Post#138 » by GimmeDat » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:53 pm
Post draft, Mid-SL thoughts. This will likely be the last update I do to this one -
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Glad I had Carter at 6, was really in to him by the end. I could never quite get to the point of Carter > Bagley, but it won't surprise me at all if that's how it turns out. Bagley just has so much upside to me, and while his defense is still a notable question mark, at least we're seeing his shot blocking coming back. It's worth noting that his shot blocking is from fully committing to a leap and swatting balls because of his shorter arms, which is riskier and not as functionally effective as guys like Bamba that can simply go vertical and not always jump, and worth noting that Carter is really popping as a defender as well. Was never too concerned with Carter's feet but it was still a little question mark which he's quickly squashed.
Bulls should be stoked with how the draft played out for them.
Kings reached at 2 for Bagley. It was a mistake and will likely prove to be a mistake in 10 years time. But it's worth noting that Bagley has the potential to justify that position. He just has a LONG way to go and I'm not sure he gets there.
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Some people were just waiting to rip on Trae the moment he looked to struggle at the next level, but he'll be fine. I said somewhere that his worth will somewhat boil down to whether his shot selection/mindset will change in an NBA situation, so far it's exactly the same, but it is SL... we'll see what happens when he gets a full NBA squad around him. Still, the hype was legit. I think the biggest question is the driving/FT rate translation. His best impact will be if he can become a Nash like balanced guy. His defense has looked *slightly* more passable as well.
ATL passed on Doncic, which I can never condone. Trae's pick at 5 was fine. They went in to the draft looking for shooters and they got them, I firmly believe in Heurter and Spellman, they were nice picks for their ranges, and both those guys can play D, so kudos for them for picking a philosophy and sticking to it. I also like Prince a lot, he's set for a big year, not that that should've stopped them from taking Doncic. But they're nicely rounded, J.Collins looks great also, they've got an extra 1st coming via DAL (though they're going to be a lot better next season so not as valuable as it may seem at 1st glance).
Not a fan of the draft day deal, still pretty fine with their outlook. Early days, they've got some nice pieces, got a nice team building philosophy going, but they're going to have to find some star power at some point.
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MPJ obviously was always a stock enigma because no one knew the extent of his injury and rehab timeline. I never really loved MPJ in the first place, but because of the inability to truly scout him to the same extent of the other prospects, I gave some leeway for his stock back in HS and the overall reputation following him. Even now at 8 I look at it and think 'eh', but knowing he dropped to 14, I love the pick for Denver. I'm a big fan of the long game, just look at the Kings with Giles at 20, Denver could do with another big piece and MPJ could be that for them in a couple of years down the track, and on a rookie deal to boot.
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I went full circle on Knox all season, and boy am I glad I came around positively at the end, but early returns are suggesting an even higher spot was warranted. I couldn't not factor it in, but you can never underestimate the ability for guys to be misused and look like trash at Kentucky. I LOVED Knox out of HS, think I had him 7 or 8, it's on the 1st page here, and I think I'm seeing that Knox again now, which is a special player. I don't feel too silly because there were a bunch of issues worth hesitating over from his college season, heck he didn't even show flashes of what he's doing right now in SL outside of maybe that one 34 point game.
He's still going to have his limitations once he gets in to the actual season, but being so young and with the dynamism he's shown so far, I'm optimistic he's going to be a stud down the road. Don't want to get too reactionary from SL play, but early impressions like everyone else have left me much higher than how he looked at Kentucky, which really soured me on him. In the Kevin Knox thread I said he's a stud on paper, but it's all tools right now and he wasn't putting anything together outside of his shooting. Right now, he's looking like a guy that can put it all together. Probably the #1 guy I wish I had higher.
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Troy Brown is a guy I'm happy I committed to and put high, I love his game and he's balling right now in SL. His feel is obvious, he's flat out making plays, he's got good touch around the rim, passable athleticism with strong length, and his jumper looks better than college and can continue to improve. Wiz got a good one.
