12th pick, 12-man H2H, standard 9-cat

Crackfool · Post #1 » by **Crackfool** » Thu Oct 22, 2009 10:51 pm

Aiming to pick up a big man and a point guard (PG/PF strat FTW). Looking at ADP's, what do you think about these targets?

Deron Williams (long shot, but who knows?)
Chris Bosh
Amare Stoudemire
Al Jefferson
Pau Gasol(out of these big men, Jefferson looks the most attractive, but is coming off a big injury. Amare probably has the most upside, but is a bigger risk)
Steve Nash (presumably Suns are going back to 7 seconds or less, which means big assist totals along with 3s and points, but there's little upside)
Brandon Roy (not a point guard, but very well-rounded. Assists could go down, though)
Andre Iguodala (gets PG-like numbers, but with questionable percentages)
Tim Duncan
Kevin Garnett
Joe Johnson
Chauncey Billups (solid PG numbers overall, but low upside)

Also, I am very certain the first several picks will go like this:
1. Chris Paul
2. LeBron James
3. Dwyane Wade
4. Danny Granger
5. Kevin Durant
6. Kobe Bryant
7. Dwight Howard (or Deron Williams)
8. Deron Williams (or Howard, whoever doesn't get picked, because this guy will almost certainly be on autopick)
9. Dirk Nowitzki (most likely autopick)
10. ?
11. ?
12. Me

Major_9000 · Post #2 » by **Major_9000** » Thu Oct 22, 2009 11:18 pm

Based on my drafts, you can expect to see

C/PF - Amare, Al Jefferson
PG - Nash, Billups

I personally like all four, they are all studs....ultimately, if I were picking I'd go Amare/Nash. I just think the numbers in Phx are going to be crazy this year.

Crackfool · Post #3 » by **Crackfool** » Thu Oct 22, 2009 11:35 pm

I was thinking Jefferson/Nash. Both Jefferson and Amare are injury risks, but Jefferson gives more stable big man numbers (22, 11, and 2), whereas Amare's upside (25, 10, and 2 with good %s) and downside (20, 8, and 1, with many games missed) is risky. Nash, I feel is a very safe pick. He'll get his 16 points, 9 assists, 2 threes with %s, even if he is old.

Crackfool · Post #4 » by **Crackfool** » Thu Oct 22, 2009 11:36 pm

Also, what are the prospects on Chris Bosh this season? His rebounding and block numbers have always been inconsistent from year to year.

Crackfool · Post #5 » by **Crackfool** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 10:24 pm

Any other recommendations? Picking 12th is always tough, because there's really no must-haves. Everyone's roughly on the same tier so there's little advantage to getting two straight picks, and there's a good deal of risk associated with each player.

rpa · Post #6 » by **rpa** » Sat Oct 24, 2009 12:42 am

If you're going PG/PF strat then your PG choice is pretty much Billups. Nash doesn't have the steals and Deron/Roy don't have high enough 3ptm (they're greater than 1 but I think you need over 1.5ish for the strategy to work). For the big you need rebounds/blocks/fg%. Sounds like Big Al to me. Amare has better upside but his blocks & rebounds aren't "elite" (though he'd go a long way in helping you win in FT%). Bosh doesn't really have the blocks and his FG% is slightly lower than what you'd like out of your top big man (though, like Amare, Bosh will help your FT%).

I know this isn't what you asked for but I'd personally ditch the PG/PF strat for H2H. The pro's of it are that you're good but not great in every category across the board. The problem, in my mind, is that you'll have people punting categories so that they can be really good or domination in 4-5, decent or good in 2 more, and horrible in the remaining. When you go up against the punters you're going to beat them, most likely, in the cats they punt + the cats they aren't super strong in but you're going to have to beat them in at least 1 of their dominant categories to win. I don't think that can be counted on week in and week out to work.

With that in mind I'd probably go PF/PF at 12/13 and build on that. I'd go with 2 of Bosh/Amare/Gasol (preferably Bosh/Amare), pick David Lee in round 3 (Ronnie Brewer + Thad Young later on) and then build my team around being dominant in rebounds, fg%, ft%, and turnovers (keep them low) and solid in points & steals (Amare/Bosh/Lee are all VERY good in steals for big men). This strategy has you punting assists & 3pters.

Crackfool · Post #7 » by **Crackfool** » Sat Oct 24, 2009 8:05 pm

Hmmmm. . . interesting strategy. The only problem is that I'm uncomfortable with punting two big categories like that, especially when I know I can outdraft my friends in those cats. I know my friends' drafting strategies, and most of them don't plan out that far ahead to punt specific cats. Though I might consider punting steals if I get Nash. It's just that other than Paul and Deron, he's the only player who can get 10 assists a night, and I know I'll be able to build on that. I was also thinking of drafting Gerald Wallace down the line for some all-around support.

Also, my league uses specific positions (PG, SG, etc) so it'll be tougher to really punt assists. Threes might be doable, though.

midranger · Post #8 » by **midranger** » Sat Oct 24, 2009 8:59 pm

All categories are worth the same, there are no "big" categories. It's not tough to punt 3pt and assists. Just draft a score first PG like Stuckey, Monta Ellis, or Lou Williams.

These are guys you can find late, while developing your dominance categories early.

rpa · Post #9 » by **rpa** » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:40 pm

Crackfool wrote:Hmmmm. . . interesting strategy. The only problem is that I'm uncomfortable with punting two big categories like that, especially when I know I can outdraft my friends in those cats. I know my friends' drafting strategies, and most of them don't plan out that far ahead to punt specific cats. Though I might consider punting steals if I get Nash. It's just that other than Paul and Deron, he's the only player who can get 10 assists a night, and I know I'll be able to build on that. I was also thinking of drafting Gerald Wallace down the line for some all-around support.

Also, my league uses specific positions (PG, SG, etc) so it'll be tougher to really punt assists. Threes might be doable, though.

One of the reasons behind using the PG/PF strategy is that assists are very dense among PGs. As you point out, only those 3 PGs can get 10 assists per game. That's why punting assists can actually be a very sound strategy. When everyone else thinks "I need another PG w/ assists" and starts reaching for Chris Duhon, etc. in the 7th round you can sit back and take players with better value.

retrospect24 · Post #10 » by **retrospect24** » Sun Oct 25, 2009 2:55 am

I was in a similar position. 12th pick, 14 man H2H 9 cat. So while I wasn't able to get the back to back picks, I w=had to make the same decisions you made. I went with an Al Jefferson & Steve Nash combo. My first pick was between Al Jeff, Deron, and Amare. I didn't want Deron because of the big selection of round 2 PGs. Between Al Jeff and Amare (my draft was before Al's recent injury woes) I figured Al Jeff is a safer, more stable pick. Billups was gone right before my second pick, so I basically has a choice between Nash, Calderon, Kidd, and Harris. Nash seemed like the obvious choice here. My team is really strong in FG%, 3's, FT%, and rebounds.

Good luck!