleticism it seems rather perplexing that he has a mark this low but everything else looks amazing including the eye test. If the rebounding was a quirk in the system of Notre Dame and not to a lack of athleticism/activeness/awareness, it will be apparent immediately and you now have someone who is the equivalent of delon wright.
Lots of changes since a lot of prospects have struggled mightily during tourney season and has taken the sheen off this draft considerably... It is a very deep draft but it is more homogenized than before... The mix of quality bigs and solid guards could make this a pretty decent draft.. There are still a couple games left from a handful of top prospects but the only change will be when prospects actually declare...
I've mixed in some statistical comps and factored some of that into the whole profile... I've also adjusted some weighting for some categories but generally looking at the same things as before: 2p fg%/ pts per 40/ rbs per 40/ assist to TO / stls per 40 / blks per 40 are benchmarked and weighted differently by position. 3pr and FTr are factored into statistical comps to get a feel for how good a shooter they are since it's not always obvious with 2p fg%... Age has the most influence.
One thing to keep in mind... This is a ranking of how good these players are and how well they project using numbers... Very rarely do players come out of nowhere from college and do something in the pros... and the seeds of any NBA player who make it are planted in college.. for those who attend of course... with that said... players do improve in the nba and find themselves in environments that cultivate their talents and hide their weaknesses and it's even more truer this year since there are prospects with key questions and flags in their profiles... i try to highlight that for each below:
The Franchise
1. Karl Anthony Towns key stat. 2p fg% .575
Towns 2p fg% has been on a steady climb since the beginning of the year and that development has put him on a trajectory with some of the great centers in the game. The move from floating on the perimeter to working almost exclusively in the post has been key. Shooting jumpers is nice for a big man but leads to mediocre efficiency if you depend on that. All other areas in his game are well developed for his age. The offense is far from complete as is common for any 19 year old and the 2p fg% does fall a bit short of some other big men so he's not a surefire hall of famer. It is at a level where he can be a real difference maker and he’s a safe bet to join the elite ranks of big men sooner than people think. An underrated subjective aspect is that he makes quick, sound decisions on offense and quick reactions on defense. A hallmark of any great player.
The Stars
2.D’angelo Russell key stat 2p fg: .479
The last month has seen questions start to pop up about D’angelo’s prospects. The Arizona game is keen on everyone’s mind and the questions are very much valid. It really has a lot to do with his ability to score inside against size and he’s had similar occurrences against Louisville, UNC and Purdue. He’s become less of a sure thing but he’s young and he was fine throughout the year. That drop in 2p fg% does draw questions to how good he can be. Ray Allen comes up as a comp which is both good and bad. If he doesn’t figure out more ways to score, he will probably generate most of his offense from behind the arc which he already does. The ballhandling, playmaking and 3p shooting are all at great levels to say he could overcome that and be a star anyway.
3. Jalhlil Okafor key stat: blk per 40 1.9
Everyone knows the deal with Okafor. Sexy low post offense combined with so so defense. There is little precedent for a center with such a low block rate turning into a good defender. The one comparable? Andrew Bogut and he will need to channel the Bogut if he is ever to be considered great. The declining rebound rate is also concerning as its dipped below 12 per 40 which is a red flag and hopefully he can bring up in the next couple of games. There is a lot more bust potential here than what people think. Ground bound and heavy center types almost always dominate college but find it tough to adjust to the pro game and more importantly controlling their weight and conditioning. There are plenty of success stories but also a whole lot of failures. All signs point to a guy willing to put in the work so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. With all that said, the offense is comparable to some of the great PFs and if he can overcome the rebounding questions he could be a star.
Could be Stars
4. Justise Winslow pts per 40: 17.2
Justise is the one prospect who has really shot up with an incredible month. He’s improved across the board and the the 2p fg% in particular was in a dangerous territory but brought it up to a decent level. He’s helped further by the fact that he might be hidden in the Okafor centric offense and that his scoring is a bit depressed. I think he is a SG and not a SF in the pros and if he really was hidden, then this draft is really a top 4.
5. Delon Wright 3p fg: .356
Delon is a guy that the scouts and numbers have disagreed heavily on. The only question he had was 3p shooting and he has answered those questions with a hot last month. Scouts say he lacks quickness but he leverages his size well on both ends of the court which reflect in his stls, blks and 2p fg%. In a draft with a lot of solid guys with some question marks, he has none. He probably won’t ever be a great scorer in the mold of Derrick Rose or Kyrie Irving so the upside is limited. He will be a good to great pg in his own right though.
