2010 Rookies fantasy impact

[DNYLkiller]

Let's discuss this after the draft on thursday

[floppymoose]

If a C falls to the Warriors, he could get more run than usual next season.

[TheExpat]

OK... interested to see some of these thoughts, as I have picks 8 & 10 in my dynasty draft, and am looking to win this season. My top ten rookie fantasy guys.

1. John Wall - Should start at PG for the Wiz and be a regular surefire fantasy start from day 1. I hope Livingston ends up moving to a good situation, as I have him eating up a roster spot right now.

2. Evan Turner - Another guy that moves into the starting line-up. Talks of trading Iggy make him an even better fantasy option.

3. Demarcus Cousins - Huge. Skilled. Could be the best fantasy guy here if he can stay in shape. I believe Dalembert will be traded as well, and if that happens, Cousins will likely see 30+ minutes a game.

4. Aminu - I hope I'm right about him here, as he could fall to 8th, and might be my pick. Going to the Clippers where he will have plenty of minutes from the get-go was an ideal situation for him. I hope he can develop his shooting range. I think he has more of an impact this year than Wesley Johnson.

5. Greg Monroe- Another guy that should start right away as the Pistons look to rebuild. Charlie V is not a threat to his minutes. Charlie V... fail. I probably should have put Monroe at number 4, but I know he'll be gone at my 8th pick so I am hating on him.

6. Wesley Johnson - The Timberwolves roster is in a state of flux right now, and what the team plans to do with Ronnie Brewer, and how they project Martell Webster will affect Johnson's first year impact, and there is still an Al Jefferson trade seemingly on the horizon. That said, I'd rather have Johnson two seasons from now.

7. Epke Udo - I don't feel the Warriors take him here if they don't plan on using him a lot this season. The horrible season that Biedrins had made me think he must have fallen out of favour in GS, and Randolph is more suitable at PF. I think Udoh will get a lot of burn.

8. Cole Aldrich - Getting traded to Oklahoma was a nice move for his fantasy value. I've been thinking that the Thunder have already found their gem big man in Ibaka, but Aldrich will give him a run for that title. Given that the other bigs for consideration are Collison and Kristic, I think Aldrich will be usable in most fantasy formats this season.

9. Larry Sanders - A defensive specialist, but I think he gives you some great defensive numbers from the gate... blocks, steals, and rebounds. This guy is an athlete and will be counted on by the Bucks to anchor that defense beside Bogut. Not gonna get you many points, but I think he will be one of the best players out of this draft in terms of big man numbers.

9. Derrick Favors - I've always thought he was projected to go too high, and New Jersey's rotation is not set. Pairing up with Brook Lopez looks good on paper, but Brook will be the scoring big man in New Jersey. I think Favors gives you good defensive numbers, but you are better off to look to LArry Sanders for those.

10. Paul George - The Indiana situation is interesting. Rush & Dunleavy seem to be the main obstacles to George having an impactful rookie campaign. I think he is a year or two from being a real fantasy contributor. I have Rush on my rookie squad, so I am going to have to give him a long look as a handcuff.

Honorable Mention: Ed Davis... if he picks up Bosh's burn he should have better than thought of numbers. I'll have to give him a long look as well as I consider adding Amir Johnson with my waiver selection.

[Curtis Lemansky]

My 2010 stats prediction for top-15 fantasy rookies:

[Curtis Lemansky]

There is a column for the turnovers which doesnt appear here. So click the picture to see that column as well.

[floppymoose]

7. Epke Udo - I don't feel the Warriors take him here if they don't plan on using him a lot this season. The horrible season that Biedrins had made me think he must have fallen out of favour in GS, and Randolph is more suitable at PF. I think Udoh will get a lot of burn.

Biedrins is such a strange case. As a total GS nut, I've seen almost every nba game in his career. Last year was just weird. He had a very debilitating combination of injuries: osteo pubis and a sports hernia. When he finally came back, he clearly wasn't himself. But the 16% ft%, which had been hovering around 60% for much of the previous season, was clearly a mental issue.

The question is: was the mental issue due to the injuries, or is it the beginning of a longer term "Nick Anderson" problem? If it's the latter then his fantasy career is done, because the free throw problems are making him shy away from the ball on offense. But if he gets his mojo back he can be a good fantasy center.

As for Udoh, I don't have a strong feeling for his rookie line... but my best guess is that he won't warrant a spot on most fantasy teams if the other four main bigs (Biedrins/Turiaf/Randolph/Wright) stay healthy.

If you want to take a chance on a PF sleeper in a later round, consider Wright. He looked *very* good in summer league last season before he re-injured the shoulder. The shoulder injury was something that probably should have had surgery the preceding season when he first had it. But he and the doctors decided to try therapy instead, and that ended up being a mistake. Now that he's had the surgery, it should no longer be a risk to separate. Those who have seen him say he has more muscle mass up top now, which will help prevent other upper body injury.

I'll give an update on both Wright and Udoh after summer league this year - they'll be playing.

[TheExpat]

7. Epke Udo - I don't feel the Warriors take him here if they don't plan on using him a lot this season. The horrible season that Biedrins had made me think he must have fallen out of favour in GS, and Randolph is more suitable at PF. I think Udoh will get a lot of burn.

Biedrins is such a strange case. As a total GS nut, I've seen almost every nba game in his career. Last year was just weird. He had a very debilitating combination of injuries: osteo pubis and a sports hernia. When he finally came back, he clearly wasn't himself. But the 16% ft%, which had been hovering around 60% for much of the previous season, was clearly a mental issue.

