Early First Edition: RIEHLDEAL's 2010 Big Board

[riehldeal]

As of 4/29/2010

1. John Wall
2. Al-Farouq Aminu
3. Wesley Johnson
4. Evan Turner
5. Greg Monroe
6. DeMarcus Cousins
7. Derrick Favors
8. Donatas Motiejunas
9. Patrick Patterson
10. Gordon Hayward
11. Willie Warren
12. Ed Davis
13. Cole Aldrich
14. Craig Brackins
15. Epke Udoh
16. Hassan Whiteside
17. Luke Babbitt
18. Armon Johnson
19. Xavier Henry
20. Larry Sanders
21. Solomon Alabi
22. Avery Bradley
23. Damion James
24. Gani Lawal
25. Dominque Jones
26. Devin Ebanks
27. Stanley Robinson
28. Daniel Orton
29. Elliot Williams
30. James Anderson

[riehldeal]

My thoughts on the top 10:

Wall- Yikes! Truly special player. Wish the film I saw had more jump shots but the ones I did see looked good mechanically, making me feel the sky is the limit. Never going to be a big strong athlete but his frame is "basketball strong" with room for some small improvements... plus speed kills

Alabi- Never saw him play this year... big mistake on my part. I was shocked by what I saw from this kid. Would have been a lottery pick this year. Understands post positioning and presents a great target and shows solid hands on the catch. Soft touch in the post and out to 15 ft. Limited to going over his left shoulder in the post but is still young and just needs more coaching and the hook with his right is deadly so he already is ahead of many NCAA bigs trying to make the transition in that he has a NBA ready post move. Needs to get stronger in his lower body and core to help maintain position and to increase his area and strength on the boards.

Aminu- Special talent who just needs further refinement of a few areas. Dude just needs to lock himself in the gym and shoot jump shots all day and he will be a monster! Great combination of strength and quickness.

Motiejunas- An absolutely complete offensive player... can do everything with the basketball and is 7 ft tall. Frame worries me about his strength potential but it is impossible to ignore the talent at this point. Release point on his jump shot could be better but it is quick and he appears comfortable stationary and off the bounce. Great footwork in the post with an ability over both shoulders and with both hands. Ball skills are solid. Born to play basketball and it appears he loves the game and loves to compete. Would like to get a better look at his feet on defense to better gauge whether he could realistically play/defend SF (or at least for stretches)... if the answer is yes, then his stock goes even higher

Favors- Not sure why people are talking about this kid as a possible SF... sure he is only 6-9 but his frame is going to fill out amazingly and he should have no trouble maintaining his agility, explosiveness (if anything it will improve), and quickness. Shot blocking wizard who rebounds the **** out of the ball. Would like to see him in iso post defense to evaluate his positional defensive ability (next year will be telling). Shows some potential with his stroke from midrange which will be key for him as a prospect. As he gets more coaching and experience against better competition, he will improve in taking full advantage of his speed/quickness in the post (needs to up his handle first, that is holding him back) combined with his ridiculous length (his release points at the end of the day will be or at least should be insane) to be a high % look at the basket machine. Lacks overall offensive polish. Not sure if this is something that will improve with time/coaching/experience or is a genuine flaw in him as a player in terms of his game feel and connection between his mind and body... answer to this could move him either up or down the list

Warren- Came into watching film on him skeptical from my one viewing of his game this season. I was wrong to be. He is an inch of height and more length with a better wingspan away from being #2 or 3 on this list. Great shooter (albeit maybe a little streaky) but his mechanics take the ball too low down to his shoulder (slowing his release just a touch, although not enough to me to be a problem... and making me question his ability to get off middle game jumpers off the bounce in the NBA, although not as a guy like Kyle Weaver). Strong as an ox with the basketball in his hands. Absorbs contact and maintains his triple threat ability and feel for the game even with a guy on his hip, which is rare and special. Good, not great vision. Good finisher at the rim. Great in the pick n' roll. Only things holding him back are a middle game and concerns about his length on defense guarding NBA 2's

Aldrich- The most NBA ready big man on the list. If he had some additional quickness with his feet, he would be even higher. Unorthodox and slow release but he is capable nonetheless from 15 ft (good FT shooter as well). Good feel for the game in the post (understands angles, defensive rotations, etc.. good passer out of the double... very well coached individual), good footwork down low even if not elite in its quickness or explosiveness, and decent to solid touch on the ball. Great release point and separation on his right handed hook but I question his turnaround jumper counter move over his right shoulder (it is slow with little NBA level separation created... however, his funky release actually may make it work)... Quicker and a better athlete than you would think in terms of north and south (including starting and stopping north and south as well) but it is some lateral concerns that remain (defending the NBA pick n' roll / pick n' pop?). Wide frame (he has a big presence and eats up space... doesn't play too vertical negating his true overall size like a lot of other young bigs) that will only get stronger. Lock him in the gym with a plyometrics trainer

