Fischella's NBA Mock Draft 2017

[No-Man]

What are you thoughts/reasons for the Mavs picking Donovan Mitchell over De'Aaron Fox? The reason I'm asking is because the Mavs biggest need right now is PG. Also they have been heavily scouting Fox, Smith, and Ntilikina. Donovan Mitchell would be a nice player to have however a combo guard is not really what they need, especially considering the way Curry played last year.

I am not a fan of Fox, I understand the thinking there and I'd not fault Dallas if they take him but having the wrong initiator can be really damaging, even if you believe in Fox's shooting somehow (and even then he's likely not gonna be a diverse shooter or a threat off ball so you can't really create out of other guys because then you play 4 on 5 offensively) there are other concerns like his strength level and the fact that he relies on athleticism and quicks to get to the basket and he isnt gonna be able to finish at the same rate with his frame, especially his legs.

For a middling team or a team that aspires to be okay, I can get behind drafting Fox, Dallas actually could be one of those, but if you are truly aiming to be the best you can I think Mitchell brings more value overall and Fox if anything can bring value eventually via trade kind of.

It has to do with the way I see basketball and the draft more than how good is or isn't De'Aaron Fox, I have him there at 18th because that's about where the situation made sense, both for the team, IND might need a ton of help creating if PG is traded and Teague let go, and also where his value eventually can make up for the jump from where I have him in my board in terms of basic value on court (which would be around 23-25th, the highest I can go to a back-up PG) compared to that range in the late teens.

And also about Dallas biggest needs, I am not convinced Dallas has a long-time starter at any spot, maybe Center with Noel (and that's why I don't have them drafting Collins whom I like better than Donovan) although injuries and PF with Barnes, although I'd be okay cashing in with him, but still, nothing that will stop me from drafting Mitchell.
Rookies suck, unless they are generationally great, so it's not like Fox is gonna make a difference regardless, talking about need it's kind of silly imo.

[Village Idiot]

For Portland I'd be very interested to hear your thoughts on the guys you have us picking. Dozier doesn't fill a need and seems like a reach. The other two aren't even on most mocks.

Dozier for me does fill a need, he can defend 1-3 with ease, has amazing tools on that end, I like his poise, he can really pass and doesnt get speed up, really economic with his drives also, plays aggressive and his ability to be mixed with starters just because of sheer size, he is likely a back-up perimeter guy but a swiss army knife type that can do it all and, if he ever shoots you have an amazing wing player, even if he doesnt you might get more athletic Shaun Livingston.
Portland has CJ and Dame, but not much behind them, Turner probably gets dumped eventually and they can use another guy that can make plays and really defend, it's an upside play, I like Dozier in that regard better than Thornwell, and White makes 0 sense with Dame and CJ.

Simanic is basically a bet I'd be willing to make because you've got 3 1sts, he is a PF that might be able to play some C if he ever fills out, super quick and smooth, amazing jumper, quick mechanics, the issue is he doesnt have the IQ, hasnt played much pro ball, and he is weak, plays with no force or physicality, I am not sure you can change that, but he has intriguing tools and at that point in the Draft I think is a bet that makes sense.

As for Cyrille, he is basically a typical 3&D prospect, small sample size with the 3 but has fluid mechanics and consistent ones, his shot aint flat also, he has length, and a chiseled body, can attack close-outs, drive a little, he is not as strong or athletic as OG, but is that type of prospect, help defender, can hopefully shoot some, play some 3 and some 4, and maybe be a better shooter than Aminu, which is something Portland could certainly use.

Thanks for the detailed answer. I don't feel you really take Portland's direction in mind though. We really want to win sooner rather than later and three reaches seem like a way for Olshey to get fired. Paul Allen loves the draft and buys 2nd round picks like they're happy hour margaritas so the latter two can surely be picked up with a lower pick.

Dozier is a nice to have, not a need to have guy. He's 46 on DX and 26 on NBAdraft so unless they are way off no need to waste the 15 on him.

Honestly I doubt Portland stays where they are though. I can see us using the 15 and 20, and probably other assets) to move up and draft either a SF (Tatum or Issac) or a PF (Z. Collins or Markannan). I wouldn't be surprised either if the 26 is used to dump Myers Leonard. I would also like to see a 2nd or two used to acquire Bolden, Bell or Motley.

