[updated 7/28/21] 2021 Mock Draft (1-60)

[babyjax13]

Thoughts and prayers with the family and friends of Terrence Clarke.
Please note that brackets aren't in any way 1:1 comps, especially the further down you get, just players that aesthetically these guys resemble a bit, or who have some skills which - if these players reach their maximal outcomes - might look similarish.

Bold = good chance to outperform draft position
Red = I have concerns
(1) Detroit: Cade Cunningham [shades of Paul Pierce (scoring), Lonzo Ball (playmaking)] (range: 1)
(2) Houston: Jalen Green [shades of Alec Burks, Eddie Jones, Vernon Maxwell, Michael Thompson] (range: 2-3)
(3) Cleveland: Evan Mobley [shades of Pau Gasol, AD] (range: 2-3)
(4) Toronto: Jalen Suggs [shades of Deron Williams, Jamal Murray, Damian Lillard] (range: 4-5)
(5) Orlando: Scottie Barnes [shades of Draymond Green, Pascal Siakam, Andrei Kirilenko] (range: 4-10)
(6) Oklahoma City: Jonathen Kuminga [shades of Miles Bridges, TJ Warren, OG Anunoby] (range: 3-7)
(7) Golden State (Minnesota): Moses Moody [shades of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Wesley Matthews] (range: 6-14)
(8) Orlando (Chicago): James Bouknight [shades of Zach LaVine, sorry...going to say it...with a dash of Kobe] (range: 5-14)
(9) Sacramento: Franz Wagner [shades of Danilo Gallinari, Cam Johnson] (range: 6-15)
(10) Memphis (New Orleans): Alperen Sengun [shades of Domantas Sabonis, Jusuf Nurkic, David West] (range: 5-14)
(11) Charlotte: Keon Johnson [shades of Gary Harris (D), Early career Alec Burks (O)] (range: 4-12)
(12) San Antonio: Jalen Johnson [shades of Lamar Odom, Josh Smith, thin/young Boris Diaw] (range: 5-15)
(13) Indiana: Jaden Springer [shades of young George Hill, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander] (range: 12-24)
(14) Golden State: Davion Mitchell [shades of Ty Lawson (O), Kemba Walker (O), less vertically explosive Eric Bledsoe (D)] (range: 10-20)
(15) Washington: Corey Kispert [shades of Bojan Bogdanovic] (range: 10-17)
(16) Oklahoma City (Boston): Josh Giddey [shades of Kyle Anderson, Joe Ingles] (range: 8-18)
(17) New Orleans (Memphis): Jared Butler [shades of older George Hill] (range: 16-26)
(18) Oklahoma City (Miami): Ziaire Williams [shades of Otto Porter Jr., Wes Johnson] (range: 12-21)
(19) New York: Tre Mann [shades of Darius Garland, Goran Dragic]
(20) Atlanta: Ayo Dosunmu [shades of Donte DiVencenzo, Josh Richardson, Jrue Holiday] (range: 18-35)
(21) New York (Dallas): Cameron Thomas [shades of Buddy Hield, Jordan Clarkson]
(22) LA Lakers: Isaiah Jackson [shades of Chris Boucher before this season]
(23) Houston (Portland): Usman Garuba [shades of Bam Adebayo and Draymond Green on defense]
(24) Houston (Milwaukee): Josh Primo [shades of Rip Hamilton, college Devin Booker] (range: 11-24)
(25) LA Clippers: Chris Duarte [shades of Danny Green, Klay Thompson]
(26) Denver: Kai Jones [shades of Christian Wood, John Collins] (range: 10-24)
(27) Brooklyn: Trey Murphy III [shades of Marvin Williams]
(28) Philadelphia: Josh Cristopher [shades of Tyreke Evans, Kevin Porter Jr.]
(29) Phoenix Suns: Sharife Cooper [shades of Ty Lawson, Chris Paul]
(30) Utah Jazz: Jason Preston

