nolang1's Big Board

[nolang1]

2018
Luka Doncic

Spoiler:

His current edge in skill and overall impact over everyone else in the draft is too much to pass up. I don't think he's that bad athletically for his age either and has the frame and skill level where he'll be able to take a lot of the players he can't drive around into the post a la Joe Johnson. His outside shot is fine in my eyes; Trae Young's percentages also took a nosedive over the course of the season and Doncic has played way more minutes against tougher competition. The only thing keeping me from putting him in his own tier at the top is that the two players after him have received maybe 1% as much legitimate coaching as he has to this point.

Marvin Bagley

Spoiler:

He defies archetypes by being an elite rebounder and finisher who has quickness and a solid foundation of offensive skill. If he'd been the #59 recruit in the country everyone would've been raving about his highlights and how he came out of nowhere to be so productive despite being so raw, but since he was #1 in his class you mostly get people complaining about how he isn't Anthony Davis. Gets a lot of flak for being a difficult type of player to build around, but I'm of the opinion that if your team was bad enough to be trying to lose games for half the season, maybe trying to completely retool around a high lottery talent isn't the worst idea in the world.

DeAndre Ayton

Spoiler:

Like Bagley he looked a step slow on help defense at times, which is not altogether surprising considering their age and how badly their teams' perimeter defenders would routinely get beaten off the dribble. The amount of forgiveness Ben Simmons received for the occasional lapse in intensity while he was forced to play in the NCAA for a season hasn't been extended to Ayton, which seems strange to me given how much of a circus it was at Arizona. For where he played on defense (and even offense as he wasn't just planted on the low block) his rebounding numbers were phenomenal; it can be easy to forget that rebounding is an important component of defense due to how drastically some players can inflate their numbers by stealing uncontested boards from their teammates, but rebound percentage is one of the four factors for a reason.

------------------------------------------------
Jaren Jackson

Spoiler:

I'm low on his offensive game as the release on his shot means even NBA guards and wings can contest him on a pick-and-pop, and potential floor spacing is going to be his main contribution on that end for the first few years of his career at least. But he's definitely got the highest defensive upside in the draft and is a #1-worthy prospect in a lot of years.

Mikal Bridges

Spoiler:

I don't put much stock into the age concerns as he had an 11.5 BPM as a freshman; if people can get behind Jontay Porter as a lottery pick these days it's not like Bridges came out of nowhere. As it is, he's the best team defender in the draft, an excellent transition player, and much closer to someone like Kevin Huerter in shooting ability than Wes Johnson or whichever other fungible wing people compare him to. He seems a solid bet to be at least a +2.5 RPM player, and I think his perceived lack of upside is overstated as he's expanded his game every year while still operating within the constraints of an extremely successful team.

Trae Young

Spoiler:

Kind of in the middle on Young. If he's more like Damian Lillard than Curry as a shooter, that's just a borderline All-Star player when you factor in Young's defense.

Mo Bamba

Spoiler:

If he were a year younger I'd consider him for the number one pick. I already knew he had a freakishly long wingspan and was media-savvy, so my opinion of him hasn't changed much since the season ended.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Spoiler:

Would have him higher but think there's a decent chance he's just congenitally skinny and will always be lacking some element of power and explosiveness to his game. Could be Tony Parker-esque on offense with more passing and defensive versatility.

Michael Porter Jr.

Spoiler:

I've been saying for the last year or so he was overrated as a potential #1 prospect and his path to becoming a franchise player was heavily dependent being a 3-point sniper who could hit 40-plus percent on high volume. The 9th pick is about where my concerns of missing out on this potential franchise player are balanced out by my concerns that his sitting out a year prevented him from being exposed as a mid-range gunner. Even if he's closer to the latter, he's at least the kind of player where the 'potential #1 option' label will stick with him for long enough that you can find teams who would be willing to trade for him.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Troy Brown

Spoiler:

He really stood out to me 2 summers ago at the U17 Worlds. He's young enough that him looking like a better athlete in the NBA won't be that surprising, and his shot seems to be much improved in workouts.

Collin Sexton

Spoiler:

Betting on his intelligence, competitiveness, and his outlier free-throw rate; a little bit of shooting improvement will go a long way with him. There's a steep learning curve to playing point guard and there aren't too many good ones under the age of 25 or so right now.

Miles Bridges

Spoiler:

Even when he was high school his athleticism has never seemed as functional as his highlights indicated. But he's a good shooter for the amount of athleticism he has, and this is the point of the draft where getting someone who has a solid 10+ year career as a starter is a good outcome.

Zhaire Smith

Spoiler:

Really like his mentality and he seems to have been working hard on his shot, but it's a big gap in skill between playing power forward in college and playing on the wing in the NBA. Don't think he has extremely high upside in terms of creating offense but if he's a mini Andre Roberson who is able to hit a wide-open corner three that's a good pick for this range.

Wendell Carter

Spoiler:

Not as switchable as the other bigs ranked higher and is more of a B+ at a few things than particularly outstanding in one area. If I'm a team that has to worry about stopping a player like Towns or Embiid in a future playoff series, I'd rather invest in perimeter players and aggressively double-team the bigs than try to play them conventionally with someone like Carter.

