Lebron to Houston?

[Hopper15]

Let's assume Houston can whittle their payroll down to the bare bones while keeping Capela's caphold on the books. That would include dumping Anderson and Nene (maybe Tucker if necessary) while renouncing all of their free agents.

Can CP sign a low one year deal to open a max slot for Lebron and then sign his own max next summer (wink-wink) with bird rights still intact? Sounds like circumventing and dont recall seeing or hearing of this tactic.

[Smitty731]

Let's assume Houston can whittle their payroll down to the bare bones while keeping Capela's caphold on the books. That would include dumping Anderson and Nene (maybe Tucker if necessary) while renouncing all of their free agents.

Can CP sign a low one year deal to open a max slot for Lebron and then sign his own max next summer (wink-wink) with bird rights still intact? Sounds like circumventing and dont recall seeing or hearing of this tactic.

There is nothing to prevent it, but it would involve some fairly difficult to pull of cap gymnastics.

[DoItALL9]

CP3 might bump up against the age 38 rule depending on how long his next deal was set to be.

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[Hopper15]

There is nothing to prevent it, but it would involve some fairly difficult to pull of cap gymnastics.

Yeah. That's what I thought. Bird rights are bird rights. But it is a loophole that can be exploited.

I agree that the gymnastics to even get there seem unlikely. I'm guessing CP got some kind of hush hush assurances last summer regarding money going forward.

[Hopper15]

CP3 might bump up against the age 38 rule depending on how long his next deal was set to be.

Right. And he was at the heart of getting it changed from over 35 (?). Which is why I dont think he would take a huge haircut.

[DBoys]

The LeBron-signs-with-Houston thing is such an absurd fantasy, because it requires ALL of the following things, of which NONE are likely:
1 Some team with massive cap room agrees to take Ryan Anderson's massively bloated contract off their hands, and with no salary going back to Houston
2 And Nene too
3 Paul agrees to re-sign with HOU for the room MLE
4 LeBron agrees to take less than max salary. No, finding a way to do all of the above impossibilities still does NOT open up a "max" slot for Lebron.
5 Lebron agrees to go to the West, where his road to the Finals stage is much more unlikely than simply staying in the East with the annual cakewalk there, relatively speaking (and he's all about his legacy)

[JustCame]

The LeBron-signs-with-Houston thing is such an absurd fantasy, because it requires ALL of the following things, of which NONE are likely:
1 Some team with massive cap room agrees to take Ryan Anderson's massively bloated contract off their hands, and with no salary going back to Houston
2 And Nene too
3 Paul agrees to re-sign with HOU for the room MLE
4 LeBron agrees to take less than max salary. No, finding a way to do all of the above impossibilities still does NOT open up a "max" slot for Lebron.
5 Lebron agrees to go to the West, where his road to the Finals stage is much more unlikely than simply staying in the East with the annual cakewalk there, relatively speaking (and he's all about his legacy)

Anderson's contract can be moved with a 1st round pick attached. Nene with a 2nd rounder. Hardly a large price to pay if Lebron is coming. He doesn't have many options. Houston seems like the best one considering they just took Golden State to 7 without him. Where else could he go anyway? Boston? LA if they get George and trade for another star? GS?

[Smitty731]

The LeBron-signs-with-Houston thing is such an absurd fantasy, because it requires ALL of the following things, of which NONE are likely:
1 Some team with massive cap room agrees to take Ryan Anderson's massively bloated contract off their hands, and with no salary going back to Houston
2 And Nene too
3 Paul agrees to re-sign with HOU for the room MLE
4 LeBron agrees to take less than max salary. No, finding a way to do all of the above impossibilities still does NOT open up a "max" slot for Lebron.
5 Lebron agrees to go to the West, where his road to the Finals stage is much more unlikely than simply staying in the East with the annual cakewalk there, relatively speaking (and he's all about his legacy)

Anderson's contract can be moved with a 1st round pick attached. Nene with a 2nd rounder. Hardly a large price to pay if Lebron is coming. He doesn't have many options. Houston seems like the best one considering they just took Golden State to 7 without him. Where else could he go anyway? Boston? LA if they get George and trade for another star? GS?

Anderson is owed over $41M for the next two years. Fully guaranteed. It's going to take more than a one 1st to move him. And it will take more than just a 2nd to move Nene.

[DBoys]

Anderson's contract can be moved with a 1st round pick attached. Nene with a 2nd rounder.

You need to share some of that good stuff you been smokin'.

[The Penguin]

I think it's entirely reasonable. I would have to believe Gordon and Tucker have at least reasonably positive value, Gordon even more so. They would have to dump Anderson / Gordon / Tucker / Nene. But if someone is willing to give up moderately to lightly protected picks for Gordon and Tucker, you are looking at potentially having 4 draft picks (Houston 2019 1st / 2021 1st, pick from Gordon, pick from Tucker) to incentivize someone to eat the remaining time on Anderson / Nene's deals. I think a team like Atlanta sitting on a ton of cap space would absolutely take back 4 draft picks to eat Anderson's deal.

