Draft-Day Mock

[babyjax13]

I think that this draft is signifiacantly underrated--there is a legitimate top two (Griffin, Rubio) top 5 (Harden, Thabeet, Curry), top 7 (Evans, Hill), and top 10 (Jennings, Derozan, Flynn). After that the next transition is at 22 with Tyler Hansbrough, after that it gets pretty muddy and you can pretty much pick your guy all the way to 38 (Patrick Mills). After that I think there will be a couple of players that will have NBA careers and actually be role players (even if it is 3rd string). I think that the final talent drop-off is right around 57, and after that teams are making picks just for kicks and that they aren't going to get anything from them.


-------------------------------------------------First Round-------------------------------------------------

1. LA Clippers: Blake Griffin
LA just landed into a dream scenario with Griffin. With Eric Gordon on the outside they will be a force in the NBA. Griffin has tremendous athleticism and a great passion for the game. He has the speed and strength to cause a lot of match up problems, but he will have some trouble matching up against the longer power forwards in the NBA. I think Griffin is the 3rd best player in the last three drafts (only behind Rose and Durant).
Other Picks: None

2. Memphis: Ricky Rubio
The question for Memphis is whether or not Conley is the future point guard for their team. He has not impressed me as a future "star" point guard. Having Rubio could give them a nice three guard rotation, or they could use Conley or Rubio to get a good power forward.
Other Picks: Chase Buddinger, Danny Green

3. Oklahoma City: James Harden
Harden sort of reminds me of Paul Peirce, and I think that he is one of the few players in this draft who are pretty much a lock to have a good career. He has a real knack for getting into the lane and finishing but he needs to work on finishing on the right side of the hoop. He has a solid jumper and decent athleticism but is not going to do anything too amazing athletically. Right now I think that his ceiling is as a 16ppg scorer but if he adds the right hand and starts to hit 3-pointers at a 40% clip he could top out at near 20 points. Harden is one of my favorite players in this draft and I think that unlike many shooting guards in this draft and in recent years he is going to bring all the intangibles needed to be a good player on both ends of the court from day one.
Other Picks: Nick Cathelas

4. Sacramento: Tyreke Evans
Evans has a ton of potential, size, and the ability to get to the hole. I think he could be a good fit for Sacramento with his ability to penetrate and dish it out to the open wings (especially Martin). He is a solid defender and has the size to bother a lot of opposing guards Is he going to be a super star? I don't think so, but I think he can be a Rodney Stuckey type impact player. He will have to improve upon his assist to turnover ratio in order to be an effective "point guard".

With no guarentee about Kevin Martin's future Evans could be a good replacement--especially if they trade Martin for a point guard. Even if they keep both players I think they can co-exsist in the back-court. I think it is very likely that they trade down and grab "true" a point guard.
Other Picks: Austin Daye, Darren Collison

5. Minnesota: Stephan Curry
The strengths of Curry are pretty well known already, he is a clutch performer with one of the best shooting strokes in the NCAA. In the NBA he will be asked to do something similar to what he did in college, but also to become a distributer (which it seems like he will be able to do--for now). Early in the season he was predicted to be a top 5 pick, his stock has fallen but he still has the same talent that got him there in the first place. If Minnesota trades the 5 pick to Memphis I think this is where Curry will go, which is why I have him ahead of Thabeet (if the trade is not made Thabeet goes right before Curry).
Other Picks: Hasheem Thabeet, Gerald Henderson, Wayne Ellington, DeMarre Carol, Jack McClinton

6. Minnesota: Hasheem Thabeet
I had Thabeet drafted by Minnesota in my pre-lottery mock (viewtopic.php?f=38&t=899929), and after all the recent rumors it sounded like I may have been right. Thabeet has the size and defensive intangibles to be a great compliment to a below-average defending duo of Jefferson and Love (not for lack of effort though). Not many guys have the potential of Thabeet, but there are none in the draft with as many questions surrounding them. I think in the end he is the 4th or 5th best player in this draft which means that picking him at 6 is right around "market-value".

