The-Power's Big Board

[The-Power]

My big board with the relatively little information we have about many players in this draft class thus far. I'm mostly interested to see how my own assessment and opinion changes over the course of the year, so I figure it doesn't hurt to have it publicly posted somewhere. Spaces refer to different tiers, order (especially within the tiers) is very fluid.

Top 20

Luka Doncic

Mo Bamba
Jaren Jackson
Michael Porter
Marvin Bagley
DeAndre Ayton

Mikal Bridges
Wendell Carter
Troy Brown
Miles Bridges
Trae Young

Collin Sexton
Kevin Knox
Mitchell Robinson*
Killian Tillie
Anfernee Simons*
Isaac Bonga*

Gary Trent
Lonnie Walker
Robert Williams

* = players that I wanted to list because of their upside but about whom I do not know enough to really justify ranking them at a particular spot, i.e. they are even more likely than others to move way up or down my board

About 40-50 players in my spreadsheet that I could see becoming potential first round picks (meaning here: end up in the top 30 on my Big Board). So this is a very rough first draft and especially after the third tier it was really difficult to list the players and decide to leave some of them out. Still very early days and I'm learning new things about the prospects with each passing day.

PS: Yes, this is the Official Mikal Bridges Fanclub posting here. He totally won me over even though, if I was a GM, I'd probably consider drafting him closer to #12 than to #7 myself. Wouldn't be surprised if he eventually turns out to be a top 7 player out of this draft class, though.

[No-Man]

We have the same top12 guys, actually I didn't rank Troy Brown Jr. just cause I feel like he is gonna be a 2y guy, I am finding pretty difficult to actually have any other guy close to those 11, probably some of the consensus like Robinson, Knox, Walker, Bruce Brown etc would be there, but as of now I am not particularly high on any.

Musa is growing on me, which I never thought would happen.

[The-Power]

We have the same top12 guys, actually I didn't rank Troy Brown Jr. just cause I feel like he is gonna be a 2y guy, I am finding pretty difficult to actually have any other guy close to those 11, probably some of the consensus like Robinson, Knox, Walker, Bruce Brown etc would be there, but as of now I am not particularly high on any.

We indeed seem to agree a lot on prospects in general.

Troy Brown could very well stay for a second year which would be good for him unless he blows up later in the season. Grow further into the leader role at Oregon with national exposure (second-year Brown with Bol Bol, Pritchard and a bunch of solid role players should be a scary team) and enter the 2019 draft as one of the youngest Sophomores. Could easily enter the top 5 with a great Sophomore year. Lonnie Walker could also benefit from coming back to Miami, and maybe Trent as well if his shooting doesn't improve significantly over the course of the season.

Musa is growing on me, which I never thought would happen.

Haven't seen much of Musa besides highlights and following his stats. Is he growing on you enough to warrant lottery pick consideration?

[blazeyo]

I like your list. I also love Mikal Bridges and I love Musa aswell.

Bridges has super role-player potential. Reminds me of a longer, better defender version of Middleton.

[The-Power]

I like your list. I also love Mikal Bridges and I love Musa aswell.

Bridges has super role-player potential. Reminds me of a longer, better defender version of Middleton.

Gracias!

Do you believe there are more on-ball skills hidden in Mikal that he cannot showcase at Villanova for some reason? Middleton, I feel, has always benefited a lot from being able to create his own midrange shot consistently. I'm not sure if we should expect Bridges to be able to do that anytime soon or at all. But yes, he can surely surpass him as a defender as Middleton has never been that good on defense.

When I think of what I want Bridges to become – and what I believe he can become – I think of Otto Porter in his current role with the Wizards. Bridges can even be a more impactful defender (he has the edge on Porter when he was his age although Porter developed nicely in this regard later on) but maybe not quite as consistent as a shooter (possible but Porter has set the bar pretty high as of late). Give me the good chance at getting something similar to current Otto Porter with a pick outside the top 5 and I'll take it each and every time (in theory; in reality and in that 5-10 range I might be tempted to draft a guy with more perceived upside as a GM if I was rebuilding).

[blazeyo]

I like your list. I also love Mikal Bridges and I love Musa aswell.

Bridges has super role-player potential. Reminds me of a longer, better defender version of Middleton.

Gracias!

Do you believe there are more on-ball skills hidden in Mikal that he cannot showcase at Villanova for some reason? Middleton, I feel, has always benefited a lot from being able to create his own midrange shot consistently. I'm not sure if we should expect Bridges to be able to do that anytime soon or at all. But yes, he can surely surpass him as a defender as Middleton has never been that good on defense.

When I think of what I want Bridges to become – and what I believe he can become – I think of Otto Porter in his current role with the Wizards. Bridges can even be a more impactful defender (he has the edge on Porter when he was his age although Porter developed nicely in this regard later on) but maybe not quite as consistent as a shooter (possible but Porter has set the bar pretty high as of late). Give me the good chance at getting something similar to current Otto Porter with a pick outside the top 5 and I'll take it each and every time (in theory; in reality and in that 5-10 range I might be tempted to draft a guy with more perceived upside as a GM if I was rebuilding).

