2025 Draft Stuff (now with dubious second round)
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2024 4:04 pm
1. DAL: Cooper Flagg (range: 1)
I think I am more a believer in the jumper than the consensus. From the midrange he has historically been consistent off the dribble, on the move, backing down, etc. and it looks projectable to three to me. So far in college that has not been the case, but I think part of this is spacing. He might not be as consistent from three because of his high release, but I think he will have a degree of consistency from the midrange that means he will generate offensive value very few players can from that portion of the court. Excellent midrange scorers do have value in the league, especially if they generate freethrows on those shots (DeRozan, Durant, Booker, Ingram, Middleton, etc.). He has decent passing vision, certainly above average for a power forward, has some on-ball creation potential, etc. etc. I love Kirilenko, but I think that comparison is selling Flagg's scoring and aggressiveness on offense short. Defensively he has good anticipation, fast hands, isn't afraid of physicality, etc. I think he will be a plus shotblocker for his position, but he's not going to be like Kirilenko in that regard, either. I think he is and will be more of a 4 than a 3, and that he will cause more matchup problems from there, anyway.
(shades of: Scottie Pippen, Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes)
2. SAS: Dylan Harper (range: 2)
Harper has looked much better in college than he did in high school. He already had a tremendous ability to slither through a defense, but in college his physical strength and speed have become an advantage as his body develops. Harper presses much less, he moves well off ball, he has decent passing vision, and he is fantastic at getting to the rim in a league where the paint is packed and instead of having to beat one defender you usually have to beat two. He can contort himself to finish, is a master of hitting layups off the glass at odd angles, etc. I have confidence his shot will improve, but right now there is a bit of a hitch that slows down his release and has resulted in some inconsistency (that isn't there when he has time from the line).
(shades of: James Harden w/less passing)
3. PHI: Ace Bailey (range: 3-11)
I'm not fully convinced on Bailey, but big players who can shoot (and he can do that) always have value. The handle is suspect, his shot selection is sometimes alarmingly bad ... but he just makes them from all over. I could see him sliding down over the course of the season if other areas don't improve, but I understand the allure of Bailey as a (as of this moment) consensus top-5 player. Defensively extremely disruptive, great footwork and anticipation at times, plays extremely hard. Creates transition opportunities.
(shades of: Michael Porter Jr., Josh Howard [defense], Rashard Lewis)
4. CHA: VJ Edgecombe (range: 4-9)
I think Edgecombe's shooting has come along faster than anticipated. He does not have the fastest release, but I do think he will be at least an average shooter through his career. Explosive athlete, but very basic ball handling which limits his upside a bit as he won't be a lead guard. But, as a straight line driver he is incredibly quick and should be very good next to a big lead guard like Cade or LaMelo. His defensive upside is very nice. I think he will fit into the Melton/Suggs/White role, it is just a question of what caliber player he will be there.
(shades of: De'Anthony Melton, Derrick White)
5. UTA: Tre Johnson (range: 3-7)
Johnson is a scoring machine, he hits at every level, and has a good enough handle to self-create. He is also fantastic in off-ball movement. Defensively he gives effort, but doesn't seem to be anything better than average on that end, rebounding numbers are poor for his size, but need to watch a bit more and see if some of that is scheme. He plays with an edge I like.
(shades of: Bennedict Mathurin, Zach LaVine (less athletic), Ray Allen (less athletic))
6. WAS: Kon Kneuppel (range: 3-12)
Shoots the heck out of the ball, on the move, off screens, seeing less off the dribble. Very physical, reminds me of a guard version of Bojan Bogdanovic. Has *some* secondary creation, but he is really a shoot it or move it player.
(shades of: Bojan Bogdanovic, Quentin Richardson)
7. NOP: Jeremiah Fears (range: 5-16)
Fears is really fun to watch, extremely quick acceleration with decent vision and great instincts for when to pull up/dribble out/pressure the rim. His FT% is excellent and I think the shot is some minor tweaks away from being really, really good. Concerns are size and the ability to switch defensively at the NBA level, and you also hope that he gets assists at a higher volume, but he's good enough he should and will be a lottery pick.
(shades of Jeff Teague, Devin Harris, Damian Lillard)
8. BRK: Khaman Maluach (range: 6-13)
Maluach is very fluid with fantastic size. He has the potential to be a very good defensive anchor. He still doesn't have the best hands, and I think there are some limitations there he won't overcome. I also don't believe in the shot at all. That said he is massive, he did not look out of place athletically or size wise matched up with Anthony Davis. I'm not sure I'll have him in the lottery at the end of the year, but I fully expect him to go 10-20 and be in that Walker Kessler/Mitchell Robinson mold of effective, "mostly" one way players who have good physicality. Maluach is a bit bigger, and I think no less mobile, so he may be a step up as a prospect (but not a huge one, IMO).
9. TOR: Cedric Coward (range: ?)
Great shooter wide open, physical. Played power forward in the Big Sky and then transitioned to playing wing at Washington State. Not super explosive, does not have amazing handles, but can hit midrange shots and finish through contact. I have not been able to watch a ton of footage of him, but what I've seen is at least interesting and the 10-20 range feels like a safe bet.