Brackins- Special. His frame (thin and narrow) is really my only major concern. A match up nightmare for opposing PF's with his deadly stroke (good solid quick mechanics... translates great in the pick n' pop and out in transition). Long and very athletic. Decent to solid ball skills (but could definitely still improve by tightening them up and becoming more efficient with it -- an improved handle will better allow him to take full advantage of his apparent great first step for his size and position). Ability over both shoulders in the post with that same great touch he shows on the perimeter. Can he guard the post and can he get and maintain post position? Two big questions... improved handle and overall strength/size = top 5 guy

Ebanks- A do it all. I am very pleased with how Coach Huggins has handled Devin. Gone is the overly perimeter oriented prospect who never took full advantage of what God gave him. Has a great feel and touch at the rim. A better shooter than you think (just needs more reps and more confidence). Silky smooth athlete with crazy length. Potential defensive monster. Hits the glass on both ends. Thin but not "bad thin" and I see room for development in his body (at least in his upper body -- lower body is more questionable... however, improvement in his base and core strength is going to be crucial). Shot creation is not a strength right now because of his limited ball handling ability. Very mechanical and thinks too much when handling the basketball; not being the reactive and dynamic player he could be off the bounce. However, he is excellent at moving without the basketball, showing some nice BBIQ in his cuts and dives at the rim. Improves his handle and the sky is the limit

Henson- Ball skills (period). Just kidding, there is more to Mr. Henson but his amazing ball skills are definitely one of the main reasons why he is this high on my list. It is very rare for a 6-10 kid to be so fluid and comfortable handling the basketball. How he handles it in isolation against bigger/stronger players next year will be telling (will his frame/strength limit his use of his handle?). Good, not great, athlete, both fluid and explosive... just needs more strength. Based on reports, it sounds like he is very competitive and shows a toughness you would not expect, which is good to hear because he will be physically tested for sure (super thin). Can step out and hit the jump shot out to 18-20 feet. Makes great use of his handle to create shot opportunities. Good shot blocker but what about his positional post defense (TBD). Poor release point on his shot (slightly low and out in front) and a slight hitch. However, his size, length, and athleticism compensate for it to allow for enough shot separation (at least in HS). Ability over both shoulders, showing good touch on hooks with both hands and a turnaround jumper. Doesn't get or maintain great post position and presents a poor target. SF or PF? His greatest competitive advantage would be at the 4 but it is questionable whether he will ever really be able to add much more bulk. Never will be incredible hulk but must show a commitment to the weight room to at least get some muscle. As a SF, as good as his above mentioned handle is, it will have to get lower/tighten/more efficient to be as effective against NBA 3's. Does not have a great or explosive first step. A better prospect (right where I have him) as a projected PF, less so as a SF ... could easily see him slipping out of my top 10 down to about 12-14... but lets see what he does next year and go from there

[Cammo101]

As an FSU fan, I love Alabi. But, he has a lot of work to do to become a top 5 pick.

[riehldeal]

His ceiling is so high it doesn't exist

[vincecarter4pres]

I can't respect any big board out this early that doesn't have Evan Turner top 10, if not higher.

[riehldeal]

I can't respect any big board out this early that doesn't have Evan Turner top 10, if not higher.

fine by me... not looking for any respect

quite frankly so far I am encouraged when I hear people on here disagree with me because more times than not I have been right

and the highest at this pt I could see Evan at as a pure prospect is 12 or 13 ... he is awkwardly caught between the 2 and 3 positions where flaws are apparent at either one (ala Derrick Byars)

[vincecarter4pres]

BS. Kid is nasty, he should be between 6 and 10, probably 7 or 8.

Edit: I don't understand how a 6'3 SG makes it above Turner. Laughable.

[vincecarter4pres]

Christ, you have friggin' Singler above him.

[Joel Embust]

VC4Pres is being a dick.

Decent mock, can't wait for college basketball as it will feature a lot of amazing NBA prospects.

[vincecarter4pres]

I'm not trying to be a dick, just sticking up for my boy.

Turner's going to be a beast this year.

