Dampier in Hou/Mia

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PerkinsFor3
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Dampier in Hou/Mia 

Post#1 » by PerkinsFor3 » Tue Sep 21, 2010 7:11 am

One of the last 'intriguing' free agents left, Dampier is about to sign this week. Since I just pulled a very minor trade for him (Whiteside/2nd rounder) in a pretty deep league, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at his value.

First 9 games Dampier averaged 27 minutes a game, in which he put up7.6 pts against a 65% shooting clip. Dampier also grabbed 9.7 rebounds per game and swatted 2.2 blocks over this span. After these 9 games Dallas scratched Dampier from the line up after 'falling ill'. This stretch of games ranked him just above Okur (95) and just below Kaman (90) in a 9 cat setting, according to Basketball Monster.

He then returned 9 games later and put up averages of 7 pts (64% fg), 8 rebounds and 1.3 blocks over a stretch of 30 games (excluding a missed game here and there) in a time share with Drew Gooden, resulting in a minutes/game of little over 25. He then dislocated his finger and wouldn't return for 12 games.

During his last stretch of the season, Dampier averaged just 14 minutes/game due to Haywood getting traded to the Mavs. He put up 3 pts (53%fg), 4 rebounds and just over a block per game.


Keep in mind: the Mavericks agreed to a seventh year for Dampier with certain playing time requirements: he had to log at least 2,100 minutes, or an average of 30 minutes over 70 games in 2009-10, to make the $13 million due in the final season guaranteed. Obviously, Dampier failed to do so.

Also, Dampier has been a notoriously good 'contract year player'. In the final season of his contract with the Warriors, Dampier went from 24 minutes to 32 minutes a game and put up 12 rebounds, 1.9 blocks and 12.3 pts, eclipsing the 6.6 rebounds and 8.2 points he averaged a year prior to that.

Now if we move on to this season, where Dampier has narrowed down his options to Miami and Houston, he would once again land in a situation where he has to share center minutes with other players. In Miami there's Big Z, Magloire, Anthony and sneaky, but steady Haslem, who could move to C to play next to Bosh. In Houston there's Ming, who will be held to a maximum of 24 minutes a night, and Brad Miller (Rick Adelman favorite) and Chuck Hayes (very good, albeit undersized defender).

In Miami, I wouldn't be surprised to see Dampier move into the starting position. Playing Haslem extended minutes at C would leave Juwon Howard and Shavlik Randolph as the lone backups for Bosh. Big Z probably won't play more than 15 minutes a night, Joel Anthony even less, as he couldn't get more than 16 in a depleted Miami center rotation last year. Magloire could be waived if/when Dampier gets signed by the Heat.

Realistically I don't see Dampier playing more than 24 minutes a game in either city. So if we consider 20 minutes a game to be realistic, and also take into consideration the set up of each team, Dampier would be playing decent minutes as a defensive anchor, mainly being a big body in the middle, grabbing rebounds and blocking shots. Of course. BUT the players he'd be playing next to are very different in Miami from the players in Houston. In Miami the situation would be very much comparable to Dallas: He'd have to protect Bosh (Dirk)'s back and play good help defense. In Houston he'd man up the middle with a very steady and strong inside player in Scola.

For Fantasy purposes, the best situation for Dampier would be signing in Miami. There, he has the biggest chance of maintaining value as a second option at C. My predictions:

Miami: 22 minutes a game. 5 points a game, little over 6 rebounds a game and my over/under would be 1.2 blocks a game.
Houston: 18 minutes a game. Same, with a little less rebounds: 5 rebounds a game, and over/under for blocks would be 1 block.

In the end, I'd say Dampier won't give you much value UNLESS you're desperate for blocks and rebounds in a 17+ team league. In most other leagues you're better off taking a chance on players like Turiaf, Ben Wallace, Tyson Chandler etc.

Agree?


Update: I'll up hi Houston numbers a bit and consider his value in Mia and Hous to be even after reading this:

Rockets' plan to limit Yao Ming to 24 minutes per game this season and hold him out of the second game of back-to-backs.
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Breakdown777
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Re: Dampier in Hou/Mia 

Post#2 » by Breakdown777 » Tue Sep 21, 2010 8:54 am

I'd say his value is about even for both teams, as he'd fit into roughly the same minutes with slightly different roles:

Houston Big Depth Chart:
1. Yao - 24 minutes
2. Scola - 30 plus minutes
3. depends on matchups: Dampier for D / Miller for O - 20-24 minutes
4. switch above - less desireable player probably getting 10-15 minutes.
5. Chuck Hayes - 10 or fewer minutes
6. Jordan Hill - DNPs

Miami Big Depth Chart:
1. Bosh - 30 plus minutes
2. Dampier - 24 minutes
3. Haslem - 20-24 minutes
4. Big Z - 15-20 minutes
5. Joel Anthony - 15 minutes
6. Howard/Magloire/Pittman/whoever else - DNP

In the end Miami gets the edge in minutes, while I think he'd do more in Houston on a per minute basis.
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Re: Dampier in Hou/Mia 

Post#3 » by RapsGirl » Tue Sep 21, 2010 5:23 pm

Shavlik Randolph will not make the Miami team. And if Damp makes the Miami team, I wouldn't be surprised to see Haslem play most of the backup PF minutes.
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Re: Dampier in Hou/Mia 

Post#4 » by FantasyMVP » Tue Sep 21, 2010 5:25 pm

Agree,
On both teams he would be stuck in a significant timeshare but will still produce enough to be rostered in deep leagues. The numbers you mentioned seems like a reasonable prediction, either way I doubt he matches what he did in Dallas at certain points last season. Unless Yao goes down in Houston, then he might have more of an oppurtunity.
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