Pick by pick analysis...

[3Si]

These are some analysis I made for a league I'm currently in. (not FFL or FF Mock)

This is for a new Keeper League 12 teams H2H Yahoo standard cats:




- The top 3 is pretty standard, no comment.
- Wade, toughest pick in the draft by far, his numbers will drop for sure. But I think he should still be in top 10.
- Kobe at 5th is not a "bad" pick, but not the best either IMO, but Kobe is Kobe, he is a sure thing.
- Dirk at 6th is an awesome pick. He should have 2-3 more years left in him. Win now!
- Curry will surprise a lot of you. I wanted to trade down to get him.
- Dwight is an amazing fantasy player if you tank FT, but the thought of tanking FT every year made me...
- Granger at 9th, nice! Looks like you are meant to have him, again Jim.
- If I had known Deron was going to be there at 10th, I wouldn't have made that deal. (I made a trade from this spot to move up to get Wade)
- Roy has a sweet front court combo with Lee & Amare, Amare at this point is a steal.
- That Rondo pick totally screwed Ben over, good job John! (He picked Melo as well which was a safe pick IMO)

2nd.5 Round Analysis


- Lopez is a solid pick, he will only get better as a Keeper. Kinda made me regret making that trade.
- Boozer made me scratch my head and also made Ben jump for joy. I don't think his production will be any better in Chicago. He is more of a system guy and worked well under Sloan.
- He was worried that Josh would be gone, he is the next best thing for his FT tanking team since Rondo got stolen by John.
- Didn't expect Kelvin to reach for Bosh here, was hoping he would drop to me. I think Bosh will still be fine in Miami. He's not going to get 24 pts, but the rest of his stats should be there. PF/Cs are a hot commodity. He has all 8 cats covered with just 2 picks, gives him a lot of flexibility.
- Pau fell into Peter's lap. He owes me dinner as I made his pick for him. He's ONLY still 30! He will produce. I guess Peter is going for the win this year.
- Tyreke is a reach, but a good reach IMO. He has potential to be a top 20 player, and he's young in a team that will give him as many mins as he wants.
- I wanted a Center and a young one. Al Jefferson fits the bill. He's with Sloan, and he should be back on track with his system. I can see him getting back into top 10 2 years ago with Deron feeding him, Okur injured and Boozer gone. It was a bit of a reach, but looking at the draft right now, if you don't reach for a player, you will not get him.
- I considered GWall but his injury is a concern to me (not that Al's isn't) and his numbers will likely drop with mins. But it's a good pick with little risk at this point.
- With Iggy, it's hard to judge. He has a new coach and a new system. There are lots of uncertainty with in the team. With Evan coming in, his numbers might not be as consistent. I don't see him out playing his draft position.
- Was hoping Horford would drop to me. But seeing Clinton's effectuation with him in the past, I shouldn't have known he won't be there. He's young with a lot of upside. Another good reach for a young PF/C.
- Another reach for a young stud in Rose, but he solidifies Clinton's team with a young core for years to come. KD/Hort/Rose... wow
- Duncan... wow. This pick made me LOL because someone else (not hard to guess) wanted him really bad. Duncan is Duncan, he might not for many years, but his numbers should be around the same as last year. But I did not expect him to be drafted this early. Perhaps EC is going with a win now strategy as many top tier old guys are still around.

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3rd Round Analysis


- Nash will likely be Nash this year. But will he be Nash next. Regardless, at this point, for the win this year, that's a value pick to win.
- Roy is a boring pick. But boring is good.
- JJ is another safe pick. Peter is building team consistent here.
- Monta is a medium risk high reward player. If Nelson gives him PT, he should be top 10. If he gets injured...
- Noah is a bit of a surprise, but he matches up well with Bosh. Snatching up young PF/Cs.
- Gay will fit very well with his team. Ben's team pretty much has stls/blks locked up.
- Westbrook fits in OKC, so he will produce. Everyone is expecting him to perform, but if his numbers are the same as last year, is he worth a pick this high?
- I was going to trade up to grab Bargnani, luckily, he slipped to me. I don't usually like picking Toronto players, but I think he will have a good Fantasy season. Not to mention he's young and is also a PF/Cs who shoots 3s and will have a few blocks. He will be forced to take the scoring load, and his % isn't too bad for a jump shooting big guy.
- West fits his team well. 3 big guys with great % and no negative stats is hard to come by.
- Zach is a slight reach, but with a lot of Cs gone, he's a good consistent 20/10 C.
- I guess John is on board with grabbing all the PF/Cs he can find while they are still around. I have some doubts about Love because of his coach. But there's no way he doesn't start eventually with Jefferson gone.