10. HOU (PHX): Kasparas Jakucionis (range: 6-15)
In international play I thought Jakucionis was not as impressive as Saraf or Traore, but in general he made the right plays and could hit open threes or take advantage of a bent defense. I've done my first watch at the NCAA level (against Tennessee) and he looks to be a reliable shooter and secondary playmaker. He did struggle with ball pressure, but navigated the pnr well. Illinois also runs a ton of screens for him, but they never empty out the side so that he has a chance to get to the rim. He's not consistently turning the corner, but a more advantageous system or spread court would help him.
11. POR: Noa Essengue (range: 8-18)
Extremely mobile for his size with nice ability to attack a bent defense. Offensively he moves well off ball and is active, but can get bumped off his spots. The jumper has improved over the year, but I think it is going to take a few seasons before he is aa 35%+ shooter from range. Defensively he often looks gassed and sometimes out of position but he is capable of covering a lot of ground and switching onto smaller defenders. I think some of what I've seen defensively was from the dynamics of youth competitions where he was asked to carry a massive offensive burden. This season I see less of it when I watch, I assume because of role. It's something to keep an eye on. I am worried that lots of prospects in this range and above have at least one elite skill and Essengue does not, just lots of things he is pretty decent at.
12. CHI: Carter Bryant (range: 5-17)
Bryant has the aesthetics of an NBA player but an unimpressive statistical profile. He moves like an NBA player, the release on his jumper is very nice (needs to work on his feet, though), he is long, he is good at jumping passing lanes. But, he also plays defense on his heels and upright (but stance is easy to fix - I always point to Gordon Hayward as an example of this) and while I think his dribble is functional enough that he should have had more responsibility at Arizona, it is not a strength (and my biggest concern). He's somewhere on the Pat Williams to OG Anunoby spectrum, but it's not clear what end he's closer to since he is pretty raw. Definitely worth a swing on, though.
13. ATL (SAC): Rasheer Flemming (range: 14-24)
I'm not convinced the shot reliably extends out to NBA three, I think he will be able to hit some from the corner but that it will take time to be a 35%+ 3-point shooter (if he ever is). His mobility is not great for a 4, but pretty good for a 5. I think he will be a reasonably switchable center who can provide some (but not amazing) spacing.
14. SAS (ATL): Derik Queen (range: 6-18)
I think I'm much lower on Queen than the consensus. These offensive hub centers, in general, can shoot. Queen isn't a good shooter, his release is really slow, his center of gravity is really high, he might be a bit undersized for an NBA center, and his playmaking isn't at the level of guys like Sengun/Sabonis. I want to like him, but I see a guy who is going to get torched defensively unless his body dramatically improves (and I'm not convinced he has great attributes) and who you wouldn't really run an offense through. Lots of the inbetween stuff and midrange shooting + footwork is really fun, especially at the college level, so I do hope he convinces me he translates at a high level. I more see a competent backup that does some interesting change-of-pace stuff but has some obvious warts.
(shades of Derrick Coleman, Julius Randle)
15. OKC (MIA): Will Riley (range: 10-25)
I think physical development will benefit no player in this draft more than Riley. He has a really weak core which means his movements can sometimes look indecisive and/or slow. But there are obvious signs of a player with some nice off-ball movement and secondary creation. I see something like Huerter as a lower end outcome. Has absolutely no "stocks" which is really concerning.
(shades of Allan Houston, Morris Peterson, Kevin Huerter)
16. MEM: Collin Murray-Boyles (range: 14-28)
Excellent connective passer with a good faceup game and a variety of finishes inside. Right now he plays like an old-school power forward, I'm especially reminded of Paul Millsap's early years in Utah. He has soft hands and a nice handle, I don't think he will ever be a plus shooter but as long as he can develop into a 30% three point shooter he should be able to stay on the court. He does disappear on offense sometimes because of how unselfish he is. Defensively he is a very wide body, very mobile, gets into the right positions, has good hands, and some ability to block a shot now and then. I think he will be a plus defender for a long time, the real question is if he can be a valuable two-way player.
(shades of: Paul Millsap, Boris Diaw)
17. MIN (DET): Ben Saraf (range: 8-26)
Really great change of direction and acceleration/deacceleration. Has a nice handle but is left hand dominant and it can show. Has good passing vision and can throw some passes that other players - including a lot of smaller point guards - can't. His shot is still a work in progress, but he has nice touch in other areas of his game and his FT% isn't abysmal (so I have faith this will come around). If his right hand and shot develop more this year there is a good chance he ends in the top 5. After watching him play for Ulm for the first time this season, it looks like his body has developed. He is faster, he is more poised with the ball in his hands, and he is one of the better athletes on the floor. Physically overwhelming against smaller guards but doesn't have the same advantage when centers can meet him at the rim, looks about two inches shorter than Isaiah Roby, so I believe that he is at least 6-5. Defensively gambles a bit too much which opens up some passing lanes and makes him prone to getting back-doored, etc. but nothing seems egregious for an 18 year old. I would like to see him look more aggressively for three point shots, but this is a symptom of playing on a real, professional team that expects him to play to his strengths rather than take threes for reps. I still think the shooting form is quite a problem and this is why I've moved Jakucionis above him.
