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Who I would pick at each spot. I think this may be my last one, but hopefully I'll do at least one more. This is the first mock where I've considered team rosters. Full disclosure, I used hoopshype.com's aggregate mock to identify these thirty, then looked at them more closely to form my own opinions. I did not include other players in my draft pool.

1. Luka Doncic (94) - Phoenix Suns
2. Mohammed Bamba (89.5) - Sacramento Kings
3. Marvin Bagley (88) - Atlanta Hawks

4. Jaren Jackson, Jr. (86.5) - Memphis Grizzlies
5. DeAndre Ayton (85) - Dallas Mavericks
6. Collin Sexton - (82.5) - Orlando Magic

7. Wendell Carter, Jr. (81) - Chicago Bulls
8. Kevin Knox (80) - Cleveland Cavaliers
9. Trae Young (79.5) - New York Knicks

10. Mikal Bridges (79.5) - Philadelphia 76ers
11. Miles Bridges (74) - Charlotte Hornets
12. Lonnie Walker, Jr. (75.5) - Los Angeles Clippers

13. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (69.5) - Los Angeles Clippers
14. Zhaire Smith (71.5) - Denver Nuggets
15. Jacob Evans (71) - Washington Wizards

16. Michael Porter, Jr. (70.5) - Phoenix Suns
17. Donte DiVencenzo - (69) - Milwaukee Bucks
18. Troy Brown (70) - San Antonio Spurs

19. Dzanan Musa (67.5) - Atlanta Hawks
20. Kevin Huerter (67) - Minnesota Timberwolves
21. Robert Williams (65) - Utah Jazz

22. DeAnthony Melton (66.5) - Chicago Bulls
23. Elie Okobo (67) - Indiana Pacers
24. Chandler Hutchison (64) - Portland Trail Blazers

25. Mitchell Robinson (62) - Los Angeles Lakers
26. Keita Bates-Diop (63) - Philadelphia 76ers
27. Josh Okogie (63.5) - Boston Celtics

28. Khyrie Thomas (63) - Golden State Warriors
29. Jerome Robinson (57) - Brooklyn Nets
30. Aaron Holiday (57) - Atlanta Hawks

curious as to see why you have Ayton (who seems to be a consensus #1 almost) so low.

Spens1 wrote:curious as to see why you have Ayton (who seems to be a consensus #1 almost) so low.

I wouldn't call 5th "so low," but I get that you mean compared to where others have him.

He doesn't protect the rim particularly well. His jumpshot is okay (just okay), but I don't think he will shoot as well as Bamba or Bagley longterm. His defensive awareness and effort aren't terrific. His intangibles have been questioned - not that he's a bad guy or straight-up lazy, just that he may be a guy who's satisfied with just getting his (think Dwight Howard). Besides size, strength, and relative mobility, there is nothing about his game that says all-timer. None of the mental aspects like court awareness (BBIQ) or competitiveness, nor any specific skill, nor the effortless fluidity that the greats always possess. In scouting reports, his weaknesses are generally described as defense and offense. He can dominate for stretches, but I'm not sure he'll be a difference maker in the modern NBA, given his lackluster defensive awareness and effort and his tendency to settle for midrange isolation jumpers on offense. Lastly, his biomechanics strike me as suspect. There is something robotic about the way he moves, and I can't help but wonder whether he may find himself dealing with significant injuries at some point in his first five years. To be clear, barring injury, I don't expect him to bust. He'll be fine. It's not like I don't like him. I just like four other guys more.

EDIT: This doesn't prove anything, of course, but I was adamant that Embiid should go #1 even with his injury concerns. He was such a good prospect that I knew that if he was healthy, he would be a star. Nobody in this draft fits that category, certainly not Ayton. Doncic is closest, but he's not necessarily a lock the way Embiid - in my opinion at the time - was.

scrabbarista wrote:

Spens1 wrote:curious as to see why you have Ayton (who seems to be a consensus #1 almost) so low.

I wouldn't call 5th "so low," but I get that you mean compared to where others have him.

He doesn't protect the rim particularly well. His jumpshot is okay (just okay), but I don't think he will shoot as well as Bamba or Bagley longterm. His defensive awareness and effort aren't terrific. His intangibles have been questioned - not that he's a bad guy or straight-up lazy, just that he may be a guy who's satisfied with just getting his (think Dwight Howard). Besides size, strength, and relative mobility, there is nothing about his game that says all-timer. None of the mental aspects like court awareness (BBIQ) or competitiveness, nor any specific skill, nor the effortless fluidity that the greats always possess. In scouting reports, his weaknesses are generally described as defense and offense. He can dominate for stretches, but I'm not sure he'll be a difference maker in the modern NBA, given his lackluster defensive awareness and effort and his tendency to settle for midrange isolation jumpers on offense. Lastly, his biomechanics strike me as suspect. There is something robotic about the way he moves, and I can't help but wonder whether he may find himself dealing with significant injuries at some point in his first five years. To be clear, barring injury, I don't expect him to bust. He'll be fine. It's not like I don't like him. I just like four other guys more.