4th Round analysis


- Collison is a "sexy" pick. He was the person everyone is looking to reach for. If he can produce anything remotely close to the CP-less period, he will be flirting with top 10.
- John Wall is a reach, but Ivan knew I was going to pick him if he was available. He will be fun to watch for the next few years. But this year, with all the happy shooters in Washington, I'm not quite so sure.
- Troy is a safe pick. NJ fits his style and he should get his numbers. But he has no upside with NJ going young.
- Bogut was a very risky pick. He fits his team, but does a team really need that much block after Dhow and Josh? He is questionable for the first quarter of the season, and ironically, it was Ben who suggested the two bench format. He will need to make some serious picks to make up for this.
- Jennings is another reach, but not too many promising young PGs left which is why I think Kelvin took him. But with Bucks added guns, he will not have the same production as his pre-rookie wall career.
- Gasol is a pretty good pick at this point and he should be just fine in Memphis.
- Can't believe Billups fell this far, but with his style, I think he has still got a couple years left in him. He might not be a keeper, but he will do well this year even without Melo. He fits in well with Peter's "Look who dropped to me" strategy.
- I had no choice. It really wasn't a pick I wanted to make, but more of a pick that if I don't make, one of the next few teams (not ECs) will grab him and win it all this year.
- Nene was a bit of a surprise after waiting for almost 12 hours. His injury history does concern me, but if he stays healthy, he'll be worth this pick. Too much uncertainty in Denver could quickly turn this into a bad pick.
- Blatche... Ummm, with Wall, Arenas, Josh Howard, Al Thornton, McGee... He will never reproduce what he did last year towards the end of the season. EC's team is looking like CP3's team, Hornets. He will be asked to get traded soon.
- PP and Arenas (I ranked both ahead of Kidd and was hoping one of Rishi and EC would grab them). "Ladies and gentlemen, it's over." If we start the season right now, Clinton's team will be the run away winner. Not only did Clinton won the lottery with the 1st over all pick, he was also blessed with having EC picking ahead of him from both sides. PP should have been long gone in the draft and Arenas will push this team over the top. To top it off, not only is this a solid team this year, this will be a solid team for a LONG time.
- Mo will produce and he will put up some decent numbers. Cleveland will need him to score if Jamison is going to be the 6th man.

[3Si]

5th Round

- Kevin Martin was the BPA. Highest reward player out of the rest by a fair margin. But he will also drag your FG% down even in full strength. It's hard to guess where that Houston team is going. Aaron was fine with Kevin, but "IF" Yao comes back, what happens? And with young Courtney Lee who seem to fit the defensive style more taking some time, who knows.
- Danilo... I expected a much better pick from Ivan in Manu. Danilo's future has a lot of uncertainty. With Randolph moving to SF, Danilo will share mins in the SG with Azubuike and Roger Mason. His production might drop from last year. But he's very young, so the future is bright. But it really depends how D'Antoni play them.
- Aldridge was a safe pick in team safe. His numbers might drop slightly "IF" Oden returns and with Camby sharing some mins. But he's still an offensive PF/C who will produce.
- Green has a lot of potential, but so does the rest of OKC. The question remains, on a stacked team, will his numbers improve.
- Mayo, pure offense who will cover certain cats quite well. With Memphis' situation stabilizing, he should have similar numbers.
- Bynum... Another big? Really? So you have FG, rebound, BLK locked up... then what? Bynum is young, but he's not someone I would reach that far for. He'd probably be still available next round. Maybe if Gasol was injured, then this would be a nice pick.
- Stephen Jackson is a good pick, BPA. FG% is tough to swallow, but can't ignore the rest of his contributions.
- Manu, yes he's old. But he fits my team perfectly. He covers so many cats that it's hard to pass up on. Health has always been an issue, but with Duncan almost retiring, he should pick up some load. Even if he doesn't get more minutes, he will still produce relatively similar numbers as he never needed starter minutes in his career.
- J Rich is another good pick. His numbers should raise with the departure of Amare. His % is decent for a guard and with Nash beside him, he will get a good fair share of open shots.
- Blake is a reach, yes another reach by one spot. John should have drafted Felton ahead of him. Seriously though, he's on everyone's list, it's only a matter of time before someone grabs him. He's your typical PF build and should give typical high FG% and REB. Will Baron share the rock with him? We will find out soon.
- Felton was another player who's on most people's list. As John said, Nash #2 with D'Antoni? He will be better, but I'm sure even John knows he won't be the next Nash. His % will never be at Nash's level and he will never be as consistent. But at this point, that's a good gamble at the PG position.
- Brooks, good offensive players, but like Kevin Martin, a lot of question marks in Houston. But Aaron should be the same regardless of Yao's health.
- Anthony Randolph, had a tough time deciding between a few players, but his age and D'Antoni's system made me pick him. If his numbers playing at 20ish minutes were decent, imagine what will happen if he plays 35+. D'A already said he will play him in 3 positions, so minutes will not be a concern... But injury is, hope his ankle will hold up.