Robert Williams

Dzanan Musa

Spoiler:

Microwave scorer who can potentially do more as his handle, passing, and first step are underrated for someone his size. I feel his athleticism can improve as he gets into an NBA program.

Elie Okobo

Jaylen Brunson

Spoiler:

It feels like the main argument against him is "you can find guys like Fred VanVleet as undrafted free agents." Well, there are obviously a lot of teams that would rather have VanVleet now than whoever they drafted in the first round.

Keita Bates-Diop

Kevin Knox

Spoiler:

Seems low to have him here, but I don't think there's too much of a drop-off from 10 to 20 in this draft and can certainly see the case for him being the highest upside guy in that range. He's moving up in workouts, but I was never that concerned about his ability to look good in that kind of setting.

-------------------------------
Jarred Vanderbilt

DeAnthony Melton

Kevin Huerter

Jevon Carter

Gary Clark
--------------------------
Honorable mention:
Landry Shamet
Rawle Alkins
Josh Okogie
Lonnie Walker
Omari Spellman
Jacob Evans
Isaac Bonga
Shake Milton
Mitchell Robinson
Aaron Holiday
Hamidou Diallo
Rodions Kurucs
Kostas Antetokounmpo
Issuf Sanon
[/spoiler]

[nolang1]

2019:

Zion Williamson

Spoiler:

I think he'll be closer to Blake Griffin than Lebron and worry about his long-term health with his frame and playstyle (especially on the New Orleans "let's just save money by using the same trainers as the football team" Pelicans). Going beyond his amazing stats, I think he has a Ben Simmons type of shooting form where even if he improves his accuracy, he's never going to be much of a weapon shooting off the dribble, and defensively his off-the-charts ability to get blocks and steals will be somewhat offset by how often he's able to get back in transition at his size in a league that's going to keep getting faster and faster. He'll be a star and is a way better prospect than anyone else in the draft, but let's put it this way - if he's got appreciably more trade value than Anthony Davis, New Orleans could trade the pick and be a stacked team sooner rather than later

----------------
Ja Morant

Spoiler:

I want to be lower on him, but the main thing that keeps him very slightly at #2 is his passing, maybe the most elite skill any player has in this entire draft other than Zion's (and maybe Hayes's) athleticism. It's not just the raw assist numbers, but a high percentage of the passes he makes lead to relatively valuable looks for his teammates: either threes, layups, or foul shots. There are a few players such as Nikola Jokic, Tyus Jones, and Chris Paul who have seemingly overrated DRPM/DRAPM values, but what I think is happening for them is that they do such a good job of making sure their team gets a quality shot each time down (without turning it over that much) that opposing teams aren't able to get out in transition as much. That said, if I were Memphis I'd rather trade down multiple times and get someone like Hayes than just draft Morant #2.

RJ Barrett

Spoiler:

I had him #1 (and Zion #2) before the season, and my comparison for him was more athletic, less skilled Ginobili. I'd say his athleticism (similarly to Manu, Harden, and Doncic he's elite when it comes to deceleration) and passing/decision-making (Zion didn't have the stamina to play the kind of defense he did and be the man offensively for that many possessions, and a lot of Dukes's shooters were in fact so bad that a contested Barrett 2 was a better option than an open 3 from one of them) are underrated. If he can improve his shot, which seems to be one of the more improvable aspects of one's game for a player that age, he'll be solid. I'm definitely willing to forgive a bit of inefficency for players who play big minutes (Barrett played basically 9-10 full games' worth more minutes than Zion), and this draft is weak enough that if he can become a better shooting and passing version of DeRozan that's a worthy top-5 pick

De'Andre Hunter

Spoiler:

most Kawhi-like of any prospect physically. He is essentially a 'high-usage' defender (e.g. slide to whatever position the opposing team's best player is and give all his teammates comparatively easier matchups) and on offense can hit threes and be physical enough to punish teams that switch smaller players on him. There's a pretty decent track record of recent Virginia players looking more dynamic offensively in the pros, and I'd extend that benefit of the doubt to Hunter, who's more athletic than players like Brogdon or Mike Scott or Joe Harris

Jaxson Hayes

Spoiler:

just from a relatively simple stats perspective, he's got the 2nd highest BPM of any freshman after Zion, and 3rd place isn't particularly close. Add that to his obvious athletic traits and growth trajectory (whatever you could say about his instincts now, they're much better than they were 2 years ago when he was a high-school benchwarmer and he's still getting used to what to do as the biggest, most athletic guy on the court) and this is a player I'd draft as high as 2nd if I wasn't allowed to trade down. He compares well enough to players like Chandler and Capela that he should be able to put on enough weight to hold his own at center, and he can be more dynamic offensively than either of them. His lack of passing is overstated as opposing teams bend themselves out of shape to deny him the ball and when he does get it, he's such a good enough finisher + free-throw shooter that he should be going up with it the vast majority of the time

Darius Garland

Spoiler:

I don't think he really moved up draft boards as much as he was anywhere from #5-10 in his high school class going in, and then Little and Reddish had pretty bad seasons by any stretch of the imagination. Similar to Barrett, I'd say the shooting around Garland (that plus his young age) was bad enough that it's hard to blame him for not hitting the open man as much as simply looking at film would indicate

Jarrett Culver

Spoiler:

my main nitpick, which I had with Zhaire Smith as well, is that Texas Tech's coach is good enough that he gives his players a substantial defensive advantage, so I question how much of a difference they can make from the backcourt in the NBA, and then offensively Culver doesn't exactly have a lot of shot-making ability or any other elite skill to fall back on.

