RealGM

It's going to change a lot, but here is a very early cut at a mock:
bold = I like them relative to their draft position
red = I have some trepidation based on where I have them projected

Please note that brackets aren't in any way 1:1 comps, especially the further down you get, just players that aesthetically these guys resemble a bit, or who have some skills which - if these players reach their maximal outcomes - might look similarish.

Methodology: bunch of speculation based on https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-draft-workout-tracker-where-are-prospects-going/
1. ORL: Chet Holmgren (shades of Myles Turner but better rebounder, shooter, passer, worse roller) [range: 1-3]
2. OKC: Jabari Smith (shades of Jaren Jackson Jr.) [range: 1-3]
3. HOU: Paolo Banchero (shades of Detroit Blake Griffin) [range: 1-4]
4. SAC: Jaden Ivey (shades of SGA but faster/more explosive but less creative with the ball) [range: 3-5]
5. DET: Keegan Murray (shades of Paul Millsap on offense) [range: 4-7]
6. IND: Bennedict Mathurin (shades of Latrell Sprewell) [range: 5-9]
7. POR: Shaeden Sharpe (shades of Jalen Brown, Jason Richardson) [range: 5-13]
8. NOP (LAL): Dyson Daniels (shades of Nic Batum) [range: 5-10]
9. SAS: Jeremy Sochan (shades of rookie Pascal Siakam) [range: 8-12]
10. WAS: Johnny Davis (shades of Jordan Clarkson, Alec Burks (O), Gary Harris (D)) [range: 7-14]
11. NYK: Jalen Duren (shades of Kenyon Martin, Robert Williams) [range: 7-15]
12. OKC (LAC): AJ Griffin (shades of OG Anunoby, PJ Tucker) [range: 6-14]
13. CHA: Malaki Branham (shades of more athletic John Salmons) [range: 10-18]
14. CLE: Ousmane Dieng (shades of Otto Porter Jr.) [range: 10-17]
15. CHA (NOP): Mark Williams (shades of Mitchell Robinson) [range: 10-19]
16. ATL: Jalen Williams (shades of Khris Middleton, Paul George; but worse shooter) [range: 9-20]
17. HOU (BRK): Tari Eason (shades of Jerami Grant) [range: 15-22]
18. MIN: Ochai Agbaji (shades of Terence Davis, Lonnie Walker) [range: 13-22]
19. CHI: EJ Liddell (shades of Eric Paschall w/better rebounding) [range: 15-20]
20. SAS (TOR): TyTy Washington (shades of Raul Neto (playmaking), Reggie Jackson (scoring)) [range: 17-25]
21. DEN: Jake LaRavia [range: 20-30]
22. MEM (UTA): Blake Wesley (shades of Lonnie Walker) [range: 21-30]
23. PHI: Nikola Jovic (shades of Hedo Turkoglu [passing], Danilo Gallinari [scoring and D]) [range: 17-25]
24. MIL: Jaden Hardy (shades of Caris LeVert) [range: 17-30]
25. SAS (BOS): Kendall Brown (shades of Aaron Gordon, but more efficient) [range: 16-30]
26. HOU (DAL): Marjon Beauchamp (shades of Kelly Oubre) [range: 25-40]
27. MIA: Moussa Diabate (shades of Bam Adebayo, Xavier Tillman) [range: 15-33]
28. GSW: Wendell Moore (shades of less shot-happy Lance Stephenson) [range: 16-28]
29. MEM: Christian Koloko
30. DEN (PHX): Peyton Wayson (early career Jerami Grant)

