Keeper Help - Iggy, LMA, Brook, Big Al?

[hkphooey]

12-team 9-Cat H2H and we get to keep 2 non All-Stars from last season. Have to decided between Andre Iguodala, LaMarcus Aldridge, Brook Lopez and Al Jefferson. My brain tells me to lock up the big man stats with Brook and Big Al, but my heart tells me go for the steady diet of loveliness from Iggy. I'm also a Blazers fan and so it kills me not go the homer route, especially since LMA isn't going to make the All-Star team anytime soon and Big Al likely does this year so LMA sets me up again for next season as well... Appreciate any and all insights.

[rocketsballin]

i wouldnt pick lma. 18/8 w some blks/stls and decent %'s aren't that hard to get anymore. i'd go for lopez and jefferson. lopez will always be above average w/ blocks and rebounds w/ good %'s, bigs like that are rare. w/ the nets' loaded frontcourt his pts will go down but still be good for about 15ppg.

jefferson is almost the same but w/ more pts and less blocks. borderline decent ft%. and this season okur is out till mid season, so he could be a 25/13 guy till january. injuries make him risky but its worth it.

i would pick iggy over jefferson last season, but turner might bring iggy's stats down. and if iggy gets traded, i'd expect it to be a team where his usage isnt as high it is in philly. he'd wanna go to a good playoff team at least, and notta lottery team. of corse i could be wrong, maybe the other sg/sf stats go down, and iggy's stats barely go down. and he could get traded to a team fighting for a playoff spot, he'd have to be 20/5/5.

u should defintely keep lopez, but the other guy is up to you.

[hkphooey]

i wouldnt pick lma. 18/8 w some blks/stls and decent %'s aren't that hard to get anymore. i'd go for lopez and jefferson. lopez will always be above average w/ blocks and rebounds w/ good %'s, bigs like that are rare. w/ the nets' loaded frontcourt his pts will go down but still be good for about 15ppg.

jefferson is almost the same but w/ more pts and less blocks. borderline decent ft%. and this season okur is out till mid season, so he could be a 25/13 guy till january. injuries make him risky but its worth it.

i would pick iggy over jefferson last season, but turner might bring iggy's stats down. and if iggy gets traded, i'd expect it to be a team where his usage isnt as high it is in philly. he'd wanna go to a good playoff team at least, and notta lottery team. of corse i could be wrong, maybe the other sg/sf stats go down, and iggy's stats barely go down. and he could get traded to a team fighting for a playoff spot, he'd have to be 20/5/5.

u should defintely keep lopez, but the other guy is up to you.

Good stuff and thanks for taking the time. Your make great points. The other remaining issue though on LMA is that he was very average at the beginning of last season when he was getting used to playing with Oden. I know that Portland will bring Oden along as slow as they need to and Camby will start at the beginning of the season so LMA should start OK this year, just a matter of when Oden gets the nod over Camby however as Camby could be more useful as the first big off the bench at either PF or C.

Lopez and Big Al just got locked. Thanks again.

[FantasyMVP]

I would taken Lopez and Iguodala, but you already made the picks. Lopez has more potential than either of Aldridge or Al Jefferson. Besides the fact that he's already putting up better numbers regardless so that's a no brainer.

Iguodala is a multi-cat stud and I peg him to actually improve this season. Mainly because he won't be pressured to be the "scorer" and "distributer" with Evan Turner in the mix. Turnovers should go down since he won't be handling the ball as much, Efficiency in should go up, now that he can get setup by two young studs like Jrue Holliday or Turner.

Jefferson is still a solid choice and it will give you some serious bigmen to build your team around. I'm just thrown off by his injury history and poor D while having to play under Sloan. I could be wrong and he might blow up, playing with an all star point guard.

[hkphooey]

I would taken Lopez and Iguodala, but you already made the picks. Lopez has more potential than either of Aldridge or Al Jefferson. Besides the fact that he's already putting up better numbers regardless so that's a no brainer.

Iguodala is a multi-cat stud and I peg him to actually improve this season. Mainly because he won't be pressured to be the "scorer" and "distributer" with Evan Turner in the mix. Turnovers should go down since he won't be handling the ball as much, Efficiency in should go up, now that he can get setup by two young studs like Jrue Holliday or Turner.

Jefferson is still a solid choice and it will give you some serious bigmen to build your team around. I'm just thrown off by his injury history and poor D while having to play under Sloan. I could be wrong and he might blow up, playing with an all star point guard.

Yeah Iggy has been my keeper for the last 2 seasons so I have deep appreciation for him. And the fact that he stepped up and became a great American this summer is gravy (unlike LMA). In my league, with the way the scoring actually works - orebs are worth more than drebs, 3 pts made worth more than an and-1 etc. this is how these 4 guys break down over the last 2 seasons:

Al Jefferson
2009: 20.63 FPTS/G
2010: 16.19 FPTS/G

Brook Lopez
2009: 13.59 FPTS/G
2010: 17.67 FPTS/G

LaMarcus Aldridge
2009: 16.25 FTPS/G
2010: 16.22 FPTS/G

Andre Igoudala
2009: 17.98 FTPS/G
2010: 17.91 FTPS/G

Al Jeff only played 50 games in 08-09 but at 20.63 FPTS/game, he was the 8th best player in this league (as a comparison, this was better than Pau, Dirk and Dwight this season). Last year though, was his worst year of production since becoming a regular starter, but I expect his production to pick back up and we could use 09-10s - 16.19 as a base line and rather conservatively take the middle point between the two years and project him at 18.41.

