King Ken's Big Board 2022 (Early Look)

[King Ken]

These kids are as productive as I've seen in years at the top. Last year, it was the top 3 then scouting kicked in, and then it was the top 5. This year before scouting kicks in, it's the top 6 and a major drop-off from there.

The kids this year are: Jabari Smith (Tyrone, GA/Auburn), c holmgren (Gonzaga), P. Banchero (Duke) J. Ivey (Purdue), J. Duren (Memphis), and Kendall Brown (Baylor)

Smith doesn't remind me of anyone in particular. His game is perimeter based but he can play with his back to the basket. He plays kinda like JC but not as explosive but way better with the ball in his hands, can dribble drive, dribble pull up, he can C&S. I don't dislike anything about him. His metrics are off the scale. He can pass it very well. He's not a #1 option type but he's a perfect #2 whereas JC is a perfect #3. Smith's defensive potential is very good. Man, he's a stud. I like him as much as I liked Mobley. I think he's a legit #1 overall pick for sure. A for sure stud. If I am DET or ORL, he's for sure my top target no matter what.

https://tankathon.com/players/jabari-smith

Chet is strange like Trae Young. He got clear bust things like his size and frame but his talent and ability is world-class and he's a legit #1 option down the road with high-end quality defensive potential. Some people will likely sleep on him but he's probably gonna be a major star in the NBA. He's extremely productive and we knew he was a serious NBA talent before he played a game in college. I doubt he will go #1 but he should get considerations.

https://tankathon.com/players/chet-holmgren

Pablo is a very productive freshman which is a positive. He's not out of this world like the two above or Zion but he's very good for an FR which is a great sign. With Pablo, you are looking for the "it" factor and honestly, I don't see it even as a Duke fan. If there is a player comp, he's a young Tobias Harris meets a young Derrick Coleman. I don't see a future superstar but he's gonna be a multi-time all-star and someone teams will have to respect. This is such a strong PF class.

https://tankathon.com/players/paolo-banchero

J. Duren is probably the most impressive natural 5 I've seen in a while. It's been a weak position for a minute. 2018 was the year of Ayton, Carter Jr, and Bamba as far as natural 5s go. He reminds me a lot of Mitchell Robinson but he has a much better natural frame while being like Robinson was before the weight gain. The weight gain hurt Mitch's athleticism and unlike Robinson, he has a very high feel for the game and BBIQ. Now Duren is really a #4 or #5 option on offense but he's a defensive anchor. Duren will get a lot of love because centers like him are so freaking hard to find. Jarrett Allen turned himself into a stud being like this but Allen is nowhere near as impressive as Duren at this stage. Some people won't like it but he could go #1. It's so hard to find centers like this.

https://tankathon.com/players/jalen-duren

J. Ivey is the best guard in this draft by a mile. If you had to compare him to other great guard prospects like trae-young--ja-morant--davion-mitchell--jalen-suggs. You will notice he is not the scorer Trae or Ja was but is superior to the others. Ivey like Suggs is an elite rebounding guard. In the NBA, I do believe Ivey will be a 1. His assists a not close to these other players which hurts his positional versatility rank. That said, Russell Westbrook is proof that this doesn't matter as much if you are an elite slasher which Ivey is. In the NBA, the ability to get the rack at will opens up passing lanes even if you have iffy court vision. I personally feel like Ivey is a rich man's Russell Westbrook due to his shooting ability. If you want to draft the most sure-fire star in this draft, it's Ivey but there are better basketball players in this draft.

https://tankathon.com/players/jaden-ivey

Kendall Brown (Baylor), a unique player, has tremendous vision, not much of a half-court player due to a shaky shoot but has a really good feel for the game, and makes really good live ball decisions with the ball and quickly. Doesn't hold the ball. Good ball-handler. Tries to attack closeouts and is a really good finisher around the rim. His defense is active and smart. He's clearly a 3. Isn't that skilled. More of a role player for now. Once he improves his jump shot, he could become a really good player and maybe a stud with development. Guys at his height and athletic ability with good feel and BBIQ are always intriguing long term. He's extremely productive but has what I call the JJJ bug which is, when you play under 24 MPG as an NBA prospect, there is a great chance you are no good right now.

https://tankathon.com/players/kendall-brown



After that, this class has role players like https://tankathon.com/players/keegan-murray and very talented but raw guys like https://tankathon.com/players/patrick-baldwin-jr. It should be fun to see who also emerges in this class. Overall, outside of the top 6, good luck getting a legit stud. Bennedict Mathurin, A.J. Griffin, TyTy Washington, and Mark Williams are interesting to me.

