Paulbball's 2018 Bigboard

[CptCrunch]

Small tier only board for now. Mock after the season.

Tier 1

1. Luka Doncic

Tier 2

2. Jaren Jackson Jr
3. Marvin Bagley III

Tier 3

4. DeAndre Ayton
5. Mohamed Bamba

Tier 4

6. Mikal Bridges
7. Miles Bridges
8. Wendell Carter Jr
9. Trae Young
10. Michael Porter Jr

Tier 5

Troy Brown
Robert Williams
Kevin Knox
Trevon Duval
Dzanan Musa
Shai-Gilgeous Alexander
Collin Sexton
Hamidou Diallo
Lonnie Walker
Zhaire Smith
Anfernee Simons

New grading rubric generously stolen from @eminence

Outcome descriptors:
10 - MVP+
9 - All-NBA
8 - All-Star
7 - Great Starter
6 - Good Starter
5 - Okay Starter/Great Bench
4 - Low Starter/Good Bench
3 - Decent Bench
2 - Ehh Bench
1 - Questionable NBA Player

[CptCrunch]

Watched some more films. Dropping Bamba hard edition. Good jump for Zhaire Smith and Trae.

Tier 1

1. Luka Doncic

Tier 2

2. Jaren Jackson Jr
3. Marvin Bagley III

Tier 3

4. DeAndre Ayton

Tier 4

5. Trae Young
6. Wendell Carter Jr
7. Mikal Bridges
8. Zhaire Smith
9. Michael Porter Jr
10. Mohamed Bamba

Tier 5

Miles Bridges
Jontay Porter
Troy Brown
Shai-Gilgeous Alexander
DeAnthony Melton
Robert Williams
Kevin Knox

Tier 6
Trevon Duval
Dzanan Musa
Collin Sexton
Hamidou Diallo
Lonnie Walker
Anfernee Simons
Jarrett Culver

[yoyoboy]

What role do you see Bagley playing in the NBA? The reason I personally have him so low on my board is because while I recognize a lot of his gifts, like his crazy motor, his quick leaping ability, his first step, and his mobility, I don't see a lot of what he brings to the table leading to that great of results in the NBA. It's hard to see him being a dominant scorer at the NBA level. His outside shot is still a long way away. Yes, he's shooting 37% from three, but he's only making 0.7 per game and the ones he takes are when teams leave him wide open. The NBA three is further back and his 62% at the line leads one to believe he's very far away from being any kind of floor spacer. His touch around the basket is nothing special, especially considering he much prefers to go to his left and you see him constantly trying to do that but it's not as easily exposed in college. I can't see him being some great post player with his lack of size, refined moves, or ambidextrous touch.

While his mobility and speed are great, his handles for a bit are nothing impressive. There's no way he's going to be taking guys off the dribble at the NBA level so I'm not really sure how much those attributes really add to his offensive repertoire other than in transition. He's obviously a great offensive rebounder with that insane second jump but it's going to be more difficult at the next stage. He has a very poor standing reach and he's going to be facing guys a lot stronger and longer than he is. Not to say he won't still be an animal on the glass, but he's not going to be able to be able to score 20 ppg with that as his primary ability.

His passing game and overall feel for the game aren't great. Offensively this hurts his upside considering he's not going to be a dominating back-to-the-basket monster like Ayton and he's not a reliable threat from long range. And I don't think he has the frame or the reach to be the crazy threats in the PnR that Davis or say a prime Dwight were.

Defensively, he just hasn't looked good at all. His timing is poor and rotations aren't fast enough so he doesn't provide much rim protection. I mean 1.0 bpg is unbelievably bad for a college big, no matter what the defensive scheme is. Even Love was getting 1.4 bpg, while playing less minutes than Bagley. Okafor was also getting around 1.4 bpg. You would hope that with his ability to cover ground he can be an effective PnR defender and in switching situations, but so far JJJ and even Bamba have been far more impressive in those regards.

So when I take all that into account it's incredibly difficult for me to envision a scenario where Bagley turns into a star based off of his abilities and considering what types of big men have the most impact in the NBA. I think he has a decent floor as a player but his ceiling isn't very high at all. I have him around 10th on my big board personally.

[nolang1]

I don't really 'get' Zhaire Smith at this point. If he'd had 3 threes rim out this year, I don't think too many people would be looking at him as this stud 3-D guy with his form and 32% shooting on limited attempts. The most charitable I can be about his shooting and halfcourt offense is to give it an incomplete.