I expect to Brook Lopez to continue to improve, though probably by not as big a margin (+4 FPTS/G) as the last years improvement but half as good could be expected: so an increase of 2 more FTPS/G would give him 19.67. And, and this is a big AND, he's played all 82 in each of the first 2 seasons.

The interesting thing about Andre Igoudala and LaMarcus Aldridge is that their last 2 seasons are exactly the same so you know exactly what you are getting with both of them, in addition to 80+ games guaranteed as well. No downside, but no upside. But, you sprinkle in the fact that both guys are likely to not going to make the All-Star team again this season means I can look to have them as keeper options for next season as well. (Though not sure looking into next season is the best reason to keep a keeper).

I guess I answered my own question because you have to go with the upside to win in head-to-head and Brook and Al Jeff, quite clearly, have the most upside.

[FantasyMVP]

I would taken Lopez and Iguodala, but you already made the picks. Lopez has more potential than either of Aldridge or Al Jefferson. Besides the fact that he's already putting up better numbers regardless so that's a no brainer.

Iguodala is a multi-cat stud and I peg him to actually improve this season. Mainly because he won't be pressured to be the "scorer" and "distributer" with Evan Turner in the mix. Turnovers should go down since he won't be handling the ball as much, Efficiency in should go up, now that he can get setup by two young studs like Jrue Holliday or Turner.

Jefferson is still a solid choice and it will give you some serious bigmen to build your team around. I'm just thrown off by his injury history and poor D while having to play under Sloan. I could be wrong and he might blow up, playing with an all star point guard.

Yeah Iggy has been my keeper for the last 2 seasons so I have deep appreciation for him. And the fact that he stepped up and became a great American this summer is gravy (unlike LMA). In my league, with the way the scoring actually works - orebs are worth more than drebs, 3 pts made worth more than an and-1 etc. this is how these 4 guys break down over the last 2 seasons:

Al Jefferson
2009: 20.63 FPTS/G
2010: 16.19 FPTS/G

Brook Lopez
2009: 13.59 FPTS/G
2010: 17.67 FPTS/G

LaMarcus Aldridge
2009: 16.25 FTPS/G
2010: 16.22 FPTS/G

Andre Igoudala
2009: 17.98 FTPS/G
2010: 17.91 FTPS/G

Al Jeff only played 50 games in 08-09 but at 20.63 FPTS/game, he was the 8th best player in this league (as a comparison, this was better than Pau, Dirk and Dwight this season). Last year though, was his worst year of production since becoming a regular starter, but I expect his production to pick back up and we could use 09-10s - 16.19 as a base line and rather conservatively take the middle point between the two years and project him at 18.41.

I expect to Brook Lopez to continue to improve, though probably by not as big a margin (+4 FPTS/G) as the last years improvement but half as good could be expected: so an increase of 2 more FTPS/G would give him 19.67. And, and this is a big AND, he's played all 82 in each of the first 2 seasons.

The interesting thing about Andre Igoudala and LaMarcus Aldridge is that their last 2 seasons are exactly the same so you know exactly what you are getting with both of them, in addition to 80+ games guaranteed as well. No downside, but no upside. But, you sprinkle in the fact that both guys are likely to not going to make the All-Star team again this season means I can look to have them as keeper options for next season as well. (Though not sure looking into next season is the best reason to keep a keeper).

I guess I answered my own question because you have to go with the upside to win in head-to-head and Brook and Al Jeff, quite clearly, have the most upside.

HAHA! You did a pretty good job answering your own question. Well Done!

Sometimes in fantasy you just have to swing for the homerun and take the higher risk/higher reward type route. Those are the types of decisions that can make you a dynasty in a keeper league. Either way, all of them are solid fantasy performers. You can't go wrong on having any of them on your roster.

There are so many variables that can change how many fantasy points they obtain. Jefferson could be become an All Star playing next to Deron. Or he could get hurt again and become a shell of what he used to be. Iguodala could give you the same production that he gave you the past two years. He also could improve with less turovers and higher efficiency since he has other ballhandlers now with Turner and Holliday. Lopez could explode into an elite center and improve even more. Maybe he'll flatline and really show that this is already his ceiling. Anything can happen I guess...

Like I said I would go with Iggy and Lopez, but bigmen always come at a premium and you can't argue keeping both Lopez and Al jeff instead. On the fun side, compare Lopez and Yao's numbers their first two seasons. The numbers are so similar, and Yao used to be a late first rounder every year. Lopez might end up being the same.

[floppymoose]

Iggy and Brook FTW.

edit: oh, I didn't realize you didn't really mean 9cat hth when you said 9cat hth. Without fully describing your scoring system this is an impossible question to answer.