6. Emmanuel Mudiay FT%: .574
It seems like the China experiment has left more questions than answers. I do know he is going to struggle with shooting and the FT% is a reflection. Ballhandling and athleticism all seem to be very good. One thing to keep in mind is that PG’s tend to take a long time to develop and Mudiay seems to be the case where he might not find his stride until his second contract or second team. He seems to be good enough where he’ll be able to work through those issues but the ghosts of Baron Davis and Rajon Rondo will be haunting him if he doesn't fix his shooting.
7.Jakob Poeltl – pts per 40: 15
A raw center prospect isn’t uncommon. What is rare about Poeltl is his ability to finish which is helped by his great hands. The blocks number seem to be depressed a little but is in a decent spot as is. He will need to work on his post moves to be able to score in volume which turns him from a good to great prospect. That's far from a sure thing but is the one guy who has the most upside after the top 2.
8. Myles Turner 2p fg%:.513
I’ve gone back and forth on his ranking and ultimately settled here. The upside is limited due to his inability to finish inside and his tendency to float. The hope is that he goes to the right team that reigns this in and takes advantage of the things that he’s good at which are on the defensive end of the court and his ability to hit a 3. It’s anyone’s guess if that happens and usually guys who shoot this bad go back to school or bust in the pros but he's young enough and there's enough smart teams in the league that can maybe harnass his talents.
9. Kris Dunn – TOs per 40: 4.7
High TO’s in pg’s aren’t too much of a concern. It usually is a result of trying to handle the ball a lot against set defenses. There isn’t much to complain about with Kris and should be a fine pg.
Steady Bigs
10. Willie Cauley-Stein – 2p fg% .578
The UK defensive ranks his two previous seasons seem like a red flag but could be minor. Declining 2p fg% points to a guy trying to figure out more ways to score. He probably won’t but will be a solid contributor for years.
11. Bobby Portis – 2p fg .544
Another guy who has been hurt by a terrible couple of tourney’s. He went from a decent inside scorer to settling for way too many jumpers. He will be in a secondary/third role in the pros so this might not hurt him as much. Markieff Morris is a good comp here.
13. Christian Wood – stls 0.4
Another prospect who tailed off and what washed in with the tide was a low steal rate. It’s not uncommon for centers to have a low steal rate but below 0.5 is a mark that not many successful ones have. The feeling here is that he is not a center but a PF and if that’s the case this could be a harbinger of bad news. Steals do tend to be volatile and could be an effort to stay on the court so it might not mean too much. The rest of the profile looks clean if not spectacular.
14. AJ Hammons: A/TO 0.4
Steady improvement throughout his Purdue career and he’s at a point now where he could prove to be a useful scorer. The postgame is still a work in progress but developing and he will need to keep improving in that area. The ballhandling also needs a lot of work as the A/TO pops up as a red flag which is important if he’s to be relied upon with the ball in his hands. Altogether, a typical late lotto center prospect. Centers are inherently risky due to high frequency of injury and the manner in which they develop. He fits the profile of a risky late lotto center prospect but he seems safer than past mistakes.
Some Question Marks
15. Kelly Oubre pts per 40: 17.6
Like Winslow has come on strong the past couple of months. Like Winslow, has struggled to score in volume only he’s had every opportunity to showcase his talents. He has the athleticism to say he could make it as a useful part of a team but he looks like a lesser version of his predecessor Andrew Wiggins.
16 Cliff Alexander – pts per 40: 16.2
A controversial first year. We didn’t get to see much of him but when he was on the court he showed an ability to be a pretty solid PF.
17. Stanley Johnson 2p fg% .469
Like Russell he has been in a slump but his has lasted well into the conference schedule. Like Russell he has been settling for jumpers and not finishing. I’m less optimistic that he figures it out since his percentages are lower and have been problem for a lot longer. He’s another who could benefit from going to the right team who can put him in high efficient opportunities.
18. Frank Kaminsky blks 1.7 rbs 9.6
In a lot of ways his junior year was better and it’s important for big men prospects to establish dominance at as early an age possible since the pool of players gets younger the longer you stay in college. Dominance for senior prospects is expected. All the guys in this group all have major red flags and it wouldn't surprise me if all of them busted. Kaminsky is a reflection of that and the key question for him will be the rebounding and defense which are mediocre right now but the offense is good and versatile.
The Small College Stars
19. Cameron Payne pts per 40: 25.1
Small college guys are hard to rate due to the competition but it seems like a lot of PGs the last few years have broken through. The following group rates pretty high but i don't have good translations. They have all passed pretty high benchmarks though. Cameron himself passes every statistical marker comfortably and where he shines is his scoring ability, an area where small college guards must break through to succeed at the next level.y.
20. Shawn Long stls 0.9
He's shown steady improvement in his ball handling and inside scoring efficiency which has turned him into a solid prospect. Steals are a bit low which is troublesome but there's a lot to like here.