(31) Milwaukee (Houston): Nah'shon Hyland [shades of Jordan Clarkson, Immanuel Quickley]
(32) New York (Detroit): BJ Boston [shades of Troy Brown Jr., Brandon Ingram]
(33) Orlando: JT Thor [shades of Jonathan Isaac, Chris Boucher]
(34) Oklahoma City: Isaiah Todd [shades of Davis Bertans, Trey Lyles]
(35) New Orleans (Cleveland): Quintin Grimes
(36) Oklahoma City (Minnesota): Jericho Simms
(37) Detroit (Toronto): Vrenz Bleijenbergh [shades of Hedo Turkoglu, Isaac Bonga]
(38) Chicago (New Orleans): Miles McBride
(39) Sacramento: Filip Petrusev
(40) New Orleans (Chicago): Day'Ron Sharpe
(41) San Antonio: Neemias Queta
(42) Detroit (New Orleans): Greg Brown [shades of Jerami Grant, Kyle Kuzma]
(43) New Orleans (Washington): Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
(44) Brooklyn (Indiana): Joel Ayayi
(45) Boston: Joe Weiskamp
(46) Toronto (Memphis): Herb Jones
(47) Toronto (Washington): Scottie Lewis
(48) Atlanta (Miami): Daishin Nix [shades of Andre Miller]
(49) Brooklyn (Atlanta): Justin Champaigne
(50) Philadelphia (New York): Rokas Jokubaitis
(51) Memphis (Portland): Kessler Edwards
(52) Detroit (LA Lakers): Isaiah Livers
(53) New Orleans (Dallas): EJ Onu
(54) Indiana (Milwaukee): McKinley Wright
(55) Oklahoma City (Denver): Juhann Begarin
(56) Charlotte (LA Clippers): David Johnson
(57) Charlotte (Brooklyn): Charles Bassey
(58) New York (Philadelphia): Trendon Watford
(59) Brooklyn (Phoenix): Luka Garza [shades of Enes Kanter (O + D), Nikola Vucevic (O)]
(60) Indiana (Utah): Delano Banton

2022: Kadary Richmond, Andre Curbelo, Kai Sotto, Princepal Singh, Justin Powell [hints of Kevin Huerter, Tyrese Haliburton], Makur Maker, Romeo Weems, Jalen Wilson, Bennedict Mathurin, Trayce Jackson Davis [hints of Brandon Clarke, Carlos Boozer, Montrezl Harrell] , Ron Harper Jr. [shades of Georges Niang, mid/late career Carmelo Anthony], Caleb Love, Ochai Agbaji, Marcus Bagley, Taevion Kinsey, Orlando Robinson, Johnny Juzang, Keyontae Johnson* [shades of PJ Tucker, Miles Bridges], Mojave King, Nikoz Chougkaz, Malcolm Cazalon, Ariel Hukporti, Juhann Begarin, Kofi Cockburn, Julian Champaigne, Terrence Shannon Jr., Roko Prkacin [shades of Thad Young (game), Carl Landry (attitude)], Zsombor Maronka, Ibou Dianko Badji, Makur Maker, Max Abmas, Carlos Alocen

UDFA: Sandro Mamukaleshvili [hints of Aron Baynes, Greg Monroe], Chris Smith, Yves Pons, DJ Steward, RJ Nembhard, John Petty, Aaron Henry, David Duke, Oscar Da Silva [shades of Maxi Kleiber, Dario Saric], Moses Wright, Jay Huff, Balsa Koprivica, Matthew Hurt, Santi Aldema, MJ Walker, Amar Sylla, Javonte Smart, Duane Washington

*obvious health concerns, if he gets cleared, he should be a near lottery pick

[babyjax13]

Big Board (7/23) [categories = 'upside', higher up = more confident they can reach it, treat ~bottom half in each category as more likely to be the category below]

The Transcendent All-NBA/MVP caliber palyer
0. No one

The franchise centerpiece
1. Cade Cunningham
2. Evan Mobley

The 'robin'
3. Jalen Suggs
4. Jalen Green
5. Jonathan Kuminga
6. Keon Johnson
7. Scottie Barnes

Almost robin
8. Jalen Johnson
9. Alperin Sengun
10. Moses Moody
11. Ayo Dosunmu
12. James Bouknight
13. Ziaire Williams

Highly valued starter
14. Davion Mitchell
15. Josh Primo
16. Jaden Springer
17. Franz Wagner
18. Corey Kispert
19. Josh Giddey
20. Sharife Cooper
21. Cameron Thomas

Low-tier Starter/Great Bench player
22. Jason Preston
23. Usman Garuba
24. Jared Butler
25. Chris Duarte
26. Trey Murphy
27. Josh Cristopher
28. BJ Boston
29. Bones Hyland
30. Tre Mann

Key rotation player (i.e. 8th-10th man)
31. Quintin Grimes
32. Miles McBride
33. Jeremiah Robinson Earl
34. Isaiah Jackson
35. Vrenz Bleijenbergh
36. Jericho Simms
37. Herb Jones
38. Joel Ayayi
39. Daishin Nix
40. Filip Petrusev
41. Isaiah Todd
42. Day'Ron Sharpe
43. Kai Jones
44. Greg Brown

Replacement level to just above
45. Joe Weiskamp
46. McKinley Wright
47. David Johnson
48. Delano Banton
48. Neemias Queta
50. Scottie Lewis
51. Justin Champaigne
52. Isaiah Livers
53. Aaron Henry
54. Charles Bassey