18. WAS (MEM): Nolan Traore (range: 7-20)
Excellent acceleration/deacceleration, very good passing vision, fun floater game, great at creating separation for his shot. Struggling to shoot and finish in a professional league, but what he showed this summer was more impressive than the players below him and many above. I would NOT be surprised if he is still drafted top 6. Very clear that he has modeled his game after Tony Parker.
(shades of Tony Parker, Devin Harris)
19. BRK (MIL): Egor Demin (range: 8-23)
Egor's form on his jumper has improved quite a bit from the summer and it gives me some confidence he can be a reliable shooter. He can pass from very strange angles and has great court vision. His handle is still a bit loose and vulnerable to ball pressure. If it doesn't tighten up and he's not a primary ball handler the shot really needs to be better. Given that he has two swing skills but only needs one of the two to be an effective NBA player I'm pretty happy with him in the top 10 to late lottery.
20. MIA (GSW): Hugo Gonzales (range: 14-30)
Shot still needs improvement, sometimes relies too much on his physicality overwhelming opponents. Defensively he is long, physical, and an irritant. Offensively he has good luck drawing fouls and getting to the rim, and I believe that the jumper will continue to improve, especially because of the FT%. Not a selfish player and should offer some secondary playmaking. I think Hugo is going to go higher than the consensus, but lower than where he probably should (IMO, I still think teams in the 10-14 range should seriously consider him).
21. UTA (MIN): Drake Powell (range: 10-24)
22. ATL (LAL): Thomas Sorber (range: 13-29)
Ambidextrous when blocking shots, mobile, keeps the ball moving, physical.
(shades of: WCJ, Nene, Al Horford)
23. IND: Danny Wolf (range: 14-24)
I love Danny Wolf. The passing is obviously incredible for a center, he has a really nice stroke for his size even if the percentages are lower than they should be, and I think the handle will be functional at the NBA level, but likely not as a point-center al la Sengun, Sabonis, and Jokic. I see more of a player with some really excellent secondary creation who can take players off the dribble sometimes, too. Olynyk feels like the nearest comp stylistically, but Wolf has better physical attributes re: strength and size, but not quite the same mobility.
24. OKC (LAC): Asa Newell (range: 13-29)
Newell is consistently in the 'right place at the right time.' Good defensive instincts and mobility, provides some rim protection and is a fantastic offensive rebounder. Not selfish, keeps the ball moving. Looks like his shot will extend to three. Defensively he is very switchable, he regularly runs out to contest perimeter shooters and can effectively switch onto guards *relative to most centers.* That said, he is slightly undersized at the 5, and it remains to be seen how large of an issue that will be in the NBA. The more I watch, the more I lean toward it being a fairly major issue, so I have dropped him substantially.
25. ORL (DEN): Jase Richardson (range: 16-31)
Jase has some secondary playmaking potential and a really fast release. He can come off screens and shoot and is a very heady player.
(shades of Randy Foye, Mo Williams, Kendrick Nunn)
26. BRK (NYK): Joan Beringer (range: 22-34)
Beringer is really interesting because he is so mobile and athletic. He shows reasonably good defensive feel, but also makes up for some of his mistakes because of his athleticism and length. Offensively he is incredibly raw. He doesn't consistently set good screens, his chest passes look weird, watching him shoot free throws is physically painful. But he has reasonably soft hands and gets points on putbacks, lobs, good off-ball movement, and the occasional play where the defense breaks down and he can do a one dribble drive. Can take off from pretty far away from the rim and dunk it. One thing I will say is that he has developed quickly which gives some hope that even moderate still development with his athleticism will result in a great player. I watched him play Partizan Belgrade which is filled with ex-NBA talent (Carlik Jones, Aleksej Pokusevski, Isaac Bonga, Frank Ntilikina, Duane Washington, Sterling Brown, Brandon Davies) and his athleticism popped. He didn't look out of place among those players, either, so I think he can carve out a deep bench niche even if there isn't a ton of development. I could see him being an excellent defensive center who is really switchable and cleans up on putbacks and ally-oops - hence the Capela comparison - but there are big differences in their body types.
(shades of: Willey Cauley-Stein, Jaxson Hayes, Clint Capela)
27. BRK (HOU): Liam McNeeley (range: 19-30)
McNeeley is probably the most disappointing freshman to me. In high school he had a lot of physicality and ability to create space with a solid handle and lots of strength. In college strength was not an advantage and he couldn't create any separation. So, what happens in the NBA? Perhaps physical development will allow him to use those advantages again, and 6-8 shooters always have value. I think his percentages were low because of the physical disadvantages he had and not because he isn't a good shooter ... but man, if it does not improve he isn't an NBA player. He at least gets to the line, though, and he is an amazing FT shooter - I think these are positive signs that physical development and NBA spacing will help him, so I still have him in the first round and would consider him in the early 20s.
28. BOS: Maxime Raynaud (range: 24-38)
Has a really nice shot and moves well on the perimeter on offense. Is thin and has a narrow base, can get knocked off of drives, can't play physically with NBA-sized centers. Gives some resistance at the rim.
29. PHX (CLE): Hansen Yang (range: 12-39)
Really fun passing and footwork in the post, I think he will hit some open threes. Conditioning is not very good even though he has dramatically transformed his body.
