RealGM

The 2026 Analytics Big Board

This year is pretty special. I’ve a bit of time to build an analytical engine that moves past the "box score counting" of old-school metrics. Because any player-level model is only as good as its ability to estimate team impact, I started by building a proprietary team ranking model.

Here is my first pass of the big board based on swBPM with manual subjective adjustment based on eye test/basketball IQ/feelings

Until I watch them like NBA teams or interview team and give them wonderlic-like tests, I have no better opinion at the moment aside from putting Boozer at tier 0; excuse this AI slop.

Tier 0

1. Cameron Boozer (Duke) - I say once in a generation, but we have had a lot of generationals lately

The 16.81 srBPM is a historical outlier, representing the most efficient freshman impact in the modern era. Boozer is the youngest player in the lottery but possesses the highest basketball IQ in the class. He is a floor-raiser who dictates the outcome of the game.

Tier 1 - any of these players should go #1 in 2024, #2-3 in 2025 (ex- what we know about Kon right now)

2. Keaton Wagler (Illinois)

Wagler is the standout trajectory play of this draft. Despite being unranked in high school, his 11.07 srBPM reflects a rapid developmental curve. As a 6'6" guard with elite shooting and vision, he uses his cerebral advantage to dominate without needing elite explosive athleticism. I value trajectory a lot more than pedigree. Life is not determined by where you were born, but where you end up.

3. Darryn Peterson (Kansas)

Peterson remains the most naturally talented player in the draft, with a skill set comparable to the highest-level NBA creators. While his 7.57 srBPM is lower than others on this list, his natural scoring gravity and three-level shot-making keep him firmly in the top three.

4. Kingston Flemings (Houston)

An 11.75 srBPM as a freshman point guard at Houston is rare. Flemings is the most robust lead guard in the class, acting as the engine for a championship-caliber team. He is a two-way force and a natural leader who excels under high-pressure coaching.

5. AJ Dybantsa (BYU)

Dybantsa is an effortless scorer, but his 9.31 srBPM suggests his high volume doesn't always translate to team elevation. While his tools are elite, there are questions regarding his cerebral makeup and whether he can impact winning as effectively as the primary engines above him.

6. Caleb Wilson (UNC)

Wilson is a high-upside prospect with elite size and moldability. His 12.71 srBPM is strong, but he slots in here as a "tools" play. He is a consistent double-double threat who provides extreme defensive versatility and offensive upsides.

App is mature enough for a public reveal, but is still a WIP that may change at any down, and may go down at any time for maintenance.

http://vstatball.com

3/25 Update with full lotto

Tier 0 - Generational Player
1. Cameron Boozer

Tier 1 - #1 Pick in Most Year
2. Keaton Wagler
3. Darryn Peterson

Tier 2 - #1 Pick in Weak Year
4. Caleb Wilson
5. AJ Dybantsa

Tier 3 - All-star Median Outcome
6. Kingston Flemings
7. Mikel Brown Jr

Tier 4 - Semi-star, 3rd option types median outcomes
8. Hannes Steinbach
9. Darius Acuff
10. Brayden Burries
11. Nate Ament
12. Bennett Stirtz
13. LaBaron Philon
14. Tyler Tanner

I think this is a 5 player draft. I think Boozer must go #1. The other 4 are arguably interchangeable.

There are many small and young and extremely good guards this year. They should all go in lotto. Tyler Tanner is as good as Flemings/Brown/LaBaron/Mikel. Flemings is rated higher because he is the most complete guard. Mikel is rated higher because he has the best shooting potential. Outside shooting is the easiest way to become a semi-star in the league.

Burries and Stirtz are extremely productive despite their older age. Nate Ament is a blue chip prospect who is getting deep discounted right now.

Hannes should be the first C off the board this year.

Here are my tags for prospects this year. These are strictly rate state based auto-classifications. Mikel and Ament are non-qualified based on minutes.