Nope. I don't think Mikal has tons of on-ball skills at the moment. I do think he can develop them in due time. I don't think he will ever develop a good post up game, but I feel like similar to Porter like yo u said he can attack off of close outs. Offensively, it all depends how his 3pt shot is going to translate. If he becomes a even an above average 3pt shooter in the next level then it's going to be huge for his game.
With his length and 1 step vertical he is going to be an elite finisher at the NBA level for sure.

I compared him to Middleton because of their build, position and shooting form. Middleton has a much quicker release though and that's why he thrives in the post. Unless Bridges improves his release signifcantly, I can't see how he is going to be a good post player.

He is one of the most sure fire players in this bust fest of a draft. I feel like he is going to be an RPM darling pretty fast.

I like the Otto Porter comparison, but Otto Porter is quicker with the ball and has a better jumpshot off the dribble. Birdges is a better defender for sure.

[The-Power]

This is my ‘way too early, extended big board‘. Grouped into (still rather arbitrary) tiers, and I tried to look at it completely from my own point of view with as little regard for prevalent rankings as possible.

Disclaimer:

Spoiler:

#1: I do not feel confident in any rankings past a certain point given that there is still way too much uncertainty, both for me personally who needs to watch more footage of many of the players as well as for the players who are going to look better or worse at this point than they actually are given the small sample. Extended scouting for the top prospects is possible but when it comes to the lower-tier prospects it's going to take until late March or even until the draft before I can be more comfortable with the rankings and really defend them with conviction.

#2: In order to avoid fixed rankings, I grouped the guys into tiers. Especially within the tiers everything is really fluid and can change rather quickly. But even movement between the tiers is not that difficult at this point, especially in the lower tiers, and I'm fairly certain I missed some players who deserve attention – I only have 103 players in my spreadsheet of interesting prospects which definitely does not cover all the talents worthy of consideration. If you see an omission please don't hesitate to let me know – they might be in the lower tiers I won't post (and I will re-consider my stance on them) or I might just have missed them. This is especially true for international prospects.

#3: I don't guess whether a player is actually going to declare or not; I simply work with the assumption that every player is eligible.

#4: This is a big board, not a mock draft. I might have some players way lower than you have and I want to emphasize that I do not at all project where they are drafted. Nor do I necessarily want to give my two cents on where they should be drafted. Instead, I simply project players with regards to what kind of players they can be, how likely it is that they get there and what a realistic outcome would look like in my eyes. If I was picking in this draft, especially with a high draft pick, I might very well go with talent over a player that I project to be more impactful on average if I could play out the scenario 100+ times because the upside then makes the difference and perhaps worth the gamble.

Tier 1
Luka Doncic

Tier 2
Jaren Jackson

Tier 3 (in order)
Trae Young
Mikal Bridges
Michael Porter Jr.

Tier 4 (in order)
Mo Bamba
Marvin Bagley
DeAndre Ayton

Tier 5 (in order)
Collin Sexton
Miles Bridges
Troy Brown
Wendell Carter

Tier 6 (in rough order)
Kevin Knox
Lonnie Walker
Bruce Brown
Anfernee Simons

Tier 7 (in rough order)
Daniel Gafford
Jontay Porter
Robert Williams
Landry Shamet
Dzanan Musa
Isaac Bonga

Tier 8 (in rough order)
Gary Trent
Jacob Evans
Omer Yurtseven
Grayson Allen
Rui Hachimura
Mitchell Robinson
Killian Tillie
Chimezie Metu
Tyus Battle

Tier 9 (in no order)

Spoiler:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
DeAnthony Melton
Trevon Bluiett
Allonzo Trier
Trevon Duval
Brandon Randolph
Brandon McCoy
Anfernee McLemore
Jaylen Hands
Aaron Holiday
Sagaba Konate
Moritz Wagner
Devonte Graham
LaGerald Vick
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk
Deng Adel
Keita Bates-Diop
Justin Jackson
Josh Okogie
Hamidou Diallo
Nick Richards
Kyle Guy
Shake Milton
Jevon Carter
Jessie Govan

[The-Power]

Trae Young has moved up to the second tier with Jaren Jackson which makes him ranked 2nd or 3rd on my big board. Nothing else has dramatically changed at the top but Bamba, Sexton, both Bridges and B. Brown are slowly trending downwards for me while Ayton, Knox and Shamet are slowly trending upwards.

Bamba – I'm really starting to fear that opponents might be able to play him off the court by going small. His hands are an issue and the same is true for his strength, which makes him horrible in post-up situations (entry passes are stolen frequently, he can't move his defender, he can't get into deep position and stay there) and whenever he has to bring the ball down (he gets stripped a lot, be it on rebounds or when he tries to make one dribble on traffic). His shot looks worse than I expected, even though I never expected a lot to begin with, and his playmaking ability is virtually non-existent. His defensive potential remains incredible, of course, but if teams can go small and he's unable to punish them then it's an issue for his upside because he'll either get pulled off the court or his effectiveness will drop considerably on defense which could even make him a net negative in those situations due to his offensive limitation. I hope to see visible progress of him in this regard because I really do love Bamba and what he brings to the table.