[3Si]

If you are wondering, my team so far:

Wade
Al Jefferson
Bargnani
Kidd
Manu
A Randolph


My top ranked team in this league:

KD
Rose
Horford
PP
Arenas

[3Si]

To be continued...

[3Si]

Not going to bother with editing since not many people are reading this anyways... but FWIW, here goes...

[3Si]

6th and 7th round Analysis


Devin Harris is a medium risk medium to high reward pick. With Avery Johnson coaching NJ, maybe it'll help Devin to get back to his pre injury form. With not much option in NJ, he will be forced to produce. (Funny story, Ben wanted this pick. But due to John's email explaining why he chose Felton over Harris, Jim went with Harris. Thanks John for screwing up Ben's team again!)
Baron Davis is just as good if not better than Harris IMO. His FG% is just as bad but he will get some assists. He PTS output will not come close to Devin, but he will have less pressure to produce. This is the 3rd draft I have seen these two gone back to back.
Millsap, I was actually thinking of making this pick for him after he was skipped so many times. This pick makes his team more competitive in some stats. With Boozer gone, Millsap will step up. PT was what stopped him into becoming a top 30 player.
Kaman is a bit of a reach. If healthy he should be a solid center. With Camby gone, he will get a fair share of minutes, but how will he mix with Griffin?
Marcus is not a typical Peter pick. I was shocked. There are lots of high expectations for Thornton, and playing with CP doesn't hurt either. I'm not too sold on him just yet however. But with Peter's team, he can afford to gamble.
Frye, I was hoping he would drop to my next pick, but I didn't think he was going to get past Clinton anyways. New contract, bye bye Amare should equate to a break out season for him. PF/C + 3s + a block and a steal, he could be the next young Marion who is not so young.
Jamison is a solid pick at this point. He is suppose to be the 6th man. But I'm expecting 35+ mins for him, and he will still produce in those mins in an efficient manner.
Harrington... No surprise here, EC is picking. It's an UBER reach, BUT keep in mind that with KMart still injured and Melo leaving, he could be the only legit scorer left with Billups. So to avoid eating my own words, I'm not going to say this is a bad pick.
Dalembert is what I'd expect from Clinton. Low risk, medium reward. He will do just fine in Sac. He's the only legit center, and even if he gets 30 mins, he will still produce as he doesn't need starter mins to get his numbers.
Scola's value will highly depend on Yao. Yao is suppose to be healthy... again... He was a stud last year after AS break, with Yao playing limit mins he should be fine.
Butler was a pretty safe pick by EC. Didn't expect that one. He's looking to be more involved this year, and he should fit well with the Dallas system with Kidd dishing him the ball. He will never be that 20+/5/2 guy again but at this point, he's worthy of this pick.
Camby, no idea why Yahoo ranked him so high. If Oden is back, I expect his numbers to drop. And even without Oden, his numbers were not that great last year in Portland. He will still get you blocks and rebounds plus a steal here and there, but his injury past is always a concern.
Ariza is a pick I expected Ivan to make. Very well rounded player. His % does concern me but his other contributions are hard to ignore.
Salmons had a great year playing for Skiles, but with Maggette joining the team, Salmons minutes will drop. Looking at his Chicago and Sac days, he doesn't do well after a demotion.
KG is old, KG is done, but KG will still be KG... At this point, KG is well worth a year rental fee. His numbers should be around the same as last year.
Deng had quietly put together a solid fantasy season last year. But with Boozer joining the team and the maturation of Noah, that will probably not help Deng. If that rumored Melo to Chicago trade happens, then Deng's value will hit rock bottom until he's traded.
Holiday had a decent 2nd half. If he continues to grow, he will be a decent PG. Ben needed some guards to fill the spot, but he really doesn't compliment his team.
Hibbert, 10% body fat! He's going to be the only center in Indiana. He can only improve from last year, and he was already pretty good last year.
Yao, I actually wanted Turner here, but my gut feeling was Roy will pick Yao, so I took him instead. (Roy if you are reading this, I may be interested in Turner) "Yao cleared by doctors: Houston Rockets All-Star center Yao Ming is confident that he'll be ready for the start of the regular season after a team doctor said his surgically repaired foot has fully healed." I'm not expecting him to be an all star, but if he's healthy, he will give me some top 30 numbers. I picked him expecting the trade to be made, and I will desperately be needing some Cs. I will also need to gamble in order to make my team some what competitive this year, and at least have a chance to beat John. IF Yao is really 80%, then this would be the steal of the draft even if he retires next year. 20/10 with good % and 2 blocks will make me very happy. Realistically, even at 18/9/1, he's still a good pick.
Ray Ray, as safe as being gay... Ok, I couldn't think of anything better... I don't see his numbers declining if he stays healthy. He's not young, but neither are his teammates. He will still get his numbers and in an efficient way as well. He might be old, but he can still get it up.
Parker, as John said, contract year. But with Eva, who needs a contract. Parkers number will be up and down all year IMO. Overall, he will likely receive the same production as last year.
Landry is a good pick. He played well in Sac last year but what will happen with DeMarcus there? DeMarcus is very inconsistent, I expect Landry to get his minutes and produce while the youngster learn for the early part.
Turner, I wanted to gamble with him. Yes, we all know he had a bad Summer League, but with so much talent, he should be fine, but when will he start producing? That might be the question, his game is some what similar to Iggy and plays a similar position. Down the road, it's always nice to dream about drafting the next Iggy... so you can claim to be a better GM than Babcock.
Gordon has some upside. He's learning to play with Big Diddy and as Big Diddy gains more fat, Gordon may take more of the offensive load from the back court.