(shades of Zydrunas Illgauskas, Isaiah Hartenstein)
30. LAC (OKC): Adou Thiero (range: 11-34)
Thiero is a really elite athlete with good size and defensive instincts. I think he has the size to play power forward and the lateral quickness, strength, and verticality to defend 1-4 credibly. If the shot becomes viable he is a really valuable roleplayer, if it doesn't, he is an impactful defender for 10 minutes a game. Given the physical tools I think the gamble starting at 15 or so is very reasonable. The real question is at what point in the draft players have shown enough ancillary skills to be comfortably better than Thiero's low-end outcome given that the shooting consistency really is a large work in progress.
31. MIN (UTA): Walter Clayton Jr. (range: 16-31)
32. BOS (WAS): Nique Clifford (range: 24-35)
33. CHA: Jamir Watkins (range: 2nd)
34. CHA (NOP): Yanic Konan-Niederhauser (range: 29-41)
35. PHI: Noah Penda (range: 23-40)
36. BRK: Bogoljub Marković (range: 24-40)
37. DET (TOR): Chaz Lanier (range: 25-40)
38. SAS: Hunter Salis (range: 2nd)
39. TOR (POR): Rocco Zikarsky (range: 27-50)
40. WAS (PHX): Ryan Kalkbrenner (range: 2nd)
41. GSW (MIA): Koby Brea (range: 2nd)
42. SAC (CHI): Sion James (range: 2nd-udfa)
43. OKC (ATL): Malique Lewis (range: 2nd-udfa)
44. UTA (DAL): Brice Williams (range: 2nd-udfa)
45. CHI (SAC): Izan Almansa (range: 2nd-udfa)
46. ORL: Tyrese Proctor (range: 2nd)
47. MIL (DET): Johni Broome (range: 2nd-udfa)
48. CLE (MIL): Eric Dixon (range: 2nd-udfa)
49. LAC (MIN): Kam Jones (range: 2nd-udfa)
50. MEM (GSW): Alex Karaban (range: 2nd)
51. NYK (MEM): RJ Luis Jr. (range: 2nd-udfa)
52. UTA (LAC): Grant Nelson (range: 2nd-udfa)
53. PHX (DEN): Alex Toohey (range: 2nd-udfa)
54. IND: Dink Pate (range: 2nd)
55. LAL: Isaac Nogues (range: 2nd-udfa)
56. MEM (HOU): Micah Peavy (range: 2nd-udfa)
57. ORL (BOS): Mark Sears (range: 2nd-udfa)
58. CLE: Vlad Goldin (range: 2nd-udfa)
59. HOU (OKC): Amari Williams (2nd-udfa)
UDFA: Tamar Bates, Kobe Sanders, Coleman Hawkins, Grant Nelson, Matthew Cleveland, Payton Sandfort, Ryan Nembhard, Lachlan Olbrich, RJ Davis, Javon Small, Ben Henshell,
Guys that interest me: Ashton Simmons, David Punch (probably 2026), Ahmad Nowell, Tyler Kropp, Darius Acuff, Larry Johnson Jr., Xavier Booker, Derrion Reed (probably 2026), Mohammed Diakite, Dame Sarr (probably 2026), Hamad Mousa (probably 2026), Jase Richardson, KJ Lewis, Jason Sanon, Mario Saint-Suprey, Dayan Nessah, Omer Mayer, Savo Drezgic, Khani Rooths, Annor Boateng, Tyler Harris, Jaland Lowe, Cameron Carr, Dailyn Swain, Jaylin Stewart, Brandin Garrison, Shon Abaev, AJ Starr
Not sure I see it: Flory Bidunga, Omaha Biliew, Kanan Carlyle, Dillon Mitchell, Johnni Broome, Motiejus Krivas
Other players who withdrew/did not enter 2024 draft that I think could be draftable: Aday Mara, Elliot Cadeau, Robbie Avila (probably 2026), Otega Oweh, Garway Dual, Wooga Poplar, Ugonna Onyenso, Noah Penda, Zacharie Perrin, Adama Bal, Andrej Stojakavic, Baye Ndongo, Kobe Brea, Sion James, Trevon Brazil
2026: AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, Nate Ament, Koa Peat, Caleb Holt, Isaiah Evans, Jayden Quaintance, Talis Soulhac, Nolan Declan Duru, Darius Adams, Daniel Jacobson, Jordan Smith, Karim Lopez, Karter Knox, Jahlil Bethea, Kwame Evans, Jasper Johnson, Michael Ayayi, Coen Carr, Donnie Freeman, Tahaad Pettiford, Kanon Catchings, Ian Jackson, Tucker DeVries, Mackenzi Mgbako, Zvonimir Ivisic, Tomislav Ivisic, Tre Donaldson, Milan Momcilovic, Jaxson Robinson, Yaxel Landeborg, Tyon Grant-Foster, Andrej Stojakavic, DJ Wagner, JT Toppin, Sergio de Larrea, Mario Saint-Suprey, Bennett Stirtz, Baba Miller, Joson Sanon, Kylan Boswell, Jarin Stevenson, Aaron Bradshaw, Wesley Cardet Jr., Boogie Fland, Darrion Williams, Milos Uzan, Alex Condon, Otega Oweh, Miles Byrd, LaBaron Philon, Thierry Darlan, Michael Ruzic, Neoklis Avdalas, Mouhamed Faye
I think I am more a believer in the jumper than the consensus. From the midrange he has historically been consistent off the dribble, on the move, backing down, etc. and it looks projectable to three to me. So far in college that has not been the case, but I think part of this is spacing. He might not be as consistent from three because of his high release, but I think he will have a degree of consistency from the midrange that means he will generate offensive value very few players can from that portion of the court. Excellent midrange scorers do have value in the league, especially if they generate freethrows on those shots (DeRozan, Durant, Booker, Ingram, Middleton, etc.). He has decent passing vision, certainly above average for a power forward, has some on-ball creation potential, etc. etc. I love Kirilenko, but I think that comparison is selling Flagg's scoring and aggressiveness on offense short. Defensively he has good anticipation, fast hands, isn't afraid of physicality, etc. I think he will be a plus shotblocker for his position, but he's not going to be like Kirilenko in that regard, either. I think he is and will be more of a 4 than a 3, and that he will cause more matchup problems from there, anyway.