21. Denzel Livingston 2p fg%
Not a lot of great SG prospects in this draft and he seems like the best one. Very little footage of him but the profile looks clean. 2p fg% is the flag here as he just passes the .500 mark so we’ll see how he is able to finish against NBA size.
The Rotation Guys
22. Daniel Ochefu pts per 40: 15.4
He’s had rapid improvement throughout his Villanova career particularly on offense. His work has made him into a solid big man that goes with his steady work on defense.
23. Jordan Mickey 2pt fg% .518
The inside scoring is a concern and that points to his lack of size and creativity. I would have more confidence in him if he had a jumper but it’s a work in progress. There’s enough upside here to be optimistic due to the high block rates and the athleticism.
24. Montrezl Harrell blks 1.4
A lot of mediocre in his statistical profile which reflects his game. He finishes well but with not enough volume to hang your hat on and the defense /rebounding both seem a bit mediocre. JJ Hickson comes up as a comp and he’d be a poor man’s version of that which could be a valuable rotation piece.
25.Rakeem Christmas blks 2.9
Really came out of nowhere to post a stellar senior campaign. Most of it probably has something to do with a weight gain which could be meaningful for him in the pros. Still seniors who all of a sudden come on are usually not good bets but it is better than not coming on at all. That’s the main reason for this ranking despite a pretty solid stat profile.
26. Jerian Grant rbs per 40:3.2
I like him more subjectively and this ranking is admittedly overlooking a really bad rebounding number. The numbers actually look really good save for that. For a guy with good size and decent athleticism it seems rather perplexing that he has a mark this low but everything else looks amazing including the eye test. If the rebounding was a quirk in the system of Notre Dame and not to a lack of athleticism/activeness/awareness, it will be apparent immediately and you now have someone who is the equivalent of delon wright.
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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JB2
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
Love you write ups. I agree with the majority of it. What about Sam Dekker, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson? IMO to very good NBA rotation wings
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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djphan
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
thanks...
sam dekker is a great offensive talent but the defensive numbers are insanely low and there's no real precedent for these types of guys to succeed at any level of the nba... you have to remember that being a great college scorer/shooter is not that special... there are ppl who do this every year... the lack of steals and blocks pts to some athleticism issues so his scoring efficiency won't translate as well...
rondae-holis jefferson is interesting... he's pretty much the same as aaron gordon last year... and the same as michael-kidd gilchrist...
it's really hard for a wing to make it if you're a zero on offense... thabo and bruce bowen had to hang on for years because they were cheap and there was a dearth of guys who could defend well... jefferson can be that type but to me that's not rd 1 material.... but that doesn't mean he can't have a long career...
sam dekker is a great offensive talent but the defensive numbers are insanely low and there's no real precedent for these types of guys to succeed at any level of the nba... you have to remember that being a great college scorer/shooter is not that special... there are ppl who do this every year... the lack of steals and blocks pts to some athleticism issues so his scoring efficiency won't translate as well...
rondae-holis jefferson is interesting... he's pretty much the same as aaron gordon last year... and the same as michael-kidd gilchrist...
it's really hard for a wing to make it if you're a zero on offense... thabo and bruce bowen had to hang on for years because they were cheap and there was a dearth of guys who could defend well... jefferson can be that type but to me that's not rd 1 material.... but that doesn't mean he can't have a long career...
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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babyjax13
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
I agree on Dekker, I really just don't buy him being much more than an end of the bench power forward like Steve Novak unless his defense improves dramatically...in which case...maybe Gallinari? But not nearly as good with the ball in his hands so...still Novak. I liked your original ranking of Grant better. He played every second of the tournament and was reasonably effective against Kentuckey which is essentially an NBA team. I still don't think he is a point guard. I don't see Portis translating and I think Kaminsky is a lot more versatile than both he and Turner...but who knows. Nice write ups, and enjoyable read : )
JazzMatt13 wrote:just because I think aliens probably have to do with JFK, doesn't mean my theory that Jazz will never get Wiggins, isn't true.
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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M-C-G
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
That's weird regarding Dekker...I've watched a ton of Badgers games over the last 3 years, and the eye test tells me his a pretty solid defender.
His athleticism is also really underrated, I think he will test really well at the combine...he bigger, faster and longer than people think.
His athleticism is also really underrated, I think he will test really well at the combine...he bigger, faster and longer than people think.
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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djphan
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
M-C-G wrote:That's weird regarding Dekker...I've watched a ton of Badgers games over the last 3 years, and the eye test tells me his a pretty solid defender.
His athleticism is also really underrated, I think he will test really well at the combine...he bigger, faster and longer than people think.
it's not enough to be athletic... it's more about how you apply your athleticism on the court.. there are guys who jump really high but don't block shots and guys who are really fast and quick but don't steal a basketball... there's a lot that goes into it each of those skills that don't really show up on a tape measure or a combine result.... there's some cleverness and basketball ability that goes into taking a ball from a skilled dribbler...
