rookies & fantasy for 09/10

PerkinsFor3 · Post #1 » by **PerkinsFor3** » Tue Jun 30, 2009 1:09 pm

Griffin obviously looks to be the best fantasy option this draft.

Then after that: Thabeet might help out a ton of teams with his blocks.

Other than that: Harden or Tyreke Evans? Will Curry have any impact? What about the other pgs: Flynn is undersized but might suprise.

And Hill? Will he be a career Oakley type? Will Clark live up to his potential and can we see Daye following in the footsteps of Fantasy favorites Josh Smith, Danny Granger and Anthony Randolph who were all drafted post 15th and became fantasy darlings.

DNYLkiller · Post #2 » by **DNYLkiller** » Tue Jun 30, 2009 11:08 pm

I think Thabeet will have one of the worst rookie seasons in the world, nay, the universe.

Post #3 » by **Young_Star11** » Wed Jul 1, 2009 1:57 am

Griffin - Emeka Okafor-type, watch the FT%, don't over-draft
Thabeet - don't expect big things. 7/7/1.5 is an early tentative projection
Harden - look for a 9-cat performer, perhaps FG% a little worry with his athleticism
Evans - Larry Hughes-type, FG% will be in low-40s I presume
Rubio - if he comes, watch the shooting percentages and TO but should be elite for a rook in ass/stl
Flynn - could be a dynamo if Rubio doesn't play
Curry - Look for a Rudy Fernandez-type line (though they are different players)
Hill - if given a chance to start, should see a peak-Frye but with blocks

Post #4 » by **Stanford** » Wed Jul 1, 2009 5:17 am

I think Curry, Griffin and Harden are draftable in a standard twelve teamer, RIGHT NOW. Evans, Rubio if he stays, Flynn if he doesn't, Hill, both of the louisville guys are worth watching closely right off the bat. I don't like Thabeet at all this year.

The summer period is key to evaluate a players position with their teams. Summer league is pretty meaningless stat-wise but usually gives a good indication what a team is looking to do with their rookies. Year after year we have a totally different view of the fantasy rookies after summer league than we did after the draft. But if you're drafting now, I'd probably only draft Curry, Griffin and Harden.

Post #5 » by **Stanford** » Thu Jul 2, 2009 8:46 pm

I wouldn't have a problem taking Flynn now.

DNYLkiller · Post #6 » by **DNYLkiller** » Sun Jul 5, 2009 2:07 am

Upstairs Jonny Flynn seems ready to ball @ an nba level

Post #7 » by **Curtis Lemansky** » Mon Jul 6, 2009 10:53 pm

If Rubio doesnt come over,this is my rankings(top-10) for next season in standard 9 cat:

Blake Griffin
Jordan Hill
James Harden
Tyreke Evans
Terrence Williams
Jonny Flynn
Hasheem Thabeet
Ty Lawson
Stephen Curry
DeJuan Blair

hamncheese · Post #8 » by **hamncheese** » Tue Jul 7, 2009 12:58 pm

nostradamus2005 wrote:If Rubio doesnt come over,this is my rankings(top-10) for next season in standard 9 cat:

Blake Griffin
Jordan Hill
James Harden
Tyreke Evans
Terrence Williams
Jonny Flynn
Hasheem Thabeet
Ty Lawson
Stephen Curry
DeJuan Blair

Griffen, Harden, Evans, Flynn, and Curry are on top for me. All should get minutes and start sometime (except maybe Curry over at GS). I'm not sure how many minutes Hill will get in NY, Williams will share minutes with CDR and Simmons in NJ, Lawson will be good, but he's backing up Billups so I'm not sure about his fantasy output, and Blair could be a solid 15 mpg reserve, but not sure if he'll be productive enough for fanatasy. Thabeet could be a nice defensive specialist but I'd like to see how Memphis uses the minutes between him and Gasol with Zach on the team.

(By the way, can anyone make sense of why Memphis acquired Zach?)

Post #9 » by **Curtis Lemansky** » Tue Jul 7, 2009 1:16 pm

IMO Hill will get plenty of playing time. They have only Lee as someone who can play pf or center and he can leave via free agency.Hill should get at least 28-30 mpg if not more.

I dont like Curry for this season as Don Nelson is very stubborn in giving rookies regular playing time and I doubt that will change for Curry too.

IMO Lawson will assume Carter's role and will post similar stats to him(I expect 4 apg 1 spg 1 three).

I think I may have ranked T.Williams a bit too high.He will get opportunity but he doesnt seem very ready,so I may bump him to the 8th spot.

