Dr Positivity Mock Draft - Big Board

[Dr Positivity]

1. Minnesota Timberwolves - C Jahlil Okafor

The buzz is starting to go Okafor's way. Okafor vs Towns is emerging as "old school" (post up) big vs "new school" (value of spacing+defense). Flip runs the team like it's 2005 instead of 2015 which favors Okafor.

2. Los Angeles Lakers - C Karl Towns

Okafor and Towns are the likely top 2 picks and Towns fits well beside Randle

3. Philadelphia 76ers - PG D'Angelo Russell

Very stats friendly player and perfect fit for core lineup of Embiid, Noel, Saric

4. New York Knicks - PG Emmanuel Mudiay

No read on the Knicks but I guess they try to get a star penetrator in Mudiay

5. Orlando Magic - SF Mario Hezonja

Could be a traded pick since I feel Rob Hennigan is going into a win or fired year. They need a shooter at SF more than another defense-first player like Winslow

6. Sacramento Kings - SF Justise Winslow

I feel the Kings are going to moving Rudy Gay to PF. Drafting Winslow gives them a defensive SF replacement.

7. Denver Nuggets - PF Kristaps Porzingis

Porzingis has a lot of upside buzz right now and could be their pick for PF of the future beside Nurkic

8. Detroit Pistons - PF/C Frank Kaminsky

Pistons get their stretch 4 for Drummond

9. Charlotte Hornets - SG Devin Booker

They've needed to make this 3pt shooting 2 guard pick for a long time

10. Miami Heat - PF/C Willie Cauley-Stein

Heat get defensive depth at PF and C and if Whiteside eventually turns into too much of an idiot to keep they have a replacement

11. Indiana Pacers - PF/C Myles Turner

The signs point towards the Pacers as having had enough of Roy Hibbert. They allows them to get a big man replacement.

12. Utah Jazz - PF Bobby Portis

Going off the board a little here. But Portis provides stretch 4 play for the Jazz which they need beside Favors and Gobert.

13. Phoenix Suns - SF Stanley Johnson

Johnson is rated top 10 on a lot of mocks and would be rated good value here. He gives the Suns wing talent since Green and Tucker are the most long term of options

14. Oklahoma City Thunder - SF Sam Dekker

Normally Trey Lyles would feel like the Thunder-y pick here and they would put him in the D League as an asset to cash in on later. However starting last season the Thunder's moves have started to feel more short term driven and afraid of Durant leaving. So I will give them an older player they expect to be in the rotation next year.

15. Atlanta Hawks - SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

The Hawks defense without Thabo was not title caliber. Rondae can be a long term help

16. Boston Celtics - SF/PF Trey Lyles

Lyles isn't a perfect fit in their lineup but Ainge continues to get assets

17. Milwaukee Bucks - SG R.J. Hunter

Bucks need a shooter for that lineup

18. Houston Rockets - PG Cameron Payne

Rockets get young PG depth to long term replace the Prigioni/Terry spot.

19. Washington Wizards - SF/PF Kevon Looney

Wizards can't rely on Nene much longer and Looney gives them a talented 4

20. Toronto Raptors - PG Delon Wright

Wright could give them some perimeter defense off the bench compared to Vasquez.

21. Dallas Mavericks - C Robert Upshaw

The Mavericks start to think about the post Dirk era by going for a home run instead of a single

22. Chicago Bulls - PG Tyus Jones

Bulls still need to invest in backup PG position behind Rose

23. Portland Trail Blazers - PF Montrezl Harrell

With LMA potentially out the Blazers get a PF who can defend in Harrell

24. Cleveland Cavaliers - SF Justin Anderson

Anderson could be a nice fit for the Cavs as 3 and D player

25. Memphis Grizzlies - SG Rashad Vaughn

Grizzlies still need more shooting

26. San Antonio Spurs - PG Jerian Grant

The Spurs may have to let Cory Joseph go this summer for free agent reasons so this gives them another talented PG to fill in

27. Los Angeles Lakers - SF Kelly Oubre

Projected to go higher than this, Lakers feel they get a high upside wing

28. Boston Celtics - C Chris McCullough

Celtics try to get a badly needed defensive big

29. Brooklyn Nets - PF Christian Wood

I don't know, Nets try to get an immediately productive player?