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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M-C-G
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
djphan wrote:M-C-G wrote:That's weird regarding Dekker...I've watched a ton of Badgers games over the last 3 years, and the eye test tells me his a pretty solid defender.
His athleticism is also really underrated, I think he will test really well at the combine...he bigger, faster and longer than people think.
it's not enough to be athletic... it's more about how you apply your athleticism on the court.. there are guys who jump really high but don't block shots and guys who are really fast and quick but don't steal a basketball... there's a lot that goes into it each of those skills that don't really show up on a tape measure or a combine result.... there's some cleverness and basketball ability that goes into taking a ball from a skilled dribbler...
Certainly, but their is also a skill of staying in front of your man, denying the ball, taking good angles, etc. I'm sure there is plenty of data supporting steal rates and rebounding translating to "good" NBA defense, but if you just look at those stats in a vacuum I am not sure it tells the whole story, at least in this case.
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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djphan
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
babyjax13 wrote:I agree on Dekker, I really just don't buy him being much more than an end of the bench power forward like Steve Novak unless his defense improves dramatically...in which case...maybe Gallinari? But not nearly as good with the ball in his hands so...still Novak. I liked your original ranking of Grant better. He played every second of the tournament and was reasonably effective against Kentuckey which is essentially an NBA team. I still don't think he is a point guard. I don't see Portis translating and I think Kaminsky is a lot more versatile than both he and Turner...but who knows. Nice write ups, and enjoyable read : )
Grant is tough to get a handle on... and it's due to the low rebound rates... he just doesn't compare at all with all the short guys that don't rebound... the tallest guard that had rebounding issues was westbrook but howland's ucla teams had all sorts of weirdness going on...
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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djphan
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
Post Lotto Board
Not too much change,save for removing the folks who decided to go back to school. Poeltl and Dunn were the big annoucements and in the case of Dunn it was a curious choice although it will be nice to see him repeat a stellar season and solidify an early lotto rank next season.
Now that the draft order is set I've thrown in some analysis of the teams picking also... this is Part 1:
The Franchise
1. Karl Anthony Towns - He's a fairly clear #1 at this point as he has almost zero questions. He is roughly as good as Embiid was pre-injury and a slightly superior prospect to Blake Griffin coming out. A true center with a wide skillset don't come around often.
TWolves - There's some crazy talk about Flip Saunders being enamored with Okafor. If the Twolves pass on Towns it would be one of the draft's biggest mistakes ever. Trading the pick would be equally as bad. In terms of fit, it's going to be an odd pairing with Dieng. With Flip coaching as well, it's not the most ideal situation for him but there's enough talent on the team to get somewhere if Rubio can stay healthy and make some progress on his shot.
The Cornerstones
This tier is very close together. So close they are all essentially equal and interchangeable. All have valid claims for #2. All have a big question mark but have enough star potential where they are good deal better than everyone else.
2. DeAngelo Russell - Inside scoring is the main worry and if he doesn't find more ways to get in the paint, he will have something like a Ray Allen type of career, getting the majority of his points on jumpers and from beyond the arc. 2PA and 2P% are going to be key indicators for him early on. If he trades in his mid range pull up jumpers for shots in the paint, he will be amongst the league's best.
Lakers - They are a wild card at this spot. I think the likely choice will be Okafor but there's enough rumors going around that they could take one of Mudiay and Russell also. There's good arguments for any possibility, including a trade.
3. Justise Winslow- A tale of two halves:
1st half per 40
(2pa: 7.7) (2p%: .467) (3pa: 4.9) (3p%: .349) (rb:6.8) (stl: 1.25) (blk: 0.93)
2nd half per 40
(2pa: 9.8) (2p%: .552) (3pa: 2.9) (3p%: .488) (rb:11.0) (stl: 2.36) (blk: 1.48)
What does this mean? You might notice that he stopped shooting 3p'ers as much and traded those in for 2p shots. Looking at shot charts it looks like a good deal were at the rim. A lot of these were probably transition buckets but the story here is that he started asserting himself more, taking smarter shots and able to leverage his physical advantage on his opponents. All great signs. 17.3 pp40 is a low number though and looking at his shot chart a lot of his 3p'ers (90%) were assisted and his midrange is bad (27%). It points to a lack of elite creative ability. That leads to questions of how good he can be but there is a very good comparable here, one who he recently compared himself to, and that is Kawhi Leonard. An elite defender who scores efficiently, if not often, who took awhile to bring his offensive arsenal together. Their college numbers also look very similar. Winslow seems like the more offense less defense version of him. There's some level of safety in this pick as he passes most major benchmarks which is why he's rated ever so slightly over the next guy.
