The-Power's Big Board 2021

[The-Power]

Way too early as I've seen some of the prospects that haven't played in college yet only from highlights and we are only a couple of games into the season for anybody else as well. But I wanted to note some names down mainly to see how it goes from here (I fully expect drastic changes over the next months) and also to know from others who I should be looking at as potential top 10 prospects. So I'm happy to read who I might be missing, or who should be higher and lower (while explaining why, ideally).

Extremely Preliminary Top 10

1. Cade Cunningham
2. Jalen Suggs
3. Jonathan Kuminga
4. Evan Mobley
5. Jalen Green
6. Scottie Barnes
7. Brandon Boston
8. Josh Christopher
9. Jalen Johnson
10. Ziaire Williams

Some players that could be my ‘higher on them than most’ players this year (even if some of them are unlikely to enter the draft): Romeo Weems (love his versatility and defensive instincts), Jason Preston (no idea what to expect but he sure is fun to watch), Isaiah Jackson (not seen enough but love versatile hustle defenders at the 4), Moses Moody (looks like the type of player every team would want to have on their team).

[The-Power]

First effort at a Top 30 Big Board with tiers. A bunch of players still missing, some more players that I could have put in the last tier and no international prospects at this point. Tough to fill out the last tier, a bunch of guys in it haven't fully convinced me yet that they are indeed first round material but there is plenty of time and a bunch of guys will either drop or rise quite considerably most certainly. There's also a real chance that someone I have listed late, or haven't even mentioned at all, jumps into the lottery range and someone in this range falls completely out of the top 30. Still a lot of prospects I'm uncertain about and/or haven't seen nearly enough of (especially a number of full games versus good competition).

Anyhow, am I missing or sleeping on anyone in particular? Someone who's clearly a first round talent in your eyes that's not listed?

1. Cade Cunningham

2. Jalen Suggs
3. Jonathan Kuminga
4. Evan Mobley
5. Jalen Green

6. Scottie Barnes
7. Josh Christopher
8. James Bouknight
9. Moses Moody
10. Brandon Boston
11. Jalen Johnson
12. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
13. Keon Johnson

14. Ziaire Williams
15. Jason Preston
16. Romeo Weems
17. Justin Powell
18. Javonte Perkins
19. Isaiah Jackson
20. Jared Butler
21. Scottie Lewis
22. Ayo Dosunmu
23. Ron Harper Jr.
24. Ochai Agbaji
25. Terrence Clarke
26. Marcus Bagley
27. Isaiah Todd
28. Joe Wieskamp
29. Nah'Shon Hyland
30. Corey Kispert

[clyde21]

love the Joe Wieskamp inclusion, criminally underrated, Ochai as well

gonna have to see more of Preston and Perkins if you are that high on them

[The-Power]

love the Joe Wieskamp inclusion, criminally underrated, Ochai as well

gonna have to see more of Preston and Perkins if you are that high on them

You absolutely correctly pointed out the two players that stand out in terms of placement. I'll readily admit that both, but especially Preston, have considerable issues that could make their high ranking look foolish down the road. And considering that I haven't watched them nearly enough at this point, especially in multiple full games, I can't say this is a placement with a lot of confidence.

Re: Preston. I just have a hard time betting against a guy that has improved at a scale I have never seen before. At some point he'll hit his ceiling and that ceiling might not suffice due to some athletic and defensive limitations (I'd also like to see his handle become a bit tighter) – but he's as good a bet as anyone to actually reach that ceiling. If he can develop his body to pass the threshold, I believe his skill-set can carry him but he certainly would have bust potential in that range.

Re: Perkins. A lot depends on how his percentages evolve over the course of the season. That is, is he an elite shooter or not? He's a pedestrian athlete but definitely has the size, and I like how he moves off the ball. Thus far, he has also improved virtually across the board – 2P%, 3P%, FT%, AST, volume – and that's a point of emphasis for me. Of course it's still early in the season and if he comes down to earth, I'll most certainly drop him.

On Wieskamp in particular, I've actually been paying more attention to him after seeing some of your posts in which you express that you like him as a prospect, and I can definitely see the appeal in that late-first range. Same for Agbaji, Butler and Lewis that I know you like more than most.

[The-Power]

gonna have to see more of Preston and Perkins if you are that high on them

I'll walk back on Perkins; thought he was a Sophomore (and Sophomore-aged) and not a Senior. Obviously that makes him drop for me.