I love Donovan Mitchell btw. I honestly can't fathom what anyone sees in Monk or Fox over him. Heck, I even like him a lot more than Ball or DJ Smith. He reminds me a lot of Wade.

[No-Man]

For Portland I'd be very interested to hear your thoughts on the guys you have us picking. Dozier doesn't fill a need and seems like a reach. The other two aren't even on most mocks.

Dozier for me does fill a need, he can defend 1-3 with ease, has amazing tools on that end, I like his poise, he can really pass and doesnt get speed up, really economic with his drives also, plays aggressive and his ability to be mixed with starters just because of sheer size, he is likely a back-up perimeter guy but a swiss army knife type that can do it all and, if he ever shoots you have an amazing wing player, even if he doesnt you might get more athletic Shaun Livingston.
Portland has CJ and Dame, but not much behind them, Turner probably gets dumped eventually and they can use another guy that can make plays and really defend, it's an upside play, I like Dozier in that regard better than Thornwell, and White makes 0 sense with Dame and CJ.

Simanic is basically a bet I'd be willing to make because you've got 3 1sts, he is a PF that might be able to play some C if he ever fills out, super quick and smooth, amazing jumper, quick mechanics, the issue is he doesnt have the IQ, hasnt played much pro ball, and he is weak, plays with no force or physicality, I am not sure you can change that, but he has intriguing tools and at that point in the Draft I think is a bet that makes sense.

As for Cyrille, he is basically a typical 3&D prospect, small sample size with the 3 but has fluid mechanics and consistent ones, his shot aint flat also, he has length, and a chiseled body, can attack close-outs, drive a little, he is not as strong or athletic as OG, but is that type of prospect, help defender, can hopefully shoot some, play some 3 and some 4, and maybe be a better shooter than Aminu, which is something Portland could certainly use.

Thanks for the detailed answer. I don't feel you really take Portland's direction in mind though. We really want to win sooner rather than later and three reaches seem like a way for Olshey to get fired. Paul Allen loves the draft and buys 2nd round picks like they're happy hour margaritas so the latter two can surely be picked up with a lower pick.

Dozier is a nice to have, not a need to have guy. He's 46 on DX and 26 on NBAdraft so unless they are way off no need to waste the 15 on him.

Honestly I doubt Portland stays where they are though. I can see us using the 15 and 20, and probably other assets) to move up and draft either a SF (Tatum or Issac) or a PF (Z. Collins or Markannan). I wouldn't be surprised either if the 26 is used to dump Myers Leonard. I would also like to see a 2nd or two used to acquire Bolden, Bell or Motley.

I love Donovan Mitchell btw. I honestly can't fathom what anyone sees in Monk or Fox over him. Heck, I even like him a lot more than Ball or DJ Smith. He reminds me a lot of Wade.

They are reaches on your mind because you are basically riding the waves of those sites, which include tertiary interests like agencies and stuff, they pump guys because they get paid to do so.
Who would you want early instead? 1 of the 20-30 back-up bigs that are in this class? why?
As for winning early, no realistic draft choice at that stage, 15, 20 and 26 is gonna make you win soon, that's just not how it works, rookies for the most part suck.

I can't see POR been able to move up enough to get to Isaac/Tatum range and I don't see why would you move up for Collins unless you aren't in on Nurkic, they are both Centers, Markkanen is another story, but the Blazers have a top5-10 offense already, they don't need more weapons.

I'd be on board with using a pick to dump Leonard of course, Bell is an interesting name, I'd be cool with him even at 20th, it's one of the guys I thought about, it's just that he can't shoot for the most part and we've seen in the Playoffs what happened to the Blazers offense when GS floated basically everybody but CJ, Dame and Crabbe and they couldn't make a 3, Bell could certainly improve your defense, but the team needs 2-way guys, and those are the ones I've targeted at those spots.

[RipCity71252]

I'm fine with Dozier at #15 if Z. Collins and Mitchell are gone. I'm not spending that pick on a long-term back-up 5 and I think Dozier has the highest ceiling of all the non-lottery wings plus an underrated floor due to tools+fluidity+defense+ball handling+passing.

Ideal situation would be Z. Collins at #15 (I still think there's an outside shot he drops this far) and Dozier at #20.

[Kolkmania]

What are you thoughts/reasons for the Mavs picking Donovan Mitchell over De'Aaron Fox? The reason I'm asking is because the Mavs biggest need right now is PG. Also they have been heavily scouting Fox, Smith, and Ntilikina. Donovan Mitchell would be a nice player to have however a combo guard is not really what they need, especially considering the way Curry played last year.