End of the Bench
55. Kessler Edwards
56. MJ Walker
57. JaVonte' Smart
58. Trendon Watford
59. Moses Wright
60. Chris Smith
61. Sandro Mamukaleshvili
62. Aaron Wiggins

Summerleague MVP
63. Luka Garza (nba level offense but some of the worst defense I have EVER seen)
64. EJ Onu
65. John Petty
66. Duane Washington
67. Mac McClung
68. Yves Pons
69. Santi Aldema

Summerleague Invite
70. David Duke
71. Balsa Kapricova
72. Jay Huff
73. Oscar Da Silva
74. Matthew Hurt
75. DJ Steward
76. RJ Nembhard
77. Amar Sylla

The mysteries
Rokas Jokubaitis
Juhann Begarin

[babyjax13]

I'm so impressed with the depth of this draft the more I watch. I feel like there are about 30 players who if you told me they went any order from 20-50 I would believe you.

[babyjax13]

I tried a new thing with the "draft range" so I am going to see how I did here (green if within the range I predicted, or at the spot I predicted; red for wrong responses):

(1) Detroit: Cade Cunningham (range: 1)
(2) Houston: Jalen Green (range: 2-3)
(3) Cleveland: Evan Mobley (range: 2-3)
(4) Toronto: Jalen Suggs (range: 4-5)
(5) Orlando: Scottie Barnes (range: 4-10)
(6) Oklahoma City: Jonathen Kuminga (range: 3-7)
(7) Golden State (Minnesota): Moses Moody (range: 6-14)
(8) Orlando (Chicago): James Bouknight (range: 5-14)
(9) Sacramento: Franz Wagner (range: 6-15)
(10) Memphis (New Orleans): Alperen Sengun (range: 5-14)
(11) Charlotte: Keon Johnson (range: 4-12)
(12) San Antonio: Jalen Johnson (range: 5-15)
(13) Indiana: Jaden Springer (range: 12-24)
(14) Golden State: Davion Mitchell (range: 10-20)
(15) Washington: Corey Kispert (range: 10-17)
(16) Oklahoma City (Boston): Josh Giddey (range: 8-18)
(17) New Orleans (Memphis): Jared Butler (range: 16-26)
(18) Oklahoma City (Miami): Ziaire Williams (range: 12-21)
(19) New York: Tre Mann
(20) Atlanta: Ayo Dosunmu (range: 18-35)
(21) New York (Dallas): Cameron Thomas
(22) LA Lakers: Isaiah Jackson
(23) Houston (Portland): Usman Garuba
(24) Houston (Milwaukee): Josh Primo (range: 11-24)
(25) LA Clippers: Chris Duarte
(26) Denver: Kai Jones (range: 10-24)
(27) Brooklyn: Trey Murphy III
(28) Philadelphia: Josh Cristopher
(29) Phoenix Suns: Sharife Cooper
(30) Utah Jazz: Jason Preston

[babyjax13]

For the second round I am just going to highlight players red that DID NOT get drafted to "grade" myself:

(31) Milwaukee (Houston): Nah'shon Hyland [shades of Jordan Clarkson, Immanuel Quickley]
(32) New York (Detroit): BJ Boston [shades of Troy Brown Jr., Brandon Ingram]
(33) Orlando: JT Thor [shades of Jonathan Isaac, Chris Boucher]
(34) Oklahoma City: Isaiah Todd [shades of Davis Bertans, Trey Lyles]
(35) New Orleans (Cleveland): Quintin Grimes
(36) Oklahoma City (Minnesota): Jericho Simms
(37) Detroit (Toronto): Vrenz Bleijenbergh [shades of Hedo Turkoglu, Isaac Bonga]
(38) Chicago (New Orleans): Miles McBride
(39) Sacramento: Filip Petrusev
(40) New Orleans (Chicago): Day'Ron Sharpe
(41) San Antonio: Neemias Queta
(42) Detroit (New Orleans): Greg Brown [shades of Jerami Grant, Kyle Kuzma]
(43) New Orleans (Washington): Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
(44) Brooklyn (Indiana): Joel Ayayi
(45) Boston: Joe Weiskamp
(46) Toronto (Memphis): Herb Jones
(47) Toronto (Washington): Scottie Lewis
(48) Atlanta (Miami): Daishin Nix [shades of Andre Miller]
(49) Brooklyn (Atlanta): Justin Champaigne
(50) Philadelphia (New York): Rokas Jokubaitis
(51) Memphis (Portland): Kessler Edwards
(52) Detroit (LA Lakers): Isaiah Livers
(53) New Orleans (Dallas): EJ Onu
(54) Indiana (Milwaukee): McKinley Wright
(55) Oklahoma City (Denver): Juhann Begarin
(56) Charlotte (LA Clippers): David Johnson
(57) Charlotte (Brooklyn): Charles Bassey
(58) New York (Philadelphia): Trendon Watford
(59) Brooklyn (Phoenix): Luka Garza [shades of Enes Kanter (O + D), Nikola Vucevic (O)]
(60) Indiana (Utah): Delano Banton