[The-Power]

Haven't watched a lot of film lately, so take it for what it's worth but I wanted to indicate some changes as the season has progressed. Still a lot of players I'd need to watch more to feel comfortable, and I'm not at all familiar with the international prospects this year.

1. Cade Cunningham
---
2-5 Jalen Suggs
2-5 Evan Mobley
2-5 Jalen Green
2-5 Jonathan Kuminga
---
---
6-11 Moses Moody
6-11 Jalen Johnson
6-11 James Bouknight
6-11 Josh Christopher
6-11 Keon Johnson
6-11 Scottie Barnes
---
12-24 Ayo Dosunmu
12-24 Corey Kispert
12-24 Scottie Lewis
12-24 Franz Wagner
12-24 Kai Jones
12-24 Jared Butler
12-24 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
12-24 Jason Preston
12-24 Brandon Boston
12-24 Isaiah Jackson
12-24 Ziaire Williams
12-24 Marcus Bagley
12-24 Romeo Weems

[jman3134]

As a Villanova fan and someone who has seen almost every game this year, Robinson Earl is not a 1st round pick in 2021.

[The-Power]

As a Villanova fan and someone who has seen almost every game this year, Robinson Earl is not a 1st round pick in 2021.

Appreciate the response. Care to elaborate what you think is missing? I thought he'd be of interest to a team that is mostly set and seeks to fill out the roster with a relatively versatile big. But you've seen him much more, so I'm happy to learn here.

[jman3134]

As a Villanova fan and someone who has seen almost every game this year, Robinson Earl is not a 1st round pick in 2021.

Appreciate the response. Care to elaborate what you think is missing? I thought he'd be of interest to a team that is mostly set and seeks to fill out the roster with a relatively versatile big. But you've seen him much more, so I'm happy to learn here.

Obviously this is an opinion, but I am pretty strong in this position at the moment. Covid has hurt him a lot. Since he came back from the break, he has been absolutely awful. His interior defense is not there (and he probably was never going to be an elite rim protector due to his lack of explosive vertical leaping ability) and he is shooting 29% from 3, though his form is good. Forget the percentages though, in the last few games, he is shooting wide open jumpers off of good ball reversal and he has been really bad there. He isn't rebounding well (with the exception of the St. John's game) and doesn't look the same as he did earlier in the year.

He is the kind of player who is smart and could carve out a career. But, he has to show better rim protection and needs to demonstrate that he can shoot it.

While he only had 3 TOs against St. John's it felt like these occurred on three consecutive possessions when the Red Storm pulled ahead. While the whole team struggled, he was particularly weak with the ball against Champagnie.

I hope he turns it around and starts to shoot at a better clip, while competing more on the glass. Part of this could be conditioning with the pandemic, but he has hurt his stock a bit.

[MotownMadness]

Did you leave Springer out on purpose? I'm getting kinda high on him as a possible top 10 but doesn't seem alot share the same opinion

[The-Power]

[...]

Thanks a lot for the reply! But to me that sounds more like Covid negatively affecting his play, which should have no bearing on his status as a prospect, no? At least this makes me feel more comfortable with his recent poor play. Still, I get the concern and I'm not sure yet where exactly I should rank him but if there was a drop-off that can be explained by his illness that should not linger forever then I won't hold it against him.

Did you leave Springer out on purpose? I'm getting kinda high on him as a possible top 10 but doesn't seem alot share the same opinion

I've thought about him but I'm just not sold yet. Not sure what's his ability that will keep him on the court in the NBA if he continues to not be comfortable taking 3's. It feels a bit forced and out of control on offense at times, and I doubt that works in the NBA. But he's certainly a prospect that I'll keep an eye on. After all, he's very young and I also haven't enough film on him to be absolutely positive about my assessment, so he could very well rise.

[jman3134]

Thanks a lot for the reply! But to me that sounds more like Covid negatively affecting his play, which should have no bearing on his status as a prospect, no? At least this makes me feel more comfortable with his recent poor play. Still, I get the concern and I'm not sure yet where exactly I should rank him but if there was a drop-off that can be explained by his illness that should not linger forever then I won't hold it against him.

Sorry - think my reply was unclear. I don't think he has had covid. At least, it hasn't been reported anywhere that I noticed. That would be an extra layer. I was referring more to the layoff that the entire program had from I think Dec 23 into January. This means that the conditioning might not be there.