EDIT: This doesn't prove anything, of course, but I was adamant that Embiid should go #1 even with his injury concerns. He was such a good prospect that I knew that if he was healthy, he would be a star. Nobody in this draft fits that category, certainly not Ayton. Doncic is closest, but he's not necessarily a lock the way Embiid - in my opinion at the time - was.

I'm curious why you think Ayton will not have as good as shot as Bamba or Bagley. He is a better free throw shooter than both..73% for Ayton, 68% for Bamba, 63% for Bagley, and from long midrange he shot about 51% on over 5x the volume of the other two (Bagley shot 33% from there and Bamba 16%).

I agree with most of the defensive stuff.

bwgood77 wrote:

scrabbarista wrote:

Spens1 wrote:curious as to see why you have Ayton (who seems to be a consensus #1 almost) so low.

I wouldn't call 5th "so low," but I get that you mean compared to where others have him.

He doesn't protect the rim particularly well. His jumpshot is okay (just okay), but I don't think he will shoot as well as Bamba or Bagley longterm. His defensive awareness and effort aren't terrific. His intangibles have been questioned - not that he's a bad guy or straight-up lazy, just that he may be a guy who's satisfied with just getting his (think Dwight Howard). Besides size, strength, and relative mobility, there is nothing about his game that says all-timer. None of the mental aspects like court awareness (BBIQ) or competitiveness, nor any specific skill, nor the effortless fluidity that the greats always possess. In scouting reports, his weaknesses are generally described as defense and offense. He can dominate for stretches, but I'm not sure he'll be a difference maker in the modern NBA, given his lackluster defensive awareness and effort and his tendency to settle for midrange isolation jumpers on offense. Lastly, his biomechanics strike me as suspect. There is something robotic about the way he moves, and I can't help but wonder whether he may find himself dealing with significant injuries at some point in his first five years. To be clear, barring injury, I don't expect him to bust. He'll be fine. It's not like I don't like him. I just like four other guys more.

EDIT: This doesn't prove anything, of course, but I was adamant that Embiid should go #1 even with his injury concerns. He was such a good prospect that I knew that if he was healthy, he would be a star. Nobody in this draft fits that category, certainly not Ayton. Doncic is closest, but he's not necessarily a lock the way Embiid - in my opinion at the time - was.

I'm curious why you think Ayton will not have as good as shot as Bamba or Bagley. He is a better free throw shooter than both..73% for Ayton, 68% for Bamba, 63% for Bagley, and from long midrange he shot about 51% on over 5x the volume of the other two (Bagley shot 33% from there and Bamba 16%).

I agree with most of the defensive stuff.

Particularly Bamba. Ayton appears to aim the ball when he shoots, doesn't have much arc on his shot, and looks stiff in a way that I think will keep him from extending his range as well/far as the other two, particularly Bamba. I'm a believer in the changed mechanics showcased in Bamba's recent videos.

Bagley I'm less certain of. The accuracy of his shot can sometimes fluctuate so wildly that I almost wonder whether he's affected by migraine headaches the way Steve Francis was said to be when he played for Houston. (Apparently, it was so bad he played some games practically "blindfolded" - if you believe the story, that is.) Nonetheless, I will still bet on Bagley being a better shooter (longterm, not necessarily rookie year) than Ayton because Bagley appears to put more of his body into his shot, isn't as stiff, and I trust him more to work on his weakness. When I say "shooter," I'm mostly thinking of FT% and NBA 3P%, although midrange, too, of course. In the long run, if Ayton shoots a better percentage than the other two from midrange, but they outshoot him from the other two places, then I will probably consider them both better shooters than him.

I wasn't aware of the numbers you mention. Thank you for sharing. I shot 26/34 from three in my last year of organized basketball (in HS), so - having been a good shooter myself - I usually trust myself to just watch a guy shooting in-game and know whether he's a good shooter without necessarily needing to resort to the numbers, but the numbers are always the ultimate arbiter, of course.

scrabbarista wrote:

bwgood77 wrote:

scrabbarista wrote:
I wouldn't call 5th "so low," but I get that you mean compared to where others have him.

