2026 Draft Stuff
Posted: Wed Jul 2, 2025 1:40 am
1. WAS: AJ Dybantsa (shades of: peak Pascal Siakam, Jaylen Brown, Rudy Gay) [range: 1-2]
AJ takes really long strides and is physically explosive, but a lot of his dribble moves are extremely slow. A lot of this is because he always takes long strides, even when doing things like spin-moves, etc., but that results in no leverage for moves that require smaller movements. All of that to say: an NBA team should be able to do a lot with his dribble drive game. They will tighten up the handle and clear up some of the awkward movement. What is promising, is that his shot is looking smoother as the season goes on. It is not exactly amazing, but he should not be a non-factor from three. Defensively he has a lot of tools, but there are some decision-making issues to work through. In the second half of the season his shot has improved, and he is correcting some of the movement issues I identified above. These are good signs that further development will help him maximize the potential of his frame and skillset.
2. UTA: Darryn Peterson (shades of: Bradley Beal, Ray Allen) [range: 1-3]
To start the season he was not explosive at all, he just looked like a really skilled scoring guard. This was confusing because in high school he was explosive and good as a lead guard. Now we are seeing some of the explosiveness come back - though he really is not playing as their lead guard. His shot is gorgeous: repeatable, fast, consistent. He can score from three levels, he has deceptive handles and body movements, he changes speed and direction at the right time, etc. He isn't selfish, he is always directing traffic for his team on and off-ball. Defensively he has good anticipation and lateral speed, he should be a plus on that end as a guard. I love him, I am convinced he is a star. Later season thoughts: wow, that was not a good season. There are obviously large injury concerns and over time his facilitation became worse. I still think there is more on-ball creation there, but I can see Peterson sliding given how bad his Freshman season was. I think there is a reasonably chance he slides to closer to 7, but I will be keeping him top-4 in my mock. I am still bullish on the upside, but there is risk here.
3. MEM: Cameron Boozer (shades of: Kevin Love, old Blake Griffin, Alperin Sengun) [range: 1-3]
Boozer isn't an explosive athlete, he isn't fluid like modern power forwards, but he is just an incredibly good basketball player. At the power forward position he is a good passer who can act as an offensive hub. He is often directing his teammates on defense, as well. In almost every situation he makes the right decision. Physically he is strong, an excellent rebounder, and I think he is mobile enough to not be a liability defensively. If he can physically play center that will increase his value in the NBA - I think he is strong enough, but he can't really provide rim protection. I buy that he will be a functional three point shooter in the NBA, and over time he may even be very good. I don't buy that he will step in and shoot 40% from 3 or anything close to that in his first few years, nor do I think he is going to create a lot of shots for himself on the perimeter (he will need them created). Whoever drafts him is getting an excellent player, but he might require some work to build the best possible team around (e.g., he would be fantastic next to Jaren Jackson or Alex Sarr).
4. CHI: Caleb Wilson (shades of: Joe Smith + passing, early career Pascal Siakam) [range: 2-4]
Offensively is a nice passer with a good handle for his size - though it could stand to tighten up a bit if he is going to be more of an on-ball player. I think that is going to be important, as I doubt he becomes a major threat as a shooter. From the midrange his jumper looks okay, so I do think it will project out over time, but he will be his most impactful if he can score off of drives consistently (I suspect this is the swing skill that determines if he is a good roleplayer, or something more). Defensively he is extremely mobile, and is a tenacious rebounder. He can switch onto guards and UNC will sometimes have him hound whoever is bringing the ball down the court. I think this has confused his role a bit on defense, though, as he tends to get lost (and I think part of this is the complexity of his role). Another concerning thing is that he bites on almost every pumpfake. I am pretty high on Wilson, but he is riskier than the top 3. I do think he is the perfect personality for Memphis, though.
5. LAC (IND): Keaton Wagler (shades of: Steve Smith, Mike Miller) [range: 5-8]
Wagler is an amazing shooter off the bounce or in spot up situations. He has some physicality when driving that allows him to finish, and he has a better handle than a lot of players who are primarily shooters (e.g., Klay Thompson). Lots of people are high on his court vision and see him as a pure point guard, but I think most of his reads are pretty basic and he doesn't have an incredibly advanced handle to reliably break down a defense at this point. I see him more in the mold of shooting guards who offer very nice secondary creation and who can hit a variety of shots off the dribble or on the move. EDIT: in the second half of the season he is operating much more as the primary facilitator at Illinois. The returns are pretty promising, he is showing more ability to break down a defense and has more opportunities to demonstrate that he is a plus passer. I am not buying that he is elite, but I do think there is some potential in there for a lead guard which puts him firmly above Kingston Flemings for me (who is just smaller).
6. BRK: Darius Acuff (shades of: Deron Williams, Stephon Marbury, Jarret Jack) [range: 5-8]
I love watching Acuff. Offensively he settles his team and dictates pace. He can create his own shot on the perimeter or in the midrange, and he is a fairly physical finisher (though not some above-the-rim savant like Rose). I think he is going to have a lot of value as a true point guard, and I love seeing someone in that archetype coming into the NBA. Defensively he doesn't generate steals and I don't think he is particularly aware despite his clear basketball IQ on offense.
7. SAC: Mikel Brown Jr (shades of: LaMelo Ball, Immanuel Quickley) [range: 5-8]
At his best can dictate the pace of play on offense. He takes a bit too many off-the-dribble threes for my tastes, but he isn't a complete loose canon with his shot selection and does create opportunities for others by getting into the lane and keeping a live dribble. He isn't so fast that he is turning the corner on everyone, but he can attack a defense. I think he will be a pretty big threat from three even if the percentages could be better with improved shot selection. Defensively he has pretty fast hands and can get some nice poke-aways, but I don't think he will be an asset on that end. I am always looking for guard who, when they play, really dictate the pace of the game. Brown can do that pretty well, so I think there is quite a bit of upside here.