Blair will surprise a lot of people. Even in 15-20 mpg,he will hit 6-7 rpg. He will probably be a 7/7 along with 1.5 spg+bpg player which would make him borderline top-10 in this rookie class as I dont see a lot of instant producers from these rookies in their first year

hamncheese · Post #10 » by **hamncheese** » Tue Jul 7, 2009 5:08 pm

My opinion on Hill is more about him as a player who didn't always have the intensity (kind of like Chris Wilcox). Knicks don't have good players at PF/C but they do have bodies such as Curry, Jeffries, Harrington, Milicic. Chandler can also play some 4.

As for Curry, Nelson has given minutes to rookies if they are good. Consider that Mitch Richmond, Tim Hardaway, Billy Ownes, Latrell Sprewell, and Chris Webber all got over 30 mpg and started as rookies under Nelson. Marciulonius was a rookie the same year as Hardaway and still got 20+ mpg. Recent rookies haven't done as well, but only Randolph may be as good as those players and the maturity/attitude issues were a legitimate concern as to why his minutes were limited. Curry shouldn't have that issue against him. Even in Dallas, Josh Howard got over 20 mpg as a late 1st round pick while playing behind Dirk, Nash, Jamion, Finley, and Walker. Admittedly, Dirk only got around 20 mpg as a rookie, but he would've been a college freshman at Cal if he didn't go into the draft, was coming fromoversees, and it was the lockout year. I'd say generally speaking, Nelson will play a rookie if he's good and mature, and Curry fits that.

Post #11 » by **Curtis Lemansky** » Tue Jul 7, 2009 6:28 pm

I can tell you that you are way off about Hill. On the contrary of what you have said,the guy is known for his intensity and energy he brings to the court.

I gotta give the benefit of doubt for Curry though. You are probably right. He will get more playing time than Randolph did in his rookie year.

Post #12 » by **Young_Star11** » Wed Jul 8, 2009 5:39 am

Curry is a great fit in GS IMO, even though NY would have been better. Should see some good 3pt numbers, but don't expect too many non-scoring stats coming out of him.

Hill can be a good play; think Wilcox who can block a few shots.

Lawson could be great in future, Anthony Carter is no long-term solution

T-Wil will probably start in NJ. Just not sure how his shooting numbers will go, but defensively he should be good for some steals.

Post #13 » by **Curtis Lemansky** » Wed Jul 8, 2009 12:14 pm

IMO %'s of T.Williams are going to be very ugly. I expect fg% to be under 40% and ft% to be under 70%

DNYLkiller · Post #14 » by **DNYLkiller** » Thu Jul 9, 2009 1:49 pm

I might regret saying this, but i don't expect Micheal Beasley..um...I mean Blake Griffin to have much impact in his 1st year

Post #15 » by **Young_Star11** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 10:39 am

DNYLkiller wrote:I might regret saying this, but i don't expect Micheal Beasley..um...I mean Blake Griffin to have much impact in his 1st year

He won't be great, I agree.

FT he was around 60% in college. That's about the only statistic you can transfer from college to the pros.

How Griffin fears as a player could easily be be reflected in how his FT% changes over time. See Karl Malone.

holeydonut · Post #16 » by **holeydonut** » Sun Jul 12, 2009 11:40 pm

I think Blair is going to get lost on the bench in San Antonio. Now that they have McD on board it'll take an injury to Timmy for Blair to get lots of PT. Bonner was used at the 5 last year to spread the floor a bit (obviously he wasn't in for his defense), and I don't think that strategy will change this year.

Rookies that I'm eye-balling are guys like Omri Casspi, Toni Douglas, and Rodrigue Beaubois. Anybody can talk about Harden and Griffin, but finding the sleeper rookies makes or breaks deep teams and dynasty leagues. For some reason the GMs that drafted these guys (the real life GMs, not the fantasy ones) went out of their way to land them. Look at Batum for Portland last year; they really wanted him to pan out so they went out of the way to get him minutes over Outlaw. If you're looking for guys that will sneak in with fantasy value, it'll be guys that get an inordinate amount of PT.

Omri is a hustle-guy who knows how to draw fouls. He can only get better, and you can bet that Francisco Garcia is going to lose PT when guys like Omri are given the chance to get experience.

Douglas is going to a team that just needs a true point guard. Assuming they fail to land Andre Miller or Ramon Sessions, Douglas is going to get some run at the point. D'Antoni hates NRob too much for him to have another stellar season.

And Mark Cuban really likes Beaubois... and Mark tends to exert more influence on his team than most owners. With JT and Kidd running point - (both aging vets), it's very likely Beaubois will get PT just out of virtue of being in the right place when the injury bug bites.