I think the defense is a bit overrated because Texas Tech played OU during peak Trae Young hype; if you zoom out and look at the season as a whole, it doesn't necessarily take a superhuman defensive effort to make Young to have a bad game where he shoots 30% from the field and turns the ball over a lot. Smith is obviously a great defender for a freshman SG, but short of being Tony Allen it's hard to make too much of a positive impact from that spot in the NBA.

I suppose somebody has to take a shooting guard at some point and he could very well be the first one chosen, but if I'm going to be optimistic about how much a player's shooting can improve I'd rather take any of the perimeter guys you have listed in tier 5 because they'd be starting so much further ahead offensively.

[CptCrunch]

What role do you see Bagley playing in the NBA? The reason I personally have him so low on my board is because while I recognize a lot of his gifts, like his crazy motor, his quick leaping ability, his first step, and his mobility, I don't see a lot of what he brings to the table leading to that great of results in the NBA. It's hard to see him being a dominant scorer at the NBA level. His outside shot is still a long way away. Yes, he's shooting 37% from three, but he's only making 0.7 per game and the ones he takes are when teams leave him wide open. The NBA three is further back and his 62% at the line leads one to believe he's very far away from being any kind of floor spacer. His touch around the basket is nothing special, especially considering he much prefers to go to his left and you see him constantly trying to do that but it's not as easily exposed in college. I can't see him being some great post player with his lack of size, refined moves, or ambidextrous touch.

While his mobility and speed are great, his handles for a bit are nothing impressive. There's no way he's going to be taking guys off the dribble at the NBA level so I'm not really sure how much those attributes really add to his offensive repertoire other than in transition. He's obviously a great offensive rebounder with that insane second jump but it's going to be more difficult at the next stage. He has a very poor standing reach and he's going to be facing guys a lot stronger and longer than he is. Not to say he won't still be an animal on the glass, but he's not going to be able to be able to score 20 ppg with that as his primary ability.

His passing game and overall feel for the game aren't great. Offensively this hurts his upside considering he's not going to be a dominating back-to-the-basket monster like Ayton and he's not a reliable threat from long range. And I don't think he has the frame or the reach to be the crazy threats in the PnR that Davis or say a prime Dwight were.

Defensively, he just hasn't looked good at all. His timing is poor and rotations aren't fast enough so he doesn't provide much rim protection. I mean 1.0 bpg is unbelievably bad for a college big, no matter what the defensive scheme is. Even Love was getting 1.4 bpg, while playing less minutes than Bagley. Okafor was also getting around 1.4 bpg. You would hope that with his ability to cover ground he can be an effective PnR defender and in switching situations, but so far JJJ and even Bamba have been far more impressive in those regards.

So when I take all that into account it's incredibly difficult for me to envision a scenario where Bagley turns into a star based off of his abilities and considering what types of big men have the most impact in the NBA. I think he has a decent floor as a player but his ceiling isn't very high at all. I have him around 10th on my big board personally.

I don't look at Bagley and his current skillset and say how these skillsets can translate and improve in the NBA. The point is that he putting up elite stats (same as Ayton basically) while being much more raw. The best way to characterize his play is grungy hustle. Marvin is basically hustling his way to success with his unstoppable motor. I like Bagley because his mentality. He is a "I'm the man kind of player, not a man on the team" type of player. The greatest NBA players have all had these types of mentalities. Most of the skills you mentioned can be improved. You can't really improve motor, hustle and mentality.

It is not difficult for me to imagine success once he polishes his game in general. The floor in my onion is basically the more elite version of prime Kenneth Faried. He is kind of a unique prospect without good NBA comparisons.

I don't really 'get' Zhaire Smith at this point. If he'd had 3 threes rim out this year, I don't think too many people would be looking at him as this stud 3-D guy with his form and 32% shooting on limited attempts. The most charitable I can be about his shooting and halfcourt offense is to give it an incomplete.

I think the defense is a bit overrated because Texas Tech played OU during peak Trae Young hype; if you zoom out and look at the season as a whole, it doesn't necessarily take a superhuman defensive effort to make Young to have a bad game where he shoots 30% from the field and turns the ball over a lot. Smith is obviously a great defender for a freshman SG, but short of being Tony Allen it's hard to make too much of a positive impact from that spot in the NBA.

I suppose somebody has to take a shooting guard at some point and he could very well be the first one chosen, but if I'm going to be optimistic about how much a player's shooting can improve I'd rather take any of the perimeter guys you have listed in tier 5 because they'd be starting so much further ahead offensively.