Sexton – Not much has changed but this is exactly the reason for a minor downward trend. I remain unsure about his role at the next level and his defense remains underwhelming in many situations. He'll be a valuable combo guard in the NBA but his upside appears to be limited in some ways, more so than that for other top prospects while his floor is not as established as that of some other players.

Miles Bridges – Continues with a rather underwhelming season. The lack of visible improvement is a little concerning when it comes to drafting him this high while his decision making remains questionable at times. Still an obvious lottery pick, though.

Mikal Bridges – I love him but his poor handles mean that other prospects who show more can surprass him because until he shows improvement in his handles – and I'd like to see some minor tweaks in his shooting motion – his ceiling is simply limited and his floor might not make up for it anymore. Still hard to see me ranking him outside the top 10 no matter what happens.

Brown – He simply fails to really put it together this year and is inconsistent. Add this to the question of how he fits on teams where he only plays a minor role and I remain more skeptical than his fans.

Ayton – As I wrote in another post, I got to a point where I see him for what he is and not what he should be. Hate his help defense – it's a shame that it's basically non-existent – and his slow rotations but he's able to play good one-on-one defense against most match-ups, even on switches, and he's obviously long and strong so that he helps with the rebounding. On offense, he was able to showcase a little more of his passing skills and it makes me more confident that he can be a good or even great secondary offensive player next to a perimeter star who can also put pressure on some teams and line-ups in particular – and that'd be really valuable.

Knox – Just feeling a little more confident when it comes to his abilities on the court as well as his floor and ceiling. Still a jack of all trades with clear limitations and some risk remains with him but he's trending a little upwards for me (getting some separation from B. Brown, possibly surpassing Carter and closing in on Miles Bridges, T. Brown and Sexton).

Shamet – He just continues with his good Junior campaign. Every game he shows the consistency to become either a reliable option off the bench with shot-creating duties or a starting combo-guard who plays alongside a primary ball handler makes him more interesting for me. He solidifies his ranking in the 15-20 range, imo.

Adjusted Top 13:

Luka Doncic

Trae Young
Jaren Jackson

DeAndre Ayton
Michael Porter Jr.
Mikal Bridges
Marvin Bagley
Mohamed Bamba

Collin Sexton
Troy Brown
Miles Bridges
Wendell Carter
Kevin Knox

[VCfor3]

.

Any chance you have your updated big board or a mock draft handy? I know that there will likely be quite a few changes coming as March Madness kicks off soon but it's still interesting to see where your head is at currently with some of the prospects.

[The-Power]

.

Any chance you have your updated big board or a mock draft handy? I know that there will likely be quite a few changes coming as March Madness kicks off soon but it's still interesting to see where your head is at currently with some of the prospects.

Unfortunately, no. I have moved some pieces around and approach the rankings a little differently but as of late I didn't really have much time to watch basketball as much as I'd hoped due to a taxing research project I'm involved in.

I'm confident that I'll be able to see a lot more of March Madness and hopefully I can watch a lot of tape after the season while focusing on certain prospects. But I don't expect to have a Top 30 Big Board ready until short before the draft.

[The-Power]

So, I haven't had the chance to scout as much as I hoped due to my involvement in other projects. Ergo, I do not feel very strongly about my rankings besides some of the guys I have watched all year. Still, I wanted to get something in after having been able to at least catch up a bit with some guys – always fun to see you were high or low on a couple years later.

I have shaken things up quite a bit after trying to be influenced as little as possible by public opinion as possible. Odds are that I'll be off with quite a few guys here but what's the point of forcing someone into your rankings if you're not really convinced of him just because he's widely recognized as a top-tier guy?

Without further ado, I'll list my top 30 (will update this before the draft in case I get to do some more scouting). Please let me know which players to look at more closely among those that I left out.

1. Luka Doncic
2. Jaren Jackson

3. Mikal Bridges (floor pick)
4. Michael Porter (upside pick)
5. DeAndre Ayton
6. Trae Young (upside pick)

7. Lonnie Walker (upside pick)
8. Marvin Bagley
9. Josh Okogie
10. Kevin Huerter (floor pick plus gamble on elite shooting)
11. Mohamed Bamba (upside pick)
12. Wendell Carter

13. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (floor pick)
14. Khyri Thomas
15. Jontay Porter
16. Dzanan Musa (not sure at all where to put him, but he feels like a top 20 guy)

17. Troy Brown (upside pick (shooting must come along))
18. Miles Bridges
19. Kevin Knox
20. Donte DiVincenco

21. Anfernee Simons
22. Grayson Allen (floor pick)
23. Landry Shamet

24. Ajdin Penava (no idea where to put him, he is a gamble on upside for sure)
25. Zhaire Smith
26. Jerome Robinson
27. Collin Sexton

28. Moritz Wagner
29. Mitchell Robinson (upside pick)
30. Robert Williams

Other players considered include Keita Bates-Diop, Aaron Holiday, DeAnthony Melton, Shake Milton, and Omari Spellman. Could see all of them and some more making it into my 20's – not sure about anything past 24 really, could all rise a bit or drop out completely.

[The-Power]

Below you find what will most likely be my final big board. This time of the year is very important to scout certain players in greater detail, yet unfortunately I couldn't do nearly as much as I would have wanted due to other projects I'm currently involved in.

