bucknuts mock

[bucknut]

6/25

Gonna update this through summer league - just haven't watched full games going by limited highlight tapes on alot of guys last few days

Mock below - always based on equation of floor, ceiling, and bust potential......taking out everything and just basing this on safest picks could have mark williams going much higher.


1 Ivey - highest ceiling, superstar potential, hall of fame potential, don't see anyway he busts. More powerful, longer gate bigger Ja Morant
2 Jabari Smith - 6-10 klay thompson , safe floor, won't be a superstar due to lack of ability to put it on deck but can be a klay thompson type all star and like his defense.
3 - Johnny Davis - this kid is too gritty to bust, lack of explosion is going to stop him from being superstar but his defense, rebounding is underlooked. ....biggest question is will he athletically be able to translate offensively but I think he's too polished not too. think he can make all stars or strong supporting 2nd option like mccollum
4 - Chet - Higher ceiling then everyone but ivey but not as safe - kid shows some nice confidence in interviews, don't think he's gonna bust. Could see 12-15 ppg, 2 blocks per game, a nice complimentary piece on a great team but maybe a 3rd option offensively but flows the offense better with movement...no post game/not sure he can self create enough on o to reach his ceiling.
5 - Banchero - will put up stats avg 20 i'm guessing but doesn't feel like he can affect winning like a lower scorer like chet could without great on d and he lacks explosion in the paint, and can only play 1 position - will never be a superstar, maybe a borderline all star.
6 - Keegan Murray - see nothing special in him when i watch him play no great skills but versatile player, even blocks shots, and something to be said for having knack to move to get buckets without looking great doing it ...don't see him being all star level but a good scoring punch role player but a safer pick then some of the guys behind him
7 - Beauchamp - athletic slasher to the max, great defense; just not sure if he is anything more than a role player though but confident he can stick around in the league in a role. need to see more....never seen a star with jr smith tats everywhere ..no plays ran for him in g league. Coach josh hart comps him too mikal bridges but I think way more slash ability and ability to get to the cup then bridges but not as good a 3. Looks like he may play dumb like jr smith too with errant passes. the jr smith of athletic slashing wings. If a coach starts running plays for him tho and he develops a jumpshot can be dynamic scorer already is a dynamic scorer without it.
8 - Jovic - my biggest wildcard in the draft, prettiest offense on film, biggest mover or riser or faller of getting a look at him in summer league and see his d too very little film exists.
9 - Jalen Williams - has some paul pierce/butler to his game , slow tempo, - not a great rebounder as those two or taking contact at rim but a better passer, some chance on this pick he struggles athletically with quickness at next level and limits his star power. Love the body though which gives him a chance to play with pace and not be super athletic. Like his playmaking and ability to operate in mid range more than a guy like a matherin.
10 -Matherin - jason richardson 2.0.....even if he is a more epxlosive tim hardaway jr he has a place in the league, some potential cause still hard for me to believe this dudes athleticism can't become a better driver of the ball for 2
11- Mark Williams - readymade....0 bust potential...dude is going to be productive/could should be higher but feel can get guys to fit this role kinda of like koloko later in draft for value. But he will have ton of productivity for charlotte and early. not sure yet who will be better between him and duran, williams wider, more imposing inside defensively in my opinion but duran moves better
12 Duran
13 Liddell - see almost as low possibility he doesn't bust as mark williams - but might have a higher upside with the offensive ability and switchability. Going to be a reliable player a david west paul milsap. production wise could be top 10 guy easy
14 - dalen terry - this guy is an efficient role player. 2 steps from 3 he's dunking, has some maxi kleber to his game - great d - will fit a role nice
15 - dieng - has a place as a nik batum role player in the league; i'd take him before sochan....offensively not sure he will ever be great scorer
16 - sochan - not a fan of the draymond prototype but I think spurs organization is going to be too good for this guy to fail completely and not carve out a role
17 - branham - branham's gonna make it offensively as a nice mid range guy i think no question. Just don't think he has the defense to be a middleton and lack of explosion to bucket is going to keep him from being anything more than a nice bucket getter role guy
18 - wendell moore - think he's the best of the dukes guards imo by far and a can provide some value
19 - koloko - guys that block shots like this guy will be around the league...feels like a raptors pick, if he hits 3s he climbs this board fast
20 - ryan rollins - liked him at toledo alot.
21 nembhard - this guy can carve out a scoring role
22 Jamaree Boyea - watched 1 minute of his film and saw a pro, looks like a darren collison with a 3, no idea what his weaknesses are, looks great. might be moving him up
23 - Jaylin Williams - arkansas big too good positionally and taking charges and angles on d - can carve out some minutes