31. IND (via HOU): Dalen Terry [range: 20-35]
32. ORL: Kennedy Chandler (shades of Mike Conley, more cerebral less explosive Jeff Teague) [range: 20-40]
33. TOR (DET): Max Christie (shades of Kerry Kittles, Chris Duarte) [range: 20-40]
34. OKC: Christian Braun [range: 25-35]
35. ORL (IND): Andrew Nembhard [range: 30-40]
36. POR: Caleb Houstan (shades of Kevin Huerter, Rodney Hood) [range: 26-40]
37. SAC: Walker Kessler (shades of Jakob Poeltl) [range: 25-45]
38. SAS (LAC): Jabari Walker (shades of Bobby Portis) [range: 20-40]
39. CLE (LAL): Alondes Williams (shades of college Will Barton, Alex Caruso) [range: 20-40]
40. MIN (WAS): Bryce McGowens (shades of Cam Reddish, Brandon Ingram) [range: 25-40]
41. CHA (NOP): Ismael Kamagate
42. NYK: Patrick Baldwin Jr. (shades of Danilo Gallinari, Sam Dekker)
43. LAC: Gui Santos
44. CHA: Jordan Hall
45. ATL: Trevor Keels (shades of Marcus Smart) [range: 23-45]
46. DET (BRK): Dereon Seabron
47. MEM (CLE): Ryan Rollins
48. SAC (CHI): John Butler
49. MIN: Michael Foster
50. GSW (TOR): Jean Montero [range: 25-50]
51. MIN (DET): Julian Champaigne
52. NOP (UTA): Gabriel Procida
53. MIA (PHI): forfeited
54. BOS: Keon Ellis
55. MIL: forfeited
56. WAS (DAL): Johnny Juzang
57. GSW: Hugo Besson
58. CLE (MIA): Yannick Nzosa
59. POR (MEM): David Roddy
60. IND (PHX): Dominick Barlow
Best of the rest: Matthew Mayer, Scottie Pippen Jr., Darius Days, Buddy Boeheim, Justin Lewis, Taz Sherman, Isaiah Mobley, Ibou Badji, Malcolm Cazalon, Kai Sotto, Michael Devoe, Gabe Brown,Josh Minot (shades of Darius Bazely), Kofi Cockburn, Iverson Molinar, Hyunjung Lee (shades of Georges Niang), Orlando Robinson, Karlo Matkovic

Archetype ranking:
switch = switches screens
drop = drop for screens
POA = defend primary ball-handler/self-creators
rotate = defend secondary/tertiary options, expected to rotate on defense
targeted = lol

Centers/Forwards (players that will be full or part-time centers or full-time power forwards)
Rim-runners + drop
1. Mark Williams
2. Christian Koloko
3. Walker Kessler
4. Orlando Robinson
5. Kofi Cockburn

Rim-runners + switch
1. Jalen Duren
2. Michael Foster
3. Yannick Nzosa
4. Ismael Kamagate?

Stretch + switch
1. Jabari Smith
2. Keegan Murray
3. Jabari Walker
4. John Butler
5. Josh Minott

Skill + drop
1. Chet Holmgren
2. Trevion Williams
3. Isaiah Mobley

Skill + rotate
1. Paolo Banchero
2. Jake LaRavia
3. Tristan Vukcevic

Skill + switch
1. Jeremy Sochan
2. Moussa Diabate
3. EJ Liddell
4. Kendell Brown
5. Peyton Watson
6. David Roddy
7. Jaylin Williams

Wings (players that will be able to switch between the 3 & 4, or 2 & 3, even if they are primarily at one position, not a team's primary ball-handler)

Self-creation + POA
1. Johnny Davis
2. Blake Wesley

Self-creation + rotate
1. Ousmane Dieng
2. Gui Santos
3. Marjon Beauchamp

Self-creation + targeted
1. Shaedon Sharpe
2. Jaden Hardy
3. Malaki Branham
4. Bryce McGowens
5. Patrick Baldwin
6. Ron Harper Jr.
7. Johnny Juzang

Spacer + POA
1. Bennedict Mathurin
2. AJ Griffin
3. Ochai Agbagi
4. Tari Eason
5. Darius Days
6. Leonard Miller

Spacer + rotate
1. Max Christie
2. Keon Ellis
3. Christian Braun
4. Caleb Houstan
5. Gabriel Procida
6. Julian Champaigne
7. Matthew Mayer

Spacer + targeted
1. Hyunjung Lee

Lead creators (will be a team's primary or secondary ball-handler)
Team-creation + POA
1. Dyson Daniels
2. Delan Terry
3. Wendell Moore
4. Kennedy Chandler

Team-creation + rotate
1. Jalen Williams
2. TyTy Washington
3. Andrew Nembhard
4. Jordan Hall

Team-creation + targeted
1. Nikola Jovic

Rim-pressure + POA
1. Trevor Keels
2. JD Davison

Rim-pressure + rotate
1. Jaden Ivey
2. Alondes Williams

Rim-pressure + targeted
1. Iverson Molinar

Perimeter-pressure + POA
1. Taz Sherman
2. Michael Devoe

Perimeter-pressure + rotate
1. Ryan Rollins
2. Tevin Brown

Perimeter-pressure + targeted
1. Jean Montero
2. Collin Gillespie
3. Hugo Besson
4. Buddy Boeheim

Logic: I expect these players to be in the tier I have them, or one tier away up or down.

