TP9, Implications of Waive and Stretch

[pad300]

Ok, Tony Parker has a major injury (I have seen timelines on the web of up to a year...), is 35 in 10 or so days, and has a year left on his contract (worth ~15 million). The Spurs would presumably want to be able to do something with the capspace next year.

Either he retires or he doesn't.

IF he retires, SAS can waive and stretch, spreading that $15 million into years of $5 Million cap hits, or they could apply for the medical retirement exclusion : http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q63 . I believe there is no value in the exclusion in this case, as it would apply only in the playoffs next year, when his salary would be dropping off anyways...

IF he doesn't retire, SAS can a) eat his salary, b) apply for a disabled player exception ( http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q25 scroll down), or c) waive and stretch him anyways. This is where it gets a little interesting. Eating it means no change in their salary cap situation. The Disabled Player would allow them to sign a player for 1 yr at the non-taxpayer MLE ($8.4 Million), but they have to prove to the league they expect TP to be "substantially more likely than not to be unable to play through the following June 15" (2018). That's dicey - a rough median of suggest recovery times are 9 months. Their final option is waiving and stretching him - so his cap hit drops to $5 million for 3 years.

What I am not clear on is when/if SAS can they re-sign TP if they waive & stretch him this summer (2017)? What does this do to his bird rights/non bird rights and salary cap hold in summer 2018?

I believe a) They can resign him after 1 year after the waiver dates (ie. summer 2018), b) They would have no special rights and would need to use cap-space or another exception, and c) his new contract (whatever it is in 2018 - say the Room Exception) would count against the salary cap, as well as the stretched portion of his old contract (~5 Million in 2018 and 2019). Can anyone shed some light on this?

[DBoys]

"What I am not clear on is when/if SAS can they re-sign TP if they waive & stretch him this summer (2017)? What does this do to his bird rights/non bird rights and salary cap hold in summer 2018?"

If he is waived, he is not on SA roster any longer. So there is no FA cap hold, and there are no Bird rights in summer 2018 in your scenario. If stretch-waived, there are some ramifications re SA under the new CBA rules. If not SW'ed, he can sign with anyone he wishes at any point.

[pad300]

"What I am not clear on is when/if SAS can they re-sign TP if they waive & stretch him this summer (2017)? What does this do to his bird rights/non bird rights and salary cap hold in summer 2018?"

If he is waived, he is not on SA roster any longer. So there is no FA cap hold, and there are no Bird rights in summer 2018 in your scenario. If stretch-waived, there are some ramifications re SA under the new CBA rules. If not SW'ed, he can sign with anyone he wishes at any point.

Thank you DBoys, can you expand on " If stretch-waived, there are some ramifications re SA under the new CBA rules." That is really where I was going with this. If they Waive and Stretch him this summer, to free up $10 Million in capspace, can they re-sign him post-rehab in the summer of 2018?

[DBoys]

Yes. As long as they have enough cap room for whatever deal he might command, of course.

I would think that a waiver of any kind is quite unlikely if there's any scenario in which he could be playing again in 11 months, even. Since they will pay him for the whole year either way, there's not a lot of downside to having the door open to him coming back at the tail end of the season, plus the playoffs. What a bonus that could provide.

[pad300]

Thank you DBoys.

I am a lot less comfortable with the no waiver thing than you. There are 2 scenarios
1) No waiver, SAS needs a starting PG and they are stuck with paying Mills the money on his bird rights. Mills might not be a starting level pg... and they would be comitted to a large-ish contract
2) Waiver, they can bring Parker back in 18/19, if he wants and is recovered enough (it is doubtful IMO that he will recover enough to really be a starter anymore). They have $20 million in capspace without any further action - they have options for a PG. Further they can potentially recruit CP3. Which is the kind of deal they need to really compete in the next 3-5 years. The warriors have raised the bar to 2 MVP candidate level players.