8. ATL (NOP): Kingston Flemings (shades of: Monta Ellis) [range: 7-13]
I am not as high on him as consensus. He has a really nice shooting stroke, is lightening quick and not selfish. Defensively he competes but I think he will get physically bullied at the next level a bit and he has a narrow frame. I don't like how high his dribble is and there isn't a lot of deceptiveness to it. He will need to get some more advanced handles as he develops and that might take a few seasons. Someone may fall in love with the BPM and draft him top 5 which isn't a crime, but I have him more in the 7-10 range.
9. DAL: Brayden Burries (shades of: Jrue Holiday, Marcus Smart) [range: 8-13]
Plays very under control. Not the best handle for a guard, but it is functional. Good at attacking a bent defense and can get into the lane sometimes with his handle. Nice jumper, very physical, should be an excellent complimentary player on offense. Defensively he is fundamentally sound and, again, very physical. He fits that archetype of the defensive guard that has been so valuable as a "1" or a "2" in the NBA for the last 15 years. I think he also has some upside to be a pretty good scorer, so there could be someone closer to Jrue/Derrick White than the Marcus Smarts of the world, but I think the floor is high enough that a team would probably keep him long term if they can even if he doesn't absolutely "hit". I think Atlanta prefers him to Brown given that they moved on from Young.
10. MIL: Nate Ament (shades of: Chandler Parsons, Deni Avdija) [range: 6-13]
A lot of the raw materials you want to see from a skill-perspective are there. He has a fine handle for a 4/3 and isn't selfish. He isn't an outlier playmaker, passer, or ball handler, but he will fit into an offense and with a live dribble is a threat to score from the freethrow line and in. He can be pretty aggressive attaching the rim despite his really thin stature which bodes well for his translation to the NBA. Defensively he can get caught ball watching, or buried under the basket by stronger players. OTOH he has a lot of length and he can be somewhat disruptive with it. He offers a bit of secondary rim protection and can disrupt passing lanes. His shooting touch at the beginning of the year was alarming and he is still prone to some bad misses. I think he really needs some time to shoot, but an NBA team should be able to work on this with him. I don't think he will be an elite shooter, but probably a slightly below-average to average 3-point shooter. However, he should create quite a bit of rim pressure once he is more physically developed and I also think he will have some nice secondary playmaking potential. Skillwise he is more of a 4/3 than a 3/4 and I think that the same is true of his physical tools - I am not sure he can get fast enough laterally to be a primary wing defender, but he can get strong enough to handle 4s and he is mobile enough to switch. I don't think that he is a star, and that was kind of the hope going into the season - that he would be the 4th player off the board and have an outside shot at an excellent freshman season. Instead, Caleb Wilson took that role in the draft, and I think a few other freshman have looked better. That said, many of those freshman are guards and Ament's physical tools and position just make him more useful if he is a long-term starter, relative to a small guard who is a long-term starter but not a transcendent star. He can't create his own shot on the perimeter which is a huge limiting factor for his offensive potential.
11. GSW: Hannes Steinbach (shades of: bigger, better Kyle Filipowski, Chris Kaman with a 3) [range: 11-17]
Steinbach is a bit of a weird one to me. On offense and defense he is a tremendous rebounder, very physical. He is also reasonably mobile and a good passer for a center. Defensively he doesn't seem like a defensive anchor, but I think he has more value than guys like Nikola Vucevic on that end. Wingspan is probably going to matter a lot for whether he breaks into the top-10 or drops a bit, but he seems like a nice starting center for a team but likely not a star.
12. OKC (LAC): Morez Johnson (shades of: Isaiah Stewart, Precious Achiuwa) [range: 12-19]
I really disliked him in international play, but at Michigan he showed an improved shot that I think projects out to NBA three in the long term and is a mobile and switchable defender. I have some doubts about his ability to be a full-time starting center, as well as his ability to be a plus rebounder.
13. MIL (MIA): LaBaron Philon (shades of: Dennis Schroder, George Hill) [range: 10-16]
Excellent at maintaining his dribble. Relentlessly attacks the defense, none of his movements are passive or without purpose and he creates a lot of pressure in the center of the court. He can get to the rim, but also has a variety of creative finishes short of getting to the rim. Excellent at keeping defenders on his back. Jumper has come a long way. Not selfish, but still a more scoring-oriented point guard. The way he attacks the middle of the floor reminds me a bit of Dame, but Philon is not that level of shooter. Defensively he seems to have a pretty long wingspan and he is fast and physical, but he is also a bit on the smaller side for the NBA. I am not sure he can be a starting point guard, but I do think there is a chance that he is and that he is worth taking a first round flier on. I would not take him top-10.
14. CHA: Yaxel Landeborg (shades of: PJ Washington, Keegan Murray) [range: 11-17]
I really like the handle for a player of his size and I believe that the shooting will continue to improve. He takes a lot off the dribble for Michigan and can hit them, but he will take less in the NBA. He is quite old as a prospect, so what you see is what you get, but I think he is more interesting than similarly old prospects (e.g., Duarte) in that he has a desirable skillset and can defend 3/4s.