Firstly, I think Zhaire is suffering from a case of highschoolrankingitis. His RSCI 223 rank has really helped to help him hide from the public eye for most of the season. Once again, similar to Bagley above, I don't really care much about his shooting struggles (a theme found in most guards these days). Zhaire has outlier athleticism, especially in no step verticals. He racks up offensive rebounds, chase down blocks at an alarming rate for a guard. In fact, his BPM is an absurd 11.6, higher than both Bagley and Ayton. His defensive DBPM is at an unbelievable 6.1!

He is in fact the #2 freshman guard in the nation in DBPM. The dude Herb above him is putting up 4/2 or something so we'll ignore him. The other 4 are all lotto pick PF/C this year.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2018&year_max=2018&class_is_fr=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&games_type=A&qual=pts_per_g&c1stat=dbpm&c1comp=gt&c1val=6&c2stat=mp_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=20&order_by=dbpm

[GimmeDat]

Looks like some good Zhaire Smith conversation here. Interested to hear your opinions on his position - we're talking about him as a 2, but do you guys think he has much potential to shift over to the 3 spot? He's 6'5, from what I can gather his wingspan is 6'9/6'10, and of course, he's an elite athlete.

I've been watching David Nwaba for Chicago this season and he's been playing a fair amount of 3 at a similar size. It also helps the lineups because it's less of a liability to have a non-shooter at the 3 than the 2. Might be a way to get Smith in to rotations a bit more early in his career, especially if we don't quite know where his jumper's at in its development.

[nolang1]

I don't really 'get' Zhaire Smith at this point. If he'd had 3 threes rim out this year, I don't think too many people would be looking at him as this stud 3-D guy with his form and 32% shooting on limited attempts. The most charitable I can be about his shooting and halfcourt offense is to give it an incomplete.

I think the defense is a bit overrated because Texas Tech played OU during peak Trae Young hype; if you zoom out and look at the season as a whole, it doesn't necessarily take a superhuman defensive effort to make Young to have a bad game where he shoots 30% from the field and turns the ball over a lot. Smith is obviously a great defender for a freshman SG, but short of being Tony Allen it's hard to make too much of a positive impact from that spot in the NBA.

I suppose somebody has to take a shooting guard at some point and he could very well be the first one chosen, but if I'm going to be optimistic about how much a player's shooting can improve I'd rather take any of the perimeter guys you have listed in tier 5 because they'd be starting so much further ahead offensively.

Firstly, I think Zhaire is suffering from a case of highschoolrankingitis. His RSCI 223 rank has really helped to help him hide from the public eye for most of the season. Once again, similar to Bagley above, I don't really care much about his shooting struggles (a theme found in most guards these days). Zhaire has outlier athleticism, especially in no step verticals. He racks up offensive rebounds, chase down blocks at an alarming rate for a guard. In fact, his BPM is an absurd 11.6, higher than both Bagley and Ayton. His defensive DBPM is at an unbelievable 6.1!

He is in fact the #2 freshman guard in the nation in DBPM. The dude Herb above him is putting up 4/2 or something so we'll ignore him. The other 4 are all lotto pick PF/C this year.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2018&year_max=2018&class_is_fr=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&games_type=A&qual=pts_per_g&c1stat=dbpm&c1comp=gt&c1val=6&c2stat=mp_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=20&order_by=dbpm

I'm fully aware that if Smith were a McDonald's All-American last season he'd be the consensus best SG in the class, but where he ranks at his position is different from where he ranks out of everyone. I'm just skeptical of the value of a shooting guard who doesn't create much offense on his own and may not even be able to shoot from the perimeter. The offensive rebounding and shot-blocking rates are outliers among SGs in this class, sure, but the player you describe is basically DWade but less athletic (I'm hesitant to label Smith an athletic outlier when guys like KJ McDaniels, Derrick Jones, Markel Brown, and Terrence Ross come around fairly regularly) and without the ball skills.

To have star upside, such a player would need to be a Tony Allen type of outlier as a perimeter defender or be on a drastic rate of skill improvement a la Victor Oladipo. I know enough about the DBPM formula to know that two of the things it likes most about Smith aren't tied extremely closely to his own defensive ability, and his defensive highlights tend to show more blocked shots at the rim against guards than more important/translatable things like him covering a ton of ground on the perimeter or switching onto bigger opponents. As for the rate of improvement, again I'm hesitant to declare him a shooter based on such a limited number of attempts when he's not even being guarded by one of the opponent's best two perimeter defenders.

