RealGM

How much will Lebron be eligible to get in his next max contract?

If he decides to opt in on his ETO and his player option, will he then get more with the subsequent contract?

Also, in the new CBA you can only sign a player for a maximum of five years, that is ETO and player option included right?

Wow. That’s a lot of questions without clear answers as yet.

Alienware wrote:How much will Lebron be eligible to get in his next max contract?

That depends on several factors, including when/if he opts out of his existing contract and if his next contract is signed utilizing Bird rights. Whenever he signs his next contract, he’d be eligible for a starting salary equal to the greater of: (i) 105% of his previous salary and (ii) 35% of the adjusted cap. His contract would be limited to five years in length, with raises up to 7.5% of the salary in the first season of the contract, if he were signed with Bird rights; if not, then it’s four years and 4.5% raises.

Alienware wrote:If he decides to opt in on his ETO and his player option, will he then get more with the subsequent contract?

By “opt in,” I assume you mean to ask if he could make more total money if he played out his existing contract and then signed a max contract thereafter. That’s a tricky question to answer.

Using your strategy, he’d be signing for up to eight years from today (opting in through 2016, plus an up-to five year contract through 2021). If he were to opt out after next season, he’d be signing for up to six years from today (through 2019). But the two extra years could be made up on the back end.

Perhaps the best way to compare the two strategies is in the overlapping seasons. If he were to opt in, he’d be making $20.59 million in 2014-15 and $22.11 million in 2015-16. If he were to opt out, he would likely make less money over those two years in his new contract (but this will depend on future cap levels).

This is one of the things I find very interesting about the countless websites that suggest he can earn more money by opting out early, because he is currently earning less than a max contract. While he could most definitely add more years after next season (as opposed to having to wait for two additional seasons to do so), his per season salary would likely decrease over the two seasons he opted out of (if only slightly). Of course, that might be a trade-off he’d be willing to make, given whatever factors he deems important (his advancing age, more up front financial security, a desire to play elsewhere, a desire to play for the minimum salary because he loves the citizens of Miami, etc.).

Alienware wrote:Also, in the new CBA you can only sign a player for a maximum of five years, that is ETO and player option included right?

Yes.

Thanks for the time in answering, you cleared a couple of my doubts. My biggest doubt about his next contract was indeed related to the fact that he didn't take the full max in this contract, and that he could have been sacrificing money in his next contract too. Of course that depends also on the salary cap in 2014.

With the current cap and he opting out in 2014 his max should be like 118 in 5 if my math isn't wrong.

Actually, I don’t mean to confuse you, but the fact that he signed for less than the max last time around will likely affect his next contract as well. Let me explain why.

Had he received the full max in July 2010, his 2013-14 salary would have been $21.8 million (instead of the $19.1 million it currently is). If he were to then have exercised his hypothetical ETO and signed another max contract in 2014, his starting salary for 2014-15 would likely have been 105% of that, or $22.9 million. That would have produced a max contract of, at the very least, 5 years and $132 million if he re-signed with the current world champion Miami Heat.

In his current contract, if he were to exercise his very real ETO and sign a max contract in 2014, his starting salary for 2014-15 will likely be 35% of the adjusted 2014-15 cap. Using my personal projections of where the cap will be (which are based on the league’s own revenue projections at the time the CBA was written), I am showing your math to be perfect: 5 years and $118 million if he re-signs with the Heat. However, I would imagine the league will provide updated projections after July Moratorium (and multiple times thereafter), so that’s just a meaningless guess.

Therefore, his decision to take less money affected not only his current contract but also very likely his next. It was a sacrifice he was willing to make. I hope that makes sense.

Of course, this is all wild speculation about what LeBron will ultimately choose to do. If you were to ask ten people on these forums, you might get ten different answers.

At the end of the day, he's still incredibly wealthy.

$118 million over five years? Jesus. That's more than I earn over fifteen!

I didn't explain myself well enough but that's exactly what I meant, he sacrificed money for this contract and also his next contract.

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