The question is was the mental issue is due to the injuries, or is it the beginning of a longer term "Nick Anderson" problem? If it's the latter then his fantasy career is done, because the free throw problems are making him shy away from the ball on offense. But if he gets his mojo back he can be a good fantasy center.

As for Udoh, I don't have a strong feeling for his rookie line... but my best guess is that he won't warrant a spot on most fantasy teams if the other four main bigs (Biedrins/Turiaf/Randolph/Wright) stay healthy.

If you want to take a chance on a PF sleeper in a later round, consider Wright. He looked *very* good in summer league last season before he re-injured the shoulder. The shoulder injury was something that probably should have had surgery the preceding season when he first had it. But he and the doctors decided to try therapy instead, and that ended up being a mistake. Now that he's had the surgery, it should no longer dislocate. Those who have seen him say he has more muscle mass up top now, which will help prevent other upper body injury.

I'll give an update on both Wright and Udoh after summer league this year - they'll be playing.

Funny you say that. The dynasty league is full keeper, so last season, as I was near the bottom, I dropped Dorrel Wright in favour of Brandon, and have him stashed on my roster. So, I took my flyer on him last year. I hope he comes back strong.

I drafted Xavier Henry and put him on my taxi squad, traded pick 10 and a 2nd rounder next year for Paul Pierce. Dropped Moute from my taxi to take Warren with a late pick. I just need something to happen with my PG situation: 14 team league...

PG: Calderon, Bibby, Livingston
PG/SG: Jack, Ellis
SG: DeRozan, Weems
SG/SF: Pierce
SF: Deng
SF/PF: Yi
PF: Landry, Wright
PF/C: Stoudamire, Duncan
C: Yao, O'Neil

Taxi: B. Rush, D. Greene, Henry, W. Warren

Actually... not a lot of reason for optimism : (

[DNYLkiller]

My 2010 stats prediction for top-15 fantasy rookies:

Maybe I'm simply not schooled enough on Evan Turner, but I've seen at least a few projections now that have him pulling in 7+ rebounds this season and I just don't see that happening.

[Curtis Lemansky]

Philly is probably going to play smallball with Thad Young at 4, Brand at 5, Turner and Iggy on the wings and Jrue running the point. Since Brand's rebounding ability has regressed steadily and Thad was barely an average rebounder for a small forward, I'd say it is very likely for Turner to end up with 7 rpg

[Joel Embust]

7.5 rebounds for Evan is too optimistic. I'd say between 5 and 6. We'll see though.

[DNYLkiller]

I am taking Cousins in my keepers draft, he looks too good not to

[writersblock]

Anyone think Ed Davis will take on primary PF duties in Toronto? It seems like he's having a solid Summer league so far.

[gsw_ftw]

wall cousins keepers in the draft

[TheExpat]

Anyone think Ed Davis will take on primary PF duties in Toronto? It seems like he's having a solid Summer league so far.

I don't think so...

The Raptors appear poised to give Amir Johnson most of the burn there, and he's earned it. Davis should see decent rookie minutes though. Bargnani and Amir will eat most of the PF/C minutes, leaving Davis as the first big off the bench. I also expect the newly acquired Kleiza to get some burn at PF, and that they will sign/trade for another rotation big.

I think I would leave Davis alone even in the final rounds of a draft... look for Amir late though.

[writersblock]

Anyone think Ed Davis will take on primary PF duties in Toronto? It seems like he's having a solid Summer league so far.

I don't think so...

The Raptors appear poised to give Amir Johnson most of the burn there, and he's earned it. Davis should see decent rookie minutes though. Bargnani and Amir will eat most of the PF/C minutes, leaving Davis as the first big off the bench. I also expect the newly acquired Kleiza to get some burn at PF, and that they will sign/trade for another rotation big.

I think I would leave Davis alone even in the final rounds of a draft... look for Amir late though.

I highly doubt Kleiza will play PF...he's really an SG/SF.

As for Amir: how has he earned it? He played ok down the stretch last year, but when the Raptors needed him, early on, he was completely inconsistent for too often.

[TheExpat]

Anyone think Ed Davis will take on primary PF duties in Toronto? It seems like he's having a solid Summer league so far.

I don't think so...

The Raptors appear poised to give Amir Johnson most of the burn there, and he's earned it. Davis should see decent rookie minutes though. Bargnani and Amir will eat most of the PF/C minutes, leaving Davis as the first big off the bench. I also expect the newly acquired Kleiza to get some burn at PF, and that they will sign/trade for another rotation big.

I think I would leave Davis alone even in the final rounds of a draft... look for Amir late though.

I highly doubt Kleiza will play PF...he's really an SG/SF.

As for Amir: how has he earned it? He played ok down the stretch last year, but when the Raptors needed him, early on, he was completely inconsistent for too often.

I suggest Kleiza (apparently not a done deal now) will see some PF minutes because the Raptors have a fairly thin rotation of front court players.

I think Amir has earned it. He has provided hustle, heart and athleticism and is a defensive presence that the Raptors have lacked. He came out of highschool, has paid his dues, and at the end of the season, when he got starter minutes, he put up very nice numbers. I think he has earned it... certainly more than Davis has... but you are entitled to your opinion.

[Curtis Lemansky]

Expect Davis to get around 26-28 mpg. He is clearly their 3rd best big at the moment behind Amir and Bargnani. Amir also has a propensity to foul a lot so Davis should get plenty of burn right from the gate. I still stand my prediction of 7/8 along with 1.5 bpg for Davis.

[plonden]

Wesley Johnson seems like he is going to have a very fantasy friendly stat line (steals and blocks). I think he is pretty NBA ready too at 23 years of age so could end up out performing his ADP.