[CptCrunch]

I don't really 'get' Zhaire Smith at this point. If he'd had 3 threes rim out this year, I don't think too many people would be looking at him as this stud 3-D guy with his form and 32% shooting on limited attempts. The most charitable I can be about his shooting and halfcourt offense is to give it an incomplete.

I think the defense is a bit overrated because Texas Tech played OU during peak Trae Young hype; if you zoom out and look at the season as a whole, it doesn't necessarily take a superhuman defensive effort to make Young to have a bad game where he shoots 30% from the field and turns the ball over a lot. Smith is obviously a great defender for a freshman SG, but short of being Tony Allen it's hard to make too much of a positive impact from that spot in the NBA.

I suppose somebody has to take a shooting guard at some point and he could very well be the first one chosen, but if I'm going to be optimistic about how much a player's shooting can improve I'd rather take any of the perimeter guys you have listed in tier 5 because they'd be starting so much further ahead offensively.

Firstly, I think Zhaire is suffering from a case of highschoolrankingitis. His RSCI 223 rank has really helped to help him hide from the public eye for most of the season. Once again, similar to Bagley above, I don't really care much about his shooting struggles (a theme found in most guards these days). Zhaire has outlier athleticism, especially in no step verticals. He racks up offensive rebounds, chase down blocks at an alarming rate for a guard. In fact, his BPM is an absurd 11.6, higher than both Bagley and Ayton. His defensive DBPM is at an unbelievable 6.1!

He is in fact the #2 freshman guard in the nation in DBPM. The dude Herb above him is putting up 4/2 or something so we'll ignore him. The other 4 are all lotto pick PF/C this year.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2018&year_max=2018&class_is_fr=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&games_type=A&qual=pts_per_g&c1stat=dbpm&c1comp=gt&c1val=6&c2stat=mp_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=20&order_by=dbpm

I'm fully aware that if Smith were a McDonald's All-American last season he'd be the consensus best SG in the class, but where he ranks at his position is different from where he ranks out of everyone. I'm just skeptical of the value of a shooting guard who doesn't create much offense on his own and may not even be able to shoot from the perimeter. The offensive rebounding and shot-blocking rates are outliers among SGs in this class, sure, but the player you describe is basically DWade but less athletic (I'm hesitant to label Smith an athletic outlier when guys like KJ McDaniels, Derrick Jones, Markel Brown, and Terrence Ross come around fairly regularly) and without the ball skills.

To have star upside, such a player would need to be a Tony Allen type of outlier as a perimeter defender or be on a drastic rate of skill improvement a la Victor Oladipo. I know enough about the DBPM formula to know that two of the things it likes most about Smith aren't tied extremely closely to his own defensive ability, and his defensive highlights tend to show more blocked shots at the rim against guards than more important/translatable things like him covering a ton of ground on the perimeter or switching onto bigger opponents. As for the rate of improvement, again I'm hesitant to declare him a shooter based on such a limited number of attempts when he's not even being guarded by one of the opponent's best two perimeter defenders.

Other atheletic outliers don't pass the advanced stat test. So we are going to have give him some time to develop other aspects of his game. Teams will be willing to take that chance in the mid to late lotto.

He is a stat prospect much like Doncic.

[nolang1]

Firstly, I think Zhaire is suffering from a case of highschoolrankingitis. His RSCI 223 rank has really helped to help him hide from the public eye for most of the season. Once again, similar to Bagley above, I don't really care much about his shooting struggles (a theme found in most guards these days). Zhaire has outlier athleticism, especially in no step verticals. He racks up offensive rebounds, chase down blocks at an alarming rate for a guard. In fact, his BPM is an absurd 11.6, higher than both Bagley and Ayton. His defensive DBPM is at an unbelievable 6.1!

He is in fact the #2 freshman guard in the nation in DBPM. The dude Herb above him is putting up 4/2 or something so we'll ignore him. The other 4 are all lotto pick PF/C this year.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2018&year_max=2018&class_is_fr=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&games_type=A&qual=pts_per_g&c1stat=dbpm&c1comp=gt&c1val=6&c2stat=mp_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=20&order_by=dbpm

I'm fully aware that if Smith were a McDonald's All-American last season he'd be the consensus best SG in the class, but where he ranks at his position is different from where he ranks out of everyone. I'm just skeptical of the value of a shooting guard who doesn't create much offense on his own and may not even be able to shoot from the perimeter. The offensive rebounding and shot-blocking rates are outliers among SGs in this class, sure, but the player you describe is basically DWade but less athletic (I'm hesitant to label Smith an athletic outlier when guys like KJ McDaniels, Derrick Jones, Markel Brown, and Terrence Ross come around fairly regularly) and without the ball skills.