He doesn't protect the rim particularly well. His jumpshot is okay (just okay), but I don't think he will shoot as well as Bamba or Bagley longterm. His defensive awareness and effort aren't terrific. His intangibles have been questioned - not that he's a bad guy or straight-up lazy, just that he may be a guy who's satisfied with just getting his (think Dwight Howard). Besides size, strength, and relative mobility, there is nothing about his game that says all-timer. None of the mental aspects like court awareness (BBIQ) or competitiveness, nor any specific skill, nor the effortless fluidity that the greats always possess. In scouting reports, his weaknesses are generally described as defense and offense. He can dominate for stretches, but I'm not sure he'll be a difference maker in the modern NBA, given his lackluster defensive awareness and effort and his tendency to settle for midrange isolation jumpers on offense. Lastly, his biomechanics strike me as suspect. There is something robotic about the way he moves, and I can't help but wonder whether he may find himself dealing with significant injuries at some point in his first five years. To be clear, barring injury, I don't expect him to bust. He'll be fine. It's not like I don't like him. I just like four other guys more.

EDIT: This doesn't prove anything, of course, but I was adamant that Embiid should go #1 even with his injury concerns. He was such a good prospect that I knew that if he was healthy, he would be a star. Nobody in this draft fits that category, certainly not Ayton. Doncic is closest, but he's not necessarily a lock the way Embiid - in my opinion at the time - was.

I'm curious why you think Ayton will not have as good as shot as Bamba or Bagley. He is a better free throw shooter than both..73% for Ayton, 68% for Bamba, 63% for Bagley, and from long midrange he shot about 51% on over 5x the volume of the other two (Bagley shot 33% from there and Bamba 16%).

I agree with most of the defensive stuff.

Particularly Bamba. Ayton appears to aim the ball when he shoots, doesn't have much arc on his shot, and looks stiff in a way that I think will keep him from extending his range as well/far as the other two, particularly Bamba. I'm a believer in the changed mechanics showcased in Bamba's recent videos.

Bagley I'm less certain of. The accuracy of his shot can sometimes fluctuate so wildly that I almost wonder whether he's affected by migraine headaches the way Steve Francis was said to be when he played for Houston. (Apparently, it was so bad he played some games practically "blindfolded" - if you believe the story, that is.) Nonetheless, I will still bet on Bagley being a better shooter (longterm, not necessarily rookie year) than Ayton because Bagley appears to put more of his body into his shot, isn't as stiff, and I trust him more to work on his weakness. When I say "shooter," I'm mostly thinking of FT% and NBA 3P%, although midrange, too, of course. In the long run, if Ayton shoots a better percentage than the other two from midrange, but they outshoot him from the other two places, then I will probably consider them both better shooters than him.

I wasn't aware of the numbers you mention. Thank you for sharing. I shot 26/34 from three in my last year of organized basketball (in HS), so - having been a good shooter myself - I usually trust myself to just watch a guy shooting in-game and know whether he's a good shooter without necessarily needing to resort to the numbers, but the numbers are always the ultimate arbiter, of course.

Yeah, he does have a flat shot, but I am encouraged by his reasonably good FT%, great long mid range shooting on good volume, and decent 3 pt shooting (though low volume) at 34%. Those #s I had were from stepien's shot charts so you can look at them for any player here.. https://www.thestepien.com/shot-chart/

I also don't think he settles for too many mid range shots, given he shot over half his shots at the rim at near 80%.

I am not sure how many bigs in college over the years have scored over 20 ppg on 65% TS% but I bet it's not many, if any. Just checked Blake Griffin who was close as a soph but as a freshman was 14 ppg on 58% TS%.

AD was 14 ppg on 65.4 TS%.

I think Ayton will be very efficient on offense, but I hope his defensive limitations are not as bad as I have feared they might end up being. He is very mobile on the perimeter though and moves his feet well...is good 1 on 1, just poor with help defending and his low steal rate is a bad indicator...not a great rim protector but also played 4 and improved in that respect throughout the year.

Being an AZ fan I watched him quite a bit so I was worried and had Doncic 1 all year and JJJ right there but have Ayton 2. I have seen a lot of Bamba living in Austin as well...in interviews and on tape and workouts I love him...in games not so much....on occasion but he needs to gain a lot of weight or I think he's too frail and will get pushed around too much. I've never been particularly high on Bagley who is worse than Ayton at rim protecting, and a really looks lost on defense. I think he has to play 4 but that FT% worries me in that he might not be able to stretch the floor. If you look at his shot chart all his 3s were at the top of the key and they were pretty much all wide open catch and shoots playing with 4 nba caliber players. He has the work ethic though. I think he might fit in fairly well with a stretch 5 like Marc Gasol or Brook Lopez where he could play as a finisher inside and rebound. Preferably one who could protect the rim though.

bwgood77 wrote:

scrabbarista wrote:

bwgood77 wrote:
I'm curious why you think Ayton will not have as good as shot as Bamba or Bagley. He is a better free throw shooter than both..73% for Ayton, 68% for Bamba, 63% for Bagley, and from long midrange he shot about 51% on over 5x the volume of the other two (Bagley shot 33% from there and Bamba 16%).