[DBoys]

If you're saying they could have 20M in cap room this summer, if they s-w Parker, I have real doubts, unless you're assuming Gasol won't return. (But to me that's not realistic.)

Do the math. You can't pay Paul 20M unless you limit your summer cap level to 81M. But assuming Parker is a s-w, then paying LA, Kawhi, Green, and Gasol, and getting rid of EVERYONE else and filling the rest of the roster with minimum salary players, and your payroll for 12 is already AT LEAST 81M. Probably more.

Of course, "getting rid of everyone else" is neither practical nor a likely choice by the Spurs. It strips the team of the young developing talent, and the underpaid veterans too. So if they want to keep some of the existing role players, from among Simmons, Mills, Dedmon, Lee, Forbes, Bertans, Anderson, Murray, etc, then whichever of those they keep too will eat into that 20M.

Now we're down to 15M or 10M or something. Would CP, whose max is 36M, leave LA and come to a SA team with a skeleton roster, for peanuts relatively speaking? I don't see it.

[pad300]

If you're saying they could have 20M in cap room this summer, if they s-w Parker, I have real doubts, unless you're assuming Gasol won't return. (But to me that's not realistic.)

Do the math. You can't pay Paul 20M unless you limit your summer cap level to 81M. But assuming Parker is a s-w, then paying LA, Kawhi, Green, and Gasol, and getting rid of EVERYONE else and filling the rest of the roster with minimum salary players, and your payroll for 12 is already AT LEAST 81M. Probably more.

Of course, "getting rid of everyone else" is neither practical nor a likely choice by the Spurs. It strips the team of the young developing talent, and the underpaid veterans too. So if they want to keep some of the existing role players, from among Simmons, Mills, Dedmon, Lee, Forbes, Bertans, Anderson, Murray, etc, then whichever of those they keep too will eat into that 20M.

Now we're down to 15M or 10M or something. Would CP, whose max is 36M, leave LA and come to a SA team with a skeleton roster, for peanuts relatively speaking? I don't see it.

The baseline is here: http://hoopshype.com/salaries/san_antonio_spurs/

They have 93 million on the books + cap holds for Ginobili, Mills and Simmons. That 93 Million includes Lee, Pau, and Dedmon opting in. I don't expect Pau to opt out (of $16.2 Million; not unless they pull a side deal and offer him 3/30 or something if he opts out...). Lee and Dedmon are unknowns; I would guess at least one of them opts in... If not, they are replaceable (another guy in Europe named Milutinov). They will drop Gino's hold (the only way he comes back is for the vet min). Simmon's hold is tiny ~1.5 million, and they may let him walk - they have a guy named Hanga in Europe who's making noises about coming over. If they are getting another PG, they are letting Mills go...

That's roughly $10 million in capspace (assuming a $103 Million Cap), add $10 Million from a waive and stretch, and that roughly $20 Million. Your right it's not CP3 money - that would require moving one of LA or Pau... But if they don't think Mills should be their starter/get starter money - $20 million is a much better place to be than $10 Million.

[DBoys]

Even using your preferred assumptions, your capology is way off. And cap this summer is expected at 101.

Not sure how to put this into a post where it's still a spreadsheet, but bottom line is 13.xxM of cap room (or less). Here are those numbers if going for cap room:

LaMarcus Aldridge $21,461,010 .
Kawhi Leonard $18,868,625 .
Pau Gasol $16,197,500 player accepts option
Danny Green $10,000,000 .
Dewayne Dedmon $3,028,410 player accepts option
Kyle Anderson $2,151,704 .
Jonathan Simmons $1,671,382 RFA hold
Dejounte Murray $1,312,611 .
Davis Bertans $1,312,611 .
1st rounder #29 $1,404,600 .
empty slot hold $815,615 .
empty slot hold $815,615 .
Tim Duncan (stretched) $1,881,250 .
Jean-Charles (waived) $1,035,200 .
Tony Parker (stretch) $5,151,042 .
Manu Ginobili 0 FA - rights/hold renounced
Patty Mills 0 FA - Bird hold is 6,800,001 - renounced
David Lee 0 FA - player declines option - hold renounced
Forbes 0 waived (can't re-sign)
12 roster slot total $87,107,175 .
cap $101,000,000 .
cap room $13,892,825 .

