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76ciology’s 2025 Mock Draft

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76ciology’s 2025 Mock Draft

Posted: Fri May 9, 2025 4:00 pm
by 76ciology
My Top 15:
1. Cooper Flagg
2. Dylan Harper
3. Jakucionis
4. Khaman Maluach
5. Tre Johnson
6. Kon Knueppel
7. VJ Edgecombe
8. Jase Richardson
9. Ace Bailey
10. Jeremiah Fears
11. CMB
12. Queen
13. Asa Newell
14. Noah Essengue
15. Carter Bryant

Notes:
- The more I watch the playoffs, the more I’m impressed with Jakucionis, he has the right flavor of scoring, shot creation and defense for NBA playoffs.
- I have Maluach this high because he’s NBA-ready right now as a lob threat, rim protector and rebounder that can play against small or big line-ups while still offers one of the highest ceilings in the class.
- Tre Johnson edges out Knueppel for me because he has more alpha potential, but I still like KK’s IQ and 2 way skillset.
- I dropped Edgecombe due to limitations as a creator and concerns about his size.
- Jase Richardson is only 18.7 on draft night and already a productive 2 way guard
- I kept Ace Bailey and Jeremiah Fears in the top 10 because of their upside, they fit highly valued NBA archetypes even if the current numbers aren’t fully there yet.
- CMB (11th) didn’t make my top 10 because of his limitations to being just a superb winning role player
- I have Derick Queen(12th) due to the growing double big trend; he might end up being more playable at the 4 with a defensive anchor 5.
- Asa Newell (13th) has concerning defensive metrics that raise red flags. But I like his lob threat and upside as a shooter on offense.
- I like Essengue (14th) and Carter Bryant (15th), but both are more long-term projects with upside limited as 3&D wings

Re: 76ciology’s 2025 Mock Draft

Posted: Fri May 30, 2025 8:49 am
by 76ciology
My Top 15 (May 31):

High % to be stars
1. Cooper Flagg
2. Dylan Harper

Shotcreators
3. Jakucionis
4. Tre Johnson

Analytic Darlings
5. Kon Knueppel
6. CMB
7. Edgecombe

Upside play
8. Ace Bailey
9. Jeremiah Fears
10. Khaman Maluach
11. Egor Denim

2 way role players with upside
12. Carter Bryant
13. Noa Essengue

2 way role players
14. Rasheer Flemming
15. Thomas Sorber

Notes:
- I’m sticking with Kasparas at third overall. After a long and thoughtful discussion on the 76ers board, I came away convinced he’s the right pick. Pre-injury, he had a 9.9 BPM and was being projected in the top 3–5. The major difference post-injury was his 3PT shooting dropping from .40 to .25, but I’m buying his shot long-term. His shooting profile supports it.. an .85 FT%, .36 from stepback threes, and overall shooting mechanics that suggest the slump isn’t a red flag.

He also fits today’s playoff environment perfectly.. a big guard who can handle, shoot, defend, and make plays. He ended the season with a .58 TS%, .50 3PTr, and .50 FTr. Add to that his 98th percentile PnR volume, 30% half-court rim frequency at over 60% FG%, and you’ve got the profile of an efficient, scalable scorer with IQ, motor, and positional size.

- I have Knueppel, CMB, and Edgecombe ranked 5th, 6th, and 7th. All three are analytical standouts, but their lack of high-end shot creation limits their overall upside compared to the two players above them. I ordered them based on relative shot creation ability, Knueppel showing the most promise in that area, followed by CMB, then Edgecombe.

- I have Ace Bailey at 8th. His metrics are poor across the board. He’s an inefficient, high-usage scorer with just a 53 TS% and 8 AST%. I also think his defense is overstated.. his 109 DRTG and .8 DBPM don’t support the hype. But I would ranked him highest for pure upside play.