Sekou Dombouya

Spoiler:

taller than reported, youngest player in the draft, and has a nice-looking shot. This is a weak enough draft that Talen Horton-Tucker is a borderline lottery prospect despite his lack of college productivity/efficiency, so I figure Sekou should get some love for being younger and bigger and better at shooting.

-----
Brandon Clarke
Grant Williams
Goga Bitadze

Spoiler:

these guys all figure to be solid NBA players for quite a while, which at this range in this draft is better than you would expect to get. I'd like to put Clarke on an even higher tier, but he's old and is just the kind of player to get overrated by college BPM because he blocks a lot of shots against overmatched opponents (he was noticeably more productive against WCC opponents than high majors

-----
PJ Washington
Luka Samanic
Coby White
Talen Horton-Tucker
Shamorie Ponds
Nassir Little
Cam Reddish

Spoiler:

Washington fits the bill as a 3/4 who can defend and maybe hit threes. Samanic fits the bill as someone whose draft stock was sabatoged so he'd stay in Europe another year but was good enough to be an obvious NBA player in the future. Other than that, this draft class is weak enough that it's fine to have Reddish and Little this high just based on high school play. Ponds is maybe the most out of the ordinary here but the closest comparison based on stats and age is Kemba; he just needs to get in better shape and polish his three-point shot (which has a solid foundation based on his free-throw percentage and his ability to create space off the dribble)

--------
Chuma Okeke
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Matisse Thbyulle
Jontay Porter
Darius Bazley
Romeo Langford
Joshua Obiesie
Nic Claxton
Tyler Herro
Bol Bol
Mfiondu Kabengele
Cameron Johnson

Spoiler:

would like to be higher on Herro based on his college stats, but he benefits from right-handed bias in that a player as left-hand dominant as he is right-hand dominant would be docked much more. Between that and the negative wingspan, it's hard for me to be too high on him. Okeke could be a top-10 player in the class after a year off, but I don't want to totally discount an ACL tear

-----
Jalen McDaniels
Dylan Windler
Kevin Porter
Zach Norvell
Terence Davis
Carsen Edwards
Admiral Schofield
KZ Okpala
Alen Smailagic
Louis King
Bruno Fernando
Ty Jerome
Rui Hachimura
Keldon Johnson
Jon Konchar
Daniel Gafford
Luguentz Dort
Ty Jerome

everyone at this point is someone I'd just draft at whatever position in the 2nd round, and then if none of them were available I'd just trade them for future draft picks.

[nolang1]

PU this draft stinks. Here's a lottery and change for now.

Anthony Edwards
Killian Hayes
James Wiseman
Cole Anthony
Tyrese Haliburton
LaMelo Ball
------------------------
Jahmi'us Ramsey
Devin Vassell
Deni Avdija
------------------------
Onyeka Ogonkwu
Obi Toppin
Paul Reed
Anton Watson
Isaac Okoro
RJ Hampton
N'Faly Dante
Precious Achiuwa
Tyler Bey

[nolang1]

Don't want to keep rewatching the same stuff from 6+ months ago on 2020 picks, so for now I'm going to put down some redrafts. Obviously still going to be weighted for upside when a lot of the players in question are younger than some 2020 draftees will be.

2018, two years out

1. Luka Doncic (#1 pre-draft)

Obviously there wasn't much not to like with him, my comparison was James Harden with Joe Johnson size/athleticism. He's been able to hit the ground running with a good organization that made him the franchise cornerstone and put him into that kind of system right away, and the biggest positive surprise from how his career has gone so far has been how quickly he's mastered the Hardenesque foul baiting and how immediately the refs have rewarded him for it when it usually takes some time for young players to get calls.

I did figure he'd be a safe bet to reach all these 'best/most productive at this age since LeBron' milestones, but I'm going to be cautious on how likely he is to be the GOAT for the same reason I didn't have him #1 in this class by the gargantuan margin he is now: he's been a pro for so long and at some point there's an upper limit to how skilled he can be. His defense is nothing bad but nothing special, and just as we look at free throw percentage to see how college players are going to translate to the NBA three-pointer, in the "GOAT draft" I'm looking at Luka being a low 70s free throw shooter and low 30s on threes (which is certainly not bad at all given the difficulty of the shots he takes) and saying it's a long shot he'll ever be the Curry-like volume three-point shooter it would probably take for him to be so good at offense to overcome how much better players like Jordan and LeBron were at defense. Another thing to watch as his career progresses will be whether he runs into the same issues Harden has in terms of wearing down later in the postseason because of how much he does on offense.