(shades of: Scottie Pippen, Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes)
2. SAS: Dylan Harper (range: 2)
Harper has looked much better in college than he did in high school. He already had a tremendous ability to slither through a defense, but in college his physical strength and speed have become an advantage as his body develops. Harper presses much less, he moves well off ball, he has decent passing vision, and he is fantastic at getting to the rim in a league where the paint is packed and instead of having to beat one defender you usually have to beat two. He can contort himself to finish, is a master of hitting layups off the glass at odd angles, etc. I have confidence his shot will improve, but right now there is a bit of a hitch that slows down his release and has resulted in some inconsistency (that isn't there when he has time from the line).
(shades of: James Harden w/less passing)
3. PHI: Ace Bailey (range: 3-11)
I'm not fully convinced on Bailey, but big players who can shoot (and he can do that) always have value. The handle is suspect, his shot selection is sometimes alarmingly bad ... but he just makes them from all over. I could see him sliding down over the course of the season if other areas don't improve, but I understand the allure of Bailey as a (as of this moment) consensus top-5 player. Defensively extremely disruptive, great footwork and anticipation at times, plays extremely hard. Creates transition opportunities.
(shades of: Michael Porter Jr., Josh Howard [defense], Rashard Lewis)
4. CHA: VJ Edgecombe (range: 4-9)
I think Edgecombe's shooting has come along faster than anticipated. He does not have the fastest release, but I do think he will be at least an average shooter through his career. Explosive athlete, but very basic ball handling which limits his upside a bit as he won't be a lead guard. But, as a straight line driver he is incredibly quick and should be very good next to a big lead guard like Cade or LaMelo. His defensive upside is very nice. I think he will fit into the Melton/Suggs/White role, it is just a question of what caliber player he will be there.
(shades of: De'Anthony Melton, Derrick White)
5. UTA: Tre Johnson (range: 3-7)
Johnson is a scoring machine, he hits at every level, and has a good enough handle to self-create. He is also fantastic in off-ball movement. Defensively he gives effort, but doesn't seem to be anything better than average on that end, rebounding numbers are poor for his size, but need to watch a bit more and see if some of that is scheme. He plays with an edge I like.
(shades of: Bennedict Mathurin, Zach LaVine (less athletic), Ray Allen (less athletic))
6. WAS: Kon Kneuppel (range: 3-12)
Shoots the heck out of the ball, on the move, off screens, seeing less off the dribble. Very physical, reminds me of a guard version of Bojan Bogdanovic. Has *some* secondary creation, but he is really a shoot it or move it player.
(shades of: Bojan Bogdanovic, Quentin Richardson)
7. NOP: Jeremiah Fears (range: 5-16)
Fears is really fun to watch, extremely quick acceleration with decent vision and great instincts for when to pull up/dribble out/pressure the rim. His FT% is excellent and I think the shot is some minor tweaks away from being really, really good. Concerns are size and the ability to switch defensively at the NBA level, and you also hope that he gets assists at a higher volume, but he's good enough he should and will be a lottery pick.
(shades of Jeff Teague, Devin Harris, Damian Lillard)
8. BRK: Khaman Maluach (range: 6-13)
Maluach is very fluid with fantastic size. He has the potential to be a very good defensive anchor. He still doesn't have the best hands, and I think there are some limitations there he won't overcome. I also don't believe in the shot at all. That said he is massive, he did not look out of place athletically or size wise matched up with Anthony Davis. I'm not sure I'll have him in the lottery at the end of the year, but I fully expect him to go 10-20 and be in that Walker Kessler/Mitchell Robinson mold of effective, "mostly" one way players who have good physicality. Maluach is a bit bigger, and I think no less mobile, so he may be a step up as a prospect (but not a huge one, IMO).
9. TOR: Cedric Coward (range: ?)
Great shooter wide open, physical. Played power forward in the Big Sky and then transitioned to playing wing at Washington State. Not super explosive, does not have amazing handles, but can hit midrange shots and finish through contact. I have not been able to watch a ton of footage of him, but what I've seen is at least interesting and the 10-20 range feels like a safe bet.