15. CHI (POR): Cameron Carr (shades of: Shaedon Sharpe, Gerald Green, but not quite as athletic as either) [range: 10-19]
Carr has improved a lot this season, though some of the things he does well were visible during the few games he played for Tennessee. He is a good shooter, though takes a few too many while not just dribbling, but really fading away, etc. Should be a good slasher in the NBA, but the lack of spacing at Baylor made that a bit more difficult. I think there is a chance that in a better team context he showed even more and was in contention for top-10. Defensively he is really long and can block some shots, but he doesn't generate as many steals as he should and I think he will really struggle to adjust to the physicality of the NBA.
16. MEM (PHX): Christian Anderson [range: 16-28]
Beautiful quick trigger on the jumper and has a reasonable but unspectacular handle for a point guard. Keeps the ball moving and throws some nice entry passes, but he is not some transcendent passer. Functional both on ball and off which will be appealing to a lot of teams. He feels like a good choice for someone who could outperform their draft position.
17. OKC (PHI): Aday Mara (shades of: Donovan Clingan) [range: 11-19]
Extremely slow and has some awkward movement tendencies. Could be more physical. Near the rim, he can have soft hands and finish, but I don't really trust his non-at-rim shooting, and I don't think he is anything more than an average roller. His size and soft hands allows him to get some lobs. Defensively he can block shots you don't expect him to get to - but as you would anticipate, you don't want him to switch. I think he is so painfully slow that he will also get taken advantage of some in drop coverage. The athletic testing is really helpful for him, but I think top-10 is an ambitious placement.
18. CHA (ORL): Jayden Quaintance (shades of: Robert Williams, Theo Ratliff) [range: 17-35]
JQ has no discernable skill on offense other than being a decent passer. He has terrible hands, farts up jumpers off his heels all the time, can't hit freethrows, and won't ever stretch the court. Hypothetically he has fantastic physical qualities that could make him a good rim-runner and lob threat, but he has been so injured that it isn't clear he can or will be able to do that. Defensively he can be disruptive and switch a bit. Very good shot-blocker, and I Think he will be a good rebounder. A best case outcome is something like Robert Williams. I think a team will draft him too high, I certainly would not take him lottery, and I really wouldn't start considering him until the mid-20s. There is a lack of centers in this draft which may boost JQ a bit.
19. TOR: Chris Cenac (shades of: Bobby Portis, Wendell Carter Jr.) [range: 12-20]
Cenac has a nice jumper and is a relentless rebounder. The shooting percentages don't look great, but if you look at other centers who have become floor spacers it isn't all that out of line. I think the rebounding and steals are really promising r/e effort, and his measureables suggest that he should be a better shot blocker than he was at Houston. Given that he played next to Tugler, I think the blocks were depressed a bit.
20. SAS (ATL): Karim Lopez (shades of: Naji Marshall, Jalen Johnson) [range: 16-24]
Has developed a nice handle this season and has some court vision. Shot is ugly and rigid and percentages are poor but not alarming. Lopez is 6-8, and he can dribble + pass. He can kind of shoot, if he ever gets that part of his game on track there is a reasonable amount of upside. Good athlete with nice footwork. As a vertical athlete I think he is above average but not amazing.
21. DET (MIN): Ebuka Okorie [range: 16-26]
Okorie is extremely fast and can generate his own shot in the paint or on the perimeter. Interior finishing could improve but draws a ton of fouls. I don't think he makes advance reads as a passer so being on a team with a bigger distributor could really maximize him. I don't have a ton of confidence in his defense given the size.
22. PHI (HOU): Koa Peat (shades of: Aaron Gordon) [range: 17-26]
I think Peat's short jumper demonstrates some soft touch even though there is some stiffness in the shoulders and it is flat. I have some irrational faith that he will develop a shot. Defensively he doesn't get many stocks, but he is incredibly switchable and in the right place. Offensively he cuts, gets offensive rebounds, and is a decent passer.
23. ATL (CLE): Sergio de Larrea [range: 16-26]
Fantastic passer and legitimate point guard skills at 6-7. Jumper has improved quite a bit, fun floater game, but won't get to the rim and finish through contact. Defensively seems likely to be a bit of a liability, but I think the connective skills on offense are enough for him to get drafted as high as the late lottery.
24. NYK: Dailyn Swain [range: 17-27]
I am not as sold as other people, I don't believe much in the shot. However, the rest of the tools are pretty interesting and I think betting on the shot coming around is perfectly fine in the 20s.
25. LAL: Meleek Thomas (shades of: Jordan Clarkson) [range: 19-28]
Thomas can generate his own shot and has some length as a small guard defender. He has a deceptive handle and movements and is a creative scorer. Defensively his length can be disruptive and he gives good effort, but I am not sure he has the frame or awareness to be elite on that end.
26. DEN: Bennett Stirtz [range: 21-28]
Stirtz is a really nice shooter and can attack a bent defense. He can't really break down a defense with his dribble, but he is an acceptable table-setter on offense. I think he will look best on a team that has another guard who takes a lot of ball-handling responsibilities and he can play the role of completing 'hockey assists' and hitting open threes.
27. BOS: Tarris Reed Jr.
Reed doesn't have any standout skills, but he is strong, fairly mobile, and always in the right place. I think a team looking for someone who can be a decent backup center will snap him up ASAP.
28. BRK (DET): Allen Graves
Graves is slow, plays a lot of back to the basket, doesn't have an advance handle, and doesn't look like an outlier shooter (high percentage, low volume). That said, he is also very cerebral when he plays and is a "right place, right time" player despite being so young. I am lower on him in the draft than most because I think he needs two or three years to develop his body, but I think a team who is in the midst of a rebuild and has a late first/early second should consider him.
29. CLE (SAS): Isaiah Evans
Evans has a quick trigger and a nice shooting stroke. He can attack a bent defense but doesn't have a super advanced handle or amazing athleticism. Defensively I don't love him and I think he will get burned a lot by smaller guards, and has too narrow of a frame to be ideal guarding 3s.
