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I will start:

Rashard Lewis
Jason Terry
Allen Iverson

This is a great idea for a thread. I thought about starting one, but will build off this one...but will add a qualification: Players not to pick as high as you think.

First, gotta agree with Shard and Iverson (Iverson wasn't even worth owning last year), and Lewis has been a yearly disappointment.

Gotta disagree with Terry...he's a solid guy off the bench.

As for a few guys who I think shouldn't be picked (as high)

Villanueva: ok, he's a yearly disappointment

Roy? I gotta say, I'm worried about portland...stockpiling shooting guards. Roy also has an injury history that can't be ignored.

Jason Richardson: Too many good shooters on that team now. He's still worth a pick, but not in the first few rounds.

Bibby: I think this is the first year Bibby should be left off rosters in 14 team leagues.

Kenyon Martin: Injured and now with Al Harrington, he's not going to be as effective.

oj mayo-50 =too soon

Tyson Chandler = too many injuries, Brendan Haywood is just as good a defender at this point, and much better offensively. Still baffled as to why the Mavs traded for this guy after re-signing Haywood.

Players whom I expect to see a significant decline in their production:

Gerald Wallace
Monta Ellis
Zach Randolph
Carl Landry
Caron Butler
Al Harrington
Carlos Delfino

Greg Oden is he worth the risk? For a last pick maybe. But in my opinion, you need to know all the good players within the top 150 at least, so in the last few rounds, you still pick good. You should not reach to get a rookie as well unless you are sure of the stats he will produce.

If you draft all good players you are in very good shape, even championship teams have a few iffy picks.

For example, I overlooked rip hamilton in a draft.

kingscourt wrote:Greg Oden is he worth the risk? For a last pick maybe. But in my opinion, you need to know all the good players within the top 150 at least, so in the last few rounds, you still pick good. You should not reach to get a rookie as well unless you are sure of the stats he will produce.

If you draft all good players you are in very good shape, even championship teams have a few iffy picks.

For example, I overlooked rip hamilton in a draft.

I actually think he is. I think ESPN has him ranked 150 right now, but he's still got lots of upside, even if he is 42.

I think much of who not to pick comes from your teams style/needs. That said, I stay away from guys with injury history and poor shooting. that makes BARON DAVIS the player I would never draft. others include:

Marcus Camby - truly made from glass and would never take him unless he fell way lower than value.
Stephen Jackson - the way I usually draft my teams, I can't handle his FG% or TO.
Last year, in one league, I missed out on all my C targets and had to pick the value guys based on who was left, I ended up with Zach Randolph, Al Harrington, and Greg Oden. I had huge points and rebounds advantage, but was last place in BLKS for the majority of the season.

Yea, I like to pick players who shoot a good fg percentage. Guys like Stephen Jackson or Brandon Jennings I avoid. The problem is, for some reason, my fts are a bit low. I guess picking a few good ft big men helps a lot. A guy like Gasol who would be a pf who shoots a high ft can help a lot.

My fg average is like 48.5 percent, the problem is sometimes you still lose even though on average you should shoot better.

I still believe that a hot player makes a big difference depending on where you get him. For example I got Evans in the last few rounds, which is a big boost to my fantasy.

Players you don't pick in fantasy are usually pretty personal, but there are some universal ones that are, like breakdown said, injury risks, turn the ball over a ton or shoot a poor %. Having said that I constructed an h2h team last year that was punting To's and FG%. That allowed me to draft all the players that I usually wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole. It looked a lot like my do not draft list:

Baron Davis
Ron Artest
Stephan Jackson
Zach Randolph
JR Smith
Jamal Crawford
Corey Maggette
Caron Butler
Marcus Camby
Boris Diaw
Lamar Odom
Micheal Beasley
Marvin Williams
AK47
Tayshaun Prince
T-mac
Kyle Korver

I generally don't draft these players because they have all screwed me

Do you guys believe that if someone were to play for 10 plus yrs of fantasy they would know pretty much all the tips in fantasy? Or is it too unpredictable and depends on the current yr? I thought I knew a lot after just one yr of playing it, but after the 2nd yr, I still learned quite a bit.

gilbert arenas. i will still draft him this year though.

Mario Chalmers... although maybe.. just maybe a pick up somewhere if bron/wade/bosh boost his stats

kingscourt wrote:Do you guys believe that if someone were to play for 10 plus yrs of fantasy they would know pretty much all the tips in fantasy? Or is it too unpredictable and depends on the current yr? I thought I knew a lot after just one yr of playing it, but after the 2nd yr, I still learned quite a bit.

It depends a lot on the year, I think. I mean strategies like punting may come a few years later, but it really comes down to being able to predict who will become much better or much worse in the upcoming season, and drafting accordingly.

kingscourt wrote:Do you guys believe that if someone were to play for 10 plus yrs of fantasy they would know pretty much all the tips in fantasy? Or is it too unpredictable and depends on the current yr? I thought I knew a lot after just one yr of playing it, but after the 2nd yr, I still learned quite a bit.

I've been playing 10 years, have won some, have lost some, and every year is different. That's the fun of it.

DNYLkiller wrote:Players you don't pick in fantasy are usually pretty personal, but there are some universal ones that are, like breakdown said, injury risks, turn the ball over a ton or shoot a poor %. Having said that I constructed an h2h team last year that was punting To's and FG%. That allowed me to draft all the players that I usually wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole. It looked a lot like my do not draft list:

Baron Davis
Ron Artest
Stephan Jackson
Zach Randolph
JR Smith
Jamal Crawford
Corey Maggette
Caron Butler
Marcus Camby
Boris Diaw
Lamar Odom
Micheal Beasley
Marvin Williams
AK47
Tayshaun Prince
T-mac
Kyle Korver

I generally don't draft these players because they have all screwed me

this is a good list, though I would say that guys like odom and Camby are big difference makers if they pan out. They nearly won me a league championship a few years. The others in this list are a little over-rated, and you can only count on them for a good game or 2 per week.

I will say that SJax is solid if you can handle his downsides. I would welcome him on any of my teams.

Is it true that one should not be checking stats during the draft? I mean one should have a good idea what players average and should know who is better from a small group of players to pick. I have my hot list of players, my list of players to avoid, my draft strategy based on position and best player available. I also have my tier system and a list for value picks.

kingscourt wrote:Is it true that one should not be checking stats during the draft? I mean one should have a good idea what players average and should know who is better from a small group of players to pick. I have my hot list of players, my list of players to avoid, my draft strategy based on position and best player available. I also have my tier system and a list for value picks.

No, you should be checking stats.

Along with M-Chalms I took Rashard Lewis relatively high and he was such a dud in terms of fantasy.. real up and down and this year thanks to VC he wasn't scoring as much.

Players not to pick in fantasy: whoever I pick in the first round. I had Gilbert the first year he went down. I had Chris Paul last season. In baseball this year I picked Tulowitzki in round one.