I am not a fan of Fox, I understand the thinking there and I'd not fault Dallas if they take him but having the wrong initiator can be really damaging, even if you believe in Fox's shooting somehow (and even then he's likely not gonna be a diverse shooter or a threat off ball so you can't really create out of other guys because then you play 4 on 5 offensively) there are other concerns like his strength level and the fact that he relies on athleticism and quicks to get to the basket and he isnt gonna be able to finish at the same rate with his frame, especially his legs.

For a middling team or a team that aspires to be okay, I can get behind drafting Fox, Dallas actually could be one of those, but if you are truly aiming to be the best you can I think Mitchell brings more value overall and Fox if anything can bring value eventually via trade kind of.

It has to do with the way I see basketball and the draft more than how good is or isn't De'Aaron Fox, I have him there at 18th because that's about where the situation made sense, both for the team, IND might need a ton of help creating if PG is traded and Teague let go, and also where his value eventually can make up for the jump from where I have him in my board in terms of basic value on court (which would be around 23-25th, the highest I can go to a back-up PG) compared to that range in the late teens.

And also about Dallas biggest needs, I am not convinced Dallas has a long-time starter at any spot, maybe Center with Noel (and that's why I don't have them drafting Collins whom I like better than Donovan) although injuries and PF with Barnes, although I'd be okay cashing in with him, but still, nothing that will stop me from drafting Mitchell.
Rookies suck, unless they are generationally great, so it's not like Fox is gonna make a difference regardless, talking about need it's kind of silly imo.

I don't get your way of thinking, drafting Donovan Mitchell is basically settling for a role player on a championship team (which is great value), but for teams like Dallas Mavericks who lack talent at every single position, you aim for the stars with your pick. We had our arguments about De'Aaron Fox back in November and I know you (and Cole Zwicker, Marc Whittington, etc.) don't like him at all, but let's say for the sake of arguments, he does shoot at a decent clip. Isn't his ceiling far higher than Donovan Mitchell, since he's one of the 2/3 players in this draft with an actual elite(!) skill, his burst?

[No-Man]

I'm fine with Dozier at #15 if Z. Collins and Mitchell are gone. I'm not spending that pick on a long-term back-up 5 and I think Dozier has the highest ceiling of all the non-lottery wings plus an underrated floor due to tools+fluidity+defense+ball handling+passing.

Ideal situation would be Z. Collins at #15 (I still think there's an outside shot he drops this far) and Dozier at #20.

That one would be neat, I'd be pretty shocked if Collins doesn't get picked before, either by one of those teams, If I were Miami I'd take him without thinking twice and trade Whiteside sooner rather than later, or by a team moving up pass Portland targeting him.

[No-Man]

I don't get your way of thinking, drafting Donovan Mitchell is basically settling for a role player on a championship team (which is great value), but for teams like Dallas Mavericks who lack talent at every single position, you aim for the stars with your pick. We had our arguments about De'Aaron Fox back in November and I know you (and Cole Zwicker, Marc Whittington, etc.) don't like him at all, but let's say for the sake of arguments, he does shoot at a decent clip. Isn't his ceiling far higher than Donovan Mitchell, since he's one of the 2/3 players in this draft with an actual elite(!) skill, his burst?

Not liking him at all is rash, I like for what I think he is, I def think he can be a really good player for a certain team, I just can't see him been a big part of a really successful one, and I am not interested in that long-term, he can get you to make a jump to get to a level and maybe his value gets high enough that you can trade him for pieces that all together bring more than Mitchell but if we are talking straight up about value on court, 10-15y career of the guy you pick I'd go with Mitchell ahead of Fox pretty easily.

Aiming for the stars is cool when one is available, team building is critical and the median return for a 9th pick is normally below a role player in a championship team, so I am cool with that, it's not like I am here talking up Mitchell or selling him like the next great Guard.
As for Fox burst, I am a contrarian among draftnerds, even if you count Marc and def Cole, and I am not a fan of his ability to get to the rim, I think he lacks balance, def power and strength, and that he is handles and moves aren't all that crisp or advanced, his advanced metrics are elite there, but I think there is more than just that to the analysis, the physicality and level of defenses he is gonna face+his inability to shoot is gonna limit him much more than people think.