30. DAL (OKC): Ryan Conwell
Strength has become a huge quality smaller guards need to have, and Conwell has it in spades. He is a fantastic shooter who does just enough on-ball to keep things moving, and his strength defensively allows him to switch up. He is a good rebounder for his size and generates some steals (though not an outlier amount). He is also just heady and mature, and I think a team late in the first should seriously consider him as I feel fairly confident he is an NBA player.
31. NYK (WAS): Henri Vaaseer
32. MEM (IND): Joshua Jefferson
33. MIN (BRK): Jack Kayil
34. SAC: Alex Karaban
35. SAS (UTA): Zuby Ejiofor
36. LAC (MEM): Richie Saunders
37. OKC (DAL): Malique Lewis
38. CHI (NOP): Baba Miller
39. HOU (CHI): Trevon Brazil
40. BOS (MIL): Jaron Pierre
41. MIA (GSW): Keyshawn Hall
42. SAS (POR): Felix Okpara
43. BRK (LAC): Tre White
44. SAS (MIA): Braden Smith
45. SAC (CHA): Quadir Copeland
46. ORL: Emmanuel Sharpe
47. PHX (PHI): Jaden Bradley
48. DAL (PHX): Otega Oweh
49. DEN (ATL): Jakobe Gillespie
50. TOR: Bruce Thornton
51. WAS (MIN): Tobi Lawal
52. LAC (CLE): Tre Donaldson
53. HOU: Vsevolod Ishchenko
54. GSW (LAL): Nate Biddle
55. NYK: Ugonna Unyenso
56. CHI (DEN): Izaiyah Nelson
57. ATL (BOS): Tamin Lipsey
58. NOP (DET): Maliq Brown
59. MIN (SAS): Kylan Boswell
60. WAS (OKC): Trey Kaufman-Renn
Thijs De Ridder*
De Ridder can't be drafted because he was auto-eligible in 2025, which I think is interesting enough to note, because I would have him in this draft, otherwise. This also applies to Sananda Fru.
Could also be drafted
Seth Trimble
Rafael Castro
Malik Reneau
Lamar Wilkerson
Cade Tyson
Donovan Atwell
Jaden Henley
Bryce Hopkins
Keiba Keita
Nick Martinelli
Tyler Nickel
Malik Dia
Darrion Williams
Tyler Bilodeau
Peter Suder
Tucker DeVries
Milos Uzan
Probably not getting drafted, but could be NBA players:
Nick Boyd
Donovan Dent
MJ Collins
Dillon Mitchell
Jaxon Kohler
Kashie Natt
Michael Ajayi
Tyon Grant-Foster
Chad Baker-Mazzara
Guessing 2027 [parenthesis is the highest I think they can be drafted by round]: Motiejus Krivas (1st), Billy Richmond (1st), Braylon Mullins (1st), Miikka Muurinen (1st), Trey McKenney (1st), Jalen Harrelson (1st), Alijah Arenas (1st), Tomislav Ivisic (1st), Jasper Johnson (1st), Jack Kayil (1st), Isiah Harwell (1st), Thomas Haugh (1st), Omer Maier (1st), Massamba Diop (1st), Dame Sarr (1st), David Mirkovic (1st), Meleek Thomas (1st), Tounde Yessoufou (1st), Billy Richmond (1st), Rueben Chinyelu (1st), Tyler Tanner (1st), Jacob Furphy (1st), Neoklis Avdalas (1st), Patrick Ngongba II (1st), Matas Vokietaitis (1st), Noa Kouakou-Heugue (1st), Jojo Tugler (1st), Dash Daniels (1st), Milan Momcilovic (2nd), Nikolas Khamenia (2nd), JT Toppin (2nd), Shon Abaev (2nd), Mario Saint-Suprey (2nd), Tyler Tanner (2nd), Donnie Freeman (2nd), Talis Soulhac (2nd), Darius Adams, Eric Reibe (2nd), Moustapha Thiam (2nd), Cayden Boozer (2nd), Darren Harris, Niko Bundalo, Johann Grunloh (late 1st, early 2nd), Silas Demary (late 1st, early 2nd), Malachi Moreno (late 1st, early 2nd), Amari Allen (2nd), Declan Duru (2nd), Flory Bidunga (2nd), Jeremy Fears Jr. (2nd), Alex Condon (2nd), Kanon Catchings (2nd), Mihailo Petrović (2nd), Boogie Fland (2nd), Magoon Gwath (2nd), Ian Jackson (2nd), Silas Demary (2nd), Karter Knox (2nd), Pryce Sandfort (2nd), Myles Bird (2nd), Andrej Stojakovic (2nd), Kwame Evans (2nd), Cole Rosario (2nd), Taylor Bol Bowen (2nd), Coen Carr (2nd), Eric Dailey (2nd), Zvonimir Ivisic (2nd), Tahaad Pettiford (2nd), Aden Holloway (2nd), Joson Sanon (2nd), PJ Haggerty (2nd), Mackenzie Mgbako (2nd), Robert Wright (2nd), Caleb Foster (2nd), Baye Ndongo (2nd), Blake Harper (2nd), Adrian Wooley (2nd), Jarin Stevenson (2nd), Aaron Bradshaw (2nd), Ognjen Srzentic (2nd), Michael Ruzic (2nd), Mouhamed Faye (2nd), Pavle Backo (2nd)
2027: Jordan Smith (1st), Tyran Stokes (1st), Caleb Holt (1st), Taj Ariza (1st), Ikenna Alozie (1st), Daniel Jacobson, Quron Elliott, Adam Atamna, Fallou Mbow
AJ takes really long strides and is physically explosive, but a lot of his dribble moves are extremely slow. A lot of this is because he always takes long strides, even when doing things like spin-moves, etc., but that results in no leverage for moves that require smaller movements. All of that to say: an NBA team should be able to do a lot with his dribble drive game. They will tighten up the handle and clear up some of the awkward movement. What is promising, is that his shot is looking smoother as the season goes on. It is not exactly amazing, but he should not be a non-factor from three. Defensively he has a lot of tools, but there are some decision-making issues to work through. In the second half of the season his shot has improved, and he is correcting some of the movement issues I identified above. These are good signs that further development will help him maximize the potential of his frame and skillset.
