Monta Ellis as a keeper

hamncheese · Post #1 » by **hamncheese** » Tue Apr 7, 2009 8:43 pm

H2H, 12-team, std 9-cat league. Get to keep 5 players.

Have Amare Stoudemire, Brandon Roy, and Rashard Lewis as 3 of my keepers. Under consideration for the 4th and 5th spots are Jameer Nelson, Stephen Jackson, and Monta Ellis. Other possible, but unlikely, players are Delonte West, Andrew Bogut, Mike Dunleavy, and Kevin Love. Leaning towards Nelson and Ellis, with monitoring reports on Ellis's ankle until I have to submit my keeper choices.

Post #2 » by **Curtis Lemansky** » Tue Apr 7, 2009 9:40 pm

Ellis is a good choice.

I'm more iffy about Nelson. He had a great year but I dont know whether he can repeat this after coming off such a big lay-off due to injury. Remember that he was a mediocre fantasy player before this year and this could be a fluke year and his next season output could be hindered by his injury status.
Bogut and Dunleavy have the same injury concerns but Nelson's fantasy upside is more than those two so they dont merit any consideration over Nelson.
Delonte is solid but still not keeper worthy in those settings.

So I'm torn between Nelson(relatively young,more fantasy upside,only one good and injury questions);Jackson(big flaws in turnovers/fg%,also Warriors is a mess,they have too many scorers/swingmen so some of them may get traded or lose playing time,relatively old but very good production in 6 ats);Love(young,dependable,risk averse,has upside to get better(but his fantasy upside is limited since he doesnt block shots or overcome those deficit with any other position contribution (like Memo does in 3's or Boozer does in steals) so his fantasy line may be limited to great points/rebounds/fg%/ft% and relatively low turnovers.

It is hard to make a decision but I'd go either with Nelson or Love(You have high fg%;low turnover keepers so Jax may make a bad fit for that team). Right now I think Nelson is the best way to go.

hamncheese · Post #3 » by **hamncheese** » Wed Apr 8, 2009 1:34 am

Thanks. Nice assessment. SJax has good value but his two biggest weaknesses hurt the rest of my keepers, and at 31 and beat up, he could be in for a rapid decline. Nelson did show some signs of 6th round or better potential at the end of his rookie season and his sophomore season. His 3rd season was a major regression. He did bounce back a little his 4th year but his father's accidental death in the preseason probably affected him. Van Gundy kept him under 30 mpg, and outside his scoring, showed signs of the numbers he put up this season. I feel the same way about Love, and one concern with him his how he fits next to a healthy Al Jefferson. They play the same position (PF) as neither is a C. I think Love is capable of developing 3 range, so I think we'll see that down the line and he's a good passer.

DNYLkiller · Post #4 » by **DNYLkiller** » Fri Apr 10, 2009 4:28 pm

Not even considering Bogut? Byaaaaaam

Post #5 » by **Young_Star11** » Mon Apr 13, 2009 10:03 am

I'm cold on Monta.

Jameer and the time share with Rafer? Has that been considered?

Definitely give K Love a go, I think he can only get better.

Post #6 » by **Curtis Lemansky** » Mon Apr 13, 2009 3:22 pm

I dont think Rafer is good enough to still playing time from Nelson.Nelson was getting 31 mpg this season anyhow and I dont believe that will drop below 3. Even though Rafer has been a viable replacement in Nelson's place,he simply isn't good enough to threaten Nelson's playing time.

Morever there are going to be changes in Orlando. Hedo will opt out his contract which means either that Nelson will have a much bigger role in offense with his departure or Hedo will resign which means Orlando will have to cut some salary in order to avoid the luxury tax ie. some of the Alston,Battie,Anthony Johnson,Redick and maybe even Pietrus can be dealt away due to financial reasons.

Love can only get better,I agree with that but I dont see how much help he can offer fantasy wise without blocking any shots or compensating that without any additional contribution in steals or 3's.

Bogut has missed 46 games,was disappointing in per game averages and continues to be a liability in ft%. I dont think he warrants consideration over Ellis or Nelson. Simply put,all three have injury concerns however Nelson/Ellis have far higher fantasy upside than Bogut unless he starts shooting free throws better than 57.1%.

hamncheese · Post #7 » by **hamncheese** » Tue Apr 14, 2009 4:23 am

One other dark horse on my team is Anthony Randolph. He's got the potential to be a fantasy stud, but it's still too soon to know for sure. I'm curious as to hear what you all think abou the kid.

Post #8 » by **Curtis Lemansky** » Tue Apr 14, 2009 10:01 am

Love him,great upside.

I hate Don Nelson and try to avoid his players as much as possible to keep my sanity however I really like AR. It would be a tremendous risk but I think I'd take him as my 4th keeper over Nelson.

Post #9 » by **Young_Star11** » Tue Apr 14, 2009 10:56 am

I'm loving AR. George, you are a Ws fan. You will know the hoopla surrounding AR, but the boy is playing really well already. I think he can only get better. Think Lamar Odom already.

Post #10 » by **Curtis Lemansky** » Tue Apr 14, 2009 12:08 pm

I think a combo of Odom-Josh Smith sounds even better.

hamncheese · Post #11 » by **hamncheese** » Wed Apr 15, 2009 11:00 am

I don't want being a W's fan to cloud my judgment on AR. Love the kid and his potential. Clearly talented and seems like attitude (and Nellie) is what could hold him back. Definitely thinking Tyrus Thomas type numbers with maybe better assists (higher TOs?) for next season, and the Odom comparison is good because AR has the potential to play a point-forward role and distribute. But does that make him a top 60 player for next season? Clearly his numbers over the past month show this.

The good thing with my keeper selections is that injuries knocked me down to 10th this year (last year, I was 4th regular season and won the playoffs) so I pick 3 in the first round and could get one of the players I decide not to keep. In that case, I could go wtih AR as my 4th keeper and then Ellis over Nelson (based on talent and hoping Ellis is over his injuries) as my 5th. I should then have a good enough pick up at 3, that if AR regresses (or Nelson continues to play mind games), keeping AR won't hurt me as much.

lakerz12 · Post #12 » by **lakerz12** » Wed Apr 15, 2009 8:28 pm

If he avoids injury, Monta is gunna be a beast next year.

Post #13 » by **Young_Star11** » Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:20 am

lakerz12 wrote:If he avoids injury, Monta is gunna be a beast next year.

Yes, no question about it

hardcore · Post #14 » by **hardcore** » Sat Apr 25, 2009 3:54 pm

A steal, if you get him after round 4

Dark Star · Post #15 » by **Dark Star** » Sat May 9, 2009 3:57 pm

Ellis and Jax. Jax will continue to tear it up as long as he's in GState. Nelson is a good bet too but shoulder's are sketchy. Love is def another one to consider but you can replace his contributions much easier than you can a Jax or Nelson.

Anyone who avoids GSW's should reconsider. I've started Baron, Jax, Ellis, and Beidrins on several successful teams. Any team that scores 120 a game is gonna have some crazy stats to go along with it.

Randolph should be an all star in 2 or so years....maybe next year, I hope.