Best Rookies to draft in deep keeper leagues

[fdefore]

I've got pick #10 in a custom scoring H2H Keeper League. So far, as might be expected, Wall, Turner, Favors, Johnson, Cousins, Monroe and Splitter are gone. I'm trying to figure if there is anyone worth taking here or just seeing who is left once the season actually starts.

**How much time is Cole Aldrich going to see this year? Same for Larry Sanders?

**Jordan Crawford seems like he could be a decent get but that seems extremely early for him.

**Paul George, Ed Davis, Xavier Henry, Eric Bledsoe all look like they're several seasons away from being useful. Aminu and Patterson have been less than impressive in the preseason but it's only preseason.

So what rookies would be worth taking at #10 or should I just pick up a vet like a Kleiza or Marvin Williams?

[vincecarter4pres]

I've never done a keeper league, so I don't really understand the value of the picks and your post is pretty vague as to who is out there to draft and how many slots you keep, but...

I feel like Paul George may become just flatout studly. That said, he's likely to be up and down this season and overall pretty meh at best, it will take 2 or 3 seasons for him to breakout.

I like Larry Sanders in the long run as well. He has a chance at some decent minutes this year with Bogut starting the year out hurt and being injury prone overall and Drew Gooden is always a candidate to go down or an extended period of time.

Henry could be a sleeper too. I think Mayo has a high chance to be traded this year and Xavier should get a solid chunk of time off the bench no matter what. He has a pretty nice upside, yet he's quite NBA ready figuring he can stroke the hell out of it, is athletic, can get out on the break, has the size, lateral quicks and skills to defend well above average, he's a solid passer even though he's not much of an actual playmaker and overall he's a heady player. I think he gets a consistent 20mpg almost from the jump. They can get minutes out of him at the 2 and 3.

Cole Aldrich will probably be a nice player down the road in real life and a solid contributor right from the jump, but I don't see much more then 5/7/1.5 in maybe 25mpg, if he finds his way into that many minutes, he still has to beat out Curly and Collison and even Ibaka in small ball lineups.

[fdefore]

Sorry, I wasn't intending to be vague.

Some info about the league. It's 24 teams of 12 players (so guys like Shane Battier are always on rosters). The league values per minute production (as each position gets a certain number of minutes to fill). Individual stats are weighted differently: 1 defensive rebound = 1 fantasy point but 1 offensive rebound = 2 fantasy points (as an example, last year Vince Carter provided 28 fantasy points per game and 0.90 fantasy points per minute). Each team keeps 9 from season to season (10 if you want to sacrifice your first rounder). My team has Deron Williams as cornerstone; the other parts are productive but the next three contributors have are hovering around 30-35 years old (Billups, Garnett, Yao) -- way too productive to just release but too old to really net anything valuable in return.

As to who is out there, I could go through the long list of vets (that range from Beno Udrih to Dominic McGuire) but I was hoping to use my first on a rookie who could might be able to contribute somewhat from the start but obviously more down the line. That's why Larry Sanders and Cole Aldrich came to mind because both for one reason or another could in theory find themselves getting significant playing time this year. I have more faith in Sanders abilities strengths but he seems really raw. As I said, Jordan Crawford seems like he could be a nice pickup but #10 seems really early for him).

So what other rookies do you (and others) have the most faith in? Am I undervaluing guys like Aminu, Hayward, Bledsoe, Bradley, Henry or Davis? Would you go rookie here or would you pick up productive vets to make a run at winning now?

[FantasyMVP]

How many players do you get to keep? If there's absolutely no chance that this rookie will be kept then I would burn the pick on a Kleiza/Korver type vet. However if you do plan on keeping the rook then you might be happy with my answer.

Timofey Mozgov! I didn't see you list him as being taken, and he's likely going to be the Knicks starting center on opening night. So he'll give you some boards and blocks right off the bat, while having loads of potential for the future.

Hayward might start so that could be decent. Aminu actually picked up his preseason play and has good defensive potential. Jordan Crawford has to fight Johnson, Jamaal Crawford, Bibby, and Teague for minutes. So I would just pass up his play as "only preseason".

[azuresou1]

I would go with veterans who still have upside and are relatively young, like a Marvin Williams or a Yi Jianlian.

I really like Jordan Crawford, but he has no value unless Jamal Crawford gets traded or Joe Johnson has an injury.