Sixers - Probably taking a guard although it doesn't seem like Winslow is on their radar. Russell and Mudiay both make sense. I give the edge to Russell.
4. Jahlil Okafor - If he were more of a Blake Griffin type of PF, he would be a consensus #2. He however fits the profile of a ground bound PF/C type which history does not look favorably upon. He looks to be taking the criticisms to heart though and working on his conditioning which is a very good sign. Keeping that up for his entire career though will be a challenge as well as working on his defense. If he keeps the weight in check then he will probably be an all-star talent but there's enough risk in the profile (blks, rbs) to be worried.
Knicks - Most saw this as a catastrophic drop but in a draft with a clear top 4 with 2-4 being so close together, it is not a bad position. Winslow seems the likely choice here with an interesting decision if the Lakers pass on Okafor.
The Mystery Man
5.Emmanuel Mudiay - Looks to be gaining back some of the hype that he lost with his China stint. There are still a lot of unknowns which keep him from being with the top group. The major question is his shot and how quickly he can get to a consistent level and whether he can leverage his athleticism to score in the paint enough to overcome that. No matter how good he is it will likely take 3 years before we see what he can actually be. Unless your name is Chris Paul or Magic Johnson it usually takes at least that long for a pg to find themselves as John Wall, Derrick Rose found out and Marcus Smart is now discovering. The China numbers were good enough to have some confidence in this ranking but it comes in the size of a grain of salt.
Magic - This is a key point for this franchise and will be an important decision. They have enough young players and a gaping hole at a frontcourt position that they can justify picking by need but, at least on my board, that could be a mistake. They are in need of a big man to play alongside Vucevic. Stein and Turner will be talked a lot about here. One of Winslow/Russell/Mudiay will be available though and I'd think long and hard about picking them if I were the Magic despite the presence of Gordon and Payton.
Solid
Both guys here are rated this high because they are fairly safe bets to contribute in a rotation for a long time . That has lots of value.
6. Willie Cauley-Stein - A center that can play defense, and be good against the PnR to boot, will always be coveted around the league. It's too bad he can't be trusted with the ball or he'd be alot higher.
Kings - Lots of big trade rumors will circulate with Cousins but I think he stays put. Porzingis will probably be slotted here and if he's actually taken then .. well .. they will deserve everything coming to them. Winslow is a no brainer if he happens to fall this far and Stein is also attractive to shore up a leaky defense.
7. Delon Wright - It's unlikely he will get picked this high and will give whatever team lucky enough to grab him tremendous value wherever he lands. I feel pretty confident in this ranking based on his repeat of a stellar junior year and his improvement from beyond the arc. Excellent defensive and ballhandling numbers. However, just like Mudiay, it will take him awhile to find his groove.
Nuggets - I have them pegged as the team most likely to make a deal, although not necessarily for this pick. A number of players on ok deals plus a lotto pick in no man's land. This is probably the worst spot in the lotto. It's an enticing spot for a team looking to trade down (Knicks? Magic?) who are targeting someone like Kaminsky or one of the leftover wings while picking up some veteran help(Lawson? Gallinari? Chandler? Faried?). They probably try to move up because they have a glut in the frontcourt. If they stand pat the options aren't attractive which would be their motivation for a deal but Oubre or Johnson make some sense.
Interesting But Risky Bigs
This the part of the draft where things start to get a bit risky. With the exception of Frank the Tank, they all have serious ballhandling/TO problems which is enough to torpedo any big man prospect and with Kaminsky you have defensive questions. The risk level will cause some, if not all, of them to drop on some boards. There is talent here however.
8. Myles Turner - It takes a village to raise a child and it will take a whole organization to get Turner to fulfill his potential. He's young enough where he's not hopeless but the numbers see a huge risk and scouts seem to agree. One thing in his favor is that It's not uncommon for big men to have a lackluster college career but find their game in the pros much like DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond and Roy Hibbert. There's a lot to like despite all of that and it's his ability to protect the rim combo'ed with his ability to hit an outside shot. That's a rare commodity which is the basis for this ranking despite the huge risk.
Pistons - They've had some success with the aforementioned Drummond so they might be tempted to take a similar risk in Turner which would be a bad idea for them. I like Portis here since Van Gundy has had good success with stretch 4 types.
9. Bobby Portis – He's a bit of a sleeper. He doesn't have a sexy game but he produces at a high level. I liken him to Markieff Morris and he might be a bit better. He's not as risky as the heading suggests but if he's asked to be a primary scorer then he will have problems.