--------

2. Jaren Jackson Jr (#4)

2 through 7 could be in about any order for me with JJJ just getting the slight nod on youth/potential despite being probably the worst player of them all currently. I did not see the potential DPOY level defender many saw coming out of college as fouls and a lack of rebounding have continued to be issues, but somehow with his goofy-looking shot he's almost at 40% on threes on high volume. That's the hard part. When he gets stronger he can be more of a 5 than a 4/5 tweener, which should help him individually defensively and give his team a lot more flexibility in what kind of lineups he can fit in.

3. DeAndre Ayton (#3)

Not too much to say about him. He's shown he can guard on the perimeter pretty well for a big and his positioning improved from last year to this. Lots of different areas where he can improve from here, and now that the Suns have got it going and formed an identity he can focus on being more of an efficient roll man offensively.

4. Mikal Bridges (#5)

Consummate 3-D player who doesn't turn it over either, which every team needs. Lots of times the 'D' in 3-D just means it's someone who can switch across positions and hold their own, but when it's the kind of defender who isn't just a team defender but can take the toughest individual matchups like Luka or bubble TJ Warren and give them a really difficult time, that's another level.

5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (#8)

So fun to watch and made big strides from year 1 to year 2, capped off with what has been a super playoff debut so far. The next step to make is whether he can be more of a point guard and make his teammates better, which to be fair he isn't really asked to do playing alongside CP3 in the Thunder's iso-heavy offense.

6. Trae Young (#6)

The opposite of Bridges where you have to give him the ball and build your team around him, and if you do get to the playoffs his glaring defensive weakness will be picked on non-stop. Just my personal preference though, and like I said 2-7 would all be in a pretty close tier. Maybe these precise numbers would've been hard to predict from him already just due to the general offensive explosion of the league, but as evidenced by not moving him from his pre-draft ranking, I figured he'd score and pass with the best of them and give most of it back on defense. He obviously had too much talent to be like Jimmer.

7. Michael Porter Jr. (#7)

Damn this guy has looked so horrible at defense, but he at least has some mobility for his size and the excuse of not having played since high school. The injury history and this emerging tendency to say some wacko stuff to the media means his career could play out in a lot of different ways, but just as before the draft it's hard to be too low on someone who can score so easily at 6'10.

------------
8. Marvin Bagley III (#2)

Between injuries and being one of two top 10 picks who started his career on a team that was trying to make the playoffs rather than tank and develop young players, he hasn't gotten to show much. If he ended up being the #2 player in the draft after all, I wouldn't be totally shocked, but who knows if he's just always going to be injury-prone at this point.

9. Mitchell Robinson (outside top 25)

Would've had him around 9 or 10 pre-draft if it didn't seem like he wasn't that into basketball. Yeah he can look clueless at times, but he's shown up and played his role rather than thinking he's Porzingis or someone, which can go a long way when you're 7'1 and athletic.

10. Donte DiVincenzo (outside top 25)

Can definitely bring some nice energy off the bench, but it would be nice if he could hit more threes given he's usually the guy other teams are leaving open. Devonte' Graham and some younger players like Sexton, Carter, Bamba and De'Anthony Melton are right in this mix as well.

[nolang1]

2019 re-draft

1. Zion Williamson (#1)

His rookie year went about as expected for me; probably a little better on offense and a little worse on defense. I had him as the clear #1 pick but was skeptical about his ability to get up and down the court for big minutes, so I would've been willing to trade down for a package that valued him as a Luka/Giannis/AD type of player. There very well could be some red flags with his weight where he's genetically predisposed to put on pounds super easily (even if he was in tip-top shape, gaining 100 pounds in 3-4 years or whatever just strikes me as being really bad for one's joints and ligaments), and even if he slims down he'd run into the same problem Kevin Love has had where it's a trade-off between being able to carve out space to rebound/finish around the basket and get up and down the floor/guard on the perimeter.

2. Ja Morant (#2)

He had a lot on his plate for a rookie and exceeded my expectations, especially in terms of finishing. However, he was played as a non-shooter during the bubble and didn't punish teams, so between that and his lack of size on defense it's still hard for me to see him as a super high-upside player. He's still done enough to separate himself from the rest of the pack I had after Zion and close the distance between him and the top pick, especially when factoring in health.

--------------------------------

3. Jaxson Hayes (#5)

I'd like to think this past playoffs season has taught people that talent comes in all shapes and sizes and you don't need to completely write off big men just because the Warriors at one point happened to get a stacked team that featured 3 of the top 10 three-point shooters of all time. The only players from this draft who had a better all-around season than Hayes are either Zion or Ja or are 3 years older. He's had a pattern of exceeding expectations (becoming a top 100 recruit when he was a high school backup, becoming a one-and-done lottery pick when he was expected to be a redshirt or a 3-4 year player at Texas, being a solid rotation-level player at New Orleans when people thought he was going to be a G league player for at least a year) that I think will continue into the future as he grows into his frame.

4. Brandon Clarke (#9)

He's added a bit of a three-point shot to his game. I'm skeptical of how much more he can add beyond that, plus like with Zion he has physical limitations that will prevent him from being the DPOY type of player those who just looked at his DBPM in college assumed he would be. But yeah, with a decent three-point shot he's obviously the kind of player any team would want.

