RealGM

let's make the premise of this thread keeper leagues...so let's hear your opinion of who will be the best long-term players. Here is my board:

Point Guards:

Damien Lillard - I am legitimately considering taking him with my 2nd rounder. He's got the keys to the Blazers franchise and he has impressed me plenty.

Wings:

1. Michael-Kidd-Gilchrist - He probably won't give you many 3's...but the rebounding, steals, blocks should be off the charts. When I saw him play in Summer league, i thought DAMN this guy plays REALLY HARD.

2. Bradley Beal - Straight stud.

3. Jeremy Lamb - could be a legit 20 ppg scorer and will get touches in Houston.

4. Terrence Ross - my hometown favorite, and he could definitely give you nice points and 3's down the road hopefully at a good %.

Bigs:

1. Anthony Davis (duh)

2. Jonas --> not an option in my league though as he is kept. Very high upside.

3. Meyers Leonard - Should get plenty of minutes in Portland

4 - John Henson - Big fan of his game. Milwaukee didn't think he would be available at 12 and he was magically available for them at 14.

I have three high picks right now, and since it is a keeper league (12 teams 6 keepers each) the 72 best players in the NBA are basically taken. So my plan is to draft rookies who have the best shots to be superstars. What do you think? Here is my board for my three high picks.

First round - Anthony Davis

Second round - Damien Lillard

4th round - MKG or Bradley Beal

So let's hear it...I also want to know. Do you like MKG or Beal more?

I can't say I disagree with any of your rankings but your board is wishful thinking. All 4 guys you are targeting will probably be gone within the first 2 rounds. Rookie hype + keeper league makes it tough to get more than Davis (I saw in the other thread you traded up to make sure you got him...great trade, he's a first rounder within 3 years, his game is tailored made for fantasy).

Lillard will likely be gone by the time your second pick comes around. Assuming its snake, Lillard will go higher then mid-90s in keeper leagues. He's a no brainer if he's still there, like you said he's been given the keys.

No way does MKG or Beal last into the 110s.

In terms of MKG vs. Beal, I like MKG, especially next year. Jordan Crawford is going to steal time from Beal and MKG is pretty much guaranteed to have nice rebs/steals numbers due to the minutes played.

Bank Shot wrote:I can't say I disagree with any of your rankings but your board is wishful thinking. All 4 guys you are targeting will probably be gone within the first 2 rounds. Rookie hype + keeper league makes it tough to get more than Davis (I saw in the other thread you traded up to make sure you got him...great trade, he's a first rounder within 3 years, his game is tailored made for fantasy).

Lillard will likely be gone by the time your second pick comes around. Assuming its snake, Lillard will go higher then mid-90s in keeper leagues. He's a no brainer if he's still there, like you said he's been given the keys.

No way does MKG or Beal last into the 110s.

In terms of MKG vs. Beal, I like MKG, especially next year. Jordan Crawford is going to steal time from Beal and MKG is pretty much guaranteed to have nice rebs/steals numbers due to the minutes played.

Haha I totally wasn't clear about my keeper league.

This is how it works: Last year was our first draft. I drafted Ty Lawson in the 5th round, so I don't get a 5th round pick. Whoever someone drafted in the first round, if they are keeping them, they don't get a first round pick. So i have the first overall pick, my 2nd rounder will be the third or fourth pick, and my 4th rounder should be the 7th-9th pick. In other words, I have 3 top 10 picks including the 1st overall.

Oh gotcha. Ya I don't mind the rookie strategy, depending of course on who is there. 3 rookies might be pushing it though. Would you keep all these guys? Davis is a no doubter stud and obviously a keeper going forward but the other guys might take a bit longer to develop and might be hard to keep depending on your current keepers.

The other three rookies aren't likely to be top tier fantasy guys this year so unless you're sure about keeping them, maybe going for a more veteran approach to your later picks would be better since you'd still have nice keepers and it would probably help you more this year.

I'm going through a similar dilemma in my Dynasty Rookie Draft. I have the 1st overall pick--and this may sound crazy--but I am considering drafting Lillard over Davis. I just love his skill set and ability to provide Points, Assists, and 3-pointers. I understand Davis will be a block machine, but I am just not sold on his toothpick frame.

So, somebody talk some sense into me before I shake my fantasy league up :-p

Don't do it man.

Look at Ibaka this year. In 9 cat he was ranked 11th overall. These were his averages:

9 PPG 7.5 RPG .4 APG .5 SPG 3.7 BPG 53.5 FG 66 FT% 1.2 TPG

Prime Davis is going to put up better numbers than that (much better basically across the board) except in blocks and turnovers and he'll still have elite blocks. I could see:

18-20 PPG 11 RPG 2.5 APG 1.2 SPG 2.5 BPG 55 FG% 75% FT 2.5 TPG in his prime.