Hornets - A franchise stuck in neutral. It makes sense for them to take on a bit more risk as their history of taking big college names have been mixed to put it mildly. A lot of players makes sense at this point since they have a lot of needs, but I foresee them going to the well again and taking Kaminsky.
10. Christian Wood - Another guy who probably won't be picked this high but there's some reward here for any team willing to take the plunge. John Henson is a good/bad comparable here but fortunately for Wood he has more offensive skills.
Heat - They will get a good player here but exactly who that will be is anyone's guess. This is where the consensus ranks start diverging from my ranks. Oubre/Johnson make the most sense based on need. Delon and Cameron Payne are also interesting if Dragic plans to ditch South Beach.
11. Frank Kaminsky - He should prove to be a solid offensive weapon in the pros but the defense is going to hold him back. I liken him to Vucevic, although the offensive game is different but the overall impact will probably be similar. If he can go to a team that can hide him defensively and play him more as a PF then he will flourish.
Pacers - They probably would've loved to have Kris Dunn if he declared. They have a hole at the 2 also so this looks like a spot for Stanley Johnson but I think Delon would fit nicely here too.
Rotation Guys
These guys could be anywhere from solid to fringe starters or good bench types. With so many team looking for help on the wing it is likely guys like Oubre and Johnson will be picked ahead of these spots but there's good value for any team looking to go big in this range.
12 Kelly Oubre - The one true SF out of the triumvirate of wings in this draft (Winslow and Johnson for the record, are better at SG imo). He'll need to be more aggressive going to the hole and finishing, as well as firming up his ballhandling but he's a solid pick with some upside for a team in this range.
Jazz - A young team on the upswing that desperately needs a pg. It's hard seeing them go after yet another one in the draft though. My guess is they go look in free agency for a veteran and hope Burke or Exum take a step forward. That leaves Oubre or Johnson as a logical choice with Oubre preferred.
13 Cliff Alexander – Profiles to be a PF/C with a long career. Like a lot of the bigs in this draft, he has some ballhandling concerns but if he can work on that and expand his offensive game a bit, it could turn him from a solid bench guy into a solid starter.
Suns - This is another team who has a big need at the wing spot although Kaminsky, if he falls, would be a way for the Suns to reclaim a lot of the success that they had with Channing Frye. This is also an interesting spot for Turner as well as this is one of those teams that can get him to where he needs to be.
14. Stanley Johnson - I'm slightly more pessimistic on him than the consensus and it's because of his rigid game and his inefficiency on 2p'ers. He's more suited for a 3rd/4th option in an offense because of it and i think he can excel in that role.
Thunder - There is going to be a perceived need for a shooter and Devin Booker will be mentioned but he is a dangerous pick for anyone. I'm not sure if they called the Kanter experiment a success(I would say no) but Portis would be a great fit here. Cameron Payne is an interesting name depending on which direction Billy Donovan and Sam Presti want to go with the offense.
15. Cameron Payne - It's good to see Payne getting more recognition. He excels in transition so going to a team that is able to push the pace will benefit him.
Hawks - The rich get richer - This draft has about 15-17 good rotation guys and they will have some options at their disposal. They'll need it with Carroll and Millsap's impending free agency. They will probably go big with this pick given the options that will be available at this point. If you follow the projections, the names start to become very dicey right around here. I like Wood or Alexander as a fit whether or not Millsap comes back.
Stay tuned for Part 2 probably in a couple of weeks...
Not too much change,save for removing the folks who decided to go back to school. Poeltl and Dunn were the big annoucements and in the case of Dunn it was a curious choice although it will be nice to see him repeat a stellar season and solidify an early lotto rank next season.
Now that the draft order is set I've thrown in some analysis of the teams picking also... this is Part 1:
The Franchise
1. Karl Anthony Towns - He's a fairly clear #1 at this point as he has almost zero questions. He is roughly as good as Embiid was pre-injury and a slightly superior prospect to Blake Griffin coming out. A true center with a wide skillset don't come around often.
TWolves - There's some crazy talk about Flip Saunders being enamored with Okafor. If the Twolves pass on Towns it would be one of the draft's biggest mistakes ever. Trading the pick would be equally as bad. In terms of fit, it's going to be an odd pairing with Dieng. With Flip coaching as well, it's not the most ideal situation for him but there's enough talent on the team to get somewhere if Rubio can stay healthy and make some progress on his shot.
The Cornerstones
This tier is very close together. So close they are all essentially equal and interchangeable. All have valid claims for #2. All have a big question mark but have enough star potential where they are good deal better than everyone else.
2. DeAngelo Russell - Inside scoring is the main worry and if he doesn't find more ways to get in the paint, he will have something like a Ray Allen type of career, getting the majority of his points on jumpers and from beyond the arc. 2PA and 2P% are going to be key indicators for him early on. If he trades in his mid range pull up jumpers for shots in the paint, he will be amongst the league's best.