The conditioning would impact his motor a bit, but it should not have much impact on factors like rim protecting. Maybe he hit a shooting slump due to the inconsistency? I want to make an excuse for him because he is a Nova guy and he looked great to start the year. But, the results don't lie with the poor shooting and mediocre defense imo. What is going to happen on an NBA schedule if he can't handle the rigors of covid delays?

[guille_4]

Not a fan of Usman Garuba?

[The-Power]

Not a fan of Usman Garuba?

I left out international players altogether at the time I posted this big board. I have my concerns about him and I am lower on him than some, but he sure would have made the list had I included international players.

[Hal14]

Thanks a lot for the reply! But to me that sounds more like Covid negatively affecting his play, which should have no bearing on his status as a prospect, no? At least this makes me feel more comfortable with his recent poor play. Still, I get the concern and I'm not sure yet where exactly I should rank him but if there was a drop-off that can be explained by his illness that should not linger forever then I won't hold it against him.

Sorry - think my reply was unclear. I don't think he has had covid. At least, it hasn't been reported anywhere that I noticed. That would be an extra layer. I was referring more to the layoff that the entire program had from I think Dec 23 into January. This means that the conditioning might not be there.

The conditioning would impact his motor a bit, but it should not have much impact on factors like rim protecting. Maybe he hit a shooting slump due to the inconsistency? I want to make an excuse for him because he is a Nova guy and he looked great to start the year. But, the results don't lie with the poor shooting and mediocre defense imo. What is going to happen on an NBA schedule if he can't handle the rigors of covid delays?

Curious if your opinion on Robinson-Earl has changed since he played another 10 or so games after your post?

I suppose the lack of rim protection is concerning but he projects as a 4 in the NBA and you're typically only looking for rim protection from your 5's and any rim protection from guys other than 5's is a bonus. But the poor 3 point shooting % for a 4 is concerning. Like you said, his form is good, though..

[jman3134]

Thanks a lot for the reply! But to me that sounds more like Covid negatively affecting his play, which should have no bearing on his status as a prospect, no? At least this makes me feel more comfortable with his recent poor play. Still, I get the concern and I'm not sure yet where exactly I should rank him but if there was a drop-off that can be explained by his illness that should not linger forever then I won't hold it against him.

Sorry - think my reply was unclear. I don't think he has had covid. At least, it hasn't been reported anywhere that I noticed. That would be an extra layer. I was referring more to the layoff that the entire program had from I think Dec 23 into January. This means that the conditioning might not be there.

The conditioning would impact his motor a bit, but it should not have much impact on factors like rim protecting. Maybe he hit a shooting slump due to the inconsistency? I want to make an excuse for him because he is a Nova guy and he looked great to start the year. But, the results don't lie with the poor shooting and mediocre defense imo. What is going to happen on an NBA schedule if he can't handle the rigors of covid delays?

Curious if your opinion on Robinson-Earl has changed since he played another 10 or so games after your post?

I suppose the lack of rim protection is concerning but he projects as a 4 in the NBA and you're typically only looking for rim protection from your 5's and any rim protection from guys other than 5's is a bonus. But the poor 3 point shooting % for a 4 is concerning. Like you said, his form is good, though..

Robinson Earl is one of those guys I think you take as a potential high character guy who will consistently work on his game and outperform what we saw on his college tape. While I thought that he would return for another season, I do see him as a borderline 1st/mid 2nd at worst just based on the individual profile apart from the game tape. I see very little about his college game translating in the pros, but he does have a nice shooting form and he fights hard on the interior. His post game is very nice, but I think we will see him putting up a ton of shots in the offseason and perfecting this element of his game. I believe he is the type of prospect to display incremental growth every summer league and then breakout after year 2/3 as a steady role player.

JRE was a bit more effective defensively down the stretch, but I have concerns about him defending along the perimeter. You draft him with his mentality and character in mind. He's someone who will push the envelope to carve out a niche.

[The-Power]

I have taken some time recently to look into more players in-depth, although I can't say that I've seen quite enough of everyone yet – especially of some guys further down the list. Still, I feel the need to update my big board as quite a bit has changed (still has moving parts, especially within tiers of course where I really struggled with the exact rankings).

It's my current top 30 (for the time being without explanation). The last tier obviously includes some more players and I tried to decide on who to include in part based who I'd be most comfortable drafting with a first round pick and handing out a guaranteed contract to.