7. Golden State: Jordan Hill
Golden State drafts a guy with good potential and fundamentals. He has a nice mid-range game but the question would be whether or not he could set himself apart from Brandon Wright and become a good compliment to Randolph and Biendrins. Personally I don't see what all the buzz is about, but I hope he proves me wrong. What I do like about his game, however, is his shooting touch--much like Chris Bosh everything he puts up is soft and has a chance of getting in. In my mind he projects as a less athletic Charlie Villanueva (and a better defender).

If they trade the pick I think Hill has about the most value out of the players left on the board.
Other Picks: None

8. New York: Brandon Jennings
Jennings has a bit of an attitude and, at least to me, seems a little immature (he is 19 though). I think that these things in combination with Italy might be enough to make him drop a bit. He has great potential, is athletic, shoots well, and is a creative (not efficient) passer. I think that skipping out on college possibly hurt his stock more than it helped--it also called into question just how good he really is--he is just as big of an unknown as he was in high school. Derozan is another possibility at this spot.
Other Picks: Tony Douglas

9. Toronto: DeMar Derozan
DeMar has all the potential in the world but I think he will just end up as a decent role player that a couple of years down the road will have been deemed to have been drafted too early but not a huge bust. With Toronto already saying that Derozan is their man I think that if he drops to them they will take him off the board.
Other Picks: None

10. Milwaukee: Jonny Flynn
Flynn would thrive in an up-tempo system. He is extremely athletic and a good "floor general" but there is just something about him that makes me feel like he is not going to be worth the 10 pick and will become a Jarret Jack or Steve Blake type player (excellent second string guard, below average starter). I think it is very likely that Milwaukee trades up to the 7th pick in order to grab Jordan Hill and draft the guy that Golden State wants (I think Flynn fits perfectly).
Other Picks: Jeff Pendergraph

11. New Jersey: Terence Williams
Williams seems like the kind of player that would fit well on a team that thinks it can contend. He gives New Jersey a good perimeter defender to put next to Harris. Williams is an extremely gifted athlete with an improving jump shot, he will raise a lot of eyebrows in the NBA. I think at this point the Nets will be looking for a player that can be a future replacement for Carter and I think that Williams can be that guy. Williams would look great next to the newly acquired Lee.
Other Picks: None

12. Charlotte: James Johnson
Johnson looks like a pretty versatile player that will be able to get minutes in many situations. He is an extremely good athlete with length and strength. His jump shot needs some work but he would be a good fit on a young, rebuilding team. If he can start hitting threes I think he will be a more complete version of Travis Outlaw (but with the strength to play power forward). It is rumored that Johnson is Michael Jordan's choice at 12, hence the red font.
Other Picks: Jeff Adrien, Emir Preldzic

13. Indiana: Jrue Holliday
Jrue is has been a bit of a mystery over the past year. He had a bad college season but consistently showed flashes of why he is such a good prospect. He has great size, is athletic, and has a pretty jumper. He still needs to prove that he is a true point guard rather than stuck between positions--but I think he is going to do that and become a very nice NBA player.
Other Picks: Jerel McNeal

14. Phoenix: Earl Clark
Clark has so much upside it is unbelievable. He has all the "measurables" and skills to be a top 8 player in ANY draft but his consistency is terrible which is going to scare off a lot of teams. If Clark goes this low he is going to be a huge steal. Clark is not the classic tweener that we are used to seeing, he already has the skill-set and athleticism to play small forward, but he also has the size to play power forward (although it is questionable whether or not he would be most effective there....).

He looks like a larger version of Danny Granger. He is much longer, and a bit taller though which fits him well at the power forward position. He has been stellar at times during college, and bad at other times--in a lot of ways the way his college career is going reminds me of Rudy Gay, and we know how well he has turned out...
Other Picks: Dante Cunningham, Nando De Colo, Nikkos Pappas

15. Detroit: B.J. Mullens
Mullens is an extremely gifted athlete that will fit in well with a faster paced team. He was on a team with a coach that is notorious for having trouble with his big-men (most notably Kosta Koufos) which hurt is stock tremendously. His shot blocking abilities will be a welcome addition to an already great Chicago defense, and his size will really help them throughout the season. I think he will be this year's JaVale McGee.
Other Picks: DeJuan Summers, Taj Gibson, Sergio Llull

16. Chicago: DeJuan Blair
Chicago has been looking for a low-post scoring threat since Eddy Curry left; Blair is not the guy who will solve all those problems, but he could be a very good complimentary piece in Chicago's system, especially with a good point guard like Derrick Rose.