CP3 takes a haircut. Sign Lebron with Capela on his hold. Resign Capela. Ariza takes whatever exception you have left. Frankly I think that or the Lakers along with George / a 3rd "star" Lonzo/Ingram/Deng are dealt for are the most likely destinations for Lebron this offseason. It may have been huge that Houston lost game 7 as it makes for a clean narrative for Lebron, Harden, CP3 to team up to topple GSW.

[DBoys]

As I see it ...
1 "CP3 takes a haircut" ....It would have to be a MAJOR haircut, as in he takes next to nothing. But a year ago he agreed to opt in to his deal with LAC so he could be traded to HOU, with the understanding that he was bypassing a max deal in 2017 and they would take care of him in a year. So now they go back and renege on that deal, and ask him to play for pennies? I can't see it. They'd never survive that in agent dealings ahead. And Lebron would never go to a team that did that to his friend, either.
2 "Ariza takes whatever exception you have left" ....Everyone gets paid but Ariza? That's not likely to be sellable either.
3 "if someone is willing to give up moderately to lightly protected picks for Gordon and Tucker" ...In a cap dump, they get a lottery pick too? Goodness. no way, not for those guys.

If that list of stuff happens and Lebron ends up in HOU this summer, feel free to say I toldja so. But I'm saying right now there's no way those things happen, as they simply aren't normal. And it's not predicated on just one, but a whole series of them.

I can see this happening, however - "a team like Atlanta sitting on a ton of cap space would absolutely take back draft picks to eat a deal" - but the deal would have to be for a player on a reasonable contract they might otherwise have reason to want. IOW, if HOU wanted to offer Tucker and his modest deal PLUS a pick, or Gordon and his medium deal PLUS a pick, then I can see ATL perhaps saying yes. Maybe. (Then again, they might still say no, because they might prefer those minutes being used elsewhere.) But Anderson's monster deal combined with his iffy on-floor value? Nah. In a summer when few have money to spend, ATL should be able to get much better value than RA with their cap room.

[Smitty731]

I've come around that the only way this happens is if LBJ does what CP3 did and opts in. Then it becomes Anderson and probably a S&Ted Capela to Cleveland. Then the Rockets take care of Paul this summer and LBJ next summer and pay a monstrous tax bill.

[Hopper15]

I've come around that the only way this happens is if LBJ does what CP3 did and opts in. Then it becomes Anderson and probably a S&Ted Capela to Cleveland. Then the Rockets take care of Paul this summer and LBJ next summer and pay a monstrous tax bill.

Problem there is a S & T would hard cap Cleveland at tax apron and they'd have to dump salary to even do that deal. Plus Capela would have to agree to it.

If Rox trade Anderson and Gordon, does Cleveland even want to pay a huge tax bill for that team? Doubtful at best. Just too many variables needing solving IMO.

[DBoys]

I've come around that the only way this happens is if LBJ does what CP3 did and opts in. Then it becomes Anderson and probably a S&Ted Capela to Cleveland. Then the Rockets take care of Paul this summer and LBJ next summer and pay a monstrous tax bill.

I agree a trade seems the most doable way from HOU end.

But putting such a trade together has massive obstacles, including ....
1 Gilbert would likely only be interested in a deal that lets him stop paying tax. They're already in repeater penalty mode, and will pay about 50.7M this year in tax. Without the benefit of having a Lebron-led contender to make it easier to swallow, will he keep paying? Seems unlikely.
2 Capela via SNT is the only real asset the Rox would have to offer. (And paying him the max, is he still as desirable?)
3 There would also be base-year accounting with Capela.
4 There would be the hard cap issue for CLE, to get Capela, in a situation in which they would be around 20M over apron at the moment Lebron exercised his option to stay another year.
5 HOU would have lots of salary to HAVE TO send to a 3rd team in the deal, with nothing coming back, aka a salary dump. And as we have just been discussing, that's a problem world of its own in a summer when no one has cap room to sell cheaply, and when those HOU assets to be dumped aren't all that enticing, especially to a rebuilding team.
6 Lebron has to opt in before a deal can be agreed to, and then wait for weeks to let others decide his destination and see what happens. Unlike Paul deal, there's no avenue to an immediate June trade. Does that sound like something Lebron would do? Not to me.

EDIT TO ADD: I see Hopper said some same or similar things while I was typing. I'll leave my post since it's more expansive, but didn't mean to try to step on your points.

[Smitty731]

I agree with you guys. I don't think it happens. Way too many moving pieces. But that is the way it probably does happen, if it does.

As a cap nerd, I want it to happen, just to see how Morey pulls it off!

[The Penguin]

If Lebron goes, I would have to believe the Cavs are shopping Love hard. Previously with Love & Kyrie they could have talked themselves into a potential contender in an East without Lebron, but with Kyrie gone there's no way they make a go at it with just Love. Korver is likely sold too as he might still fetch something reasonable.