10. HOU (PHX): Kasparas Jakucionis (range: 6-15)
In international play I thought Jakucionis was not as impressive as Saraf or Traore, but in general he made the right plays and could hit open threes or take advantage of a bent defense. I've done my first watch at the NCAA level (against Tennessee) and he looks to be a reliable shooter and secondary playmaker. He did struggle with ball pressure, but navigated the pnr well. Illinois also runs a ton of screens for him, but they never empty out the side so that he has a chance to get to the rim. He's not consistently turning the corner, but a more advantageous system or spread court would help him.
11. POR: Noa Essengue (range: 8-18)
Extremely mobile for his size with nice ability to attack a bent defense. Offensively he moves well off ball and is active, but can get bumped off his spots. The jumper has improved over the year, but I think it is going to take a few seasons before he is aa 35%+ shooter from range. Defensively he often looks gassed and sometimes out of position but he is capable of covering a lot of ground and switching onto smaller defenders. I think some of what I've seen defensively was from the dynamics of youth competitions where he was asked to carry a massive offensive burden. This season I see less of it when I watch, I assume because of role. It's something to keep an eye on. I am worried that lots of prospects in this range and above have at least one elite skill and Essengue does not, just lots of things he is pretty decent at.
12. CHI: Carter Bryant (range: 5-17)
Bryant has the aesthetics of an NBA player but an unimpressive statistical profile. He moves like an NBA player, the release on his jumper is very nice (needs to work on his feet, though), he is long, he is good at jumping passing lanes. But, he also plays defense on his heels and upright (but stance is easy to fix - I always point to Gordon Hayward as an example of this) and while I think his dribble is functional enough that he should have had more responsibility at Arizona, it is not a strength (and my biggest concern). He's somewhere on the Pat Williams to OG Anunoby spectrum, but it's not clear what end he's closer to since he is pretty raw. Definitely worth a swing on, though.
13. ATL (SAC): Rasheer Flemming (range: 14-24)
I'm not convinced the shot reliably extends out to NBA three, I think he will be able to hit some from the corner but that it will take time to be a 35%+ 3-point shooter (if he ever is). His mobility is not great for a 4, but pretty good for a 5. I think he will be a reasonably switchable center who can provide some (but not amazing) spacing.
14. SAS (ATL): Derik Queen (range: 6-18)
I think I'm much lower on Queen than the consensus. These offensive hub centers, in general, can shoot. Queen isn't a good shooter, his release is really slow, his center of gravity is really high, he might be a bit undersized for an NBA center, and his playmaking isn't at the level of guys like Sengun/Sabonis. I want to like him, but I see a guy who is going to get torched defensively unless his body dramatically improves (and I'm not convinced he has great attributes) and who you wouldn't really run an offense through. Lots of the inbetween stuff and midrange shooting + footwork is really fun, especially at the college level, so I do hope he convinces me he translates at a high level. I more see a competent backup that does some interesting change-of-pace stuff but has some obvious warts.
(shades of Derrick Coleman, Julius Randle)
15. OKC (MIA): Will Riley (range: 10-25)
I think physical development will benefit no player in this draft more than Riley. He has a really weak core which means his movements can sometimes look indecisive and/or slow. But there are obvious signs of a player with some nice off-ball movement and secondary creation. I see something like Huerter as a lower end outcome. Has absolutely no "stocks" which is really concerning.
(shades of Allan Houston, Morris Peterson, Kevin Huerter)
16. MEM: Collin Murray-Boyles (range: 14-28)
Excellent connective passer with a good faceup game and a variety of finishes inside. Right now he plays like an old-school power forward, I'm especially reminded of Paul Millsap's early years in Utah. He has soft hands and a nice handle, I don't think he will ever be a plus shooter but as long as he can develop into a 30% three point shooter he should be able to stay on the court. He does disappear on offense sometimes because of how unselfish he is. Defensively he is a very wide body, very mobile, gets into the right positions, has good hands, and some ability to block a shot now and then. I think he will be a plus defender for a long time, the real question is if he can be a valuable two-way player.
(shades of: Paul Millsap, Boris Diaw)
17. MIN (DET): Ben Saraf (range: 8-26)
Really great change of direction and acceleration/deacceleration. Has a nice handle but is left hand dominant and it can show. Has good passing vision and can throw some passes that other players - including a lot of smaller point guards - can't. His shot is still a work in progress, but he has nice touch in other areas of his game and his FT% isn't abysmal (so I have faith this will come around). If his right hand and shot develop more this year there is a good chance he ends in the top 5. After watching him play for Ulm for the first time this season, it looks like his body has developed. He is faster, he is more poised with the ball in his hands, and he is one of the better athletes on the floor. Physically overwhelming against smaller guards but doesn't have the same advantage when centers can meet him at the rim, looks about two inches shorter than Isaiah Roby, so I believe that he is at least 6-5. Defensively gambles a bit too much which opens up some passing lanes and makes him prone to getting back-doored, etc. but nothing seems egregious for an 18 year old. I would like to see him look more aggressively for three point shots, but this is a symptom of playing on a real, professional team that expects him to play to his strengths rather than take threes for reps. I still think the shooting form is quite a problem and this is why I've moved Jakucionis above him.