Lakers - They are a wild card at this spot. I think the likely choice will be Okafor but there's enough rumors going around that they could take one of Mudiay and Russell also. There's good arguments for any possibility, including a trade.
3. Justise Winslow- A tale of two halves:
1st half per 40
(2pa: 7.7) (2p%: .467) (3pa: 4.9) (3p%: .349) (rb:6.8) (stl: 1.25) (blk: 0.93)
2nd half per 40
(2pa: 9.8) (2p%: .552) (3pa: 2.9) (3p%: .488) (rb:11.0) (stl: 2.36) (blk: 1.48)
What does this mean? You might notice that he stopped shooting 3p'ers as much and traded those in for 2p shots. Looking at shot charts it looks like a good deal were at the rim. A lot of these were probably transition buckets but the story here is that he started asserting himself more, taking smarter shots and able to leverage his physical advantage on his opponents. All great signs. 17.3 pp40 is a low number though and looking at his shot chart a lot of his 3p'ers (90%) were assisted and his midrange is bad (27%). It points to a lack of elite creative ability. That leads to questions of how good he can be but there is a very good comparable here, one who he recently compared himself to, and that is Kawhi Leonard. An elite defender who scores efficiently, if not often, who took awhile to bring his offensive arsenal together. Their college numbers also look very similar. Winslow seems like the more offense less defense version of him. There's some level of safety in this pick as he passes most major benchmarks which is why he's rated ever so slightly over the next guy.
Sixers - Probably taking a guard although it doesn't seem like Winslow is on their radar. Russell and Mudiay both make sense. I give the edge to Russell.
4. Jahlil Okafor - If he were more of a Blake Griffin type of PF, he would be a consensus #2. He however fits the profile of a ground bound PF/C type which history does not look favorably upon. He looks to be taking the criticisms to heart though and working on his conditioning which is a very good sign. Keeping that up for his entire career though will be a challenge as well as working on his defense. If he keeps the weight in check then he will probably be an all-star talent but there's enough risk in the profile (blks, rbs) to be worried.
Knicks - Most saw this as a catastrophic drop but in a draft with a clear top 4 with 2-4 being so close together, it is not a bad position. Winslow seems the likely choice here with an interesting decision if the Lakers pass on Okafor.
The Mystery Man
5.Emmanuel Mudiay - Looks to be gaining back some of the hype that he lost with his China stint. There are still a lot of unknowns which keep him from being with the top group. The major question is his shot and how quickly he can get to a consistent level and whether he can leverage his athleticism to score in the paint enough to overcome that. No matter how good he is it will likely take 3 years before we see what he can actually be. Unless your name is Chris Paul or Magic Johnson it usually takes at least that long for a pg to find themselves as John Wall, Derrick Rose found out and Marcus Smart is now discovering. The China numbers were good enough to have some confidence in this ranking but it comes in the size of a grain of salt.
Magic - This is a key point for this franchise and will be an important decision. They have enough young players and a gaping hole at a frontcourt position that they can justify picking by need but, at least on my board, that could be a mistake. They are in need of a big man to play alongside Vucevic. Stein and Turner will be talked a lot about here. One of Winslow/Russell/Mudiay will be available though and I'd think long and hard about picking them if I were the Magic despite the presence of Gordon and Payton.
Solid
Both guys here are rated this high because they are fairly safe bets to contribute in a rotation for a long time . That has lots of value.
6. Willie Cauley-Stein - A center that can play defense, and be good against the PnR to boot, will always be coveted around the league. It's too bad he can't be trusted with the ball or he'd be alot higher.
Kings - Lots of big trade rumors will circulate with Cousins but I think he stays put. Porzingis will probably be slotted here and if he's actually taken then .. well .. they will deserve everything coming to them. Winslow is a no brainer if he happens to fall this far and Stein is also attractive to shore up a leaky defense.
7. Delon Wright - It's unlikely he will get picked this high and will give whatever team lucky enough to grab him tremendous value wherever he lands. I feel pretty confident in this ranking based on his repeat of a stellar junior year and his improvement from beyond the arc. Excellent defensive and ballhandling numbers. However, just like Mudiay, it will take him awhile to find his groove.
Nuggets - I have them pegged as the team most likely to make a deal, although not necessarily for this pick. A number of players on ok deals plus a lotto pick in no man's land. This is probably the worst spot in the lotto. It's an enticing spot for a team looking to trade down (Knicks? Magic?) who are targeting someone like Kaminsky or one of the leftover wings while picking up some veteran help(Lawson? Gallinari? Chandler? Faried?). They probably try to move up because they have a glut in the frontcourt. If they stand pat the options aren't attractive which would be their motivation for a deal but Oubre or Johnson make some sense.