However, that list uses an approach that favors chasing cap room for a single player at the cost of many others. And I can see instead a very real possibility they opt for working the over-cap scenario where they would have ZERO cap room, which would allow for the possibility of ALL of the following:
* re-signing Mills,
* re-signing Ginobili,
* keeping Parker,
* having the big MLE to try to fill the PG needs, and
* having a BAE

[sportscrazy]

Even using your preferred assumptions, your capology is way off. And cap this summer is expected at 101.

Not sure how to put this into a post where it's still a spreadsheet, but bottom line is 13.xxM of cap room (or less). Here are those numbers if going for cap room:

LaMarcus Aldridge $21,461,010 .
Kawhi Leonard $18,868,625 .
Pau Gasol $16,197,500 player accepts option
Danny Green $10,000,000 .
Dewayne Dedmon $3,028,410 player accepts option
Kyle Anderson $2,151,704 .
Jonathan Simmons $1,671,382 RFA hold
Dejounte Murray $1,312,611 .
Davis Bertans $1,312,611 .
1st rounder #29 $1,404,600 .
empty slot hold $815,615 .
empty slot hold $815,615 .
Tim Duncan (stretched) $1,881,250 .
Jean-Charles (waived) $1,035,200 .
Tony Parker (stretch) $5,151,042 .
Manu Ginobili 0 FA - rights/hold renounced
Patty Mills 0 FA - Bird hold is 6,800,001 - renounced
David Lee 0 FA - player declines option - hold renounced
Forbes 0 waived (can't re-sign)
12 roster slot total $87,107,175 .
cap $101,000,000 .
cap room $13,892,825 .

However, that list uses an approach that favors chasing cap room for a single player at the cost of many others. And I can see instead a very real possibility they opt for working the over-cap scenario where they would have ZERO cap room, which would allow for the possibility of ALL of the following:
* re-signing Mills,
* re-signing Ginobili,
* keeping Parker,
* having the big MLE to try to fill the PG needs, and
* having a BAE

I have a few questions...

1. What are the rules for the Gilbert Arenas Rule under the new CBA? If the Spurs keep Jonathan Simmons Cap Hold, could they meet the $101 Million salary cap then re-sign him to whatever contract?

2. Let's say the Spurs go all in on MAX'ing Chris Paul and make the following moves...

A. Manu Ginobili retires

B. David Lee and Pau Gasol opts in, Bryn Forbes is kept, Jonathan Simmons and Dwayne Dedmon cap holds are retained and PAtty Mills cap hold is renounced

C. The Spurs trade the 29th Overall Draft Pick for Two 2017 Second Round Draft Picks

D. The Spurs trade LaMarcus Aldridge to the Celtics for Jae Crowder

E. The Spurs trade Pau Gasol to the Knicks for Kyle O'Quinn

F. The Spurs stretch-waive Tony Parker

G. The Spurs sign Chris Paul to the MAX

Is there enough cap space remaining to realistically re-sign Dewayne Dedmon? And could they then use Simmons' cap hold to re-sign him once the cap is met?

[sportscrazy]

Salary Cap: $101,000,000

LaMarcus Aldridge - 21,461,010
Kawhi Leonard - 18,868,625
Pau Gasol - 16,197,500
Tony Parker - 15,453,126
Danny Green - 10,000,000
David Lee - 2,328,652
Kyle Anderson - 2,151,704
Dejounte Murray - 1,312,611
Bryn Forbes - 1,312,611
Davis Bertans - 1,312,611
29th Overall Draft Pick Cap Hold - 1,404,600
Nikola Milutinov - 1,465,920
Jonathan Simmons Cap Hold - 1,671,382
Dewayne Dedmon Cap Hold - 3,477,600
Tim Duncan Salary - 1,881,250
Livio Jean-Charles Salary - 1,035,200
Cap Space: -334,402