- Second for upside play would be Jeremiah Fears. His archetype is appealing, shifty guard with on-ball juice.. but I think he’s tracking more like Tre Mann or James Bouknight due to his inefficiency. Still, I have him 9th because archetype matters, and guards like him can “Colin Sexton” their way into long NBA careers if given opportunity.

- Third on upside play would be Maluach from 4th to 10th. Watching the tape, it’s clear he’s still raw. Right now, he’s dominating off sheer length and athleticism, but when faced with opponents who understand positioning and can match him physically, his lack of polish is exposed.

- Last on my upside play would be Egor Demin I usually fade non-shooting guards, but I’m buying his upside.

- I have Carter Bryant and Noa ranked as 3&D prospects I weighted shooting the highest between them.. Bryant is clearly the better shooter than Noa.

- Flemming and Sorber round out my top 15. I see both as high-floor, low-ceiling guys, two-way contributors who likely top out as solid role players but still hold value on winning teams.

Re: 76ciology’s 2025 Mock Draft

Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2025 7:30 am
by 76ciology
My Top 15 (June 25):

High % to be stars
1. Cooper Flagg
2. Dylan Harper

Shotcreators
3. Jakucionis
4. VJ Edgecombe
5. Tre Johnson
6. Jeremiah Fears

Analytic Darlings
7. Kon Kneuppel
8. CMB

Upside Play
9. Ace Bailey
10. Khaman Maluach
11. Egor Denim

2 way role players with upside
12. Carter Bryant
13. Noa Essengue

2 way role players
14. Rasheer Flemming
15. Thomas Sorber

High on Kasparas because

Spoiler:
I’m sticking with Kasparas at third overall. After a long and thoughtful discussion on the 76ers board, I came away convinced he’s the right pick. Pre-injury, he had a 9.9 BPM and was being projected in the top 3–5. The major difference post-injury was his 3PT shooting dropping from .40 to .25, but I’m buying his shot long-term. His shooting profile supports it.. an .85 FT%, .36 from stepback threes, and overall shooting mechanics that suggest the slump isn’t a red flag.

He also fits today’s playoff environment perfectly.. a big guard who can handle, shoot, defend, and make plays. He ended the season with a .58 TS%, .50 3PTr, and .50 FTr. Add to that his 98th percentile PnR volume, 30% half-court rim frequency at over 60% FG%, and you’ve got the profile of an efficient, scalable scorer with IQ, motor, and positional size.


Higher on VJ because of
Spoiler:
the “OKC lead guard archetype”, built around spamming the 1-5 PnR formula. These guards thrive against deep drop coverage that respects their blow-by speed. They can punish it with a slightly contested midrange pull up or attack the big if he plays at the level of the screen.

What sets them apart is that they all play bigger than their listed size, whether through length or explosive athleticism, making them elite finishers once they get into the paint. Think Westbrook, Oladipo, and SGA.

Vj also has basic handles that he can work and develop, a good shooting profile and high release where he might improve his on ball shotcreation like a lot of these 2 way high motor players

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Why VJ over Tre
Spoiler:
Two main issues for me:

1. Swing Skills

When it comes to swing skills for star potential, VJ has a stronger base.

He’s shown flashes of shot creation off the dribble, even with basic handles. He’s got a quick first step, explosive athleticism, strong C&S 3pt%, solid FT%, and encouraging floater %. His HC rim freq is 2x higher than Tre’s.

He’s often compared to Melton or Zhaire, but context matters, he played a primary or secondary scoring role even alongside NBA guys like Ayton, Hield, and Gordon in Olympic qualifiers. That suggests more than just a 3&D profile. There are clear signs he can be above average in the key swing areas.

Tre, on the other hand, is starting from a much lower baseline. His HC rim freq, FT rate as an alpha, rebounding, and defense are all weak. Not 4s or 5s out of 10, more like 1s or 2s. He avoids contact, settles for jumpers, and doesn’t stand out on D or the boards. Yes, he’s an elite shooting prospect, but in other areas, even reaching average is a big leap.