I'd not be mad if Dallas takes him tohugh, only a handful of teams are truly competitive, so if all we got is Dallas been a treadmill team that makes the Playoffs and can cash-in trading Fox down-the-road, welp, why not?
My dream choice is still Frank or Isaac falling to us though.

And even if he gets to shoot some he is never going to be good enough there to be a consistent off-ball player, and he ain't good enough to warrant the type of usage you need to give that type of Guard to be productive and your team to be good, that's the main issue with him, even his best case scenario is terribly flawed, and I am not even going through that type of pain related to how many things you need to do team-building wise to accommodate your schemes, system and players to him, he ain't worth it.

[Kolkmania]

I don't get your way of thinking, drafting Donovan Mitchell is basically settling for a role player on a championship team (which is great value), but for teams like Dallas Mavericks who lack talent at every single position, you aim for the stars with your pick. We had our arguments about De'Aaron Fox back in November and I know you (and Cole Zwicker, Marc Whittington, etc.) don't like him at all, but let's say for the sake of arguments, he does shoot at a decent clip. Isn't his ceiling far higher than Donovan Mitchell, since he's one of the 2/3 players in this draft with an actual elite(!) skill, his burst?

Not liking him at all is rash, I like for what I think he is, I def think he can be a really good player for a certain team, I just can't see him been a big part of a really successful one, and I am not interested in that long-term, he can get you to make a jump to get to a level and maybe his value gets high enough that you can trade him for pieces that all together bring more than Mitchell but if we are talking straight up about value on court, 10-15y career of the guy you pick I'd go with Mitchell ahead of Fox pretty easily.

Aiming for the stars is cool when one is available, team building is critical and the median return for a 9th pick is normally below a role player in a championship team, so I am cool with that, it's not like I am here talking up Mitchell or selling him like the next great Guard.
As for Fox burst, I am a contrarian among draftnerds, even if you count Marc and def Cole, and I am not a fan of his ability to get to the rim, I think he lacks balance, def power and strength, and that he is handles and moves aren't all that crisp or advanced, his advanced metrics are elite there, but I think there is more than just that to the analysis, the physicality and level of defenses he is gonna face+his inability to shoot is gonna limit him much more than people think.

I'd not be mad if Dallas takes him tohugh, only a handful of teams are truly competitive, so if all we got is Dallas been a treadmill team that makes the Playoffs and can cash-in trading Fox down-the-road, welp, why not?
My dream choice is still Frank or Isaac falling to us though.

And even if he gets to shoot some he is never going to be good enough there to be a consistent off-ball player, and he ain't good enough to warrant the type of usage you need to give that type of Guard to be productive and your team to be good, that's the main issue with him, even his best case scenario is terribly flawed, and I am not even going through that type of pain related to how many things you need to do team-building wise to accommodate your schemes, system and players to him, he ain't worth it.

Ok, fair points. I absolutely agree with your take on the importance of being (nearly) elite if you're not capable of playing off the ball, otherwise you're just holding your team back. Think that Elfrid Payton is a great example.

Think the main difference between us is the actual player evaluation. I agree that his percentage and mainly the low volume of his three pointers this year is worrisome, but I don't think his form is all that bad and he shot 34% on 500 attempts in high school according to MaxPreps, FT%'s has been solid as well. So I'm in the camp thinking that Fox could develop a decent three pointer in time, that negates the off ball problems to a certain degree (still not a great cutter, etc).

His handles aren't fancy like Markelle Fultz, but his in-and-out and crossovers are efficient, he gets to the rim at will. Late in the season he showed the ability to snake the P&R and put defenders on his back. I also think that he's stronger than his thin frame suggests, he's capable of scoring through contact. Obviously he did something good since his stats in that aspect are great. The SEC and March tournament showed Fox' capabilities imo.

[doordoor123]

This might sound odd, but I really appreciate your perspective. I've been a little too vocal this year and I've noticed you haven't been commenting too much on this draft (maybe because of your podcast). Would love to hear more from you.

[No-Man]

I got a board up there at the last minute so if anybody wanna know how their team did, go check it out
http://www.odetooden.com/

it's **** long, and basically 90% of it it's me explaining my line of thinking, if you just wanna end up seeing the Tiers of guys I considered worth drafting you can scroll down.

I missed some guys like Giles basically but you get the idea.

[PLO]

Thanks for the efforts Fis; love your podcast and the work you put into looking at the overseas guys especially. Hoping you guys do a draft winners and losers at some stage.