Blair uses his strong frame to force opponents out of position, and then his long arms clean off the glass. He is one of those players in the mold of Elton Brand and Paul Millsap (not saying he will be as successful, but there is the possibility). I think that Blair is one of the safer picks in the draft and that he will become an excellent role player in the future.
Other Picks: Marcus Thornton

17. Philadelphia: Ty Lawson
Philadelphia will be looking for a player to replace Miller and be a competent backup right now. I had Jrue Holiday slated in at this position, but I think that with where Philadelphia is now Lawson would actually be one of the few players left in the draft that helps them to compete now.
Other Picks: None

18. Minnesota: Gerald Henderson
Someone is going to say "Why does Henderson drop?" It's because there are not many teams that need him after New Jersey traded for Lee and now that Jordan wants Johnson. I really like Henderson and I think that he is going to be a very good player in the NBA. He has great athleticism, but a couple of holes in his game that shouldn't be overlooked. Would fit in well with Memphis were he traded.

19. Atlanta: Jeff Teague
Teague is the best player available at this point in the draft. He is a scorer, and could see some minutes at shooting guard if he is able to get into the lane and be a difference maker in his rookie year. Jeff is one of those "swing-for-the-fences" picks that you really don't know what you are going to get out of him (a star, role player, or nothing). Atlanta lacks a good backup point guard, and Teague would be a good fit behind Bibby. He could eventually become a star, and his skill-set will be a welcome addition to a young Atlanta team.
Other Picks: Paul Harris

20. Utah: Eric Maynor
Maynor has a knack for scoring the ball and is a good distributer as well. He did not measure well but at the point guard position it is less of a problem. He will be a great player in this league if he keeps working on every aspect of his game. I think he is more "nba" ready than most of the guys at this point but that his ceiling is a bit lower. It looks like Jennings might drop to this spot, if he does the Jazz don't think twice.
Other Picks: Ahmad Nivins

21. New Orleans: Omri Casspi
Another upside pick, possibly the second or third best foreign prospect in this draft. He is a physical player and breaks the traditional role of European prospect in that respect.
Other Picks: None

22. Portland: Tyler Hansbrough
We saw it with Millsap, we saw it with Gomes, and we might very well see it again with Hansbrough--an undersized power forward who is not well regarded by scouts, and ends up being one of the biggest steals of the draft. Roy said that the only thing that Portland needed was a backup to LaMarcus Aldridge. I disagree with him, but in any case Hansbrough would fill that role and could become a key part of the team, so it is still a good pickup.
Other Picks: Patrick Mills, Victor Claver, Milenko Tepic

23. Sacramento: Austin Daye
Daye had some tremendous measurements which gives me hope that he will become a good defender in the Andrei Kirilenko/Tayshuan Prince mold. He needs to bulk up, but he has a lot of skill and potential.

24. Dallas: Sam Young
Young is not a sexy pick, but he has a good grasp of the fundamentals of the game. He is a very good defender and has a high basketball IQ. A good pickup to help improve Dallas' bench depth.
Other Picks: Alade Aminu

25. Oklahoma City: Nick Cathelas
The perfect draft and stash player. Nick has a great command of the tempo at the college level, and if he can translate that to the NBA he 'could' be a steal.

26. Chicago: Marcus Thornton
Thornton is a player with some upside, and could be a good role player in the future. He has a nice offensive arsenal but is not as impressive as many of the players taken before him.

27. Memphis: Chase Buddinger
Chase would be a nice addition for the Grizzlies. He would be a competent backup to both Gay and Mayo (something they still don't have) and would provide a spark off the bench with his athleticism and range.

28. Minnesota: Wayne Ellington
Ellington is a very safe pick at this point in the draft. He has a good jump-shot under him but I question how he will adapt to the NBA.