With VJ, you can’t say he’s one of the worst creators in this class. With Tre, you can argue he’s near the bottom in HC rim pressure, FT drawing as an alpha, rebounding, and defense. VJ is clearly further along in the swing skills that usually separate role players from stars.

Adding to that, Pelton’s projection model, which adjusts for level of competition and includes performance pre-college, ranked Kneuppel and VJ very high. The reason? Their foundational skills showed clear signs even before the NCAA. For example, Kon showed strong indicators in the EYBL circuit. I’d assume it also factors Edgecombe role and #s in the olympic qualifiers. In contrast, the things we want to believe about Tre’s upside, like improvement as a rim attacker, being a foul merchant like most alpha perimeter scorers, decent rebounder or defender, are more projection than proof. It’s more imagined than real.

2. Projected role

If Tre’s going to be average at best on D and the glass, then he has to carry your offense as a clear #1. And that level isn’t Oladipo, it’s SGA, Steph, Jokic, Wembanyama, Embiid, Giannis, Luka, prime Harden, Ant. Top 1% of the league scorers.

That kind of leap is a lot to bet on, especially with a prospect like Tre or even Harper or VJ. I’d be more open to taking that swing if we were talking about Flagg. The distance Tre has to cover from where he is to being that guy is massive.

With VJ, the path to becoming a 20-25 PPG two-way guard is more grounded. The tools are there, he just needs refinement and reps.

Bottom line:
Tre’s ceiling depends on too many leaps in low-baseline areas. VJ’s case is built on traits that are already flashing at real levels of competition.


Higher on Fears because
Spoiler:
Jeremiah Fears posted a 56 TS%, 32% 3P rate, 51.8 FTr, 37% halfcourt rim frequency, and 85% from the line, lowkey a better alpha scoring profile than Tre. 28.6 ast% with 31% usg. And with a 3.1 STL% on top of all that, he’s a pretty strong bet if you want an alpha scorer.


Lower on Kon because
Spoiler:
What worries me about Kon is that he’s not the type of player who has a clear length or athleticism advantage over his defender. Players that fits that description often resemble guards such as Jalen Brunson or Kyrie Irving, guys who can run the 1-5 PnR and force bigs into drop coverage leading to a lot of good looks at the middy, or else blow right by them. But I don’t think Kon has that kind of burst. If a big like Nic Claxton or Gobert plays up at the level of the screen, I doubt Kon can consistently beat them off the dribble. That or they have a really deep bag.

There’s also the growing trend of guards getting bigger, many now stand around 6’4” to 6’6”. While Kon might be able to bully some of them, I don’t think he’ll have that edge against most. And when it comes to athletic 3&D wings? That might be his kryptonite. Did you remember how prime Ben Simmons can shut down Luka?

Now, some might ask.. “Why can Luka or Jokic succeed then?” Well, Luka is essentially a power forward who can run point, he’s 6’8” with a 7’ wingspan, which is incredibly rare, especially for a European prospect. That size is almost similar to LeBron. Jokic is a center with legitimate playmaking skills and great length. That kind of size-skill combination is hard to replicate.

This also helps explain why Kon looked so good in EYBL. If you watch the tape, he played like a version of Kevin Love with point guard skills or atleast like a little shorter version of Luka. The question is.. does he have the same size-skill advantage relative to the competition in the NBA?

There’s a long-standing perception that Duke often builds teams in a way that inflates the performance of their top recruits. A familiar example is Jahlil Okafor, he looked dominant in college, but that didn’t carry over to the next level.

In a similar way, I think you’d have to carefully construct a team around Kneuppel if you want him to overperform. That might mean letting him run the offense as your 220lbs lead guard, surrounding him with wings who can punish mismatches and space the floor, plus a reliable lob threat to open up pressure in the paint.
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