------------------------------------

5. Cam Reddish (#12-18)

It already feels like slim pickings at this point, and this is just the high-upside, low floor choice of the lot. Between Zion's inability to guard on the perimeter or get back in transition defense and RJ's continued lack of an outside shot, Cam's lack of production in college is more excusable and he improved a lot throughout his rookie season. Basically everyone from this class sucked in their rookie year, and he at least fits the bill as a 3-D wing with some shot creation potential.

6. Tyler Herro (late first)

This is a weak class and he at least has one of the most important skills down in being a good shooter. I can definitely see him being JJ Redick but less of a defensive liability, which is a very good player, but I think it's important to separate the player from the team he ended up with. If he'd been drafted by the Knicks or the Cavs instead of Barrett or Garland, those teams probably would've still sucked and the Heat still would've had enough to get to the finals; instead he's been able to be the 4th/5th option on a good team and show off his improvements while a player on a crappy team hasn't been able to play since March. As I said last year, he's not much of a finisher with his left hand, which makes me worry I'm overreacting to his situation to put him this high, but with how weak this draft class is I'd be happy to have him just for the trade value he apparently has at this point - I've seen people saying he'd be the #1 pick in 2020!

7. R.J. Barrett (#3)

Not too much to say about him. He ended up in a bad situation and shot badly enough that you can most rule out any future superstardom. Ending up with more assists than turnovers was a bit of a pleasant surprise on that team and he's good enough in the open floor that he can still be pretty good if he becomes a passable three-point shooter, which he has plenty of time to do. One thing about this season is that rookies tend to beef up their stats at the end of the year against tanking/resting teams, and Barrett is kind of the stereotypical guy who'd put up a bunch of 25+ point games in April against G league players who are not equipped to guard a player like him.

8. P.J. Washington (#12)

We're getting to the point where he seems to be a good bet to be a regular solid combo forward, so why not. I'm skeptical about his upside given his free-throw percentage - if this was just a fluke three-point shooting year from him and he regresses, he'd be a pretty marginal player.

9. De'Andre Hunter (#4)

With a shortened season I'm loathe to move too much from my pre-draft rankings, and Hunter figures to be a switchable combo forward. He has the tools to be a very good defender, and I think if he were on a team where he didn't have to babysit for Trae Young all the time he could already be part of a great defensive team.

10. Chuma Okeke (#19)

This is essentially a vote of no confidence for this rookie class. Okeke would've been a top-10 pick to me if not for his injury, and if he's recovered from it there hasn't been anyone from this class who's played so well as to put themselves ahead of him. This draft is pretty flat from 5 on so there are plenty of other players I've considered for this spot.

Honorable mention: Coby White, Darius Garland, Bol Bol, Talen Horton-Tucker, Sekou Dombouya, Kevin Porter Jr.

[nolang1]

2020

General thoughts on this class and how it fits in with the current state of the league:

Spoiler:

There's not one player I can point to and say, 'yeah, it's more likely than not he becomes an all-star,' hence the relatively large first tier. In general I find it more productive to look more closely at the top-ranked players and find a few whose chances of becoming a top 20 or so player (in terms of overall impact, not being named to an all-star team or scoring a lot) I can safely rule out and keep a relatively open mind about those who remain than to have a 100-deep big board with like 30 players I've talked myself into thinking will be way better than expected. I suppose I'm more certain than most about the amount of uncertainty in the draft and in most cases would be willing to trade down for more chances of getting lucky.

As I put this together, the line between a ranking of prospects and a trade value chart is somewhat blurred. For example, I think the median or even 80th-percentile outcome for James Wiseman (who has a higher chance of being a #2/#3 player on a great team and lower chance of being just bad) is higher than it is for LaMelo Ball, but I'd rather take Ball #1 and trade the pick than take Wiseman #1 even before accounting for Minnesota already having a big. Likewise, in my first time writing through this (might add them in later if I have time) there will be players like Jalen Smith or Malachi Flynn or Cassius Winston I don't have listed, not because I think they're undraftable or a worse prospect than some 2nd round sleeper I've listed but because they seem pretty likely to be chosen in the mid-late first round and I'd rather let a team that values them as such trade up for them than pick them myself.

I think people have been beating the drum about bigs being worthless for too long, and absent a Warriors superteam the pendulum is starting to swing back. Yes, a big who can be exploited in the pick-and-roll is going to have a hard time sticking on the court, but in general a defense is only as strong as its weakest link and good teams will exploit that in the playoffs regardless of what position that player happens to play. There are many guards in this class I'd also consider one-position defenders, and since bigs can still at least contest shots with their length in a mismatch and provide much more rim protection and rebounding, the guard prospect is going to have to be pretty special on offense to make up for that. The common refrain with centers is that you can find a pretty good one for cheap, which I'd say for point guards as well, plus once you get deeper into the playoffs you're likely going to be against an all-NBA (or at least all-defensive team) level big who will put the mid-level exception guy at a disadvantage that would need a large edge in perimeter talent to overcome.

Obviously in the best case scenario you'd have a wing-sized player who can score on all levels and defend all over the court, but there aren't many in this draft and it seems easy to go wrong by trying to assume there is.