18. WAS (MEM): Nolan Traore (range: 7-20)
Excellent acceleration/deacceleration, very good passing vision, fun floater game, great at creating separation for his shot. Struggling to shoot and finish in a professional league, but what he showed this summer was more impressive than the players below him and many above. I would NOT be surprised if he is still drafted top 6. Very clear that he has modeled his game after Tony Parker.
(shades of Tony Parker, Devin Harris)
19. BRK (MIL): Egor Demin (range: 8-23)
Egor's form on his jumper has improved quite a bit from the summer and it gives me some confidence he can be a reliable shooter. He can pass from very strange angles and has great court vision. His handle is still a bit loose and vulnerable to ball pressure. If it doesn't tighten up and he's not a primary ball handler the shot really needs to be better. Given that he has two swing skills but only needs one of the two to be an effective NBA player I'm pretty happy with him in the top 10 to late lottery.
20. MIA (GSW): Hugo Gonzales (range: 14-30)
Shot still needs improvement, sometimes relies too much on his physicality overwhelming opponents. Defensively he is long, physical, and an irritant. Offensively he has good luck drawing fouls and getting to the rim, and I believe that the jumper will continue to improve, especially because of the FT%. Not a selfish player and should offer some secondary playmaking. I think Hugo is going to go higher than the consensus, but lower than where he probably should (IMO, I still think teams in the 10-14 range should seriously consider him).
21. UTA (MIN): Drake Powell (range: 10-24)
22. ATL (LAL): Thomas Sorber (range: 13-29)
Ambidextrous when blocking shots, mobile, keeps the ball moving, physical.
(shades of: WCJ, Nene, Al Horford)
23. IND: Danny Wolf (range: 14-24)
I love Danny Wolf. The passing is obviously incredible for a center, he has a really nice stroke for his size even if the percentages are lower than they should be, and I think the handle will be functional at the NBA level, but likely not as a point-center al la Sengun, Sabonis, and Jokic. I see more of a player with some really excellent secondary creation who can take players off the dribble sometimes, too. Olynyk feels like the nearest comp stylistically, but Wolf has better physical attributes re: strength and size, but not quite the same mobility.
24. OKC (LAC): Asa Newell (range: 13-29)
Newell is consistently in the 'right place at the right time.' Good defensive instincts and mobility, provides some rim protection and is a fantastic offensive rebounder. Not selfish, keeps the ball moving. Looks like his shot will extend to three. Defensively he is very switchable, he regularly runs out to contest perimeter shooters and can effectively switch onto guards *relative to most centers.* That said, he is slightly undersized at the 5, and it remains to be seen how large of an issue that will be in the NBA. The more I watch, the more I lean toward it being a fairly major issue, so I have dropped him substantially.
25. ORL (DEN): Jase Richardson (range: 16-31)
Jase has some secondary playmaking potential and a really fast release. He can come off screens and shoot and is a very heady player.
(shades of Randy Foye, Mo Williams, Kendrick Nunn)
26. BRK (NYK): Joan Beringer (range: 22-34)
Beringer is really interesting because he is so mobile and athletic. He shows reasonably good defensive feel, but also makes up for some of his mistakes because of his athleticism and length. Offensively he is incredibly raw. He doesn't consistently set good screens, his chest passes look weird, watching him shoot free throws is physically painful. But he has reasonably soft hands and gets points on putbacks, lobs, good off-ball movement, and the occasional play where the defense breaks down and he can do a one dribble drive. Can take off from pretty far away from the rim and dunk it. One thing I will say is that he has developed quickly which gives some hope that even moderate still development with his athleticism will result in a great player. I watched him play Partizan Belgrade which is filled with ex-NBA talent (Carlik Jones, Aleksej Pokusevski, Isaac Bonga, Frank Ntilikina, Duane Washington, Sterling Brown, Brandon Davies) and his athleticism popped. He didn't look out of place among those players, either, so I think he can carve out a deep bench niche even if there isn't a ton of development. I could see him being an excellent defensive center who is really switchable and cleans up on putbacks and ally-oops - hence the Capela comparison - but there are big differences in their body types.
(shades of: Willey Cauley-Stein, Jaxson Hayes, Clint Capela)
27. BRK (HOU): Liam McNeeley (range: 19-30)
McNeeley is probably the most disappointing freshman to me. In high school he had a lot of physicality and ability to create space with a solid handle and lots of strength. In college strength was not an advantage and he couldn't create any separation. So, what happens in the NBA? Perhaps physical development will allow him to use those advantages again, and 6-8 shooters always have value. I think his percentages were low because of the physical disadvantages he had and not because he isn't a good shooter ... but man, if it does not improve he isn't an NBA player. He at least gets to the line, though, and he is an amazing FT shooter - I think these are positive signs that physical development and NBA spacing will help him, so I still have him in the first round and would consider him in the early 20s.
28. BOS: Maxime Raynaud (range: 24-38)
Has a really nice shot and moves well on the perimeter on offense. Is thin and has a narrow base, can get knocked off of drives, can't play physically with NBA-sized centers. Gives some resistance at the rim.
29. PHX (CLE): Hansen Yang (range: 12-39)
Really fun passing and footwork in the post, I think he will hit some open threes. Conditioning is not very good even though he has dramatically transformed his body.