[Villanova1L]

Think Ed Davis is a little low, but based on past production I can see why. I think with a more prominent role this year at UNC he'll end up in the top 5 (maybe top 3 w/ Wall and Donatas/Al-Farouq)

[riehldeal]

Vill1L- always meant to ask, are you in law school there? I was a 1L this past year at Marquette

And I agree that Davis may be too low. I am going to keep him status quo until I see how much he has improved his body this summer. I was impressed by what I saw from him in terms of touch on the basketball and his fluid athleticism but never was blown away like some. We'll see... but as a projection, the highest I could see him FOR ME is at 8 and pushing Brackins down a spot because Brackins frame is not as good as Davis' (not that Ed is a body builder or anything)

And as for the Evan Turner thing... like I said I could see him moving up to 12 (which would put him in front of Singler). And there are ways to stand up for your guy without coming across as a punk

Villanova1L, what do you think about the Turner debate? I am interested in seeing if anyone else on here sees what I see... usually I can find a couple others

[riehldeal]

oh and I am telling you... watch the Jon Leuer kid on Wisconsin, heard it here first

[flash22]

Stevenson needs to be on this list and I feel that Henry's going to rise

[riehldeal]

Stevenson needs to be on this list and I feel that Henry's going to rise

you mean Lance Stephenson? yeah, I am working on him right now actually

as for Henry... I would tend to agree (liked him right away) but I am going to wait on moving him up because I need to see him in top physical condition again

[vincecarter4pres]

Evan Turner would have went top 5 if he declared this draft, he's top 10 on a big board unless you're just trying to be "different".

I'm not trying to be a dick, sometimes I just am and don't realize it, nor usually care.

[riehldeal]

I have consulted with some friends of mine and for the record I am not alone in my thoughts on Turner... and these are the people that make the actual call/decision on draft day. Consensus was that Turner has some warts as a prospect. They would not go further but agreed with my basic premise. I was looking for validation and I got it.

But lets just agree to disagree on Turner.

[cjx]

Hi Riehldeal:

In your opinion, how do Ed Davis and John Henson compare as prospects so far, and what kind of gap exists between them with regard to talent, versatility, toughness, etc.? Thanks for your time.

[i<3basketball]

In your opinion, how do Ed Davis and John Henson compare as prospects so far, and what kind of gap exists between them with regard to talent, versatility, toughness, etc.? Thanks for your time.

I'll chime in: Right now, Davis is the better defender, Davis is stronger, Davis is a better rebounder, Henson is more skilled offensively and has more ball skills at the moment. Both are likely strictly PF's, but Henson could play SF in spot situations. Davis is probably the tougher of the two at the moment because his body is better developed. Overall Davis is the better prospect as of now, we'll see what Henson does this year.

[riehldeal]

Hi Riehldeal:

In your opinion, how do Ed Davis and John Henson compare as prospects so far, and what kind of gap exists between them with regard to talent, versatility, toughness, etc.? Thanks for your time.

i<3basketball uses a key phrase... "right now"

if I had to assess the two right now... I would say that Henson is the superior prospect BUT his physical limitations appear to be of the bad variety (it is debatable how much if any real useful strength he can add to his frame... in serious need of additional core and lower body strength).... Davis is stronger, tougher, a better rebounder, and has the more polished offensive game in the post. I think Henson will be at least a two year player at UNC and I am going to be closely following his transition to the NCAA

Talent and versatility go to Henson but Davis has as of now the bigger package of translatable nba skills. BUT as you can see by my placement of Davis, I need to see more things from him, I feel he is being overrated by some.

Random notes- Both are strictly power forwards to me (even Henson- good first step for a 4 not a 3, his ball skills become less effective at SF to me, won't be surprised to see him struggle with ball protection off the bounce initially because it's a tad loose, and more in the gut/eye sense of evaluating- his movements just appear PF'ish). Henson needs to tweak his release pt and form to take better/full advantage of his size and improve his looks at the basket off the bounce/in traffic

Overall, much like many other prospects in this draft (Brackins, Donatas, Ebanks, etc), the talent is clearly there but the physical limitations are there as well.... BUT with that said, skilled players can make up for that and be just fine, just gotta figure out which ones.

Hopefully that helped some... more so than with any other players in this draft, these two are guys that I definitely need another season of exposure to. In short though, if I had to play and win an NBA game today then I take Davis... if it was as an overall prospect, I roll the dice with Henson being able to gain at least some strength/size to better "root" his athleticism and provide more powerful explosiveness