1st tier

James Wiseman: The most succinct way I could put it is that he's going to be a high-level rim protector who's better offensively than his most common comparisons because he can actually make a shot outside of dunk/layup range and runs the floor very well. The biggest knock on him seems to be the assumption that he's going to be delusional about what he's capable of on offense and will want to handle the ball and post up. From the high school all-star games and his time at Memphis, basically all of his action over the last two years, he was dominant and that hasn't been the case at all. I think whatever perceived issues from before were largely due to being in a high school class where a lot of the top players were bigs who were older and more physically developed (if you're a tall, skinny 16/17 year-old against some 260 pounder, yeah you're going to be forced farther from the basket), and I think being at Memphis with a coaching staff with lots of NBA experience helped to drive home that he can still receive max contracts and plenty of accolades by playing to his strengths.

LaMelo Ball: I'd rather be drafting him and trading the pick or trying to sign him after his first contract than eating the first few years where he learns how to play real basketball, but yeah he can really pass and dribble at his size. If you were to say he has the highest upside in the draft, I wouldn't argue much but I'd wonder about how that stacks up to the league at large. If hitting on him means he's a top 20ish player rather than a top 5-10, that's great but I'd rather it be another team paying him a max and dealing with whatever off-court stuff. Especially in this draft where you can trade down for two other tall point guards with pretty similar strengths/weaknesses.

Killian Hayes: Of the potential lead guards in this tier, he's the strongest and probably the best bet at becoming a high-end off-the-dribble shooter between his mechanics and free throw touch. He has enough craftiness at such a young age that improvements to his athleticism or jumper will go a long way, but without either he'll be unremarkable.

Anthony Edwards: I'm trying to not shake things up too much from the initial big board I posted in January given the lack of actual games since then, but the more Edwards played the more I felt like I'd just been catching him on good days in the past and consistency will be a major issue (even that Michigan State game could be described as him going off in the 2nd half in a loss when his team was down 20+ points in the first). Whether that's due to motor, lack of basketball IQ, or what is less relevant than the idea that a player like that will play just well enough to get a big contract offer from desperate teams and to win some games that might keep a bad team from drafting high enough to get a real franchise player.

Tyrese Haliburton: There are a lot of prospects we make excuses for due to the situation they're in, and Haliburton still put up outstanding numbers despite being forced into a role that isn't his game. He would've averaged like 10 assists per game and been considered the best passer to come through the college game in the last decade or so if his teammates didn't suck, and of course that would've opened up more space for him to create his own offense as well. He's on LaMelo's level as a passer and is certainly going to come in as a better defender. Even if his release prevents him from being able to hit a bunch of threes off the dribble, it's not detrimental to the point of being like Lonzo's or Ben Simmons's, plus Haliburton can hit his set shot from deep enough to space the floor.

Aleksej Pokusevski: If he's the best player in this class 7 years from now I wouldn't be too surprised. He's the best passer at his height since Jokic, and while they're certainly not the same player I have the feeling people could similarly be looking back on this draft and saying that the guy who had all-around statistical production that really jumped off the page but just didn't look the part in terms of body type obviously should've gone much higher. Even if you think he's a project who won't be physically ready to compete in the NBA, first-year production will matter even less than before since rookies have a month between being drafted and embarking on a compressed regular season in which no fans will be at the games watching them even if they do happen to suck! In terms of what position he'll play or defend, it's not super important to me - the best defenses this past regular season were the best at protecting the rim, and they were able to do so by playing lineups that featured a traditional rim protecting center and then got some bonus center-level rim protection from a player who could still credibly defend on the perimeter.

Given that he's likely going to be picked the lowest of this group and probably not in the top 10, it's kind of a cop-out to just have him here in this top tier and say it'd be great to trade down for him rather than saying he's top 3 or #1, but simply in terms of upside his is probably the highest.

Devin Vassell: He's the best team defender in the draft and can hit threes. I think he has more potential off the bounce than someone like Danny Green who he's compared to often. He's old enough to be a freshman, and if you were to imagine a one-and-done player coming to a school that's not a traditional powerhouse and being his team's leading scorer and defender while leading it to the ACC championship, that's probably not a player you'd say has limited upside.

[nolang1]

2nd tier (mid-late lottery, solid starter median outcome)

----------------------

Onyeka Okongwu: Not quite that high on his upside on offense especially, even though I do give him a decent chance at being able to shoot threes eventually. I don't like to look too closely at stats versus top 100 or 50 rated opponents because that can make the sample sizes really small, but I do like to look at non-conference vs. conference because regardless of the talent level, the conference opponents are going to have much more of a scouting report against the best freshmen than whoever's playing them at the beginning of the season. Per 40 minutes in non-conference Okongwu averaged 25 points, 12.7 rebounds (4.5 offensive), 1.9 steals, and 4.5 blocks; he really beasted inside, especially on the offensive glass, against teams like Florida A&M, Portland, Pepperdine, Long Beach State, and Harvard that were no match for USC's size and had their best post defender on his teammate Rakocevic.