Yet I don't want to miss out on the opportunity to post a final big board with elaborations on each player in order to come back in two years to tell everyone: look, I was mostly wrong! Seriously though, it's always fun to look back and check what you thought turned out to be true and what didn't.

I decided to ultimately only do tiers without ranking players within the respective tiers. I tried to assign numbers to them but it felt somewhat random for some of them compared to the others, which usually signals the existence of a tier in which all those players are. And since it's impossible to clearly peg them anyway due to the variety of possible circumstances and factors, this way seems more plausible to me.

Without further ado, I'll leave you (and future me) this long piece of text (actually, I will do everyone the favor and put it into spoiler tags).

TIER 1 (1–2)


Luka Doncic

Spoiler:

Firmly remains on the top of my board as the best prospect since at least Anthony Davis, in my opinion. He has incredible talents in a big body, and an understanding of the game unlike anyone I have ever seen at this age. He will have no issues finding his role in the NBA, and has as good a chance as any prospect to have legitimate star impact on winning teams going forward. He will have to become more consistent as a shooter and must work hard on his body to be in the best shape possible to maximize his impact, but I do believe in his desire to win and improve in those areas relentlessly. His ability to understand the game, manipulate and punish defenses, are things you simply cannot learn if you do not have it yet. Defensively, I believe he will be fine. Good rebounder, strong, good size – not having high-end athletic ability should not affect his potential to become a serviceable defender if he tries to make an impact on that end and improve on his fundamentals.

Jaren Jackson Jr.

Spoiler:

My number two draft prospect, and the only other prospect besides Doncic that I am willing to put into my first tier. Simply put, Jackson has the ability to not only be a good-to-great defensive player but also someone who should provide value on offense no matter where he goes. I seriously doubt that he will be a primary or secondary scorer in the NBA but this does not mean that he cannot be an elite prospect overall. His combination of rim protection, perimeter defense, and effort level on defense are second to none in this draft. Offensively, his ability to spread the floor makes him a low-risk pick in this regard, and he has shown flashes of taking on smaller guys in the post with some success and the rudimentary ability to attack the rim on close-outs. Despite not being an elite run-and-jump athlete, his great length and – in the future – strength along with fluid movements will make him one of the better functional athletes in the NBA. Add to this his mature character and youth and I cannot see him being anything less than a long-time pro in the NBA with great upside to boot.

In terms of upside, I'd rank them: Doncic, Jackson
In terms of floor, I'd rank them: Doncic, Jackson

TIER 2 (3–5)


DeAndre Ayton

Spoiler:

Ayton leads the next tier consisting of three players I struggle to really separate. I have been critical of Ayton in the past, not least because of my opinion that Ayton does not possess the skills necessary to anchor a good offense – skills which are extremely rare for a big man to possess as it is – and that his defense has enough apparent holes (most notably a lack of awareness that leads to slow reactions as a help defender) that I do not see him as a franchise player. However, I do value him as a good big man who will bring important things to his team: efficient above the rim scoring, able to attack mismatches in the post, rebounding on both ends, and the ability to not be played off the floor in small-ball line-ups with his good lateral movement. This will make him a valuable player in the NBA for a long time, at least as long as he is willing to do as the coaches instruct him. He is bound to produce in the NBA, and even though I doubt his boxscore production will accurately reflect his impact on the game, I do believe he will be a positive impact player for years to come. He is, after all, a physical specimen with sufficient ball skills to carve out a role as a valuable starter. Yet the hype as 'the next all-time great' is something I personally do not quite understand.

Trae Young

Spoiler:

I have long pondered on his placement on my board. Most people will fear how his offense translates but this is not my biggest worry. He is exceptionally skilled on offense. Almost unprecedented combination of ball handling, shooting and playmaking in a freshman, and I find it hard to believe that he will not be a really good offensive player with a more normal usage. He will always produce some turnovers from overly risky passes, and take some bad shots to check his temperature, but there is just too much to like in terms of his skills to not peg him as a potentially great offensive player, including his quickness with the ball. Although I will say that he must embrace a Curry-like role in which constant off-ball movement is emphasized – or else his offensive impact is likely to be limited, especially in terms of how it scales up with other offensive talent around him. His issue is defense. Little effort in college which will change in the NBA, I presume. But he has to really dig in and play tough and constantly aware defense, or else he will be such a negative on that end that his offensive impact can hardly make up for it. I am not sure he has that mentality in him – especially as his offensive role increases – but we have seen players of his size not being liabilities, and that must be the goal for Young. Whether or not he will be playable against teams like Houston who relentlessly force and then attack mismatches – something I suspect we will see more and more in the NBA going forward – will in no small part determine what kind of peak impact Trae can possibly have. He is a classic high-risk high-reward pick, no question.