To have star upside, such a player would need to be a Tony Allen type of outlier as a perimeter defender or be on a drastic rate of skill improvement a la Victor Oladipo. I know enough about the DBPM formula to know that two of the things it likes most about Smith aren't tied extremely closely to his own defensive ability, and his defensive highlights tend to show more blocked shots at the rim against guards than more important/translatable things like him covering a ton of ground on the perimeter or switching onto bigger opponents. As for the rate of improvement, again I'm hesitant to declare him a shooter based on such a limited number of attempts when he's not even being guarded by one of the opponent's best two perimeter defenders.

Other atheletic outliers don't pass the advanced stat test. So we are going to have give him some time to develop other aspects of his game. Teams will be willing to take that chance in the mid to late lotto.

He is a stat prospect much like Doncic.

Yeah but the main things making him pass the advanced stat test compared to other guards are high rebounds/low turnovers, which in his case may be due to playing in almost a smallball energy PF type of role that he won't be able to in the NBA, and his team's efficiency differential, which may simply be due to playing for a very well-coached defensive team rather than him being single-handedly responsible for a team's success on that end. KJ McDaniels was also loved by analytics for his offensive rebounding and shot-blocking as a guard prospect, and even putting aside that he never got any better as a shooter in the NBA, his actual plus/minus impact on defense was never in line with his highlight plays.

I just don't know how I'd justify giving him time to develop other aspects of his game when I could give it to someone like Bamba and wait for him to bulk up or hope that a redshirt year of aggressive rehab has Porter much better health-wise and physically. The other picks, I can at least envision the NCAA tournament breaking in such a way for them to be ordered like that.

[CptCrunch]

Tournament overeaction version. Shai fast rising. Dropping Bamba and MPJ.

Tier 1

1. Luka Doncic

Tier 2

2. Jaren Jackson Jr
3. Marvin Bagley III

Tier 3

4. Mikal Bridges
5. Shai-Gilgeous Alexander
6. DeAndre Ayton

Tier 4
7. Mohamed Bamba
8. Zhaire Smith
9. Trae Young
10. Wendell Carter Jr
11. Miles Bridges

Tier 5
Kevin Knox
Daniel Gafford
Lonnie Walker
Michael Porter Jr
Robert Williams
Dzanan Musa
Collin Sexton
Troy Brown
Hamidou Diallo
Anfernee Simons
Trevon Duval

[The Master]

I'm pretty high on Mikal, Zhaire and SGA, but honestly I don't see any legitimate explanation in having Porter in lower tier than Zhaire or to have Mikal, SGA and Ayton in the same tier.

[CptCrunch]

I'm pretty high on Mikal, Zhaire and SGA, but honestly I don't see any legitimate explanation in having Porter in lower tier than Zhaire or to have Mikal, SGA and Ayton in the same tier.

I don't see Ayton as a blue chip due to his exceptionally poor basketball IQ and motor.

I don't see MPJ as a functional athlete and nor do I expect him to be one in the NBA.

[The Master]

This is worst case scenario for both of them, and I don't think these statements are in fact accurate.

Porter's altheticism is underrated (he's quite athletic for 6'10'' teenager) and Ayton may not be the smartest or the most passionate player on court, but there's no evidence to say he's EXCEPTIONALLY poor in terms of IQ and motor. He was like second best scorer and best rebounder in his conference as a freshman - yeah, he has moments when he's just off, and he's not close to use his athleticism in accurate way, but to assume he's that bad in terms of motor? Come on, 20-12 as 19yo in college, he can't be that bad. Yes, he can develop into LMA-kind of player who just can't dominate opponents on regular basis despite having very good skillset, but with his size and skillset he will be still decent.

So I don't think it's a good way to assume 'best case scenario' for some players (SGA, Zhaire, because in having them that high you have to assume they will develop very good jumper) and 'worst case scenario' for others.

[CptCrunch]

This is worst case scenario for both of them, and I don't think these statements are in fact accurate.

Porter's altheticism is underrated (he's quite athletic for 6'10'' teenager) and Ayton may not be the smartest or the most passionate player on court, but there's no evidence to say he's EXCEPTIONALLY poor in terms of IQ and motor. He was like second best scorer and best rebounder in his conference as a freshman - yeah, he has moments when he's just off, and he's not close to use his athleticism in accurate way, but to assume he's that bad in terms of motor? Come on, 20-12 as 19yo in college, he can't be that bad. Yes, he can develop into LMA-kind of player who just can't dominate opponents on regular basis despite having very good skillset, but with his size and skillset he will be still decent.