[3Si]

Dynasty League Draft - Round 8 Analysis...


Greg Oden, another high risk high reward pick for me. A young big man who has decent FT% and great FG% along with rebounds and blocks. If it wasn't for his injury, he could have been top 30 by now. Unlike Yao, there isn't really any update on his situation, it has been "training camp probable" for awhile...
Vince Carter... Ben keeps talking him up saying he will be this year's MIP. He can certainly keep dreaming, but it will not happen. His number shouldn't drop, but it's not going up much either. It's hard to justify picking VC at this stage with still plenty of other choices available.
AK, contract year. Should be starting and given decent minutes. Injury is always a concern, but I need to make risky picks to stay competitive. If he's healthy, just like Yao and Oden would easily be a top 30 player... actually, he can be a top 10 player if he's 100%.
KG, like I said before, yes, he's old, yes he will play limited minutes, but KG is still KG and he can be a great glue guy that will give you multiple cats.
Odom, surprise surprise? Another Lakers. Pretty good pick at this point, he's a pretty safe pick and goes well with his team.
Beasley is a good "backup plan". I think he will get plenty of opportunity to play in Minny, but they also have a few young studs that will demand some minutes. If he's determined again, he will have a good season.
DeMarcus was a surprise. I guess Kelvin wanted a rook in his team. He was inconsistent in the Summer League, and had attitude like Derrick Coleman. Talent is there, but will he produce? Perhaps he will be a project for Kelvin.
Brand is possibly the best pick EC has made so far. If the new coach really does give him the chance to perform like the old Brand, this can potentially be a super steal. Even if he doesn't, he's still going to give you last year's number which is not too bad. Worth a gamble at this point
Crawford has a lot of question marks with the trade request and his situation with Atlanta. If he stays, I think he will likely give you the same cats as he always have. At this stage in the draft, he is a solid pick.
Maggette is another solid pick. Even if he's backing up Salmon, he will still get his numbers IF Skiles lets him play. His defense has always been questionable, and Scott seem to be very comfortable with John last year.
Andre Miller is another good pick from EC, wow 2 in a row. He doesn't have a lot of potential, but his value is still there with Portland. Good FG% for a PG and decent assist for guards who are left over. His numbers might drop a little with Roy maturing, but if he's injured, Miller's role will sky rocket.
Hickson, I didn't expect him to go this early, but it's not a bad pick. He's got tons of potential, and showed us what he can do late last year. The question lies in his backup... Jamison might be old, but he can still score, and Cleveland doesn't have any scorers. Varejao will be spending most of his time in Center.
Hedo, I for one don't believe Hedo will be back to his Orlando form. If he was complaining about not getting the ball in TO, just wait till he's introduced to Nash offense. I don't like Hedo, never liked him, so I'm bias here.