Mikal Bridges

Spoiler:

I am still firmly in Team Mikal, and I love him more as a prospect than perhaps anybody on this board. I see him play, listen to him talk, look at his development and accomplishments, and I simply do not see any way that he fails to make an impact on winning teams as a starting player. His combination of off-ball movement, athleticism, shooting, length, instincts and effort makes him the best prototypical 3&D wing prospect I have ever seen. Usually, with my emphasis on impact on winning teams in non-high-usage roles, I love those players more than most, but not enough to consider drafting them in the Top 5. Mikal is different, however, because he is as close to the perfect combination for this role as anybody. He is not just a stopper but an incredibly smart and active team defender, he is not just a shooter but moves so well off the ball; he has great size to defend all players on the perimeter, and he is athletic while smart enough to realize that he must get into the spots in which he can make the most out of it – running in transition, cutting hard towards the rim, attacking overzealous close-outs. And he is a leader. I had him as high as #3 on my board and I would not blink an eye if someone had him above Ayton or Young. What he lacks compared to those two guys is some of their upside. Mikal has all the tools in the world to become a great and highly impactful player. But unless he develops his handle to an almost unprecedented extent, he will always be limited in what he can do offensively, and rely more heavily than others on what defenses give him. Add to this that – while he should be a good shooter – there are some doubts if he can indeed become an elite 'I don't care about a hands in my face' and 'who needs set feet to get a good shot off' type of shooter, I do not want to put him a tier above the others. Note that I am fully aware that odds are that someone drafted behind him will turn out to be better because he reaches his potential that is higher than Mikal's. But it is impossible to know for sure who this is going to be, and then there is no sense in shooting for the stars when an almost assuredly valuable player with still good upside – by becoming the best player in a limited yet still important role – is right in front of you. And to me, seeing him end up as the fifth best player in this draft would not be a surprise at all as the number of true franchise players is extremely limited in every draft.

In terms of upside, I'd rank them: Young, Ayton, Bridges
In terms of floor, I'd rank them: Bridges, Ayton, Young

TIER 3 (6–7)


Marvin Bagley

Spoiler:

Like with Ayton, I have been critical of Bagley in the past. However, I do like him as a player and prospect, and pointing out weaknesses came as reaction to – in my eyes – overly positive assessments of his game and star potential. Bagley is going to be a long-time NBA player who will carve out a role that teams will find valuable. His athleticism is off the charts, and with his energy level there is just no way that he will not succeed at least in the role of an energy big. He runs the floor like a gazelle, crashes the offensive glass, can finish above the rim with ease. But he can clearly be more. He is more skilled than most energy bigs already and he has obviously room for improvement. He could become a decent ball handler and shooter for his position, an adequate passer and a mismatch in the post. This would make him a valuable offensive player – but not a great one. As with Ayton, I will argue again that offensive superstars usually possess some elite skills that Bagley does not and most likely will never possess, and that he is not one of the exceptions among bigs who can anchor a good offense. Rather, I foresee his contributions to valuable yet clearly more modest than some expect or the numbers would suggest. This is not only an opinion I hold on prospects but consistent with my evaluation of the impact of the bigs who are already in the NBA, by the way. His shortcomings in terms of skills (including only using his left to finish) are likely to be exploited in a primary role on offense. Can his defense be good enough to still make him a veritable tier-one prospect? In my eyes, no. He has some abilities on that end, to be sure. He has not only the athleticism but also the desire to defend, and he can obviously rebound the ball. But he not only lacks length to play closer to the rim effectively, but also the awareness and – in some instance – the fundamentals to become more than a passable defensive player in a realistic scenario. I would not be surprised if he looked better than at Duke at times, but with the different level of the NBA game I still find it hard to imagine him as some sort of good-to-great defender – and that's enough rank him behind a number of other prospects. But, to be sure, being ranked at #6 still clearly shows that I like him as a prospect despite being a bit lower on him than the average fan, scout and, it seems, executive.

Michael Porter

Spoiler:

Some medical concerns have made me drop Porter a bit recently. If health was guaranteed, he would rank a bit higher and somewhere in that second tier. Yet he is not good enough – or at least not proven enough – to still rank this highly with the existing health concerns. When I watch Porter, I see someone with the potential to excel offensively in the NBA albeit not at the highest levels as his handles and playmaking is not advanced enough. He can be an excellent scorer who just finds different ways to score, whatever works on a given night. This has clear value in the NBA, especially if you can still within the flow of the game and only take over – in the classic sense – when defenses tighten up. In HS he showed zero effort on defense which made me question his motor, and which could be an issue if he reaches stardom. But if he does reach this level, I suppose his motor issues on defense become less of an issue in the grand scheme of things. In games when he had to prove himself, he did play with decent effort on defense. Most notably, he was able to rebound well and challenge shots at the rim more and more effectively than you would expect from a Forward. Perimeter defense was never his strength, though, and we will see if he can fix this in the NBA or if he must indeed be a full-time 4 to really make an impact. Question marks clearly exist with him. Yet at the same time, his potential is still obvious and I do believe that being considered the best of your class not only by scout rankings but also among many peers – as was the case with Porter during HS – does say something about his potential; even though it is more of a side note than real argument.