some sleepers not drafted i like - kam mcgusty, trevion williams, jared rhoden

Guys who can't play dead in a cowboy movie and will have no nba value -
Aj Griffin - can't play dead, Keels even worse, Caleb Houston can't play dead. Jalen Hardy chucker dumb player, think Easons a bust with griffin
Christian Braun won't make it, Patrick Baldwin - that dude's athleticism is toast

Ogbaji - don't see him being good really but has small chance can carve out 3 and d role

Everyone else not mentioned i need to a) see some more of them - sharpe, procida just to lack of film or others just not sure yet but who i don't hate

Daniels I have gotten some film work in and right now I just don't think he is going to be special, I think quicker guys can get by him on D, and his offense will always be a hindrance is my stance now think he will show flashes as a rookie but not develop into something down the line more than a role player in the likes of some of the spurs euro point guards

[bucknut]

already ready to move branham up to top 9 above jalen williams and matherin and could end up being a top 5 guy - now that i think about it what he does well he does better than most of these guards and what they do well, and thats just naturally shooting the basketball and natural feel for scoring and way he carries his body so smooth looks like an nba player if i've ever seen one. His wing span and fluid body movement look like mikal bridges with a J or a smaller durant. With that type of fluid long body how can he be such a bad defender ? Noticed at ohio state right away he doesn't have a left hand, so that is how raw he is in his development spurs will get his left hand working and his dribbling and make him play defense.

liddell and branham are real the rest of the roster sucked on that team last year

[bucknut]

6/27 updated big board before summer league

.....saw some more matherin and dude is not my cup of tea....small looking guard who can't do anything but shoot 3s, he could bust or just have a very defined role in nba but no doubt to me he is decidely behind davis, williams, branham, beauchamp at the wing at the very least. Moving Jalen Williams and Branham way up, both move so naturally. for Branham though it's skill - mid range polish is super translatable and he's probably got more wiggle then a guy like middleton who is not as athletic., see more of his points through the system of the offense then iso fadeaways of middleton but too much translatable skill/length/flowy movement. Williams is the sexiest player with the ball in his hands in the draft I don't even care if he isn't great at the rim.

Tier 1
1) Ivey
2) Jabari Smith - this dude can drive better than ppl think I just don't think he prefers doing it.
3 ) Chet

Tier 2
4) Banchero
5) Johnny Davis
6) Jalen Williams
7) Malaki Branham
8) Beauchamp
9) Jovic - at this point scared of inefficient stepback 3 point chucker who doesn't get any 2 point baskets but leaving him here based on potential for now.

Tier 3
10 ) Mark Williams
11) Duren
12) Murray
13) sochan
14) koloko
15) liddell

Tier 4
16) dieng - this guy can dribble better than batum has behind the back dribbles all day, problem is he is worst at rim in draft vs bigs way worse than teammate jalen williams.
17 ) Dalen Terry

high potential role guys
18) seabron - highest ceiling role player guy , best slasher in draft other then Beauchamp, should get to rim at will
19) rollins
20) bouyea
21) josh minott - top 12 on chad fords big boards

[bucknut]

moving duren up over williams think he has better faceup/footwork/offensive potential.