I don't really see his frame being a problem. He's a kid still, has wide shoulders, and even if he ended up having a body like Bosh, I still think those numbers are achievable. He was way better than Bosh as a freshman and Bosh has put up 10.8 RPG before. Davis's fantasy potential is just crazy. His game is extremely fantasy friendly.

I do like Lillard a lot too but he's not on the same level. Don't get over excited about summer league. The last Portland PG who beasted there was Bayless and he hasn't turned into anything special. Also, Lillard will likely never be an elite distributer. 4 APG as a junior isn't good. I know he's a scoring PG but that's a low number. His FG% scares me a bit too. I could see Brandon Jennings numbers (Jennings numbers this year) in Lillard's prime which was good for 19th overall this year. Low FG%, great 3s, meh assists, great steals.

Davis's upside is just much higher and he's safer as well. There's basically no chance that Davis doesn't become an elite blocker, great rebounder, and high efficiency guy. 62 FG% and 71 FT% as a freshman big? That's awesome. I personally see him with a lot of offensive upside as well. Plus, if you take Davis, you're taking the guy who has the most trade value. Don't get cute. If you want to gamble do it with your second pick.

Taking AD first should be a lock, you can't pass on a franchise big man that could dominate the blocks category on his own. You can't look into his weight too much, Dwight was skinny, and people passed on Kenneth Faried because they thought he was undersized. He will get the necessary training to get where he needs to go, and I feel like New Orleans is a solid organization with a very good coach.

Lillard is such a question mark. I just haven't watched enough tape and I just don't know what to think. Is he worth taking over say MKG, who I think could be a 14,6,3,1.5,1 off the bat and only get better. And does Beal enter that mix? Decisions, decisions...

Bank Shot wrote:Don't do it man.

Look at Ibaka this year. In 9 cat he was ranked 11th overall. These were his averages:

9 PPG 7.5 RPG .4 APG .5 SPG 3.7 BPG 53.5 FG 66 FT% 1.2 TPG

Prime Davis is going to put up better numbers than that (much better basically across the board) except in blocks and turnovers and he'll still have elite blocks. I could see:

18-20 PPG 11 RPG 2.5 APG 1.2 SPG 2.5 BPG 55 FG% 75% FT 2.5 TPG in his prime.

I don't really see his frame being a problem. He's a kid still, has wide shoulders, and even if he ended up having a body like Bosh, I still think those numbers are achievable. He was way better than Bosh as a freshman and Bosh has put up 10.8 RPG before. Davis's fantasy potential is just crazy. His game is extremely fantasy friendly.

I do like Lillard a lot too but he's not on the same level. Don't get over excited about summer league. The last Portland PG who beasted there was Bayless and he hasn't turned into anything special. Also, Lillard will likely never be an elite distributer. 4 APG as a junior isn't good. I know he's a scoring PG but that's a low number. His FG% scares me a bit too. I could see Brandon Jennings numbers (Jennings numbers this year) in Lillard's prime which was good for 19th overall this year. Low FG%, great 3s, meh assists, great steals.

Davis's upside is just much higher and he's safer as well. There's basically no chance that Davis doesn't become an elite blocker, great rebounder, and high efficiency guy. 62 FG% and 71 FT% as a freshman big? That's awesome. I personally see him with a lot of offensive upside as well. Plus, if you take Davis, you're taking the guy who has the most trade value. Don't get cute. If you want to gamble do it with your second pick.

18-20 ppg seems way too high. I put his ceiling at 15ppg 11rpg for his 1st year.

Was talking prime. Agree with the ceiling for this year.

Chi Dynasty12 wrote:I'm going through a similar dilemma in my Dynasty Rookie Draft. I have the 1st overall pick--and this may sound crazy--but I am considering drafting Lillard over Davis. I just love his skill set and ability to provide Points, Assists, and 3-pointers. I understand Davis will be a block machine, but I am just not sold on his toothpick frame.

So, somebody talk some sense into me before I shake my fantasy league up :-p

That would be a big mistake. IMO

Lillard over Davis is way too big a risk. Most point guards struggle mightily early in their careers. Just look at John Wall, he's not exactly a first-round talent and he was considered a much better prospect than Lillard. It's an especially huge adjustment for Lillard considering he played in the Big Sky conference.

Davis is just so much safer, even if he averages 12-9 with 2 blocks that's an early round big man. MKG is probably a safer pick too, he has some serious Gerald Wallace potential. I wouldn't mind Lillard as my 3rd or 4th PG, but I wouldn't consider him a building block in a dynasty league just yet.