In terms of upside, I'd rank them: Porter, Bagley
In terms of floor, I'd rank them: Bagley, Porter

TIER 4 (8–12)


Lonnie Walker

Spoiler:

Walker was so tough to rank for me because it can really go either way with him. On the one side, you have his talents. Being an incredible athlete with a quick first step, Walker can blow past anyone if given the opportunity. His skills must still be improved a lot but he does have the foundation for improvement in the areas of ball handling, shooting, and playmaking. Will he improve enough, though? There are some concerns. His motor has been up and down in college, and motor issues can be a sign of the overall desire to become great. As of now, he is not good enough as a shooter to provide value for his team, he is not a good enough ball handler to create for himself consistently, he is not a good enough playmaker to run your offense and create for others reliably, and he does not play with sufficient intensity on defense to make an impact on that end for his team. So where do we go from here? If he works tirelessly on his game and he ramps up his intensity level, he has a ceiling that few prospects in this draft can match. But there is a real and disproportionally high chance that he will not got there and this could lead to him searching for his role in the NBA forever, without ever leaving a clear imprint his teams behind. Picking him in the Top 10 is betting on his ceiling, but going with less risky picks is absolutely justifiable in my eyes.

Mohamed Bamba

Spoiler:

My highest ranked player going into the season probably saw the most substantial drop of all. I have written a lot of posts on Bamba and my view on him, perhaps justifying in front of myself as to why I feel the need to drop him this far (and I ranked him even lower before). Basically, I cannot convince myself that Bamba is a low-risk pick. I do believe there is a real chance that he can be played off the floor when teams size down. His rim protection is his main selling point and on a spread-out NBA court this ability of his could take a serious hit. It does not help that his college rim protection was different from what he could do in the NBA, and even against line-ups with a more traditional C there is the chance that his rim protection is not as effective as hoped because it relies more on already being at the rim than getting there to help. And can he cover the perimeter on switches? He moves gracefully, but perhaps not quickly and flexible enough to not be picked on by good isolation players. Offensively, he is a work in progress. He has the mechanics to become a decent shooter but it is more likely that this will only be a useful instead of defining feature of his offensive game, i.e. something he does on low volume to space the floor a bit, but nothing that will change the dynamics on games. He is a poor passer as of now, who lacks a variety of moves in the post and awareness of what is going on and where is teammates and opponents are on the floor – this lack of feel severely limits the role he can possibly handle in the NBA. I hope he can find a way to be effective in a limited role á la Tyson Chandler but even that is not a given considering that Bamba is not an explosive athlete, and does not play at full intensity all the time. If the game slows down for him a bit, and if he can find a consistent motor and develop his skills, I do believe he can be a useful offensive player. But this is still a long way ahead; and to expect him to be even more than that is not reasonable in my eyes. That said, if he can find a way to be an effective defensive anchor in today's NBA – which is possible – then his upside (e.g. Gobert) is real. This is way he warrants consideration in the 7-12 range for some teams not least because all players in this range have clear deficiencies – either a presumably limited ceiling or high risk to not reach levels close to their ceiling.

Josh Okogie

Spoiler:

Having Okogie this high might surprise most of you, and frankly it surprises me as well a bit. I was, however, thinking about where to rank him and could not find a reason that convinces to put him a tier or two lower than the other guys here. I am obviously high on Okogie's potential. He is a very athletic player who, akin to Walker, has a solid skill foundation to build upon. As of now, he has to improve a lot to become a lead guard or secondary offensive option and it is more likely that he never gets there than it is that he does. What does he have to fall back on? This is where I like him. Despite not being a great shooter, I do like what he can bring off the ball and on defense. He has the ability to impact the game in different ways and even if those ways will not be incredibly impactful if he does not reach his potential, it is something that should make him a useful player in a limited role regardless. Not what you hope for but players in this tier are all in the same boat in that none of them combines a high floor with a high ceiling. I do believe Okogie will benefit from the increased space in the NBA and a reduced usage. He has the physical tools to be great and a solid foundation – but he will have to improve in all areas (including shot selection and finishing) while maintaining his competitive edge to become more than a bench player at the next level. But he does have the chance to explode not least because he is still super young for his class (younger than some of the freshmen) and this is what makes him intriguing.

Kevin Huerter

Spoiler:

Huerter might be the best off-ball scorer in this draft and I place huge emphasis on that. Most players will see their touches and field goal attempts reduced, so being able to excel in a limited role and make an impact without handling the ball is extremely important for me – even if some other guys behind him have higher theoretical ceilings. Huerter has great range and can get his shot off on the move, but he is not an absolutely elite shooter in the Klay Thompson mold – or else I would rank him even higher. His FT% is not that great, and his release is a bit low which means he needs some space to get it cleanly off, without having to rush it or change his mechanics. He is deceptively athletic giving him an edge in terms of off-ball play, and he does make the right play most of the time. That said, he is not overly creative as a playmaker and his ball handling is not good enough to be put in a creating role at the NBA level. This puts a ceiling on his impact on offense – he should be a player every time could use but not a player that you look to build around. His ability to be plugged in and play at the 2 in almost every line-up, however, does mean that his offensive contribution should be portable and scale well. Defensively, he should be fine with his good size and athleticism, as well as understanding of the game, although it's tough to ever envision him as a truly good defensive player.

