synesthesia wrote:can all the players just go play in Europe and China and all those places, or does their union contracts not allow this?
Imagine Euroleague flooded with 400 players. It would be kind of amazing, and we'd get to see interesting combinations of players on the same team. Random combinations like Chris Paul and Dwight Howard on some Greek team. Lebron in China to replace McGrady as their icon.
Sure these elite players would prob have to take 8 million or so, untaxed, instead of their usual 15-23 million, but it's better than nothing.
1. David Stern has said several times now that max NBA contracts will be about $10 million under the new CBA. So there will be no such thing as $15-$23 million contracts for any NBA players anymore.
2. There is absolutely no way that a whole bunch of hundreds of NBA players can just go to Europe. Every single big domestic league, of which the teams that could conceivably pay them come from - all have strict rules about Bosman and non Bosman players.
For example in Spain, a team could sign 2 Americans, in Italy 3 Americans (4 if one of them had an Italian passport like Kobe does), in Turkey 3 Americans I believe, in Russia I believe it is 2 Americans, in Greece it is 3 Americans currently and the league's player union is doing everything it can to change it to just 2 Americans. In Israel is is 5 Americans. In Germany it is also 5 Americans. Israel and Germany would be where most Americans could go, but there would not be that many big contracts from those leagues like Israel and Germany, or even from Italy.
Now if you compare that against the number of clubs that would potentially be interested in giving out big contracts to American NBA players, then the amount of slots available is relatively small. Especially since many teams already have their slots for American players used up with guys that are already under guaranteed contracts.
There is a relatively small number of slots open for American NBA players in Europe. What would be most likely is that a small amount of big name American NBA players would get offers and that many of the European NBA players (the Bosman players) would get offers.
As for the Chinese Basketball Association, typically Chinese teams sign 1 or 2 Americans and the contracts are not that big, being comparatively much smaller than contracts in the Euroleague are. For example, Greece is probably the best bet these days for American players, as Greek clubs can currently sign 3 Americans and more than that if some of them have European passports and since they provide a domestic league that is competitive, unlike say Italy, Israel, or Germany, where a lot of Americans currently play under weak competition. Almost all of the Greek clubs, even most of the poor ones, have 3 American players and most of them include NBA draft picks and former NBA players.
But besides the big clubs, most of those Greek contracts going to Americans that came from the NBA are something like $100,000 net income to $150,000 net income. So figure like roughly about a $200,000 to $300,000 NBA contract. It would certainly be an enticement for some NBA players that have financial problems from spending too much money and having too many bills, but again, the amount of these contracts that are available is limited.
In Israel and Germany there are potentially lots of slots available to American players at what would amount to the same as about $300,000 to $500,000 in the NBA - the problem is that most of those clubs already have players signed under contract to those spots in those leagues so the places that are actually available are a lot less than it seems.
The most likely thing to happen would be some big name NBA players like LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Howard, Bosh, Paul - players like that getting signed, along with most of the European NBA players (the Bosman guys that have EU passports), guys like Okur, Hedo, Manu, Dirk, Scola, Calderon, Parker........
The typical, average American NBA player would be fighting for those leftover American slots in Greece, Spain, Russia, Italy, Turkey, Germany, Israel, China and there would not be close to enough places available to accommodate 400 plus something NBA players IMHO. The Adriatic clubs are another option, but most of them don't pay any salaries and most of them have huge debts, so NBA players could sign with some of those clubs, but it would not make any sense if it was because they had bills to pay.