Lonnie Walker I was high on the vast majority of the season.. I dropped him at one point to late teen's, maybe 20 or so, but ended up bringing him back up. I'm watching SL and thinking maybe he's going to have some feel and efficiency issues for a lot of his career, and that might really hurt his value as an NBA player, but for a guy with his dynamism, to be put in the Spurs system, is pretty promising. He can make plays, he can defend, if that can be refined he will probably live up to his above big board ranking here.
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Robert Williams obviously had a bunch of red flags come up during the pre-draft process that we weren't privy to that dropped him, so that's another 'asterix' guy like MPJ. A great risk/reward pick for Boston at the end of the 1st all issues considered. He's got a great coach, a great system, his skill-set plugs right in to what they could do with. He has all the gifts/talent to have a great year contributing to a winning team.. it just seems only obstacle is himself, and perhaps his health as well. One to watch.
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SGA's pretty legit, my gut feeling is to say kudos to those that had him even higher than me. Though I had him 17 on the final BB, I had him 11 or so in most of my mocks, which goes to show that I think that tier was all pretty tight. Him and Sexton are two very different players, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see SGA become the better pro, but again I side with dynamism and upside just a little bit more. It's hard to bet against the infectious aura of Young Bull. He's got some major limitations right now though, and again, at one point I dropped him out of the lottery altogether because I was really skeptical. I'm looking out for his PG play, I'm pretty skeptical on that one. But in CLE, an interesting position to come in and do some things.
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Melton dropping an obvious WTF. Houston, you got a steal. Happy with him at 19 here before the draft and still happy with him now. Dude's a stud impact swiss army knife guard and he's not even shooting it that badly.
Ditto Okobo, this man was slept on by some, I like him there at 20, I think he should've gone anywhere in that 20-30 range, in the 2nd round it was a steal for Phoenix especially given their PG need. Great PG play and shooting ability, has length to theoretically play defense at least.
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I get teams being put off by Mitchell Robinson, he's a bit of an airhead, but he fell too far for a guy with his upside. He's already showing his impact as a pure athlete, it's nuts. I get passing on him for someone else in the 20's, I don't get it anywhere in the 30's. Hopefully for the Knicks sake his career stays on the straight and narrow and he learns to iron out some of the bonheadedness (skeptical but he has value regardless).
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DiVincenzo was a reach imo. Grayson was a reach. Maybe I was a bit harsh on Allen, he probably deserved to at least be in the 35-50 range, maybe even a tad higher, but I just can't agree with him in the 1st round. Doesn't help that I don't like him either.
Both those guys can be decent NBA players, but I can't envision either of them as anything more than spot starters, think they're likely backup guys and weren't deserving of near mid-1st selection.
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Shamet - great fit on Philly. Should be a good rotation player for them.
Penava - no clue why he went undrafted, haven't really followed up on that or watched him in SL, all I know is he can be an NBA caliber player.
Alkins - was never really that high on him as a prospect but with his tools I don't get why he wasn't at least drafted.
Duval - Ditto above. Just the chance that NBA spacing and PnR game would open up his game was enough reason for him to be picked in the 2nd round imo. He's had a couple of good SL performances as well.
J.Robinson - I could see him looking good and workouts and working his way in to 1st round selection, sure, but I refuse to believe he was worth being picked as high as he did. I think he'll be a good scorer, and his facilitating puts him a tier above other scorers like Trier, Newman, etc., but he just doesn't bring much else to the table. Late 1st, sure, lottery pick, eh.
Bates-Diop - didn't completely surprise me that he fell out of the 1st, but once again, that guy simply shouldn't have dropped as far as he did given his production and skill-set for the modern NBA. Between he and Okogie the Wolves may have single handedly fixed their issue with defense on the wings. Great steal.
Musa - Glad I dropped him through the season, he's a talented scorer but a defensive sieve and a bit narrow focused. Don't blame teams for him dropping to the very late 1st, but also great upside in that range. He's super young. At minimum he needs to prove he can hit the NBA 3 effectively, then work on everything else that isn't scoring. People forget how big he is as well though.
No one else really stands out as worth commenting on. A lot to be decided yet, who knows how things will pan out, but nearly a month after the draft and the only thing I really feel much differently about is Knox, who looks like a different player from his college game.