Donte DiVincenco

Spoiler:

DiVincenco made the biggest leap for me as I was re-watching a bit of tape focusing on him. The main reason was his versatility on offense that I underrated a bit. He has been a bit streaky when it comes to shooting but his ability to hit difficult 3's – a couple feet behind the line, quickly over the defender, off the dribble – bodes well for future improvement. Add to this ability to get to the rim and using either hand to finish, or to find open guys (although I wish he did it a bit more consistently), makes him an intriguing prospect. He would not rank this highly without his winning mentality, though. This year, he has been a key to the success of Villanova by embracing his role. He is limited by a lack of length on defense, but he should fit seamlessly in the NBA with his will to play defense. I really like his potential as the first guard off the bench who can play with or in place of the starting PG, and the fact that he has shown to really good in this role already makes his transition to the NBA much easier to anticipate. This might not be a sexy pick then, but on winning teams those players are incredibly important. Iguodala on the Warriors, Gordon on the Rockets, Ginobili on the Spurs – all of them are starting caliber players who were incredibly important pieces on their teams not least because of what they could provide off the bench. While I am not suggesting that Donte will reach this level of play – that remains to be seen and he would have to develop really well – I believe he can be a great player of the bench (ask the Raptors about VanVleet), a starter in all but name, for the team that drafts and trusts him. And perhaps he can even find a starting role somewhere.

In terms of upside, I'd rank them: Walker, Okogie, Bamba, DiVincenco, Huerter
In terms of floor, I'd rank them: Huerter, DiVincenco, Okogie, Bamba, Walker

TIER 5 (13–17)


Wendell Carter

Spoiler:

Carter has been ranked a little more highly on my board before, and I still see the argument for him. I do like the jack-of-all-trades he gives me. He is a good passer for a big man, he can post up smaller players, he can hit an open shot, he can rebound well, he can protect the rim some, he has good length. This is a great package to start with and should make him a long-year professional in the NBA. What I have soured on a bit more is his (in)ability to defend in space which limits his potential on defense and this along with his best role as a high post hub makes him a pure at the next level in my eyes. Maybe he will play some 4 but I do not see him succeeding there. As a 5, some of his strengths must be put into perspective: he no longer continues to be a dominant rebounder, and his relative length and rim protection – as the primary rim protector – take clear hits, too. I simply do not see big upside with him. He should be able to play passable on both ends but with clear limitations. One could argue that this is still valuable, and I would agree. After all, he still warrants consideration for a mid-first or even late lottery pick. Moreover, I would not be surprised if he ends up outplaying his draft position if others fail to live up to the hopes I have in them. But I do not see the appeal as an upside pick, and some players i also like more as floor picks due to their role/style (and most of them have higher upside, too).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Spoiler:

I remember being the first or second poster to make a thread on him when he started becoming Kentucky's best player. Back then, I really liked what I see and said he could be a mid-first or late lottery pick iirc. I still stand by that. Yet, as the season went on and his stock rose, I did not see anything to make me rank him much – or any – higher than when he broke out. The consistency he displayed was duly noted and worked in his favor, but it did not erase some doubts about his skills. I love him for his tenacious defense and long arms. It makes him a player who should do really well defending Guards at the next level. It remains to be seen how much stronger he can get, though, and I do not see him as a guaranteed lockdown defender against various types of Guards either. On offense, I love his ability to play within himself. He makes the correct passes and he tries to play to his strengths, and teams should love having him next to another PG. This is an important caveat, though. I do not see him as a PG in the NBA. He cannot penetrate consistently, he is not an off-the-dribble threat, he does not see the floor at the highest level, and he is not elite around the rim. So what remains is the role of a combo Guard who plays off the ball a lot – and for that role, he lacks in several departments. Most notably in terms of off-screen shooting, or shooting in general despite some potential, and high-end athleticism. He reminds me a bit of Ntilikina but a little less toolsy on both ends and a little less upside (Ntilikina has more potential simply due to the possibility of him playing less timid soon – knowing what the NBA is like, getting more used to playing on the ball, and transforming his body). Really solid mid-first pick if he can show some more as a shooter but he does not look special to me.

Troy Brown

Spoiler:

Troy Brown was my first draft crush this year, if you want to call it that. I loved his tools, and he appeared to be the perfect wing player in a secondary offensive role with good defense. However, he struggled a bit in college because of two things that are very critical. First and foremost, this concerns his shooting ability. His form looks better than the percentages would suggest, but how much stock do we put on form when the struggles shooting the ball were really obvious? You could see his confidence going down by the day, and in the NBA it is not easy to suddenly regain confidence in something you were never good at to being with. If he is unable to convert at least semi-open shots somewhat reliably, his value takes a big hit and he will probably not reach starting levels. The second part is his athleticism. He is an okay-ish athlete and has good size to be a wing, but will that be enough? A big part of his appeal are his defensive potential and his ability to create in a secondary role, and both of it is impacted by a lack of quickness. I believe he will become at least good enough in terms of shooting the ball that he will not be liability, and he certainly has the age factor going for him. I also love his mentality and would love to have him on the Warriors to fill in for Iguodala at some point. But if I had to be realistic and not let myself get blinded by the many things I love about him – e.g. mentality, passing, pushing the ball – I do expect him to be a high-end bench player or a low-level starting player. This is something valuable, and he has some more upside to him, but somewhere in the middle of the first round seems to be fitting for such a player.

