Front Office Operations

[Resistance]

What do Front Offices use to do their work such as:

* Tracking draft pick obligations owed by various teams

* Calculating future team salaries for various trade scenarios

* "Whiteboarding" various roster scenarios

* Tracking contract restrictions in regards to when players can be traded

* Similar things that are within the sphere of the CBA and/or salary related


Are complex spreadsheets the main method used for the above or is there something else that is
primarily used by Front Offices?

[Smitty731]

No team is open about their tools, but you can be assured that they are varied and all over the place.

For example, several team personnel I have met admit that they use RealGM for tracking draft picks, players, and other information.

Most have their own databases to track salaries and the like.

Also, many teams openly admit to using the CBA FAQ to answer questions when they are unsure. And several team executives were in attendance at the Sports Business Classroom session hosted by Larry Coon, Eric Pincus and Nate Duncan.

The days of teams doing everything themselves are over. Like in any smart business, teams admit that they can learn from anyone and that the smartest info might be outside of the organization. They use their resources all over to get what they need.

[Resistance]

Thank you for answering my question.

I have an additional followup question.

To create and maintain your own salary and roster sheets, do you use a database or a spreadsheet?

[Smitty731]

Thank you for answering my question.

I have an additional followup question.

To create and maintain your own salary and roster sheets, do you use a database or a spreadsheet?

I started with just an Excel workbook. Once it got a little too big, I created a database using Access to house a lot of the information.

I still work primarily in Excel because it is the tool I am most comfortable with. Access just houses the historical stuff for me.

And I'm far from a programmer or anything, so building what I have built is child's play for a lot of people. And I'm sure there are far superior ways to do it too. I always say with Excel, Access and most tools there is no one right way to do something. There are many ways of getting to the same answer.

[Resistance]

Again, thank you for your responses.

I have another question that is somewhat related to my earlier questions.


There are a fair number of people using various analytics models to project
oncourt performances for players and teams based on trends and past history.


Do you know of any methods - projects that Front Offices use to determine what
a "Fair Trade" would be between teams for players?

Most fans appear to use fairly unstructured methods to give suggestions on the "Value"
of players in a trade. I don't know if Front Offices are much the same or are
several levels above that in sophistication when doing analysis on possible trades.

A trading Black Box could include the projections from the basketball analytics side
along with some things such as:

* Age

* NBA experience

* Impact in the locker room

* Leadership abilities (or lack of)

* Maturity (or lack of)

* Discipline issues

* Injury history and projections on future health

* etc

[Smitty731]

Again, thank you for your responses.

I have another question that is somewhat related to my earlier questions.


There are a fair number of people using various analytics models to project
oncourt performances for players and teams based on trends and past history.


Do you know of any methods - projects that Front Offices use to determine what
a "Fair Trade" would be between teams for players?

Most fans appear to use fairly unstructured methods to give suggestions on the "Value"
of players in a trade. I don't know if Front Offices are much the same or are
several levels above that in sophistication when doing analysis on possible trades.

A trading Black Box could include the projections from the basketball analytics side
along with some things such as:

* Age

* NBA experience

* Impact in the locker room

* Leadership abilities (or lack of)

* Maturity (or lack of)

* Discipline issues

* Injury history and projections on future health

* etc

Very few of those things are something you can really objectively quantify. Most of them are guesses. Any analyst telling you their model can accurately predict impact in a locker room is full of it. And I work in analytics for a living. All analytics do is help you to make decisions.

I think you might be surprised to learn that most GMs aren't all that different than how we think of it as fans, in a very high level sense. Basically, the thought process is a combo of:

Is it a legal deal? (This is always first.)
Does it improve the team now?
Does it improve the team in the future?
Does it fit with the direction and goals we have as a franchise?

And then they go. Are their models and tools involved? Of course. But don't over-complicate the data that goes in. Most of the complication for a GM comes around answering the above questions.

[Resistance]

Do you know of any research - formulas to assign valuations to future draft picks?


I have general idea of when a trade proposal in the Trades Forum is somewhat balanced or not at all balanced. Unfortunately, I haven't been able yet to transfer my thoughts into a process - formula that could be described enough to be put down on paper.