1 Cade Cunningham

2 Jalen Green
3 Evan Mobley

4 Jalen Suggs
5 Scottie Barnes
6 Franz Wagner
7 Jonathan Kuminga
8 Moses Moody
9 Josh Christopher
10 Roko Prkačin
11 Alperen Şengün
12 Jalen Johnson

13 Jason Preston
14 Corey Kispert
15 Chris Duarte
16 Keon Johnson
17 Kai Jones
18 Kessler Edwards
19 Josh Giddey
20 Usman Garuba
21 Trey Murphy
22 Joe Wieskamp
23 Tre Mann
24 James Bouknight

25 JT Thor
26 Jaden Springer
27 Isaiah Jackson
28 Davion Mitchell
29 Neemias Queta
30 Ayo Dosunmu

Among the first picks in the second round who I'd want to secure to have a closer look at them and assess their potential: Sharife Cooper, Brandon Boston, Ziaire Williams, Na'Shon Hyland and Filip Petrusev (have him play another year in Europe). Add to it Quentin Grimes, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Joel Ayayi as guys I'd like to have a look at as potential bench players right out of the gate. Some other guys I considered here include Vrenz Bleijenbergh, Isaiah Todd and Miles McBride as possible upside picks, and Aaron Wiggins and Jared Butler as potential early contributors.

I left out Joshua Primo on purpose and will have a closer look at him in the next days. Hopefully I'm not missing anyone obvious but it's of course possible. As always, feel free to question and comment – I'm always happy to (re-)consider some prospects (not) on the list currently.

[clyde21]

why so low on Springer?

also a little high on Kispert/Durate, I realize they are win now type players with high floors, but what's the thought process with putting them in the same tier as guys like Giddey and Keon who are the opposite?

[The-Power]

why so low on Springer?

I've thought about him quite a bit and I just don't see a great path for him to be a starter. I'm worried about his clear hesitancy on 3s (which limits off-ball upside despite solid percentages, and I also didn't see him as a great off-ball cutter either) and as a creator, I have my doubts that he can create high-efficiency shots for himself consistently (he relies a lot on his physicality but that advantage becomes less obvious versus NBA competition) and I didn't see his playmaking as particularly creative or eye-popping (which implies not a primary on-ball role either). I see him as a solid CG off the bench who plays solid defense and makes solid plays on offense. I know, of course, that you and others are higher on him and I'm not saying it's wrong or unjustifiable – I think we just project him differently.

also a little high on Kispert/Durate, I realize they are win now type players with high floors, but what's the thought process with putting them in the same tier as guys like Giddey and Keon who are the opposite?

I guess part of it is that I'm not as high on this draft as far as late-lottery/mid-first-round prospects are concerned. That tier was particularly tough for me to rank and I agree that Keon/Giddey and Kispert/Duarte are very different types of prospects. But at some point, you'll necessarily have higher floor/lower ceiling prospects in the same tier with higher ceiling/lower floor prospects, no?

I think Kispert and Duarte are plug-and-play guys that should intrigue teams in the mid-first who are looking to make a playoff push or take the next step, or just consolidate their rosters. I see both of them as potential starters, too, so it's not like I'm advocating for drafting clear bench-players in this range. Kispert is by far the best off-ball player in this draft with next-level movement and elite efficiency, and Duarte is the kind of shooter with enough defense for whom teams should always find extended roles. With Keon, his floor is not that great and while he has definitely upside, I'm not sure it's really next-level upside as some believe – his shot would really have to become a strength for him, and so far he's still working on it not being a weakness. With Giddey, I love the passing and playmaking but I don't see him in a primary on-ball role due to limited scoring tools and some ball-handling deficiencies – and at that point, especially if we also take into account defensive limitations, we are really talking about a useful third-option kind of player.

So I totally agree that Giddey and Keon have more theoretical upside – but I still don't see the upside to become franchise players, or at least I'd think that this is an unlikely bet and an absolute best-case scenario. Meanwhile, I see guys like Kispert and Duarte (just like Wieskamp and Murphy in that tier) as appealing in that range for those teams that should value going with the bird in their hand over two in the bush. Hence, I've got them in one tier despite them being very different types of prospects, if that makes sense.

[yoyoboy]

You've gotta be psyched about your guys' draft!