2. UTA: Darryn Peterson (shades of: Bradley Beal, Ray Allen) [range: 1-3]
To start the season he was not explosive at all, he just looked like a really skilled scoring guard. This was confusing because in high school he was explosive and good as a lead guard. Now we are seeing some of the explosiveness come back - though he really is not playing as their lead guard. His shot is gorgeous: repeatable, fast, consistent. He can score from three levels, he has deceptive handles and body movements, he changes speed and direction at the right time, etc. He isn't selfish, he is always directing traffic for his team on and off-ball. Defensively he has good anticipation and lateral speed, he should be a plus on that end as a guard. I love him, I am convinced he is a star. Later season thoughts: wow, that was not a good season. There are obviously large injury concerns and over time his facilitation became worse. I still think there is more on-ball creation there, but I can see Peterson sliding given how bad his Freshman season was. I think there is a reasonably chance he slides to closer to 7, but I will be keeping him top-4 in my mock. I am still bullish on the upside, but there is risk here.
3. MEM: Cameron Boozer (shades of: Kevin Love, old Blake Griffin, Alperin Sengun) [range: 1-3]
Boozer isn't an explosive athlete, he isn't fluid like modern power forwards, but he is just an incredibly good basketball player. At the power forward position he is a good passer who can act as an offensive hub. He is often directing his teammates on defense, as well. In almost every situation he makes the right decision. Physically he is strong, an excellent rebounder, and I think he is mobile enough to not be a liability defensively. If he can physically play center that will increase his value in the NBA - I think he is strong enough, but he can't really provide rim protection. I buy that he will be a functional three point shooter in the NBA, and over time he may even be very good. I don't buy that he will step in and shoot 40% from 3 or anything close to that in his first few years, nor do I think he is going to create a lot of shots for himself on the perimeter (he will need them created). Whoever drafts him is getting an excellent player, but he might require some work to build the best possible team around (e.g., he would be fantastic next to Jaren Jackson or Alex Sarr).
4. CHI: Caleb Wilson (shades of: Joe Smith + passing, early career Pascal Siakam) [range: 2-4]
Offensively is a nice passer with a good handle for his size - though it could stand to tighten up a bit if he is going to be more of an on-ball player. I think that is going to be important, as I doubt he becomes a major threat as a shooter. From the midrange his jumper looks okay, so I do think it will project out over time, but he will be his most impactful if he can score off of drives consistently (I suspect this is the swing skill that determines if he is a good roleplayer, or something more). Defensively he is extremely mobile, and is a tenacious rebounder. He can switch onto guards and UNC will sometimes have him hound whoever is bringing the ball down the court. I think this has confused his role a bit on defense, though, as he tends to get lost (and I think part of this is the complexity of his role). Another concerning thing is that he bites on almost every pumpfake. I am pretty high on Wilson, but he is riskier than the top 3. I do think he is the perfect personality for Memphis, though.
5. LAC (IND): Keaton Wagler (shades of: Steve Smith, Mike Miller) [range: 5-8]
Wagler is an amazing shooter off the bounce or in spot up situations. He has some physicality when driving that allows him to finish, and he has a better handle than a lot of players who are primarily shooters (e.g., Klay Thompson). Lots of people are high on his court vision and see him as a pure point guard, but I think most of his reads are pretty basic and he doesn't have an incredibly advanced handle to reliably break down a defense at this point. I see him more in the mold of shooting guards who offer very nice secondary creation and who can hit a variety of shots off the dribble or on the move. EDIT: in the second half of the season he is operating much more as the primary facilitator at Illinois. The returns are pretty promising, he is showing more ability to break down a defense and has more opportunities to demonstrate that he is a plus passer. I am not buying that he is elite, but I do think there is some potential in there for a lead guard which puts him firmly above Kingston Flemings for me (who is just smaller).
6. BRK: Darius Acuff (shades of: Deron Williams, Stephon Marbury, Jarret Jack) [range: 5-8]
I love watching Acuff. Offensively he settles his team and dictates pace. He can create his own shot on the perimeter or in the midrange, and he is a fairly physical finisher (though not some above-the-rim savant like Rose). I think he is going to have a lot of value as a true point guard, and I love seeing someone in that archetype coming into the NBA. Defensively he doesn't generate steals and I don't think he is particularly aware despite his clear basketball IQ on offense.
7. SAC: Mikel Brown Jr (shades of: LaMelo Ball, Immanuel Quickley) [range: 5-8]
At his best can dictate the pace of play on offense. He takes a bit too many off-the-dribble threes for my tastes, but he isn't a complete loose canon with his shot selection and does create opportunities for others by getting into the lane and keeping a live dribble. He isn't so fast that he is turning the corner on everyone, but he can attack a defense. I think he will be a pretty big threat from three even if the percentages could be better with improved shot selection. Defensively he has pretty fast hands and can get some nice poke-aways, but I don't think he will be an asset on that end. I am always looking for guard who, when they play, really dictate the pace of the game. Brown can do that pretty well, so I think there is quite a bit of upside here.