[DBoys]

We can say with certainty that the better the pick, and the better the draft year, then the better the value. And in general, the more picks you have, then the better chance you have of getting a player who helps. But when applied to any specific future pick, putting a number (say from 1-100) on the value is just a crapshoot, because there's so much unknown. Such as:
1 the exact pick number that is being obtained or traded away
2 what specific players will be in that specific draft
3 what players will still be available when that pick is made
4 the drafting skill (or lack of same) for each team in the mix.

[Resistance]

I realize there is going to be a huge range on the values depending on the factors you named and perhaps some others.

An example would be the 2017 first round pick owed by the Lakers to Philadelphia. It is protected #1 - #3 and there would be some valuation swings during the season depending on how the Lakers were doing. In the interim between the end of season and the lottery drawing, the percentages would be known on whether LA would keep that pick.

The Clippers owe a 2017 first round pick to Toronto that is protected #1 - #14.

I think that most would expect the Clippers to be in the Playoffs and thus Toronto will be getting that pick. There are some who think that the Lakers will have decent odds of retaining their 2017 first round pick which would also impact the 2019 first round pick owed to Orlando.

There are many moving parts to consider when trying to assign a valuation to a future draft pick and I was wondering what research (if any) has been done on this topic.

[Smitty731]

I realize there is going to be a huge range on the values depending on the factors you named and perhaps some others.

An example would be the 2017 first round pick owed by the Lakers to Philadelphia. It is protected #1 - #3 and there would be some valuation swings during the season depending on how the Lakers were doing. In the interim between the end of season and the lottery drawing, the percentages would be known on whether LA would keep that pick.

The Clippers owe a 2017 first round pick to Toronto that is protected #1 - #14.

I think that most would expect the Clippers to be in the Playoffs and thus Toronto will be getting that pick. There are some who think that the Lakers will have decent odds of retaining their 2017 first round pick which would also impact the 2019 first round pick owed to Orlando.

There are many moving parts to consider when trying to assign a valuation to a future draft pick and I was wondering what research (if any) has been done on this topic.

This isn't exactly what you are talking about, but it might help a little:

I know from talking with a few teams that they use a Draft Value Chart, similar to the one used by the NFL. The challenge is that with only 60 total picks, each pick, in theory, has more value than the majority of the 200+ or so in the NFL.

If you aren't familiar with that chart/model, what is basically does is assigns every pick a point value. I don't have it handy, but let's say the 1st overall pick is given a value of 2000 and the 10th overall pick is 500, and the 20th is 200, and so on, you basically add up all the point values to see if a trade is "fair" or not. This is highly used in the NFL where you have a lot more moving parts and you want to know something like: "Does a 6th rounder and a 7th rounder equal a late 5th rounder?"

The NBA teams who are using these are in a different place and the decisions aren't as complex. It is more of a case of: "Do I like a player who is available and can I get that pick to get him?" and they go from there. The NFL teams try to balance it by adding what they determine to be relatively equal pieces.

Now, as DBoys said, it fluctuates greatly. The 1st overall pick doesn't have the same value in every single draft. Sometimes it is a can't miss, generational talent. Other times, it is more of a crapshoot. Think Ben Simmons this year vs Anthony Bennett a few years ago.

When you get in to projecting things multiple years out, it gets even more complicated. You don't even know who will be available in what Draft. And every team places different values on picks period. The Clippers, for example, trade draft picks away as currency to get known commodities to fill out their rotation. The 76ers hoarded them and prized them as if they were gold.

All of this is a very long way of saying there isn't consistency and it is all done far more on feel than based of any set formula.

[Resistance]

Thank you both for the responses.

There is quite a bit of activity - research in the analytics side measuring player performance and comparing against other players. I have been looking for similar activity in regards to other front office operations and really haven't found much.

[Resistance]

New Orleans brought in Danny Ferry to help Demps and Sacramento brought in Ken Catanella to help Vlade. Executives such as David Kahn, Billy King and Joe Dumars have been removed from power, so there have been changes in recent years. My impression is that Front Offices across the league are stronger as a group than they used to be.

Is there a web site or a person that evaluates & compares the Front Offices of the present to Front Offices of the past? I realize it is something that is difficult to quantify, but I am curious to see if my impression of overall improvement in Front Offices is correct.