Bonus: Santi Aldama

[babyjax13]

So, my grade for myself:

First round:
14/23 = 61% ... Going to give myself a C- here. Most of the players I gave ranges to who were drafted just outside those ranges were just barely out, I realize that some of them had wide ranges, but I at least had a good hunch about Primo possibly going much higher than people expect, and I don't think that was a bad decision.

Second Round:
7/30 players in my second round, and 8/60 players overall did not get drafted. I always feel like the second round, including who will/won't get drafted is such a crapshoot...so...

52/60 = 88%, B+

[babyjax13]

Big Board (7/23) [categories = 'upside', higher up = more confident they can reach it, treat ~bottom half in each category as more likely to be the category below]

The Transcendent All-NBA/MVP caliber palyer
0. No one

The franchise centerpiece
1. Cade Cunningham
2. Evan Mobley

The 'robin'
3. Jalen Suggs
4. Jalen Green
5. Jonathan Kuminga
6. Keon Johnson Too early to tell, but I think he belongs quite a bit lower
7. Scottie Barnes

Almost robin
8. Jalen Johnson Too early to tell, but I think he's a tier lower
9. Alperin Sengun
10. Moses Moody Too early to tell, but I think he's a tier lower
11. Ayo Dosunmu
12. James Bouknight Too early to tell, but I think he's a tier lower
13. Ziaire Williams Too early to tell, but I think he's a tier lower

Highly valued starter
14. Davion Mitchell
15. Josh Primo
16. Jaden Springer
17. Franz Wagner Should be a tier higher, if not two
18. Corey Kispert
19. Josh Giddey Should be a tier higher, if not two
20. Sharife Cooper
21. Cameron Thomas

Low-tier Starter/Great Bench player
22. Jason Preston
23. Usman Garuba
24. Jared Butler
25. Chris Duarte Should be a tier higher
26. Trey Murphy
27. Josh Cristopher
28. BJ Boston Tempted to say he should be a tier higher
29. Bones Hyland
30. Tre Mann

Key rotation player (i.e. 8th-10th man)
31. Quintin Grimes
32. Miles McBride
33. Jeremiah Robinson Earl
34. Isaiah Jackson
35. Vrenz Bleijenbergh
36. Jericho Simms
37. Herb Jones Should be two tiers higher
38. Joel Ayayi
39. Daishin Nix
40. Filip Petrusev
41. Isaiah Todd
42. Day'Ron Sharpe
43. Kai Jones
44. Greg Brown

Replacement level to just above
45. Joe Weiskamp
46. McKinley Wright
47. David Johnson
48. Delano Banton Should be a tier higher, if not two
48. Neemias Queta
50. Scottie Lewis
51. Justin Champaigne
52. Isaiah Livers
53. Aaron Henry
54. Charles Bassey

End of the Bench
55. Kessler Edwards
56. MJ Walker
57. JaVonte' Smart
58. Trendon Watford
59. Moses Wright
60. Chris Smith
61. Sandro Mamukaleshvili
62. Aaron Wiggins

Summerleague MVP
63. Luka Garza (nba level offense but some of the worst defense I have EVER seen)
64. EJ Onu
65. John Petty
66. Duane Washington Two tiers higher?
67. Mac McClung a tier higher, possibly two
68. Yves Pons
69. Santi Aldema Two tiers higher?

Summerleague Invite
70. David Duke
71. Balsa Kapricova
72. Jay Huff
73. Oscar Da Silva
74. Matthew Hurt
75. DJ Steward
76. RJ Nembhard
77. Amar Sylla

The mysteries
Rokas Jokubaitis
Juhann Begarin

Thought I'd go through this on how I did. Red if I think they are in the wrong tier so far. Initial lessons about what went wrong:
(1) big wings who can shoot have more value relative to their college production than other players
(2) players who need space to operate + need physical development just look terrible in college (BJ Boston)

[Cammo101]

All things considered, so far you are looking pretty good.

[babyjax13]

All things considered, so far you are looking pretty good.

Thank you! Honestly it is looking like a really deep draft class from top to bottom, so it might just be some luck that at every level it has been better than expected.