Player	Tags	Rarity (1 in N)
Caleb Wilson	Shot Creator · Point Forward · Slasher · Interior Scorer · Two-Way	333,333
Milan Momcilovic	Elite Shooter · Shooter · Stretch Big	2,298
Nate Ament	Shot Creator · Stretch Big · Two-Way	1,431
Cameron Boozer	Point Forward · Stretch Big	865
AJ Dybantsa	Point Forward · Stretch Big	865
Aday Mara	Slasher · Interior Scorer · Defensive Anchor	734
Cameron Carr	Shot Creator · Shooter · Two-Way	694
Hannes Steinbach	Slasher · Interior Scorer · Two-Way	494
Labaron Philon Jr.	Playmaker · Shooter	177
Darryn Peterson	Shot Creator · Shooter	56
Kingston Flemings	Playmaker	33
Mikel Brown Jr.	Playmaker	33
Darius Acuff Jr.	Playmaker	33
Tyler Tanner	Playmaker	33
Dailyn Swain	Shot Creator	10
Keaton Wagler	Shooter	5
Brayden Burries	Shooter	5
Bennett Stirtz	Shooter	5

Note, Point Forward and Elite Shooter are the rarest tags. Technically Energy Big is rare, but that's because it is used to gate bigs with limited volume. Energy Big are Interior Scorer if they can score at volume.

Tag	Rarity (1 in X)
Point Forward	78
Energy Big	58
Elite Shooter	38
Connector	34
Playmaker	33
Defensive Anchor	18
Two-Way	12
Stretch Big	11
Shot Creator	10
Slasher	7
Shooter	5
Interior Scorer	5

- Shot Creator — self-generates looks; high usage, low assist rate
- Playmaker — primary facilitator; 25%+ of teammate makes on-floor
- Point Forward — frontcourt size with guard-level creation and passing
- Connector — secondary ball-mover; efficient distributor, not the hub
- Elite Shooter — 40%+ of shots from 3, converts at 42%+
- Shooter — heavy 3-point volume at respectable efficiency
- Slasher — attacks the rim relentlessly; earns free throws, avoids jumpers
- Stretch Big — big who shoots 3s, pulls defenders off the paint
- Interior Scorer — paint-only; post moves, cuts, putbacks
- Two-Way — above-average steals and blocks with positive overall impact
- Defensive Anchor — elite shot-blocker; alters the game around the basket
- Energy Big — rebounds and protects the rim; minimal offensive role

Post Combine Top 5. I think this my final top 5. Drafting anyone else is wrong. I can be convinced to take DP first, but Boozer/DP must be first. Dybantsa is worse than both of them.

Tier 0 - Generational Player
1. Cameron Boozer - most productive, mature build, great size, great tests. If your best argument against Boozer is that he is too skilled, and this limits his ceiling, that's baloney.

Tier 1 - #1 Pick in Most Year
2. Darryn Peterson - most talented in a decade, good all around measurements

Tier 2 - #1 Pick in Weak Year
3. Caleb Wilson - most raw but incredibly productive, elite measurements, if he had a shot, I would take him #2.

4. AJ Dybantsa - raw but productive, elite measurements. I think he is the most overrated with media consensus pinning him at #1.
5. Keaton Wagler - poor measurements, but I think he has the best skillset, lead guard with shooting and passing.

Final Big Board before draft

Tier 0 - Generational Player
1. Cameron Boozer - best prospect/most skilled

Tier 1 - #1 Pick in Most Year
2. Darryn Peterson - most talented
3. Caleb Wilson - most raw unfulfilled potential

Tier 2 - #1 Pick in Weak Year
4. AJ Dybantsa - most overrated

Tier 3 - All-Star Secondary Options
5. Keaton Wagler - best lead guard
6. Mikel Brown - best shooter
7. Darius Acuff

Tier 4 - Other players I like
8. Kingston Flemings
9 Hannes Steinbach - best big (Boozer will be playing PF early career until he hits age 27-30)
10. Nate Ament
11. Ebuka Okorie

I don't have strong opinions on other prospects and have not studied nor looked at most of them; I dislike Burries, Stirtz, Yaxel because of age. Stirtz, Yaxel are going to be high value picks after the lottery. They have no potential.

My hottest take this year is that AJ is the 4th best prospect this year, opposite of the supposed consensus.