Tier 2 - potential all stars/borderline all stars
4) Banchero
5) Johnny Davis
6) Jalen Williams
7) Malaki Branham
8) Beauchamp
9) Jovic
10) Duren

[bucknut]

7/2 big board , some more tweaking before summer league tonight

most all stars ever has had 12 all stars/borderline all star guys ....mark williams and and sochan going to be added to make that 12 potential all stars, mark williams doesn't have all star profile but if tyson chandler/gobert can he can

1 ivey
2 jabari smith

3 chet
4 paulo
5 johnny davis
6 jalen williams
7 malaki branham
8 beauchamp
9 jovic
10 duren
11 mark williams
12 sochan

I think thats the 12 all star potential guys in this draft, in my opinion........Sochan the more I watch this guy the more I love his feet. he's got better feet then draymond and switchability. He has different feet then a guy like dyson daniels whose defense is so highly touted, daniels defense is just moving his feet to keep his body in front of you with his balance ..sochan has more active feet he can attack the defender. Dyson daniels offensively to me is a taller buno udrih of the spurs but not all star potential- very average.

for role players - only worth listing guys who will play better or equal to their draft position.........matherin, daniels, not worth mentioning if they carve out a small role player role.

Role guys - liddell - (love this guy but he doesn't have the drive ability and movement of a milsap on offense to be an all star imo and if everything is a post up his size is going to hurt him a bit, wouldn't be surprised if he is tho his toolset is nice)
koloko, jalyn williams, terry, wendell moore, bouyea, josh minott, seabron, - some of the guys so far to play better than draft position for role players

[bucknut]

After year 1 rerank

Feeling very good about having jalen Williams and branham both top 7......still feel pretty good about 12 all star potential guys I have listed.

Johnny davis I'm not giving up hope. But I don't see the devin booker comparison high end spectrum....he's just not as confident free flowing maybe he is less athletic then book. Can see a great defender who gives you McCollum like scoring possible still if he's playing shorter then his height. Defense is a factor in this kids ability. Worse case is a a josh Hart? He will always score better then Hart imo. His grittiness and defense I feel are elite. ....he showed some physical drive ability here in summer league imo.

Jovic the least of them I would say after year 1. But for his size he can move seriously fast straight line in transition. He wants to give you some jasum Tatum flashes of athleticism and perimeter moves but ultimately he is more traditional white euro galinari esque and ankles just limiting his athleticism that seems tantalizing at times. He can still have a solid future upside tho

Ultimately #1 through 4 is looking more interchangeable as we sit today. Still believe ivey 1 due to his insane first step but dude needs to show up some more.....I have most questions about Jabari at 2 being the biggest miss when he is showing an inability to do anything off the bounce and 3 pointer being way less efficient then hyped.

Speaking of efficiency that's what I love about keegan murray....always saw him as elite 3rd option just not an All star but he was in that hovering range near top 12

Kessler obviously should of had him higher for what he's bringing wasn't on many people's thougts radar predraft but knew the blocks would translate.

Mathurin made first team and I still don't think I wanna put him ahead of guys in my top 12 so far. Huge volume inefficient doesn't do much else imo.

Other opinions.....dude on spurs from notre dame blake wesley is guy more I see I am convinced he has 0 career. Hate his type of player.

Liking Minott here in summer league 23....offensively his strides remind me of boris draw and if he shows some of that he's gold. Offensively tells me he has something which was a question

Kid on hawks from uconn on hawks can have a future. Has the strength stride length and exploaion to do make it. Very impressed in summer league.

Braun for nuggets. I said predraft he would not make it in nba....and he still won't make it as soon as he's traded to another team. He has elite off ball skills is a read and react cut pass quick pass quick cut type player. His shot is not good. And I doubt he will ever be more then a 1 trick pony defender and transition guy on most teams and horrible halfcpurt player unless he is in the nuggets system. I love the way this dude plays. And I love the quick cuts and passes