Luka Doncic
Spoiler:
His current edge in skill and overall impact over everyone else in the draft is too much to pass up. I don't think he's that bad athletically for his age either and has the frame and skill level where he'll be able to take a lot of the players he can't drive around into the post a la Joe Johnson. His outside shot is fine in my eyes; Trae Young's percentages also took a nosedive over the course of the season and Doncic has played way more minutes against tougher competition. The only thing keeping me from putting him in his own tier at the top is that the two players after him have received maybe 1% as much legitimate coaching as he has to this point.
Marvin Bagley
Spoiler:
He defies archetypes by being an elite rebounder and finisher who has quickness and a solid foundation of offensive skill. If he'd been the #59 recruit in the country everyone would've been raving about his highlights and how he came out of nowhere to be so productive despite being so raw, but since he was #1 in his class you mostly get people complaining about how he isn't Anthony Davis. Gets a lot of flak for being a difficult type of player to build around, but I'm of the opinion that if your team was bad enough to be trying to lose games for half the season, maybe trying to completely retool around a high lottery talent isn't the worst idea in the world.
DeAndre Ayton
Spoiler:
Like Bagley he looked a step slow on help defense at times, which is not altogether surprising considering their age and how badly their teams' perimeter defenders would routinely get beaten off the dribble. The amount of forgiveness Ben Simmons received for the occasional lapse in intensity while he was forced to play in the NCAA for a season hasn't been extended to Ayton, which seems strange to me given how much of a circus it was at Arizona. For where he played on defense (and even offense as he wasn't just planted on the low block) his rebounding numbers were phenomenal; it can be easy to forget that rebounding is an important component of defense due to how drastically some players can inflate their numbers by stealing uncontested boards from their teammates, but rebound percentage is one of the four factors for a reason.
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Jaren Jackson
Spoiler:
I'm low on his offensive game as the release on his shot means even NBA guards and wings can contest him on a pick-and-pop, and potential floor spacing is going to be his main contribution on that end for the first few years of his career at least. But he's definitely got the highest defensive upside in the draft and is a #1-worthy prospect in a lot of years.
Mikal Bridges
Spoiler:
I don't put much stock into the age concerns as he had an 11.5 BPM as a freshman; if people can get behind Jontay Porter as a lottery pick these days it's not like Bridges came out of nowhere. As it is, he's the best team defender in the draft, an excellent transition player, and much closer to someone like Kevin Huerter in shooting ability than Wes Johnson or whichever other fungible wing people compare him to. He seems a solid bet to be at least a +2.5 RPM player, and I think his perceived lack of upside is overstated as he's expanded his game every year while still operating within the constraints of an extremely successful team.
Trae Young
Spoiler:
Kind of in the middle on Young. If he's more like Damian Lillard than Curry as a shooter, that's just a borderline All-Star player when you factor in Young's defense.
Mo Bamba
Spoiler:
If he were a year younger I'd consider him for the number one pick. I already knew he had a freakishly long wingspan and was media-savvy, so my opinion of him hasn't changed much since the season ended.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Spoiler:
Would have him higher but think there's a decent chance he's just congenitally skinny and will always be lacking some element of power and explosiveness to his game. Could be Tony Parker-esque on offense with more passing and defensive versatility.
Michael Porter Jr.
Spoiler:
I've been saying for the last year or so he was overrated as a potential #1 prospect and his path to becoming a franchise player was heavily dependent being a 3-point sniper who could hit 40-plus percent on high volume. The 9th pick is about where my concerns of missing out on this potential franchise player are balanced out by my concerns that his sitting out a year prevented him from being exposed as a mid-range gunner. Even if he's closer to the latter, he's at least the kind of player where the 'potential #1 option' label will stick with him for long enough that you can find teams who would be willing to trade for him.
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Troy Brown
Spoiler:
He really stood out to me 2 summers ago at the U17 Worlds. He's young enough that him looking like a better athlete in the NBA won't be that surprising, and his shot seems to be much improved in workouts.
Collin Sexton
Spoiler:
Betting on his intelligence, competitiveness, and his outlier free-throw rate; a little bit of shooting improvement will go a long way with him. There's a steep learning curve to playing point guard and there aren't too many good ones under the age of 25 or so right now.
Miles Bridges
Spoiler:
Even when he was high school his athleticism has never seemed as functional as his highlights indicated. But he's a good shooter for the amount of athleticism he has, and this is the point of the draft where getting someone who has a solid 10+ year career as a starter is a good outcome.
Zhaire Smith
Spoiler:
Really like his mentality and he seems to have been working hard on his shot, but it's a big gap in skill between playing power forward in college and playing on the wing in the NBA. Don't think he has extremely high upside in terms of creating offense but if he's a mini Andre Roberson who is able to hit a wide-open corner three that's a good pick for this range.
Wendell Carter
Spoiler:
Not as switchable as the other bigs ranked higher and is more of a B+ at a few things than particularly outstanding in one area. If I'm a team that has to worry about stopping a player like Towns or Embiid in a future playoff series, I'd rather invest in perimeter players and aggressively double-team the bigs than try to play them conventionally with someone like Carter.
Robert Williams
Dzanan Musa
Spoiler:
Microwave scorer who can potentially do more as his handle, passing, and first step are underrated for someone his size. I feel his athleticism can improve as he gets into an NBA program.
Elie Okobo
Jaylen Brunson
Spoiler:
It feels like the main argument against him is "you can find guys like Fred VanVleet as undrafted free agents." Well, there are obviously a lot of teams that would rather have VanVleet now than whoever they drafted in the first round.
Keita Bates-Diop
Kevin Knox
Spoiler:
Seems low to have him here, but I don't think there's too much of a drop-off from 10 to 20 in this draft and can certainly see the case for him being the highest upside guy in that range. He's moving up in workouts, but I was never that concerned about his ability to look good in that kind of setting.
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Jarred Vanderbilt
DeAnthony Melton
Kevin Huerter
Jevon Carter
Gary Clark
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Honorable mention:
Landry Shamet
Rawle Alkins
Josh Okogie
Lonnie Walker
Omari Spellman
Jacob Evans
Isaac Bonga
Shake Milton
Mitchell Robinson
Aaron Holiday
Hamidou Diallo
Rodions Kurucs
Kostas Antetokounmpo
Issuf Sanon
[/spoiler]