8. ATL (NOP): Kingston Flemings (shades of: Monta Ellis) [range: 7-13]
I am not as high on him as consensus. He has a really nice shooting stroke, is lightening quick and not selfish. Defensively he competes but I think he will get physically bullied at the next level a bit and he has a narrow frame. I don't like how high his dribble is and there isn't a lot of deceptiveness to it. He will need to get some more advanced handles as he develops and that might take a few seasons. Someone may fall in love with the BPM and draft him top 5 which isn't a crime, but I have him more in the 7-10 range.
9. DAL: Brayden Burries (shades of: Jrue Holiday, Marcus Smart) [range: 8-13]
Plays very under control. Not the best handle for a guard, but it is functional. Good at attacking a bent defense and can get into the lane sometimes with his handle. Nice jumper, very physical, should be an excellent complimentary player on offense. Defensively he is fundamentally sound and, again, very physical. He fits that archetype of the defensive guard that has been so valuable as a "1" or a "2" in the NBA for the last 15 years. I think he also has some upside to be a pretty good scorer, so there could be someone closer to Jrue/Derrick White than the Marcus Smarts of the world, but I think the floor is high enough that a team would probably keep him long term if they can even if he doesn't absolutely "hit". I think Atlanta prefers him to Brown given that they moved on from Young.
10. MIL: Nate Ament (shades of: Chandler Parsons, Deni Avdija) [range: 6-13]
A lot of the raw materials you want to see from a skill-perspective are there. He has a fine handle for a 4/3 and isn't selfish. He isn't an outlier playmaker, passer, or ball handler, but he will fit into an offense and with a live dribble is a threat to score from the freethrow line and in. He can be pretty aggressive attaching the rim despite his really thin stature which bodes well for his translation to the NBA. Defensively he can get caught ball watching, or buried under the basket by stronger players. OTOH he has a lot of length and he can be somewhat disruptive with it. He offers a bit of secondary rim protection and can disrupt passing lanes. His shooting touch at the beginning of the year was alarming and he is still prone to some bad misses. I think he really needs some time to shoot, but an NBA team should be able to work on this with him. I don't think he will be an elite shooter, but probably a slightly below-average to average 3-point shooter. However, he should create quite a bit of rim pressure once he is more physically developed and I also think he will have some nice secondary playmaking potential. Skillwise he is more of a 4/3 than a 3/4 and I think that the same is true of his physical tools - I am not sure he can get fast enough laterally to be a primary wing defender, but he can get strong enough to handle 4s and he is mobile enough to switch. I don't think that he is a star, and that was kind of the hope going into the season - that he would be the 4th player off the board and have an outside shot at an excellent freshman season. Instead, Caleb Wilson took that role in the draft, and I think a few other freshman have looked better. That said, many of those freshman are guards and Ament's physical tools and position just make him more useful if he is a long-term starter, relative to a small guard who is a long-term starter but not a transcendent star. He can't create his own shot on the perimeter which is a huge limiting factor for his offensive potential.
11. GSW: Hannes Steinbach (shades of: bigger, better Kyle Filipowski, Chris Kaman with a 3) [range: 11-17]
Steinbach is a bit of a weird one to me. On offense and defense he is a tremendous rebounder, very physical. He is also reasonably mobile and a good passer for a center. Defensively he doesn't seem like a defensive anchor, but I think he has more value than guys like Nikola Vucevic on that end. Wingspan is probably going to matter a lot for whether he breaks into the top-10 or drops a bit, but he seems like a nice starting center for a team but likely not a star.
12. OKC (LAC): Morez Johnson (shades of: Isaiah Stewart, Precious Achiuwa) [range: 12-19]
I really disliked him in international play, but at Michigan he showed an improved shot that I think projects out to NBA three in the long term and is a mobile and switchable defender. I have some doubts about his ability to be a full-time starting center, as well as his ability to be a plus rebounder.
13. MIL (MIA): LaBaron Philon (shades of: Dennis Schroder, George Hill) [range: 10-16]
Excellent at maintaining his dribble. Relentlessly attacks the defense, none of his movements are passive or without purpose and he creates a lot of pressure in the center of the court. He can get to the rim, but also has a variety of creative finishes short of getting to the rim. Excellent at keeping defenders on his back. Jumper has come a long way. Not selfish, but still a more scoring-oriented point guard. The way he attacks the middle of the floor reminds me a bit of Dame, but Philon is not that level of shooter. Defensively he seems to have a pretty long wingspan and he is fast and physical, but he is also a bit on the smaller side for the NBA. I am not sure he can be a starting point guard, but I do think there is a chance that he is and that he is worth taking a first round flier on. I would not take him top-10.
14. CHA: Yaxel Landeborg (shades of: PJ Washington, Keegan Murray) [range: 11-17]
I really like the handle for a player of his size and I believe that the shooting will continue to improve. He takes a lot off the dribble for Michigan and can hit them, but he will take less in the NBA. He is quite old as a prospect, so what you see is what you get, but I think he is more interesting than similarly old prospects (e.g., Duarte) in that he has a desirable skillset and can defend 3/4s.
15. CHI (POR): Cameron Carr (shades of: Shaedon Sharpe, Gerald Green, but not quite as athletic as either) [range: 10-19]
Carr has improved a lot this season, though some of the things he does well were visible during the few games he played for Tennessee. He is a good shooter, though takes a few too many while not just dribbling, but really fading away, etc. Should be a good slasher in the NBA, but the lack of spacing at Baylor made that a bit more difficult. I think there is a chance that in a better team context he showed even more and was in contention for top-10. Defensively he is really long and can block some shots, but he doesn't generate as many steals as he should and I think he will really struggle to adjust to the physicality of the NBA.