30. Golden State Warriors - PF/C Cliff Alexander

Chances are nobody they pick here is playing soon, so Alexander rides the bench for a while and maybe gets some minutes filling in for Bogut injury at some point

[Slava]

Oubre at #27 would be crazy good value for the Lakers.

[Dr Positivity]

Big Board:

My system is a crazy combination of subjective (evaluating how talented someone is with a system I have developed for several years) and objective/data (to determine "how likely someone is to reach their talent" using analytics, traditional production (PER adjusted by age), and draft position). It's apparently popular in the NHL scouting community to use a system like this. They give a player a grade like 9B - 9 for talent, B for how likely they are to reach their talent. Anyways my current top 30 and the score beside them:

1. C Karl-Anthony Towns: 22
2. C Jahlil Okafor: 22
3. PG/SG D'Angelo Russell: 22
4. PF/C Frank Kaminsky: 19
5. PF/C Myles Turner: 17.1
6. SF Stanley Johnson: 17.1
7. SF Justise Winslow: 17.0
8. SF Mario Hezonja: 16.8
9. PG Emmanuel Mudiay: 16.0
10. PG Delon Wright: 15.4
11. PG George De Paula: 15.2
12. C Guillermo Hernangomez: 15.2
13. C Willie Cauley-Stein: 15
14. PG Cameron Payne: 14.7
15. SF Timothe Luwawu: 14.4
16. PF Kristaps Porzingis: 14.4
17. C Arturas Gudaitis: 14.4
18. SF Sam Dekker: 14.4
19. PG Tyus Jones: 14.3
20. PF Kevon Looney: 13.6
21. PF Aleksander Vezenkov: 13.6
22. SF Kelly Oubre: 13.6
23. PF Bobby Portis: 13.6
24. PF Richaun Holmes: 13.3
25. PF Moussa Diagne: 12.8
26. PF Christian Wood: 12.8
27. C Robert Upshaw: 12.6
28. SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson: 12.6
29. PG Jerian Grant: 12.0
30. C Mouhammadou Jaiteh: 12.0

Some Euro guys look high. Did not attempt to interpret Euro stats and instead gave them all a flat mediocre score in the "reaching talent" data part, but once compared to NCAA prospects who rank out of the top 30, that flat mediocre score starts to look good. Perhaps that's how it should be - no useful numbers and high variance in the case of guys like De Paula or Luwawu who've barely played anyone, is more desirable than having bad NCAA numbers that all but doom a player. I am surprised to have heard very little about Hernangomez and Gudaitis as they both appear to be putting up same caliber productivity as Porzingis and Hezonja against high level competition like ACB and Euroleague, Eurocup, which when dealing with young center prospects is attention grabbing. Hernangomez is slow but looks strong and has post moves, Gudaitis is springy athlete, from a glance I would rate both to have NBA bodies.

In my model that takes into account draft position/conventional scouting less than the above, Delon Wright ranks 5th behind the top 3 and Kaminsky (the rest of the top 10 is very similar as in the above). Kaminsky looks great when taking into account how he's been rated a legit top 7 guy by analytics, unlike some of the other white senior POY picks in the past

Devin Booker and Trey Lyles are two of the big fallers compared to conventional wisdom. For players where the numbers don't back up their case, would need to see more exciting talent than what they provide. Rondae and Montrezl were two players that I was subjectively high on before doing this and came out surprisingly bad, especially a mess for Montrezl, numbers just weren't there.

[MalonesElbows]

If all those second round picks turn out to be players, it will be a record. I do agree with some of them (I hate Oubre, like Luwawu)