I agree with most of the defensive stuff.

Particularly Bamba. Ayton appears to aim the ball when he shoots, doesn't have much arc on his shot, and looks stiff in a way that I think will keep him from extending his range as well/far as the other two, particularly Bamba. I'm a believer in the changed mechanics showcased in Bamba's recent videos.

Bagley I'm less certain of. The accuracy of his shot can sometimes fluctuate so wildly that I almost wonder whether he's affected by migraine headaches the way Steve Francis was said to be when he played for Houston. (Apparently, it was so bad he played some games practically "blindfolded" - if you believe the story, that is.) Nonetheless, I will still bet on Bagley being a better shooter (longterm, not necessarily rookie year) than Ayton because Bagley appears to put more of his body into his shot, isn't as stiff, and I trust him more to work on his weakness. When I say "shooter," I'm mostly thinking of FT% and NBA 3P%, although midrange, too, of course. In the long run, if Ayton shoots a better percentage than the other two from midrange, but they outshoot him from the other two places, then I will probably consider them both better shooters than him.

I wasn't aware of the numbers you mention. Thank you for sharing. I shot 26/34 from three in my last year of organized basketball (in HS), so - having been a good shooter myself - I usually trust myself to just watch a guy shooting in-game and know whether he's a good shooter without necessarily needing to resort to the numbers, but the numbers are always the ultimate arbiter, of course.

Yeah, he does have a flat shot, but I am encouraged by his reasonably good FT%, great long mid range shooting on good volume, and decent 3 pt shooting (though low volume) at 34%. Those #s I had were from stepien's shot charts so you can look at them for any player here.. https://www.thestepien.com/shot-chart/

I also don't think he settles for too many mid range shots, given he shot over half his shots at the rim at near 80%.

I am not sure how many bigs in college over the years have scored over 20 ppg on 65% TS% but I bet it's not many, if any. Just checked Blake Griffin who was close as a soph but as a freshman was 14 ppg on 58% TS%.

AD was 14 ppg on 65.4 TS%.

I think Ayton will be very efficient on offense, but I hope his defensive limitations are not as bad as I have feared they might end up being. He is very mobile on the perimeter though and moves his feet well...is good 1 on 1, just poor with help defending and his low steal rate is a bad indicator...not a great rim protector but also played 4 and improved in that respect throughout the year.

Being an AZ fan I watched him quite a bit so I was worried and had Doncic 1 all year and JJJ right there but have Ayton 2. I have seen a lot of Bamba living in Austin as well...in interviews and on tape and workouts I love him...in games not so much....on occasion but he needs to gain a lot of weight or I think he's too frail and will get pushed around too much. I've never been particularly high on Bagley who is worse than Ayton at rim protecting, and a really looks lost on defense. I think he has to play 4 but that FT% worries me in that he might not be able to stretch the floor. If you look at his shot chart all his 3s were at the top of the key and they were pretty much all wide open catch and shoots playing with 4 nba caliber players. He has the work ethic though. I think he might fit in fairly well with a stretch 5 like Marc Gasol or Brook Lopez where he could play as a finisher inside and rebound. Preferably one who could protect the rim though.

Bagley is tough. I'd love to know his general intelligence quotient. I have him high because 1. his tools (quick-jump, mobility) are as great/rare as anyone's in the draft, 2. I trust his character, and 3. rebounding, so I've heard, translates better than anything from NCAA to NBA. You're probably right about Bagley's fit at first, but seeing the potential I do, I'd hope he can eventually play small-ball 5.

Those numbers on Ayton (ppg/ts%) are awfully hard to find fault with. Time will tell. I believe that in 8-10 years, Ayton will be viewed less positively than Doncic, Bamba, and Bagley. That's kind of the time frame I view the draft through.

scrabbarista wrote:

bwgood77 wrote:

scrabbarista wrote:
Particularly Bamba. Ayton appears to aim the ball when he shoots, doesn't have much arc on his shot, and looks stiff in a way that I think will keep him from extending his range as well/far as the other two, particularly Bamba. I'm a believer in the changed mechanics showcased in Bamba's recent videos.