16. MEM (PHX): Christian Anderson [range: 16-28]
Beautiful quick trigger on the jumper and has a reasonable but unspectacular handle for a point guard. Keeps the ball moving and throws some nice entry passes, but he is not some transcendent passer. Functional both on ball and off which will be appealing to a lot of teams. He feels like a good choice for someone who could outperform their draft position.
17. OKC (PHI): Aday Mara (shades of: Donovan Clingan) [range: 11-19]
Extremely slow and has some awkward movement tendencies. Could be more physical. Near the rim, he can have soft hands and finish, but I don't really trust his non-at-rim shooting, and I don't think he is anything more than an average roller. His size and soft hands allows him to get some lobs. Defensively he can block shots you don't expect him to get to - but as you would anticipate, you don't want him to switch. I think he is so painfully slow that he will also get taken advantage of some in drop coverage. The athletic testing is really helpful for him, but I think top-10 is an ambitious placement.
18. CHA (ORL): Jayden Quaintance (shades of: Robert Williams, Theo Ratliff) [range: 17-35]
JQ has no discernable skill on offense other than being a decent passer. He has terrible hands, farts up jumpers off his heels all the time, can't hit freethrows, and won't ever stretch the court. Hypothetically he has fantastic physical qualities that could make him a good rim-runner and lob threat, but he has been so injured that it isn't clear he can or will be able to do that. Defensively he can be disruptive and switch a bit. Very good shot-blocker, and I Think he will be a good rebounder. A best case outcome is something like Robert Williams. I think a team will draft him too high, I certainly would not take him lottery, and I really wouldn't start considering him until the mid-20s. There is a lack of centers in this draft which may boost JQ a bit.
19. TOR: Chris Cenac (shades of: Bobby Portis, Wendell Carter Jr.) [range: 12-20]
Cenac has a nice jumper and is a relentless rebounder. The shooting percentages don't look great, but if you look at other centers who have become floor spacers it isn't all that out of line. I think the rebounding and steals are really promising r/e effort, and his measureables suggest that he should be a better shot blocker than he was at Houston. Given that he played next to Tugler, I think the blocks were depressed a bit.
20. SAS (ATL): Karim Lopez (shades of: Naji Marshall, Jalen Johnson) [range: 16-24]
Has developed a nice handle this season and has some court vision. Shot is ugly and rigid and percentages are poor but not alarming. Lopez is 6-8, and he can dribble + pass. He can kind of shoot, if he ever gets that part of his game on track there is a reasonable amount of upside. Good athlete with nice footwork. As a vertical athlete I think he is above average but not amazing.
21. DET (MIN): Ebuka Okorie [range: 16-26]
Okorie is extremely fast and can generate his own shot in the paint or on the perimeter. Interior finishing could improve but draws a ton of fouls. I don't think he makes advance reads as a passer so being on a team with a bigger distributor could really maximize him. I don't have a ton of confidence in his defense given the size.
22. PHI (HOU): Koa Peat (shades of: Aaron Gordon) [range: 17-26]
I think Peat's short jumper demonstrates some soft touch even though there is some stiffness in the shoulders and it is flat. I have some irrational faith that he will develop a shot. Defensively he doesn't get many stocks, but he is incredibly switchable and in the right place. Offensively he cuts, gets offensive rebounds, and is a decent passer.
23. ATL (CLE): Sergio de Larrea [range: 16-26]
Fantastic passer and legitimate point guard skills at 6-7. Jumper has improved quite a bit, fun floater game, but won't get to the rim and finish through contact. Defensively seems likely to be a bit of a liability, but I think the connective skills on offense are enough for him to get drafted as high as the late lottery.
24. NYK: Dailyn Swain [range: 17-27]
I am not as sold as other people, I don't believe much in the shot. However, the rest of the tools are pretty interesting and I think betting on the shot coming around is perfectly fine in the 20s.
25. LAL: Meleek Thomas (shades of: Jordan Clarkson) [range: 19-28]
Thomas can generate his own shot and has some length as a small guard defender. He has a deceptive handle and movements and is a creative scorer. Defensively his length can be disruptive and he gives good effort, but I am not sure he has the frame or awareness to be elite on that end.
26. DEN: Bennett Stirtz [range: 21-28]
Stirtz is a really nice shooter and can attack a bent defense. He can't really break down a defense with his dribble, but he is an acceptable table-setter on offense. I think he will look best on a team that has another guard who takes a lot of ball-handling responsibilities and he can play the role of completing 'hockey assists' and hitting open threes.
27. BOS: Tarris Reed Jr.
Reed doesn't have any standout skills, but he is strong, fairly mobile, and always in the right place. I think a team looking for someone who can be a decent backup center will snap him up ASAP.
28. BRK (DET): Allen Graves
Graves is slow, plays a lot of back to the basket, doesn't have an advance handle, and doesn't look like an outlier shooter (high percentage, low volume). That said, he is also very cerebral when he plays and is a "right place, right time" player despite being so young. I am lower on him in the draft than most because I think he needs two or three years to develop his body, but I think a team who is in the midst of a rebuild and has a late first/early second should consider him.
29. CLE (SAS): Isaiah Evans
Evans has a quick trigger and a nice shooting stroke. He can attack a bent defense but doesn't have a super advanced handle or amazing athleticism. Defensively I don't love him and I think he will get burned a lot by smaller guards, and has too narrow of a frame to be ideal guarding 3s.