So I don't think it's a good way to assume 'best case scenario' for some players (SGA, Zhaire, because in having them that high you have to assume they will develop very good jumper) and 'worst case scenario' for others.

Fair criticism, but I see those are unfixables flaws and/or deal breakers. Ayton to me looks like a Derrick Rose level of dumb prospect. I don't think Porter will play a healthy season in the league.

[CptCrunch]

New grading rubric edition, not much change over wise. Added Josh Okogie

Outcome descriptors:
10 - MVP+
9 - All-NBA
8 - All-Star
7 - Great Starter
6 - Good Starter
5 - Okay Starter/Great Bench
4 - Low Starter/Good Bench
3 - Decent Bench
2 - Ehh Bench
1 - Questionable NBA Player

Tier 1
1. Luka Doncic – 6-10

Tier 2
2. Jaren Jackson Jr – 4-9
3. Marvin Bagley III – 6-9

Tier 3
4. Mikal Bridges – 4-8
5. Shai-Gilgeous Alexander – 4-7
6. DeAndre Ayton – 4-7

Tier 4
7. Mohamed Bamba – 2-8
8. Trae Young – 2-8
9. Wendell Carter Jr - 4-7
10. Zhaire Smith – 2-7

Tier 5
Michael Porter Jr – 1-9
Kevin Knox – 2-7
Josh Okogie – 3-6
Lonnie Walker –3-6
Trevon Duval – 2-7
Collin Sexton – 2-7
Troy Brown – 2-6
Anfernee Simons – 2-6
Daniel Gafford – 2-6
Robert Williams – 1-6
Dzanan Musa – 1-6
Hamidou Diallo – 1-6

[CptCrunch]

Near end of NBA season edition. Gafford removed due to returning to school, hopefully there aren’t too many other returning to school players on the list. I was quite high on Gafford and was going to move him into my top 10.

Only 9 players in the first 4 tiers now. Keep in mind that I still have Ayton at 6 despite being in tier 4. He is my overrated to hell player of the year. Porter has talent, but I am completely skeptical of his health.

Outcome descriptors:
10 - MVP+
9 - All-NBA
8 - All-Star
7 - Great Starter
6 - Good Starter
5 - Okay Starter/Great Bench
4 - Low Starter/Good Bench
3 - Decent Bench
2 - Ehh Bench
1 - Questionable NBA Player

Tier 1
1. Luka Doncic – 6-10

Tier 2
2. Jaren Jackson Jr – 5-9
3. Marvin Bagley III – 5-9

Tier 3
4. Mikal Bridges – 4-8
5. Wendell Carter Jr - 4-7

Tier 4
6. DeAndre Ayton – 4-7
7. Shai-Gilgeous Alexander – 4-7
8. Mohamed Bamba – 2-7
9. Zhaire Smith – 3-7

Tier 5 - In rough order
Miles Bridges
Kevin Knox
Michael Porter Jr
Josh Okogie
Lonnie Walker
Trae Young
Jontay Porter
Gary Trent Jr

Tier 6 – In alphabetical order
Keita Bates-Diop
Tyus Battle
Bruce Brown
Troy Brown
Hamidou Diallo
Trevon Duval
Jacob Evans
Devonte Graham
Aaron Holiday
Chandler Hutchinson
De’Anthony Melton
Dzanan Musa
Collin Sexton
Anfernee Simons
Khyri Thomas
Robert Williams

[CptCrunch]

New 1-20

Tier 1
1. Luka Doncic – 6-10
2. Jaren Jackson Jr – 5-9

Tier 2
3. Marvin Bagley III – 5-9

Tier 3
4. Wendell Carter Jr - 4-7
5. Zhaire Smith – 3-7
6. DeAndre Ayton – 4-7

Tier 4
7. Miles Bridges – 3-8
8. Trae Young – 3-8
9. Shai-Gilgeous Alexander – 4-7
10. Mikal Bridges – 4-7

Tier 5 - In rough order
11. Mohamed Bamba
12. Michael Porter Jr
13. Josh Okogie
14. DeAnthony Melton
15. Troy Brown
16. Lonnie Walker
17. Gary Trent Jr
18. Kevin Knox
19. Robert Williams
20. Mitchell Robinson