I do agree the most likely vehicle for Lebron to Houston is the CP3 opt-in route. I could see the Cavs taking back Anderson / Gordon with 2 1sts and a handful of 2nds. They then turn around and dump Love / Gordon / Korver because there's little reason to keep them. That puts them well under the tax line depending on what they take back and adding ~5 1st round picks.

[FlyingArrow]

I agree a trade seems the most doable way from HOU end.

But putting such a trade together has massive obstacles, including ....
1 Gilbert would likely only be interested in a deal that lets him stop paying tax. They're already in repeater penalty mode, and will pay about 50.7M this year in tax. Without the benefit of having a Lebron-led contender to make it easier to swallow, will he keep paying? Seems unlikely.
2 Capela via SNT is the only real asset the Rox would have to offer. (And paying him the max, is he still as desirable?)
3 There would also be base-year accounting with Capela.
4 There would be the hard cap issue for CLE, to get Capela, in a situation in which they would be around 20M over apron at the moment Lebron exercised his option to stay another year.
5 HOU would have lots of salary to HAVE TO send to a 3rd team in the deal, with nothing coming back, aka a salary dump. And as we have just been discussing, that's a problem world of its own in a summer when no one has cap room to sell cheaply, and when those HOU assets to be dumped aren't all that enticing, especially to a rebuilding team.
6 Lebron has to opt in before a deal can be agreed to, and then wait for weeks to let others decide his destination and see what happens. Unlike Paul deal, there's no avenue to an immediate June trade. Does that sound like something Lebron would do? Not to me.

EDIT TO ADD: I see Hopper said some same or similar things while I was typing. I'll leave my post since it's more expansive, but didn't mean to try to step on your points.

You make it sound like Houston simply can't get LeBron no matter what. Then why is there so much talk about him going there? What is the most realistic scenario?

[DBoys]

You make it sound like Houston simply can't get LeBron no matter what. Then why is there so much talk about him going there?

Wishful thinking abounds, and talk is cheap. Remember the HOU trade for Melo that Morey whispered was "all but done" several times last summer, and supposedly just about to be pushed over the line? Yeah, it was nonsense. It had same massive hurdles and never really actually got close. No team wants that Anderson deal, despite Morey's continuous attempts to sucker some team into taking it off their hands.

What is the most realistic scenario?

IMO...

HOU re-signs CP and Capela and Ariza. They still have Anderson, even though they try to find a way to move him and his cap-killing deal.

Lebron stays in CLE or goes to somewhere like PHI or CHI. (I think LAL is no likelier than 4th on the list, and East vs West will be a bigger factor than people understand.)

[Vae Victus]

Basically it only works like this.

Lebron opts in ala CP3 traded to HOU

HOU trades
Gordon
Tucker
Nene
Onuaku
Zhou Qi
3 Future FRP (First Round Pick)
Some SRP (Second Round Pick)
Cash
Adding up everyone is around 32ish Mil in salary, which comes close enough to trade with Lebron's 35.5m salary

CLE gets
1 FRP
1 SRP?
AND NOTHING ELSE

3rd Party Team
Gordon
FRP
SRP?

4th Party Team
Tucker
Nene
Onuaku
Zhou Qi
FRP
SRP?
Cash to buy out Nene

Ryno is a massive albatross and simply needs too much in trade to get rid of, at least 2 FRP for him. Gordon, Tucker, et al are all way more eminently tradeable.

It's a complicated trade with alot of moving parts. CLE might feel spiteful and want more. 3rd/4th party teams might get cute and demand more or back out. LOTS can go wrong, but the path to HOU for Lebron is there.

HOU then matches whatever offer sheet Capella is offered and voila. CP3 gets maxed.

C - Capella
PF- Ryno
SF- Lebron
SG- Harden
PG- CP3

The bench will literally all be ring chasers and min wage contracts. I think they'll have their MLE or room exception available so that means at least 1 quality reserve.

It's doable, a pain, but doable.

[DBoys]

Interesting. Theoretically it would work without moving Anderson, which is progress. Good work.

Now for the question marks.

Trade doesn't work until July. Getting LBJ to opt in in June, for a deal that might or might not happen in July, seems like might be an issue.

Does Lebron even want HOU?

Those 1st rounders are prob pick 30. Does that move the needle for other teams? Finding either team 3 or 4, much less both of them, to take on that much salary for that little reward, might be a challenge.

Would Harden and LBJ be able to coexist? They both dominate the ball to the extreme. Their games are so opposite. And add CP to the mix, and there aren't enough basketballs to go around, it would seem.

Would HOU owner pay that sort of tax bill? It would be record-setting and massive. Even assuming they wouldn't re-sign Ariza, with all minimum salary players other than LBJ, CP, Harden, Capela, and Anderson, the payroll alone would exceed 155M, and the tax more than 105M on top of that.