Isaac Okoro: The comparison I keep wanting to make with him to put him in the top tier is Marcus Smart but playing up a position or two (so more driving and finishing with less playmaking and shooting), but Smart as a prospect tripled him up in steals and even outrebounded him. I was too high on DeAndre Hunter last year and my main takeaway from that is no matter how good and versatile you look defending at the college level, you probably need a lot of defensive playmaking to spare to be expected to carry that impact over to the NBA.

Deni Avdija: Nice player, but the Saric comparison rings true to me because their playmaking skills are very good for their size but not so good that you'd want them running the offense for a good team; Saric had some nice point forward moments his rookie year on a Sixers team that was completely lacking in playmaking guards and has since settled in as more of a role player. Would gladly trade down from the top 6 or so if there's a team looking at him in that range because I don't think the upside is worth it.

Cole Anthony: I'm loathe to drop him too far from where he was before the season when his team sucked and he was playing through a torn meniscus. Even though he's old for a freshman, he still looked good in the past playing for his age group in FIBA. These attitude concerns or whatever are reminiscent of when people thought it was a red flag that Jaylen Brown was interested in stuff outside of basketball.

Jahmi'us Ramsey: Ramsey is one of the youngest players in the draft, just 2 months older than Anthony Edwards. If he'd been part of the 2020 high school class and beat up on some younger competition before reclassifying, he would've been a higher ranked recruit and there'd probably be some debate as to who should be taken higher given the seasons they just had. Texas Tech's super slow pace and lack of offensive firepower (only two players who played any kind of minutes on the national runner-up the year before returned) obscured some of his shot creation upside (28.3 points, 4.2 assists, and 4.1 turnovers per 100 possessions on .546 TS% compared to Edwards's 32.2, 4.8, and 4.8 on .520 TS%).

Tyrese Maxey: I don't have anything too unique to say about him, I liked him in EYBL play and he could get the post-Kentucky bump.

Patrick Williams: I have a hard time jumping on the bandwagon of guys who rise based on workouts, especially when he seems to kind of be rising by default as one of the only long, athletic combo forward types. I think he's pretty similar to Marvin Williams in more than just surname.

Obi Toppin: Would gladly trade out of the top 10 to a team that wants him and values him that highly. Marvin Bagley is younger than him and had a better college season 2 years ago playing against better competition.

Kira Lewis: People talk about how prospects will look better in NBA spacing to the point of cliche, so for that to hold any weight it has to go the other way sometimes where a prospect who already played in an uptempo system with lots of three-pointers and still didn't finish very well at the rim might not have quite as much to unearth. His combination of speed, shooting, and productivity for a player who was the age of the average freshman is enough for me to put him a notch above the other scoring point guards like Winston, Riller, Flynn, Dotson etc.

Tyler Bey: On the right team he can be all over the place on defense and then manufacture enough offense on transition, open threes, posting up smaller players, and offensive rebounds to not be a liability there.
-----------------
3rd tier (definite 1st rounders, solid rotation player/borderline starter median outcome)

Spoiler:

Xavier Tillman

Aaron Nesmith

Paul Reed

RJ Hampton

Josh Green

Mason Jones

Saddiq Bey

Precious Achiuwa

Tillman and Jones are probably the two where I'm farthest from consensus here. Tillman seems to be one of the best bets to stick around and be a rotation player, which is a win at this point in a draft. Mason Jones made 75% of his shots around the rim and drew the most fouls in Division 1. In the space of about 4 years he went from weighing 260 pounds and not playing basketball to the SEC player of the year, so I think he's got some real upside to be a potent bench scorer or maybe more as he continues to improve his body and refine his craft. I'm back and forth on having Nesmith a tier higher as obviously I don't know that much about the injury and more games would've helped to determine if he's really a special shooter or just a very good one.

----------
4th tier (late 1st-undrafted fliers on potential rotation players or lottery tickets with higher upside

Spoiler:

Markus Howard: 46.9 points per 100 possessions should almost be enough said. There are a lot of point guards who can shoot and play pick-and-roll who are mocked in the mid-late 1st, but I'd rather trade down and bet on Howard's elite three-point shot. Lots of teams bring Enes Kanter or Boban type of players off the bench with the idea they can produce on offense without being victimized too much defensively - that won't work if they have to go against a Trae Young-level three-point shooter off the dribble (who's a worse passer but can't possibly be worse as a defender). Howard is just as good spotting up and running off of screens, and I think he can be a real offensive weapon alongside a bigger playmaker too. Super low-maintenance, high-character player as well; the kind of person who can move across the country and start college at age 17 is the kind of person I'd trust to stay ready and work to get the most out of his talent during a pandemic.

Naji Marshall
Lamine Diane: Both players who are a shot away from being those versatile, athletic two-way wings we all know and love and have more to offer in terms of defense and efficiency when they aren't going to be ask to carry their teams on the offensive end. If Solomon Hill can stick around in the league, these guys have more upside if they can become passable from three.

Reggie Perry: MVP of the U19 World Championships on a USA team that had Haliburton, Lewis, and several top 2021 draft prospects. I trust him on the perimeter offensively and defensively a little more than someone like Oturu.