Miles Bridges

Spoiler:

Miles is a player many of you rank higher than I do. I have watched MSU more than any other team last year, and I do understand the appeal. Yet I must admit to being a bit more reserved when it comes to him. For starters, I do believe he benefitted greatly on defense from playing on that MSU team and under Coach Izzo. He was a great college defender on the wings because his strengths – rebounding, post defense, weak side help defense for a wing and general effort level – were emphasized while his weaknesses – staying with quicker players, lack of size/length against bigger Forwards – could be somewhat hidden. In the NBA, where he has to defend well in space, I expect to see him struggle a bit and his close-outs/challenges should be considerably less effective. To me, he will have to play the 4 quite a bit in order to maximize his potential on offense and to not struggle as much on defense – but then his defense could still be an issue, or at least not a clear positive any longer, due to his lack of size and the then relatively pedestrian weak side help and defensive rebounding. Offensively, he can do a lot of things quite well but does not project to be great at anything in particular. His handles would be solid for a 4 but not good enough to create offense for himself or others consistently, i.e. he would create off others breaking down defenses. That is good but nothing special. His shot is decent but inconsistent and not good enough to be a real threat. He can make plays but is not a consistent playmaker. He is a great leaper and can run in transition, but he does not have the best functional athleticism. Overall, I do believe Bridges brings enough to the table to carve out a role in the NBA even though I am not quite sure yet how exactly it will look like. But more than that would require a lot of improvement of which to me he has not shown enough in his Sophomore year. If he does find a way to play the 4 effectively, however, his upside is probably a bit higher than that of most guys in this tier.

Khyri Thomas

Spoiler:

Unlike for many other guys, Thomas' role should be quite clearly defined. He projects to be a good defender – although probably limited to Guards – and a capable off-ball shooter when shooting with his feet set. But I definitely do not see a PG in him – and not even a combo Guard, really. His shooting has been reliable during college and I do appreciate his constant improvement in terms of scoring – increasing his scoring average and 2P% while maintaining high levels of efficiency from behind the arc. But I find it hard to imagine that as a shooter he becomes more than someone who can space the floor in the corners and hit relatively open 3's. His form does not look like it would allow him to become someone who can hit 3's reliably off-screen or on pull-ups in the PnR, where his relative lack of burst and ball-handling, compared to lead guards, also comes into play. His age also does not work in his favor. I see him as the prototypical 3&D Guard and as I mentioned above, I really appreciate those players more than many. This is why I would still use a mid-first pick on him – but I would not expect him to become more than such a role player.

In terms of upside, I'd rank them: Brown, Bridges, Shai, Carter, Thomas
In terms of floor, I'd rank them: Carter, Thomas, Bridges, Shai, Brown

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Other players I would consider next include:

Grayson Allen, Kevin Knox, DeAnthony Melton, Dzanan Musa, Landry Shamet and Moritz Wagner

Spoiler:

Allen is intriguing as an off-screen shooter who can also make the right plays but could struggle a bit to defend and lacks offensive upside outside of his limited role. I see him as a valuable piece off the bench going forward.

Kevin Knox is a bit of an enigma. He gives you the vibe of having the potential to become a decent starter, but when you actually see him play there are just so many small holes and inconsistencies in his game that you lose some faith. Realistically, he will find a role in the NBA but not warrant a lottery pick even in hindsight.

Melton impressed me last year, when I became one of his most vocal fans. The issue with him is that we needed to see some development, and obviously we were deprived of that last year. If his shot has improved then he could be a sleeper pick for some team, but if it did not then I see him as nothing more than a low-minute back up PG.

Musa has the tools to outplay his position, but leaves some things to be desired. I have not seen as much as I should have to make an educated assessment of him as a player, so this could be a bit off – but from what I have seen, I do believe in his ability to find a role as a scorer with some issues in other areas who consequently deserves consideration somewhere in the mid- to late-first round.

Shamet has shown to be a good shooter with decent size for his position. But he struggles to penetrate in half-court settings consistently, is not a great transition player and could struggle with NBA physicality. I see him as the type of combo Guard many teams can potentially use (probably off the bench), but he will have to work to find minutes in the NBA.

Wagner is one of the better offensive bigs in this draft and could carve out a niche in the NBA as an option in the post and as a floor spacer especially with second units who could use some scoring. If he can handle more than back-up minutes depends on his ability to defend at an adequate level – he seems willing but limited.

edit: Plus Holiday, who I missed.
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From the limited footage I have seen, I would also include Elie Okobo, Adjin Penava, Anfernee Simons and possibly Gary Clark to that group. But I do not feel comfortable at all when it comes to rating these guys, and especially ranking them among the other players I have seen much more of. All of them could easily be ranked much higher or much lower if I had seen more of them, but all of them do have shown me enough intriguing stuff to at least mention them here.

At this point, Sexton and Smith also deserve a shout-out. I am obviously a lot lower on both of them than the most but given that all the players I just mentioned above appear to be back-up players or low-level starters, and that the upside of most of them is fairly limited, both of them become are good options for teams who are willing to bet on higher ceilings instead of rounding out their rosters. Both should be worth a first round pick.