(shades of Zydrunas Illgauskas, Isaiah Hartenstein)
30. LAC (OKC): Adou Thiero (range: 11-34)
Thiero is a really elite athlete with good size and defensive instincts. I think he has the size to play power forward and the lateral quickness, strength, and verticality to defend 1-4 credibly. If the shot becomes viable he is a really valuable roleplayer, if it doesn't, he is an impactful defender for 10 minutes a game. Given the physical tools I think the gamble starting at 15 or so is very reasonable. The real question is at what point in the draft players have shown enough ancillary skills to be comfortably better than Thiero's low-end outcome given that the shooting consistency really is a large work in progress.
31. MIN (UTA): Walter Clayton Jr. (range: 16-31)
32. BOS (WAS): Nique Clifford (range: 24-35)
33. CHA: Jamir Watkins (range: 2nd)
34. CHA (NOP): Yanic Konan-Niederhauser (range: 29-41)
35. PHI: Noah Penda (range: 23-40)
36. BRK: Bogoljub Marković (range: 24-40)
37. DET (TOR): Chaz Lanier (range: 25-40)
38. SAS: Hunter Salis (range: 2nd)
39. TOR (POR): Rocco Zikarsky (range: 27-50)
40. WAS (PHX): Ryan Kalkbrenner (range: 2nd)
41. GSW (MIA): Koby Brea (range: 2nd)
42. SAC (CHI): Sion James (range: 2nd-udfa)
43. OKC (ATL): Malique Lewis (range: 2nd-udfa)
44. UTA (DAL): Brice Williams (range: 2nd-udfa)
45. CHI (SAC): Izan Almansa (range: 2nd-udfa)
46. ORL: Tyrese Proctor (range: 2nd)
47. MIL (DET): Johni Broome (range: 2nd-udfa)
48. CLE (MIL): Eric Dixon (range: 2nd-udfa)
49. LAC (MIN): Kam Jones (range: 2nd-udfa)
50. MEM (GSW): Alex Karaban (range: 2nd)
51. NYK (MEM): RJ Luis Jr. (range: 2nd-udfa)
52. UTA (LAC): Grant Nelson (range: 2nd-udfa)
53. PHX (DEN): Alex Toohey (range: 2nd-udfa)
54. IND: Dink Pate (range: 2nd)
55. LAL: Isaac Nogues (range: 2nd-udfa)
56. MEM (HOU): Micah Peavy (range: 2nd-udfa)
57. ORL (BOS): Mark Sears (range: 2nd-udfa)
58. CLE: Vlad Goldin (range: 2nd-udfa)
59. HOU (OKC): Amari Williams (2nd-udfa)
UDFA: Tamar Bates, Kobe Sanders, Coleman Hawkins, Grant Nelson, Matthew Cleveland, Payton Sandfort, Ryan Nembhard, Lachlan Olbrich, RJ Davis, Javon Small, Ben Henshell,
Guys that interest me: Ashton Simmons, David Punch (probably 2026), Ahmad Nowell, Tyler Kropp, Darius Acuff, Larry Johnson Jr., Xavier Booker, Derrion Reed (probably 2026), Mohammed Diakite, Dame Sarr (probably 2026), Hamad Mousa (probably 2026), Jase Richardson, KJ Lewis, Jason Sanon, Mario Saint-Suprey, Dayan Nessah, Omer Mayer, Savo Drezgic, Khani Rooths, Annor Boateng, Tyler Harris, Jaland Lowe, Cameron Carr, Dailyn Swain, Jaylin Stewart, Brandin Garrison, Shon Abaev, AJ Starr
Not sure I see it: Flory Bidunga, Omaha Biliew, Kanan Carlyle, Dillon Mitchell, Johnni Broome, Motiejus Krivas
Other players who withdrew/did not enter 2024 draft that I think could be draftable: Aday Mara, Elliot Cadeau, Robbie Avila (probably 2026), Otega Oweh, Garway Dual, Wooga Poplar, Ugonna Onyenso, Noah Penda, Zacharie Perrin, Adama Bal, Andrej Stojakavic, Baye Ndongo, Kobe Brea, Sion James, Trevon Brazil
2026: AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, Nate Ament, Koa Peat, Caleb Holt, Isaiah Evans, Jayden Quaintance, Talis Soulhac, Nolan Declan Duru, Darius Adams, Daniel Jacobson, Jordan Smith, Karim Lopez, Karter Knox, Jahlil Bethea, Kwame Evans, Jasper Johnson, Michael Ayayi, Coen Carr, Donnie Freeman, Tahaad Pettiford, Kanon Catchings, Ian Jackson, Tucker DeVries, Mackenzi Mgbako, Zvonimir Ivisic, Tomislav Ivisic, Tre Donaldson, Milan Momcilovic, Jaxson Robinson, Yaxel Landeborg, Tyon Grant-Foster, Andrej Stojakavic, DJ Wagner, JT Toppin, Sergio de Larrea, Mario Saint-Suprey, Bennett Stirtz, Baba Miller, Joson Sanon, Kylan Boswell, Jarin Stevenson, Aaron Bradshaw, Wesley Cardet Jr., Boogie Fland, Darrion Williams, Milos Uzan, Alex Condon, Otega Oweh, Miles Byrd, LaBaron Philon, Thierry Darlan, Michael Ruzic, Neoklis Avdalas, Mouhamed Faye