[3Si]

Round 9 Analysis


Brendan Haywood, pretty big reach and not much upside. With Tyson Chandler there (at least when he's not injured), Haywood's playtime might suffer. And even when given close to 30 minutes, his numbers weren't that good in Dallas. There are a few better options IMO at this point. But Haywood might be the safest pick.
Terry, I couldn't believe JT fell to me. I was going to pick someone else that would fit my team better, but JT is hard to pass up. With the emergence of Beaubois, some worry about JT's minutes. I don't see how JT doesn't get 30+ mins backing up an old Kidd and a young Beaubois. And that's all the minutes he needs to get his typical effcient numbers.
Diaw, don't like this pick and don't understand Ben's logic either. He's drafting a small ball big man while his team is obviously playing big ball. Unless Diaw gets traded, I can see Brown giving more time to the younger/richer Tyrus than the over weight Diaw.
Chandler is another reach with not too much upside either. With Randolph, Gallinari, Azubuki, I just don't see how D'Antoni can give the same minutes to Chandler as last year.
Conley was the one I wanted to draft when Terry was available. He's young, entering his prime with a young offensive team in a contract year. If he can repeat the numbers he got after the AS break last year, then he's going to be a top tier PG.
Okafor is a pretty safe pick. He will get his usual 10/9/1 with not much upside. It's not the perfect system for his style, but then again, being the only legit center on that team doesn't hurt either.
Stuckey, I'm not too high on Stuckey due to his %, and he takes a fair share of shots. IF Ben Gordon and Hamilton is healthy, Stuckey's scoring will drop. If his scoring drops, he isn't really worth much more than a steal here and there, plus an under average assist for a PG. There's also the Tmac factor... And having Bynum as a backup might also eat into his production.

[3Si]

Round 10 Analysis



JaVale Mcgee was definitely on my list. He will be a good source for two cats even playing limited minutes. Blatche will be there in the middle most of the time, but McGee is a much better defender. He has buffed up and even grew an inch to a legit 7 footer.
Terrence Williams is a big reach at this point. Don't really like this pick as NJ is so uncertain right now. With Morrow and Outlaw there, his numbers will take a dip.
Biedrins was my pick right behind McGee. I also had Tyrus Thomas there, which is why I tried to trade up for TT. There's no reason to believe why Biedrins couldn't repeat his numbers a year ago. He's the only legit center in GS, I expect him to play side by side with Lee. He's still only 24, he should get my team some solid blocks and rebounds. The only thing that could stop him... Don Nelson...
Robin Lopez is a bit of a surprise, but Jim was looking to add some rebound and a 4th C to his mixed team. I guess one could hope he turns out to be half as good as his brother.
Morrow should be fine in NJ. He will be battling mins with TWill and Outlaw, but primarily should start at the SG position. He could very well turn out to be NJ's second option.
Okur is still injured, and there are lots of questions marks surrounding him. There's zero report on his health, and last was said to have limited motion in his arm. Even if he's healthy, he has to battle Jefferson, AK and Millsap for minutes. He will never be that smooth shooting C again.
Ben Gordon could have a good season IF Hamilton is gone. That's a big if. When Hamilton was injured, Gordon was dropping some serious numbers. But with Hamilton back, you'd have to think he's still the number one option. And with TMac in the mix, it's hard to say this is a good pick this early in the draft.
Young will have similar numbers as his average from last year. But there's no upside with him as Turner will be taking some of his shots. And with promise to make Brand more involved, one would have to think Young's numbers might even dip a little.
Kleiza could possibly be the biggest reach so far. I guess the World Tournament really impressed Kelvin. He will get his minutes in Toronto and he should produce. But I believe he could have been had in later rounds. Having said all that, I can't say this is that bad of a pick.
Tyrus should have been picked, but I was lucky that he dropped this far. Larry Brown likes this kid, Diaw is out of shape and could very well be traded. If TT gets PT, he could be a very good 5 cat stud. Then again, every year people have been saying the same thing about him.
Yes Beno is starting, and he will probably get his minutes. But don't expect the same numbers as he got towards the end of last year. Tyreke will be playing a lot of point and he's the future for the Kings. I have to agree with John, George Hill would have been better.
Jarret Jack, didn't expect Clinton to take Jack this early. If Jose is traded, this could turn out to be a decent pick. But Jack's number even with Jose out last year wasn't that good either. So it's hard to justify picking him here, but there aren't too many reliable PGs left and Clinton's team lack assists.