Interesting But Risky Bigs
This the part of the draft where things start to get a bit risky. With the exception of Frank the Tank, they all have serious ballhandling/TO problems which is enough to torpedo any big man prospect and with Kaminsky you have defensive questions. The risk level will cause some, if not all, of them to drop on some boards. There is talent here however.
8. Myles Turner - It takes a village to raise a child and it will take a whole organization to get Turner to fulfill his potential. He's young enough where he's not hopeless but the numbers see a huge risk and scouts seem to agree. One thing in his favor is that It's not uncommon for big men to have a lackluster college career but find their game in the pros much like DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond and Roy Hibbert. There's a lot to like despite all of that and it's his ability to protect the rim combo'ed with his ability to hit an outside shot. That's a rare commodity which is the basis for this ranking despite the huge risk.
Pistons - They've had some success with the aforementioned Drummond so they might be tempted to take a similar risk in Turner which would be a bad idea for them. I like Portis here since Van Gundy has had good success with stretch 4 types.
9. Bobby Portis – He's a bit of a sleeper. He doesn't have a sexy game but he produces at a high level. I liken him to Markieff Morris and he might be a bit better. He's not as risky as the heading suggests but if he's asked to be a primary scorer then he will have problems.
Hornets - A franchise stuck in neutral. It makes sense for them to take on a bit more risk as their history of taking big college names have been mixed to put it mildly. A lot of players makes sense at this point since they have a lot of needs, but I foresee them going to the well again and taking Kaminsky.
10. Christian Wood - Another guy who probably won't be picked this high but there's some reward here for any team willing to take the plunge. John Henson is a good/bad comparable here but fortunately for Wood he has more offensive skills.
Heat - They will get a good player here but exactly who that will be is anyone's guess. This is where the consensus ranks start diverging from my ranks. Oubre/Johnson make the most sense based on need. Delon and Cameron Payne are also interesting if Dragic plans to ditch South Beach.
11. Frank Kaminsky - He should prove to be a solid offensive weapon in the pros but the defense is going to hold him back. I liken him to Vucevic, although the offensive game is different but the overall impact will probably be similar. If he can go to a team that can hide him defensively and play him more as a PF then he will flourish.
Pacers - They probably would've loved to have Kris Dunn if he declared. They have a hole at the 2 also so this looks like a spot for Stanley Johnson but I think Delon would fit nicely here too.
Rotation Guys
These guys could be anywhere from solid to fringe starters or good bench types. With so many team looking for help on the wing it is likely guys like Oubre and Johnson will be picked ahead of these spots but there's good value for any team looking to go big in this range.
12 Kelly Oubre - The one true SF out of the triumvirate of wings in this draft (Winslow and Johnson for the record, are better at SG imo). He'll need to be more aggressive going to the hole and finishing, as well as firming up his ballhandling but he's a solid pick with some upside for a team in this range.
Jazz - A young team on the upswing that desperately needs a pg. It's hard seeing them go after yet another one in the draft though. My guess is they go look in free agency for a veteran and hope Burke or Exum take a step forward. That leaves Oubre or Johnson as a logical choice with Oubre preferred.
13 Cliff Alexander – Profiles to be a PF/C with a long career. Like a lot of the bigs in this draft, he has some ballhandling concerns but if he can work on that and expand his offensive game a bit, it could turn him from a solid bench guy into a solid starter.
Suns - This is another team who has a big need at the wing spot although Kaminsky, if he falls, would be a way for the Suns to reclaim a lot of the success that they had with Channing Frye. This is also an interesting spot for Turner as well as this is one of those teams that can get him to where he needs to be.
14. Stanley Johnson - I'm slightly more pessimistic on him than the consensus and it's because of his rigid game and his inefficiency on 2p'ers. He's more suited for a 3rd/4th option in an offense because of it and i think he can excel in that role.
Thunder - There is going to be a perceived need for a shooter and Devin Booker will be mentioned but he is a dangerous pick for anyone. I'm not sure if they called the Kanter experiment a success(I would say no) but Portis would be a great fit here. Cameron Payne is an interesting name depending on which direction Billy Donovan and Sam Presti want to go with the offense.
15. Cameron Payne - It's good to see Payne getting more recognition. He excels in transition so going to a team that is able to push the pace will benefit him.
Hawks - The rich get richer - This draft has about 15-17 good rotation guys and they will have some options at their disposal. They'll need it with Carroll and Millsap's impending free agency. They will probably go big with this pick given the options that will be available at this point. If you follow the projections, the names start to become very dicey right around here. I like Wood or Alexander as a fit whether or not Millsap comes back.
Stay tuned for Part 2 probably in a couple of weeks...