Tier 1 (the future MVP candidate):
none

Tier 2 (the franchise centerpiece):
none

Tier 3 (the robin/centerpiece of a low-tier playoff team, but not a contender):
Jabari Smith
Jaden Ivey

Tier 4 (all-star, third best player on a contender)
Chet Holmgren
Johnny Davis
Paolo Banchero

Tier 5 (maybe an all-star, probably a really good starter)
Dyson Daniels
Shaedon Sharpe
Keegan Murray
Bennedict Mathurin
Moussa Diabate
Jalen Wiliams
Tari Eason
AJ Griffin
Peyton Watson

Tier 6 (solid starter)
Jeremy Sochan
Jalen Duren
Ochai Agbaji
Ousmane Dieng
Nikola Jovic
Mark Williams

Tier 7 (Low-end starter/high-end bench player)
Kendall Brown
Malaki Branham
Delan Terry
Kennedy Chandler
Walker Kessler
Max Christie
Bryce McGowens
Jabari Walker
Patrick Baldwin Jr.
Jaden Hardy
Wendell Moore
EJ Liddell

Tier 8 (early sub, 7th-9th man)
Christian Koloko
Jordan Hall
TyTy Washington
Alondes Williams
Gabriel Procida
JD Davison

Tier 9 (rotation player)
Trevor Keels
Tristan Vukcevic
Marjon Beauchamp
Johnny Juzang
Roko Prkacin
Jean Montero
Julian Champaigne
Michael Foster

Tier 10 (end-of-rotation)
Drew Timme
Buddy Boeheim
Kofi Cockburn


Other Prospects: Kai Sotto, Ron Harper Jr. [shades of Georges Niang, mid/late career Carmelo Anthony], Marcus Bagley, Orlando Robinson, Mojave King, Nikoz Chougkaz, Kenneth Loften Jr., Ryan Nembhard, Matthew Mayer, Isaiah Mobley, Samuel Williamson, Hunter Dickenson, Kevin Obanor, Marcus Carr, Fardaws Aimaq, John Tonje

2023 (i.e. underperforming or too young to be drafted): Emoni Bates, Scoot Henderson, Victor Wembanya, Matthew Cleveland, Peyton Watson, Daimion Collins, Mojave King, Caleb Houstan, Jun Seok Yeo, Ibu Yamazaki, Fanbo Zeng
Off the board until cleared: Keyontae Johnson [shades of PJ Tucker, Miles Bridges]

Romeo Weems was in the 2021 draft.

^ Begarin also

Is this draft deep?

TravisScott55 wrote:Is this draft deep?

My initial impression is that it is not as deep as last year in terms of sheer quantity of NBA players, but if you are drafting mid/late lottery I think it might have better prospects in that area (obviously it's all very early). I'll have a better feel for it probably around December when we've gotten to see these guys play in college a bit.

TravisScott55 wrote:Is this draft deep?

Revisiting this, I really like the top 4. It's not as good there as last year, but all of Smith/Ivey/Banchero/Holmgren are really intruiging in their own way. But a lot of the middle-lottery prospects have struggled to start the year (Hardy/Duren/Baldwin/Jovic/Dieng). I'd say this draft is mostly below average, not terrible, but not special. There are guys I like and I'm really hoping Flannigan shows out in the predraft process b/c I think he has a chance to be really good.

I haven't studied the draft in depth, but imo there are 2 tier 1 players in this draft - they just knock my socks off moreso than the more heralded bigs in this draft - Jaden Ivey and Kendall Brown. But it wouldn't surprise me if Jabari, Chet and Banchero all go before them.

Orlando passes on Banchero for Chet 10 out of 10 times.

Ruzious wrote:I haven't studied the draft in depth, but imo there are 2 tier 1 players in this draft - they just knock my socks off moreso than the more heralded bigs in this draft - Jaden Ivey and Kendall Brown. But it wouldn't surprise me if Jabari, Chet and Banchero all go before them.

I like Brown a lot. If he can learn to shoot I think he can be one of the better connecting pieces in the league, but I don't think he has the potential to be the best or second best player on a championship team without some really atypical development in that regard (a la Kawhi). Those outcomes are at the extreme high end, but I think all of Ivey, Smith, Banchero, and Chet have it in them (probably all more likely as the 'robin' rather than the 'batman') and so they are a lot safer in the top 4. I'd be really comfortable picking Brown 5th, and could also be persuaded that he's a better selection than Chet. I have Ivey 2 on my big board and I do see a gap between the Smith/Ivey duo and the Banchero/Chet duo.

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:Orlando passes on Banchero for Chet 10 out of 10 times.

Chet really scares me and Banchero feels like much more of a sure thing. Maybe Orlando would, but I think they'd be better off taking Banchero and moving some of their other pieces to balance the roster after.

babyjax13 wrote:

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:Orlando passes on Banchero for Chet 10 out of 10 times.