29. New York: Tony Douglas
Douglas is a 6' 1" shooting guard. Maybe he can develop and become an Eddie House type player (except with some defense). I think he would fit well next to a big, slow point guard (so if New York got Rubio Douglas is the perfect fit).

30. Cleveland: Derrick Brown
Brown is extremely athletic, and could be a steal at this point in the draft if he improves his ball handling and 3-point shooting.
Other Picks: Dante Cunningham

------------------------------------------------Second Round-----------------------------------------------

31. Portland: Patrick Mills
Mills proved that he can be a good player in the Olympics--but that performance needs to be taken with a grain of salt because Carlos Arroyo did the same thing in 2004.

32. Washington: Jermaine Taylor
I think that Taylor is one of the few players left at this point in the draft who has a pretty good potential to become a starter on a decent team. He would most likely take DeShawn Stevenson't minutes were Washington to draft him. He is an incredible athlete, and has a nice jump sot. He will be the steal of the second round.

33. Portland: Victor Claver
Claver would be a first round pick if he played in America, but with this year's weak foreign class I think all the Over-seas players other than Rubio and Mills will drop to the second round. Claver will have a role as soon as he comes over to NBA as a skilled combo forward off the bench (and on a team like Detroit, maybe even starting).

34. Denver: Rodrigue Beaubois
There have been a lot of French players who have come to the NBA and made an impact--I don't think Beaubois will be one of them. Has a really bad release on his jumper but incredible athleticism. I think he is too raw to make a difference now, or maybe even ever.
Other Picks: None

35. Detroit: DaJuan Summers
Summers has great size, and could possibly be one of the more talented players in the top of the second round.

36. Memphis: Danny Green
If Green is going to become a player in this league it is going to be in a similar way to Bruce Bowen. He needs to find something other than his shooting to become a great role player--I think that he will do this and become one of the best pickups in the draft.

37. San Antonio: Jonas Jerebko
Jerebko has a great NBA body already. He has been destroying players in the Reebok Eurocamp and looks to be one of the biggest risers in this year's draft. He sounds like a really intelligent guy and I am looking forward to seeing him in the NBA.
Other Picks: Sergey Gladyr, Alade Aminu

38. Sacramento: Darren Collison
Collison is the best point guard left at this point in the draft and could become a good complimentary piece in Sacramento's system. He could be a solid backup/replacement for Beno Udrih.

39. Detroit: Taj Gibson
Taj is another one of those raw players with good shot blocking abilities. He swats away 3 per game at the college level, and pulls down 9 rebounds.

40. Charlotte: Jeff Adrien
Has great length for his height. Could become an energy power forward in the mold of Jason Maxiell. With so many small power forwards entering the NBA the position is being redefined and players under 6-8 are starting to get some serious time--Adrien could continue this new trend.

41. Milwaukee: Jeff Pendergraph
Another one of those solid-fundamental players that never really does anything to impress you, but also does nothing to make you think he sucks. Another guy that sort of compares to Michael Doleac (or Sean Marks).

42. LA Lakers: Dionte Christmas
Salim Stoudamire v.2? If he starts hitting his threes consistently and is smart he could turn into a decent player--but, I just don't see it. He is a decent penetrator but is going to need to add a bit more speed if he is going to get into the lane against NBA players.
Other Picks: Jack McClinton

43. Miami: Josh Heytvelt
Josh is the best center outside of Mullens and Thabeet in this draft. He has good length and a nice mid range game but needs to add to his post game to become an effective center.
Other Picks: AJ Price

44. Detroit: Sergio Llull
Llull is a fantastic player that is going to surprise a lot of people when he comes into the NBA. He has a fantastic jump shot and good court vision--he is similar to his teammate Ricky Rubio, but more athletic and raw. He could see time at both shooting guard and point guard in the NBA. Llull is by far the best point guard left at this point in the draft.

45. Minnesota: DeMarre Carroll
Caroll is the classic tweener, but he is working on the aspects of his game needed to turn himself into a good small forward. If he can bulk up he could become a decent backup power forward for a team in the mold of Wayne Simien (but without the injuries hopefully).