[King Ken]

If I had to rate a top 6 for this class:

1. J. Ivey - I always say, go for the superstar. I can understand if DET or HOU don't do this but OKC can. NO has to do this, as do the Spurs, Blazers, Pacers, and Knicks. It's hard to pass on a guard talent like this when teams need #1 options more than anything.

2. Chet - He might be smaller than Brandan Wright size-wise but he's taller and just a lot better. His size and frame are a major issue but his skills, talent, and ability are world-class. He's a difference-maker and those are what you want in a draft. If there is a team I think should look at Chet at #1, it's the Houston Rockets.

3. Jabari Smith - I think he's the best player in this draft. Just, you want a #1 option at #1. He's best as a #2. His frame is narrow like JC. That said, this guy got everything to be a star for many years to come in the NBA. The surest thing in this draft. Sometimes, the best players go 3. MJ and Mobley for example.

I feel there is a gap after 3. Duren, Pablo, and Brown are all worthy top of the lottery picks but they are more fill the need players who can become something more than actual difference makers. I don't see a Zion in this class but I do see stars.

4. I'll have to go with Brown. He's the rawest of the bunch but wings who can PDS(pass, dribble, shoot), athletic, defend at a high level, and have at least the shooting form to look like they can be good is so hard to find and these guys develop so well in this league. Gambling on these guys generally works, you just gotta be patient. For Brown, at least the defense is there.

5. Duren - I just think finding a natural 5 who can anchor, have high BBIQ, screen, is athletic, and can defend in space with a legit NBA 5 frame is so hard to find. Teams need it so bad and it's so hard to find. I just think he has the edge over Pablo.

6. Pablo - I just think the offensive-minded 4 who can PDS and can shoot is very valuable but it's not a difference-maker. He will be a lottery pick for sure but defense is more important for 4/5 in 2021 than offense is if you are amicable on both ends. Pablo would probably be a clear #1 in 2006.

[Village Idiot]

Who is the JC you are referring to as a comparison to Jabari Smith?

[King Ken]

Who is the JC you are referring to as a comparison to Jabari Smith?

John Collins

[Village Idiot]

:(

Who is the JC you are referring to as a comparison to Jabari Smith?

John Collins

Thanks. Not an abbreviation I've seen much, probably common parlance among Hawks fans though

FWIW I like Smith a lot more than Collins. Jabari's defense, rebounding and shooting are at a higher level than Collins'. The way he just picked apart Syracuse's zone from the foul line attests to a very high basketball IQ (unlike JJJ who was unplayable against them four years ago)

Great analysis overall!

[King Ken]

:(

Who is the JC you are referring to as a comparison to Jabari Smith?

John Collins

Thanks. Not an abbreviation I've seen much, probably common parlance among Hawks fans though

FWIW I like Smith a lot more than Collins. Jabari's defense, rebounding and shooting are at a higher level than Collins'. The way he just picked apart Syracuse's zone from the foul line attests to a very high basketball IQ (unlike JJJ who was unplayable against them four years ago)

Great analysis overall!

Collins is much better than you think but I like his long term projection a lot more as well.

Collins is an excellent shooter for a big but he doesn't shoot with high end variance, almost no big has outside of Dirk and Smith is one of the few you can use in multiples and he can create off the dribble. He's an unique prospect and as you said, high BBIQ and 7'2 wingspan at 6'10 220. He has the versatility and height that's needed for a star PF. He may never be a superstar but he could be star PF who unlocks your team's potential like Mobley did for Cleveland.