Chet really scares me and Banchero feels like much more of a sure thing. Maybe Orlando would, but I think they'd be better off taking Banchero and moving some of their other pieces to balance the roster after.

Orlando values length, defensive upside, versatility, professionalism.

All which Chet possesses and Banchero doesn't.

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:

babyjax13 wrote:

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:Orlando passes on Banchero for Chet 10 out of 10 times.

Chet really scares me and Banchero feels like much more of a sure thing. Maybe Orlando would, but I think they'd be better off taking Banchero and moving some of their other pieces to balance the roster after.

Orlando values length, defensive upside, versatility, professionalism.

All which Chet possesses and Banchero doesn't.

6-10 with a 7-5 wingspan. Generates steals, averages about a block per 36. He certainly isn't massive like Chet, but he's a big long guy with tons of versatility.

babyjax13 wrote:

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:

babyjax13 wrote:Chet really scares me and Banchero feels like much more of a sure thing. Maybe Orlando would, but I think they'd be better off taking Banchero and moving some of their other pieces to balance the roster after.

Orlando values length, defensive upside, versatility, professionalism.

All which Chet possesses and Banchero doesn't.

6-10 with a 7-5 wingspan. Generates steals, averages about a block per 36. He certainly isn't massive like Chet, but he's a big long guy with tons of versatility.

What is Banchero's best comp?

azcatz11 wrote:

babyjax13 wrote:

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:
Orlando values length, defensive upside, versatility, professionalism.

All which Chet possesses and Banchero doesn't.

6-10 with a 7-5 wingspan. Generates steals, averages about a block per 36. He certainly isn't massive like Chet, but he's a big long guy with tons of versatility.

What is Banchero's best comp?

Some of the Pistons fans have compared him to Detroit era Blake on offense (pre-injury), I like that. Others have said Randle, I think Paolo is significantly more explosive and a better shooter. Defensively I think he'll hold his own but it's hard to tell exactly how he will translate when he is playing next to Mark Williams. He has the physical tools to be good and I don't think his awareness is terrible.

babyjax13 wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:

babyjax13 wrote:6-10 with a 7-5 wingspan. Generates steals, averages about a block per 36. He certainly isn't massive like Chet, but he's a big long guy with tons of versatility.

What is Banchero's best comp?

Some of the Pistons fans have compared him to Detroit era Blake on offense (pre-injury), I like that. Others have said Randle, I think Paolo is significantly more explosive and a better shooter. Defensively I think he'll hold his own but it's hard to tell exactly how he will translate when he is playing next to Mark Williams. He has the physical tools to be good and I don't think his awareness is terrible.

Do you think his shooting is going to translate though? I was thinking he looked like a better Derrick Williams to me but I could be way off

azcatz11 wrote:

babyjax13 wrote:

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:
Orlando values length, defensive upside, versatility, professionalism.

All which Chet possesses and Banchero doesn't.

6-10 with a 7-5 wingspan. Generates steals, averages about a block per 36. He certainly isn't massive like Chet, but he's a big long guy with tons of versatility.

What is Banchero's best comp?

Demar Derozan in a PF body.

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:

babyjax13 wrote:6-10 with a 7-5 wingspan. Generates steals, averages about a block per 36. He certainly isn't massive like Chet, but he's a big long guy with tons of versatility.

What is Banchero's best comp?

Demar Derozan in a PF body.

That's a hell of a player. Are you being serious?

azcatz11 wrote:

babyjax13 wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:
What is Banchero's best comp?

Some of the Pistons fans have compared him to Detroit era Blake on offense (pre-injury), I like that. Others have said Randle, I think Paolo is significantly more explosive and a better shooter. Defensively I think he'll hold his own but it's hard to tell exactly how he will translate when he is playing next to Mark Williams. He has the physical tools to be good and I don't think his awareness is terrible.

Do you think his shooting is going to translate though? I was thinking he looked like a better Derrick Williams to me but I could be way off

I think it will. If you are skeptical that's not the worst comp. I just think he is immensely talented for his size and NBA spacing is really going to help him.

azcatz11 wrote:

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:
What is Banchero's best comp?

Demar Derozan in a PF body.

That's a hell of a player. Are you being serious?

Dead serious.

but is it really? A big that does his damage from the perimeter, liability beyond the arch, subpar defender and will not be able to use his strength/size to his advantage against NBA bodies.

Less athletic John Collins?
Rookie Miles Bridges?
Worst shooting version of Tobias Harris?

Somewhere around there, obviously still a max player in todays NBA but that doesn't really mean much nowadays.

This isn't a Banchero sucks post, but more a give me Chets upside instead argument.