46. Phoenix: Dante Cunningham
I really think that Cunningham is going to become a good role player in the NBA. At the power forward position is is quick, and smart--which make up for his below average size. If Cunningham plays with a lot of energy I would not be surprised to see him be considered one of the steals of the draft.

47. Minnesota: Jack McClinton
Jack possesses one of the best jump-shots in college basketball--outside of that though there is not much else he can do for an NBA team. In college he relied a ton on using floaters and bank shots close to the paint--in the NBA he is going to have a lot harder time getting, and making those shots.

48. Phoenix: Nando De Colo
De Colo has been getting a lot of attention lately and is in my mind the best French prospect this year. I think he has a decent chance of playing through, at the very least, his rookie contract in the NBA.

49. Atlanta: Paul Harris
Harris has an NBA body and is a good defender. He was under-utilized at Syracuse but I think he is a first round talent. His shooting form is decent, but he doesn't shoot the lights out. He averaged 8 rebounds as a 6-4 guard in college. I hope he drops to the Jazz, but I think there is a pretty good possibility that he goes even higher than 49--much like Chris Duhon the year he was drafted.

50. Utah: Ahmad Nivins
Had a beastly year in college, could be an absolute steal, or someone could make a major reach for him in the first round. At this point I have no clue where he goes, I just went with my gut.

51. San Antonio: Luke Neville
Neville is a fluid 7-2 player. He has a nice feel for the game and knows how to use his height but he relies on his height too much rather than his skill. If he plays in the NBA there will be an adjustment time because of the way he plays, and he will never be a dominant center because of his lack of speed, but he will be a very good 10-12 minute type of guy to fill the lane and give your starter and 2nd string guy a break while still being productive (think Aaron Gray).

52. Indiana: Jerel McNeal
Has a nice fade-away jumper but not much else.

53. San Antonio: Sergey Gladyr
All I know about him is that he is a combo guard and played in the Ukrain. I think for him to not have withdrawn he would have had to of gotten a promise from a team to be drafted, and San Antonio is the one that makes the most sense to me; they seemingly always dig up someone on draft day that we have never heard of and turning them into a good/great player.

54. Charlotte: Emir Preldzic
Don't know much about the guy, but he sounds like Hedo Turkoglu type player.

55. Portland: Milenko Tepic
This is another one of the Euro's that really intrigues me. He has that same smooth skill set and size to play 3 or 4 positions, but he also has a solid jumper under him that could make him into a lethal player.

56. Dallas: Alade Aminu
Aminu could be a decent 2nd or 3rd string center in this league if he refines his offensive game and bulks up.

57. Phoenix: Nikos Pappas
An 18 year old point guard who has already shown some promise in international competition would be a good pickup for a team late in the second round--a perfect draft and stash candidate because in 3 years you might end up with someone special.

58. Boston: Lester Hudson
Ummm...28 8 and 4--guys with stats like that rarely go undrafted, and Hudson could actually become a good role player off the bench for a team who needs a scoring point guard.
Other Picks: None

59. LA Lakers: Henk Norel
Norel is one of the better foreign prospects left at this point in the draft. He is already making an impact in the Euroleagues, so he could eventually come over and be a Luis Scola type impact player.

60. Miami: A.J. Price
A point guard with no point guard skills--he can shoot, but will his game translate to the NBA? I think not (Especially with his character issues).

Italicized names indicate players that I *think* will be considered either
a) Steals in the draft
b) Guys that will have really good NBA careers (in the early lottery as the best or second best player on their team, later in the lottery and the rest of the first round as the 3rd or 4th best, 2nd round a chance to be a 6th or 7th man in their prime--there is always an anomaly even in bad drafts--see Michael Redd--I am not predicting that, just who has the chance to be a contributer.)

You will find a lot of this in the second round because of the nature of the draft.

Red type indicates that the player has a good chance of being a bust or will not make it into, or last in the NBA (again, IMO--for foreign players it could be that they would rather play near home and get significant minutes). I am not necessarily saying that a player will be a bust, just that there is a higher likely hood of them not producing than the players around them in the draft.




