Odds of lockout in 2011?

[see4miles]

Going with things as they are I'd say 100%. I don't know when the TV agreement comes up again but it will be much, much less.

I'd say the Bucks and Pacers (amongst others)will really be feeling the economic pinch in terms of attendance revenue, parking etc...

I think it will be very interesting to see how the Players' Union negotiate/justify salary increases as it will be even harder to justify those salaries when the economy is doing badly.

The articles have started already too...

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/2008-10- ... titialskip

[FGump]

I don't see the word lockout (or even the concept) in that article at all.

As for the idea that salaries may go down, that's no deal breaker. The NBA and the players are a partnership, and it's one which includes some degree of shared risk and shared revenues. If revenues go down, salaries will also go down, and they've already agreed on that. If today's economic downturn continues, there is likely to be significant belt tightening needed on both sides, but that doesn't mandate a labor disagreement or work stoppage. It just means they will be splitting a smaller pie.

[Dunkenstein]

17-5 against.

[see4miles]

Any change in those odds, Dunenstein?

NBA Commissioner David Stern has revealed that only half of the NBA franchises are making a profit, according to a report from USA Today columnist Jon Saraceno.

Stern said he had no concern whatsoever that some clubs might be overleveraged and in potential trouble: "Our franchises are subject to debt limitations."

The commissioner asked for a "pass" on whether some economically embattled owners would favor letting the collective bargaining agreement — set to expire in 2011 — lapse, leading to a work stoppage.

"It would be premature for me to speculate now, other than to say that our owners are going to be very focused," Stern said, adding it was the league's goal to appoint a labor-relations committee this season to get a jump on negotiations."

[Dunkenstein]

But one team executive told Newsday yesterday that owners are worried about the economic downturn and might be inclined to let the current collective-bargaining agreement with the NBA Players Association lapse after the 2010-11 season rather than extend it one more year. That executive said only "five to seven" NBA teams are profitable and raised the possibility of a lockout in 2011 if teams face more strain than Stern predicted. "You're going to have owners pushing for a better deal," said the executive, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "This is one of the years the NBA is worried that overall revenues may be a little bit down."
--Newsday

Vegas just posted the new odds as 5 to 7 against.

[Charcoal Filtered]

This really does not come as a surprise. First, accountants can work wonders with numbers. Second, there are alot of teams that put profitability pretty low on its priority list.

I was going to list the knuckleheaded moves made by teams. The list was too big. Only a handfull deserve to be profitable.

[shrink]

I think the owners are taking steps to make the league more financially feasible now, and the players are following suit. Teams are making serious attempts to get under the lux, and in 2010, several are aiming for the salary cap. I felt that the most recent round of new contracts had far fewer overpaid deals than in the past, particularly for guys that are not stars -- just rotation players. Half the teams with MLE's barely touched them. Ben Gordon didn't get the money he wanted. Those longterm $20 mil deals from a few years back are finally coming off the books. And the players, in general, are signing these new contracts for lesser amounts of money.

A lot is made about labor fighting management, and we've seen work stoppages in the major sports before. However, as FGump points out, labor and management in the NBA are a partnership. That';s something that's not mentioned often enough, and it seems that most players are understanding that both sides need to work together. Entertainment revenue may go down as the public tightens its belt, and the player's and management seem to understand its better to share a smaller pie than to throw it in the trash.