Bagley I'm less certain of. The accuracy of his shot can sometimes fluctuate so wildly that I almost wonder whether he's affected by migraine headaches the way Steve Francis was said to be when he played for Houston. (Apparently, it was so bad he played some games practically "blindfolded" - if you believe the story, that is.) Nonetheless, I will still bet on Bagley being a better shooter (longterm, not necessarily rookie year) than Ayton because Bagley appears to put more of his body into his shot, isn't as stiff, and I trust him more to work on his weakness. When I say "shooter," I'm mostly thinking of FT% and NBA 3P%, although midrange, too, of course. In the long run, if Ayton shoots a better percentage than the other two from midrange, but they outshoot him from the other two places, then I will probably consider them both better shooters than him.

I wasn't aware of the numbers you mention. Thank you for sharing. I shot 26/34 from three in my last year of organized basketball (in HS), so - having been a good shooter myself - I usually trust myself to just watch a guy shooting in-game and know whether he's a good shooter without necessarily needing to resort to the numbers, but the numbers are always the ultimate arbiter, of course.

Yeah, he does have a flat shot, but I am encouraged by his reasonably good FT%, great long mid range shooting on good volume, and decent 3 pt shooting (though low volume) at 34%. Those #s I had were from stepien's shot charts so you can look at them for any player here.. https://www.thestepien.com/shot-chart/

I also don't think he settles for too many mid range shots, given he shot over half his shots at the rim at near 80%.

I am not sure how many bigs in college over the years have scored over 20 ppg on 65% TS% but I bet it's not many, if any. Just checked Blake Griffin who was close as a soph but as a freshman was 14 ppg on 58% TS%.

AD was 14 ppg on 65.4 TS%.

I think Ayton will be very efficient on offense, but I hope his defensive limitations are not as bad as I have feared they might end up being. He is very mobile on the perimeter though and moves his feet well...is good 1 on 1, just poor with help defending and his low steal rate is a bad indicator...not a great rim protector but also played 4 and improved in that respect throughout the year.

Being an AZ fan I watched him quite a bit so I was worried and had Doncic 1 all year and JJJ right there but have Ayton 2. I have seen a lot of Bamba living in Austin as well...in interviews and on tape and workouts I love him...in games not so much....on occasion but he needs to gain a lot of weight or I think he's too frail and will get pushed around too much. I've never been particularly high on Bagley who is worse than Ayton at rim protecting, and a really looks lost on defense. I think he has to play 4 but that FT% worries me in that he might not be able to stretch the floor. If you look at his shot chart all his 3s were at the top of the key and they were pretty much all wide open catch and shoots playing with 4 nba caliber players. He has the work ethic though. I think he might fit in fairly well with a stretch 5 like Marc Gasol or Brook Lopez where he could play as a finisher inside and rebound. Preferably one who could protect the rim though.

Bagley is tough. I'd love to know his general intelligence quotient. I have him high because 1. his tools (quick-jump, mobility) are as great/rare as anyone's in the draft, 2. I trust his character, and 3. rebounding, so I've heard, translates better than anything from NCAA to NBA. You're probably right about Bagley's fit at first, but seeing the potential I do, I'd hope he can eventually play small-ball 5.

Those numbers on Ayton (ppg/ts%) are awfully hard to find fault with. Time will tell. I believe that in 8-10 years, Ayton will be viewed less positively than Doncic, Bamba, and Bagley. That's kind of the time frame I view the draft through.

It's tight, because coming into the season I thought Bagley would be 1, and then when I read about Bamba, I loved him, but watching them I never felt impressed. Ayton was impressive but some defensive stuff was worrisome. I love Doncic. I love JJJ's skill set.

I would say in 10 years there is a good chance Doncic/JJJ could be viewed as better. I think Bamba could be...he really showed the Phx media how he changed his shot, moving his elbows out and decreasing the angle or release of how far his arms bent backwards before shots, giving him more control with the shots coming off his first two fingers, etc. I think he could be a monster but could struggle. I'm lowest on Bagley. I do think, however, that for Ayton, the sky is the limit.

BBIQ is big for me though, and I would rate Doncic #1 there, and JJJ #2. And then Bamba probably #3. I think Carter might be underrated and has a very high floor. I think Ayton and Bagley have the worst bbiq of the top guys....though Porter might be there too..both have strong work ethics though...I know some have knocked Ayton's but he won hardest worker in UA's practice every week but 1 when he was sick.

It will be interesting to look back at this draft in 10 years though, because opinions are all over the place.