Draft Pick Trade
Cap Space: 1,070,198

Stretch Tony Parker
Cap Space: 11,372,282

Aldridge and Gasol Trades
Cap Space: 38,147,175

MAX Chris Paul
Cap Space: 2,797,175

Contract Able To Re-Sign Dewayne Dedmon: 6,274,775 1st Year Salary

If that's not enough for Dedmon, the Spurs probably wait another year to bring over Nikola Milutinov and add the additional cap space created to Dedmon's offer.

[Smitty731]

Even using your preferred assumptions, your capology is way off. And cap this summer is expected at 101.

Not sure how to put this into a post where it's still a spreadsheet, but bottom line is 13.xxM of cap room (or less). Here are those numbers if going for cap room:

LaMarcus Aldridge $21,461,010 .
Kawhi Leonard $18,868,625 .
Pau Gasol $16,197,500 player accepts option
Danny Green $10,000,000 .
Dewayne Dedmon $3,028,410 player accepts option
Kyle Anderson $2,151,704 .
Jonathan Simmons $1,671,382 RFA hold
Dejounte Murray $1,312,611 .
Davis Bertans $1,312,611 .
1st rounder #29 $1,404,600 .
empty slot hold $815,615 .
empty slot hold $815,615 .
Tim Duncan (stretched) $1,881,250 .
Jean-Charles (waived) $1,035,200 .
Tony Parker (stretch) $5,151,042 .
Manu Ginobili 0 FA - rights/hold renounced
Patty Mills 0 FA - Bird hold is 6,800,001 - renounced
David Lee 0 FA - player declines option - hold renounced
Forbes 0 waived (can't re-sign)
12 roster slot total $87,107,175 .
cap $101,000,000 .
cap room $13,892,825 .

However, that list uses an approach that favors chasing cap room for a single player at the cost of many others. And I can see instead a very real possibility they opt for working the over-cap scenario where they would have ZERO cap room, which would allow for the possibility of ALL of the following:
* re-signing Mills,
* re-signing Ginobili,
* keeping Parker,
* having the big MLE to try to fill the PG needs, and
* having a BAE

I have a few questions...

1. What are the rules for the Gilbert Arenas Rule under the new CBA? If the Spurs keep Jonathan Simmons Cap Hold, could they meet the $101 Million salary cap then re-sign him to whatever contract?

2. Let's say the Spurs go all in on MAX'ing Chris Paul and make the following moves...

A. Manu Ginobili retires

B. David Lee and Pau Gasol opts in, Bryn Forbes is kept, Jonathan Simmons and Dwayne Dedmon cap holds are retained and PAtty Mills cap hold is renounced

C. The Spurs trade the 29th Overall Draft Pick for Two 2017 Second Round Draft Picks

D. The Spurs trade LaMarcus Aldridge to the Celtics for Jae Crowder

E. The Spurs trade Pau Gasol to the Knicks for Kyle O'Quinn

F. The Spurs stretch-waive Tony Parker

G. The Spurs sign Chris Paul to the MAX

Is there enough cap space remaining to realistically re-sign Dewayne Dedmon? And could they then use Simmons' cap hold to re-sign him once the cap is met?

I know you are really active on the Trade Board, so the second scenario is best worked out there. We don't really do a lot of hypothetical roster building scenarios on this board.

Thanks!

Smitty

[sportscrazy]

1. What are the rules for the Gilbert Arenas Rule under the new CBA? If the Spurs keep Jonathan Simmons Cap Hold, could they meet the $101 Million salary cap then re-sign him to whatever contract?

I know you are really active on the Trade Board, so the second scenario is best worked out there. We don't really do a lot of hypothetical roster building scenarios on this board.

Thanks!

Smitty

Thanks! What about just the first question then?

[DoItALL9]

(Dedmon declined his option)