2011-12 First Round

Bank Shot · Post #1 » by **Bank Shot** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 8:17 pm

Assuming there's some baskeball played this year, how would your first round go?
Here's mine (for 9 cat H2H):

1) LeBron - Not much to be said here. I'd take him over Durant due to the assists.
2) Durant - Number 1 guy overall last year. He'll go number 1 in a lot of drafts.
3) CP3 - He'll finish in the top 3 if he stays healthy.
4) Wade - Both his and Bron's numbers went up later in the season. It seems like they've figured out how to play together. Injuries are somewhat of a concern but he played in 76 games last year.
5) Curry - Some may think that this is too high but he was "disappointing" last year and was still 9th overall. Mark Jackson loves him, and you should see a jump in minutes (he only played 33 a game last year). That minute increase alone should give him a ranking boosts. Add in a likely improvement in his game and you're looking at a huge steal if you can get this guy late in the first. I'm targeting him in all of my leagues.
6) Dirk - 6th overall last year. I don't see him declining at all. A very safe pick.
7) Love - Can he repeat last year with D-Will coming to town is the big question. I say he'll have a slight numbers regression but he'll still be worth a first round pick.
8) Pau - Number 5 guy overall last year. Not a sexy pick but he'll give you top 10 production. It will be interesting to see whether or not Brown focuses the offense more on the big men with Kobe declining.
9) Rose - 17th overall last year but I think its plausible that you'll see a small jump in his FG% which could get him in this range. I worry about his FT% dropping a little since he took a big step forward in that department last year. I don't think Rose has top 5 potential this year as some major rankings have him but I could see top 10.
10) Melo - He was a fantasy beast in NY and was around the top 5 after the trade. I see no reason for his numbers to change this year.
11) Deron - Almost always gets drafted in the first and then puts up second round value. A safe pick and its always nice to have one of the elite PGs on your team.
12) LMA - Top 4 guy in the last 3 months of the season. His value would take a hit if Oden can somehow stay healthy but its a good bet he won't.

Other options:
- Howard -> He can go pretty much anywhere in the first. I grabbed him 8th last year and punted FT%. He's easily the number 1 guy if you take out FT%.
- Big Al -> Beast in the second half of the season. Kanter and Favors could take away some touches.
- Amar'e -> Went from first round value to end of the 3rd/early 4th after Melo came to town. Some of it was likely due to him just wearing down. Has some nice upside, but I'd like a safer pick in the 1st.
- Horford -> Steady as hell but probably the least sexiest 1st or 2nd round pick. Solid production across the board and his numbers could go up if the Hawks decide to get rid of Smith
- Gay -> First round production last year before the injury. He's never produced that way besides the start of last year so I'd stay away in the first. A very nice late 2nd round pick if he falls that far though.
- Monta -> If he gets moved you'd likely see a pretty large value drop but as long as he's in GS he'll have up boarderline 1st round value.

Guys I'm not touching in the first:
- Kobe -> There's almost always a Kobe homer in every draft. 3rd round value last year and he isn't getting any younger.
- Westbrook -> 3rd round value last year and 4th round value in the last 3 months in 9 cat (he's a legit 1st rounder in 8 cat). This guy's going to have to make a jump to be worth considering in the 1st. He's ranked really high by some of the big sites which will drive up some pre-draft hype but I'll let someone else gamble on his potential.

Apathy · Post #2 » by **Apathy** » Sat Oct 8, 2011 9:55 pm

Not touching Melo, Rose, Aldridge. Most leagues are 8-cat (which I hate; it's terrible not to include TOs) so Westbrook is a clear 1-rounder. If it's 9-cat I like Horford in the late 1st. It's hard to win drafts in the 1st but it's easy to lose 'em. Horford stays healthy.

I'd love to pick 12th/13th and nab D-Ho/Rondo.

I go about my fantasy a little differently than most. I have my guys and the guys I hate. I'm never taking the guys I hate. The only 12 I'd consider grabbing in the 1st in a 9-cat league:

1. Durant
2. Paul
3. LBJ
4. Love
5. Pau
6. Curry
7. Dirk
8. Wade
9. Horford
10. Rondo
11. Granger
12. D-Will

Fortunately guys like Amare/Melo/Kobe/Rose are locks to go in the top 14 picks so I'll always get a guy I love. To me getting a guy who stays healthy, doesn't kill me anywhere and contributes in rare categories is what's most important.

CableKC · Post #3 » by **CableKC** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 3:24 am

Apathy wrote:Not touching Melo, Rose, Aldridge. Most leagues are 8-cat (which I hate; it's terrible not to include TOs) so Westbrook is a clear 1-rounder. If it's 9-cat I like Horford in the late 1st. It's hard to win drafts in the 1st but it's easy to lose 'em. Horford stays healthy.

I'd love to pick 12th/13th and nab D-Ho/Rondo.

I go about my fantasy a little differently than most. I have my guys and the guys I hate. I'm never taking the guys I hate. The only 12 I'd consider grabbing in the 1st in a 9-cat league:

1. Durant
2. Paul
3. LBJ
4. Love
5. Pau
6. Curry
7. Dirk
8. Wade
9. Horford
10. Rondo
11. Granger
12. D-Will

Fortunately guys like Amare/Melo/Kobe/Rose are locks to go in the top 14 picks so I'll always get a guy I love. To me getting a guy who stays healthy, doesn't kill me anywhere and contributes in rare categories is what's most important.

I don't think that Granger is a 1st round pick. I'd easily take other stat stuffers like Melo or even Aware over Granger.

Apathy · Post #4 » by **Apathy** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 6:20 am

3s are too valuable. Granger > Melo. Amare's debatable. I just don't like him this year. Gut feeling. I'm probably wrong.

And I'd never have to take Granger in the 1st.

Bank Shot · Post #5 » by **Bank Shot** » Fri Oct 14, 2011 5:09 pm

I think Amare's more debatable than Melo. Amar'e's (that ' in his name is (Please Use More Appropriate Word)) a guy I'm not 100% comfotable with either. I still think those knees are going to blow up at some point. Melo was a top 5ish guy in NY while Granger was a 3rd round pick this year. Are you expecting his FG to jump back up?

Fenris-77 · Post #6 » by **Fenris-77** » Fri Nov 4, 2011 12:41 am

Melo might have been top 5 in NY, but the production that got him there simply isn't sustainable. There's no way he shoots .424 from 3 all year, and if his 3pt% drops to a more normal (for him) .360 his value takes a big hit. That drops his overall FG% significantly and his 3's made (obviously), and at the very least that drops his value into the second round. His FT% in NY is also a career outlier by about 40 points, so that is likely to regress to the mean as well. It's a big reach to pay a first round price for him.