Udoka Azuibuike: will only work in certain matchups, but can come in and punish teams on the glass and as a lob finisher. It's like Boban where if that swings a couple games a year you probably wouldn't have won otherwise, that has real value.

Tre Jones:
Trent Forrest: Both defensive-minded potential backup point guards who could be really interesting if their shot comes around. Forrest is a big late 2nd/undrafted sleeper who's probably the most athletic point guard in the draft, gets rave reviews about his intangibles, and has improved each year in the process of graduating as FSU's winningest player.

Zeke Nnaji: Probably nothing too special, but I like him more than I liked Jalen Smith coming off their respective freshman seasons and if some team in the mid teens wanted Smith I'd gladly trade down into the 2nd and take Nnaji if I were looking for a shooting 5 with some athleticism.

Killian Tillie: lottery type of talent if he can stay healthy. Probably won't but worth a shot at some point.

Paul Eboua: Not the kind of playmaker that Marshall or Diane are, but he's probably one of the top 5 most physically gifted players in the draft and knows what role he's going to have to play to make it in the league. Luc Mbah a Moute had a 10+ year career because teams are always gonna need someone to throw at these big wings.

Desmond Bane

Leandro Bolmaro

Sam Merrill: he's gonna come in and be able to shoot and make plays off the dribble, and his defense isn't horrible.

Yoeli Childs: somewhat similar to Howard in terms of being a super productive four-year player who's a good bet to maximize his talent. Seems to be a late bloomer and has improved his outside shot year after year.

Jaden McDaniels

Jordan Nwora

[nolang1]

Haven't put too much thought into these yet but want to have a baseline so I don't go moving anyone too far up based on a big March Madness run.

Cade Cunningham
-------------------------
Jonathan Kuminga
Evan Mobley
Jalen Green
Jalen Suggs
----------------------
Franz Wagner
Alperen Sengun
Scottie Barnes
Jaden Springer
Keon Johnson
James Bouknight
Yoan Makoundo
---------------------
Corey Kispert
Josh Giddey
Usman Garuba
Daishen Nix
Aaron Henry
Ayo Dosunmu
-----------------
Jay Huff
Miles McBride
Ziaire Williams
Raiquan Gray
Trendon Watford
Jared Butler
Chris Duarte
Keegan Murray
Jabari Walker
Sharife Cooper
Brandon Boston
Isaiah Jackson
Josh Christopher
EJ Liddell
Santi Aldama
Cam Thomas
Isaiah Todd
Neemias Queta
Ibou Badji
Justin Champagnie

[nolang1]

Cunningham

I don't think he's going to be some MVP/#1 on a championship team type of guy, but I can't say that about the other players either and Cunningham is the type of player who can fit alongside other good players to the point that if I had to draft someone #1, I'd draft him regardless of positional need. He's a smart player who turned a weakness into a strength from high school to college, and if he ends up as 'just' a Middleton type, that's fine enough for the #1 pick in my eyes (although as is the case with most years, there were probably some lucrative trade down offers I would've taken over simply choosing him #1). He can shoot, pass, and defend, and if he ends up not being quick enough to blow by people, I think he's got a good frame for his age and will be able to find mismatches he can take into the post.
--------
Mobley
Green
Kuminga
Barnes
Suggs
Sengun
Wagner

I think all of these guys have top ~40 potential. I'd put Mobley and Green #2 and #3 right now if I had to (and wouldn't be totally surprised if either ended up the best player in the class), but I guess you can count me as low relative to consensus on them (plus Suggs) or high on the other guys that I'd be fine trading down.

I just think that with the proliferation of wings and bigs teams can run offense through, if you're 6'4 or below you need to be an absolute world-class shooter to be more than a back-end all-star type of player (Jrue Holiday, who was the #3 option on a championship team just because Giannis had an all-time great series (and you can add in whatever you want about injuries), as the upside comp for Suggs makes me fine with that too since Holiday's career would be viewed differently if he were like the #2 pick. Mobley with his age, frame, and lack of a definitive skill on offense isn't a surefire superstar to me either. I was higher on Barnes before the season, but then all the pre-draft stuff on him pulled me back in. Sengun is just by far the #1 guy from numbers and clearly knows how to play; sure there's some discount due to him being a big who's not super long and athletic, but he's in the Pokusevski territory where I could have him at like #3 but there's no need to because nobody's going to draft him until much later.

--------
Springer
Giddey
Moody
Garuba
K. Johnson
Bouknight
Murphy
Hyland

Basically the interchangeable back half of the lottery to me. Springer has that -1 year age bonus going for him, plus it seems like he was hobbled a bit in college. Murphy and Hyland could be back a tier but seem to be the most likely volume 3 shooters who aren't total nothings on defense (cough Cam Thomas).
--------
Duarte
Mitchell
Kispert
A. Henry
Huff
Mann
Butler
McBride
Nix
J. Johnson
Christopher
Jackson
Aldama
Jones
Thomas
Queta
Todd
Cooper
Boston
Z. Williams
Gray
Champagnie

Generally ordered with some older, possible immediate rotation players at top and younger projects at the bottom. Players I'd consider in the late first or at any point in the 2nd if they're still available. I'd love to be higher on much Cooper if he didn't shoot such a set shot.