-------------------------------------------------Actual Draft------------------------------------------------

1. LA Clippers: Blake Griffin (-)
2. Memphis: Hasheem Thabeet (4)
3. Oklahoma City: James Harden (-)
4. Sacramento: Tyreke Evans (-)
5. Minnesota: Ricky Rubio (3)
6. Minnesota: Jonny Flynn (4)
7. Golden State: Stephan Curry (1)
8. New York: Jordan Hill (1)
9. Toronto: DeMarr Derozan (-)
10. Milwaukee: Brandon Jennings (2)
Flip-flopped between Jennings and Flynn for every mock draft.
11. New Jersey: Terrence Williams (-)
12. Charlotte: Gerald Henderson (6)
Had him here until it was rumored Michael Jordan wanted James Johnson (yesterday).
13. Indiana: Tyler Hansbrough (9)
14. Phoenix: Earl Clark (-)
15. Detroit: Austin Daye (6)
16. Chicago: James Johnson (4)
Again, had him here till the Jordan rumor.
17. Philadelphia: Jrue Holliday (7)
Had him here until draft workouts.
18. Denver: Ty Lawson (To Denver) (1)
19. Atlanta: Jeff Teague (-)
20. Utah: Eric Maynor (-)
21. New Orleans: Darren Collison (17)
22. Blazers: Victor Claver (10)
23. Sacramento: Omri Casspi (2)
Had him here till yesterday, had a feeling New Orleans would take him.
24. Dallas: BJ Mullens (8)
25. Oklahoma City: Rodrigue Beaubois (9)
26. Chicago: Taj Gibson (12)
27. Memphis: DeMarre Carroll (21)
28. Minnesota: Wayne Ellington (-)
29. New York: Toney Douglas (-)
30. Cleveland: Christian Eyenga? (31)

31. Portland: Jeff Pendergraph (10)
32. Washington: Jermaine Taylor (traded to Houston) (-)
33. Portland: Dante Cunningham (15)
34. Denver: Sergio Llull (10)
Had him here until Cathelas said he was going over seas, then put him back, then decided Mills wasn't going to drop because of his Olympic performance--then switched my mind, then decided Beaubois was not going in the first round--huge mess here, but Llull is the best prospect out of all the players mentioned.
35. Detroit: DaJuan Summers (-)
36. Memphis: Sam Young (12)
37. San Antonio: DaJuan Blair (23)
38. Sacramento: Jon Brockman (23)
39. Detroit: Jonas Jerebko (2)
40. Charlotte: Derrick Brown (10)
41. Milwaukee: Jodie Meeks (20)
42. LA Lakers: Patrick Beverly (traded to Miami) (19)
43. Miami: Marcus Thornton (traded to New Orleans) (16)
44. Detroit: Chase Buddinger (traded to Houston) (16)
45. Minnesota: Nick Cathelas (20)
Had him here right after he said he was going to play over seas, then put him at Denver's pick, then Oklahoma City's.
46. Cleveland: Danny Green (10)
47. Minnesota: Henk Norel (12)
Had him here until draft-day.
48. Phoenix: Taylor Griffin (13)
49. Atlanta: Sergiy Gladyr (4)
50. Utah: Goran Sutton (11)
51. San Antonio: Jack McClinton (4)
52. Indiana: AJ Price (8)
Had him here till about a week ago.
53. San Antonio: Nando De Colo (5)
54. Charlotte: Robert Vaden (7)
55. Portland: Patrick Mills (24)
56. Dallas: Ahmad Nivins (6)
57. Phoenix: Emir Preldzic (3)
58. Boston: Lester Hudson (-)
59. LA Lakers: Chinemelu Elonu (2)
60. Miami: Robert Dozier (1)

Correct: 13/60
Should have gone with my gut: 9/60
1-4 off (not counting players I thought would be undrafted): 13/60
Same team, different spot: 2/60

[babyjax13]

Well, Memphis just screwed that up.

[babyjax13]

And so did pretty much everyone else...

[babyjax13]

And now Young is off the board.