[3Si]

Round 11 Analysis



DJ Augustine "should" be the starting PG, but Larry Brown seem to favor Shaun as he prefers big PGs ala Eric Snow. I like this pick based on DJ's potential, but if Shaun is health, he can really cut into DJ's playing time. If you look at Livingston's last 8 games, he's playing like his pre injured days.
Batum is a great glue guy. Solid numbers across the board, and he could very well start in Portland. With the departure of Outlaw and Webster, it looks like the young Batum might have a break out season. Even if he doesn't break out, his numbers from last year doesn't hurt any team.
I'm not sold on Barbosa. I think DD/Sonny will be playing most of the minutes at that SG spot. And Barb will back up both guard spots. It's hard to predict how Triano will play him. Barb does fit into BC's vision, but so was Hedo.
Ibaka is another one of those young big guys that could blow up into a great 2 cat guy. Playing in a stacked team will ensure he doesn't get too many shots, but rebounding and blocks should come easy for him.
Gooden is a pretty safe pick again by Peter. He will play some C when Bogut is out, he can also slide over to PF and start ahead of Moute. He should get his typical 10/8/close to 1 blk and half a steal line.
Mike Miller should have a decent season in Miami. The big 3 can't do all the scoring, and Miller should get loads of open opportunity to do his thing. Not a bad pick at this point, but he doesn't have too much upside.
George Hill should continue to improve and steal minutes from Parker and Manu. He could very well be the Spurs only future. Manu will likely get injured one point or another, so his value could rise.
Shawn Marion, I wanted to give the same comment I gave to KG with Marion. Yes he's old, but 12/6/1/1 is still very respectable. Backup Dirk and Caron should ensure he gets around 30 mpg.
Jose Calderon, yes I wanted to pick him because he will get me assist and 3s with good %. But with injuries and trade concern, it's hard to guess what will happen. Jim can hope he gets traded to an offensive minded team. Under the right system, he can still produce and give out efficient solid numbers. Even if he stays, when healthy, he will still give you 10/6/1 with great %
Wesley Johnson, he is my favorite rookie this year. Even when he was in Syracuse, he was fun to watch. He has Marion written all over him. He could turn out to be the best fantasy player out of all the rookies this year. He's size, freakish wing span and a decent shot. If Minny is smart, they would start him over Webster or Brewer. That's the main problem, Minny is stacked with young forwards.
DeRozan, I'd like to see him do well. If his summer camp performance was any indication of what he will do this year, he could be a decent player. But his fantasy value still lies on limited cats.
Casspi should get his minutes playing for a young team. Tyreke is still the man there but Casspi should produce and improve on his rookie numbers. But with the addition of Landry and Cousins, that improvement might not be a lot. Worth a pick at this point as he has some potential.

[3Si]

FWIW, here's my current team as I traded for Lebron...

Wade
Lebron
A.Randolph
Evan Turner
Greg Oden
AK
Jason Terry
Mike Conley
Biedrins
Tyrus Thomas
Wesley Johnson
Anderson Varejao

[3Si]

If you have enjoyed reading this, please help me out by rating or commenting my team. Keep in mind that this is a 12 team Keeper league. Cheers!

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