What if likely incentives >15% of base become unlikely?

[Davidmon5]

What happens to "likely" incentives if they are reclassified as "unlikely," bringing them over the 15% cap?

I see four options:
-They are permanently shrunk down to fit within the 15%
-They are temporarily shrunk down to fit within the 15%
-All but 15% worth of incentives are permanently eliminated from the contract
-All but 15% worth of incentives are temporarily suspended for the following year

The difference is important, in case the incentives become "likely" again.

Background:
-Performance based incentives are classified either as likely or unlikely, based upon whether or not they were achieved in the previous season. (The union or league can request a third-party review if extenuating circumstances, such as a trade, make the previous season a faulty indicator.)
-"Unlikely" incentives are limited to 15% of the base salary. There is no limit for likely incentives (using a $5 mil MLE, a perennial playoff contender could sign a player to a $2 mil salary with a 150%/$3 mil "likely" bonus for making the playoffs).
-The first year of the contract, the base salary plus all likely and unlikely incentives must fit entirely within the team's cap space or salary cap exception.
-In subsequent years, only likely bonuses count against team salary (for the cap or luxury tax), unlikely bonuses do not.

EXAMPLE:
The Thunder, a non tax-paying team that was eliminated from the NBA Finals this year, decides to sign free agent Charles Barley using their $5 million MLE. They sign him to a base salary of $2 million, with the following incentives:
15%/$300K for winning the NBA Championship (unlikely)
15%/$300K for making the NBA Finals (likely)
15%/$300K for making the WCF. (likely)
15%/$300K for making the Conference Semi-Finals (likely)
15%/$300K for making the playoffs. (likely)
This contract is legal, because the unlikely portion of the incentives is only 15% of the base salary. Additionally, the base salary ($2 mil) plus the sum of all incentives ($1.5 mil) is $4.5 mil, which fits entirely within the $5 million exception.

But it turns out the signing does not work out well, as Barkley is in bad shape after being out so long, and OKC misses the playoffs in 2013. Now all of the incentives are reclassified as "unlikely." What happens for 2013-2014? Are all incentives reduced to $60K so that they all fit within the 15% limit on unlikely bonuses? Are four out of the five suspended for the following season? Are four out of the five completely stricken from the contract?

Now let's say with Barkley's continued Weight Watchers success and a #1 overall draft pick, OKC wins the NBA Finals in 2014. All of Barkley's original incentives would now be classified as "likely" and count against the team salary cap. But are they still there? Do they grow back from $60K to the original $300K? Were they lost forever in the previous season?

I've reviewed the 2005 CBA, and only found where it states that unlikely incentives shall not exceed 25% of the base salary in any given year. It doesn't say what happens if this limit is exceeded due to reclassification of the incentives. I imagine the 2011 CBA has retained much of the same verbiage, though the limit has been reduced to 15%.

I would like to think that the contract itself could stipulate which of the four results happen, but incentives also must be absolute and not relative (a player can have an incentive for scoring 8 ppg, but not for improving his scoring average over the previous season). Wouldn't incentives that vary based on how the team performed in the previous season be "relative?" If so, it seems the team and player would be prohibited from specifying in the contract whether incentives would shrink or be struck in this example.

Can anyone help?

[Davidmon5]

And a quick follow-up question: Question 72 of the CBA Bible says that incentives are limited to the same raises and decreases as their contract (i.e. max 4.5% per year raise or decrease for an MLE, 7.5% for a Bird contract). Though incentives have the same limitations on year-to-year changes, do they have to be pegged to what the rest of the contract is doing?

For example, say you have a 15 ppg Larry Bird rights player who is on the decline and likely signing the last contract of his career. Could you sign him for a base salary of $5 million per year with a 7.5% per year decrease (since his skills are declining), but with a $1 million incentive for averaging 10 ppg that increases 7.5% every year (thus increasing the proportion of the contract that is incentive every year)?