30. DAL (OKC): Ryan Conwell
Strength has become a huge quality smaller guards need to have, and Conwell has it in spades. He is a fantastic shooter who does just enough on-ball to keep things moving, and his strength defensively allows him to switch up. He is a good rebounder for his size and generates some steals (though not an outlier amount). He is also just heady and mature, and I think a team late in the first should seriously consider him as I feel fairly confident he is an NBA player.
31. NYK (WAS): Henri Vaaseer
32. MEM (IND): Joshua Jefferson
33. MIN (BRK): Jack Kayil
34. SAC: Alex Karaban
35. SAS (UTA): Zuby Ejiofor
36. LAC (MEM): Richie Saunders
37. OKC (DAL): Malique Lewis
38. CHI (NOP): Baba Miller
39. HOU (CHI): Trevon Brazil
40. BOS (MIL): Jaron Pierre
41. MIA (GSW): Keyshawn Hall
42. SAS (POR): Felix Okpara
43. BRK (LAC): Tre White
44. SAS (MIA): Braden Smith
45. SAC (CHA): Quadir Copeland
46. ORL: Emmanuel Sharpe
47. PHX (PHI): Jaden Bradley
48. DAL (PHX): Otega Oweh
49. DEN (ATL): Jakobe Gillespie
50. TOR: Bruce Thornton
51. WAS (MIN): Tobi Lawal
52. LAC (CLE): Tre Donaldson
53. HOU: Vsevolod Ishchenko
54. GSW (LAL): Nate Biddle
55. NYK: Ugonna Unyenso
56. CHI (DEN): Izaiyah Nelson
57. ATL (BOS): Tamin Lipsey
58. NOP (DET): Maliq Brown
59. MIN (SAS): Kylan Boswell
60. WAS (OKC): Trey Kaufman-Renn
Thijs De Ridder*
De Ridder can't be drafted because he was auto-eligible in 2025, which I think is interesting enough to note, because I would have him in this draft, otherwise. This also applies to Sananda Fru.
Could also be drafted
Seth Trimble
Rafael Castro
Malik Reneau
Lamar Wilkerson
Cade Tyson
Donovan Atwell
Jaden Henley
Bryce Hopkins
Keiba Keita
Nick Martinelli
Tyler Nickel
Malik Dia
Darrion Williams
Tyler Bilodeau
Peter Suder
Tucker DeVries
Milos Uzan
Probably not getting drafted, but could be NBA players:
Nick Boyd
Donovan Dent
MJ Collins
Dillon Mitchell
Jaxon Kohler
Kashie Natt
Michael Ajayi
Tyon Grant-Foster
Chad Baker-Mazzara
Guessing 2027 [parenthesis is the highest I think they can be drafted by round]: Motiejus Krivas (1st), Billy Richmond (1st), Braylon Mullins (1st), Miikka Muurinen (1st), Trey McKenney (1st), Jalen Harrelson (1st), Alijah Arenas (1st), Tomislav Ivisic (1st), Jasper Johnson (1st), Jack Kayil (1st), Isiah Harwell (1st), Thomas Haugh (1st), Omer Maier (1st), Massamba Diop (1st), Dame Sarr (1st), David Mirkovic (1st), Meleek Thomas (1st), Tounde Yessoufou (1st), Billy Richmond (1st), Rueben Chinyelu (1st), Tyler Tanner (1st), Jacob Furphy (1st), Neoklis Avdalas (1st), Patrick Ngongba II (1st), Matas Vokietaitis (1st), Noa Kouakou-Heugue (1st), Jojo Tugler (1st), Dash Daniels (1st), Milan Momcilovic (2nd), Nikolas Khamenia (2nd), JT Toppin (2nd), Shon Abaev (2nd), Mario Saint-Suprey (2nd), Tyler Tanner (2nd), Donnie Freeman (2nd), Talis Soulhac (2nd), Darius Adams, Eric Reibe (2nd), Moustapha Thiam (2nd), Cayden Boozer (2nd), Darren Harris, Niko Bundalo, Johann Grunloh (late 1st, early 2nd), Silas Demary (late 1st, early 2nd), Malachi Moreno (late 1st, early 2nd), Amari Allen (2nd), Declan Duru (2nd), Flory Bidunga (2nd), Jeremy Fears Jr. (2nd), Alex Condon (2nd), Kanon Catchings (2nd), Mihailo Petrović (2nd), Boogie Fland (2nd), Magoon Gwath (2nd), Ian Jackson (2nd), Silas Demary (2nd), Karter Knox (2nd), Pryce Sandfort (2nd), Myles Bird (2nd), Andrej Stojakovic (2nd), Kwame Evans (2nd), Cole Rosario (2nd), Taylor Bol Bowen (2nd), Coen Carr (2nd), Eric Dailey (2nd), Zvonimir Ivisic (2nd), Tahaad Pettiford (2nd), Aden Holloway (2nd), Joson Sanon (2nd), PJ Haggerty (2nd), Mackenzie Mgbako (2nd), Robert Wright (2nd), Caleb Foster (2nd), Baye Ndongo (2nd), Blake Harper (2nd), Adrian Wooley (2nd), Jarin Stevenson (2nd), Aaron Bradshaw (2nd), Ognjen Srzentic (2nd), Michael Ruzic (2nd), Mouhamed Faye (2nd), Pavle Backo (2nd)
2027: Jordan Smith (1st), Tyran Stokes (1st), Caleb Holt (1st), Taj Ariza (1st), Ikenna Alozie (1st), Daniel Jacobson, Quron Elliott, Adam Atamna, Fallou Mbow
I really think he will be a starting caliber center for a team - not an elite one - but a really versatile and useful player who can pop out to three and move the ball, kind of in the Nurkic mold.