Re: Jimmy Butler Prefers Trade From Heat By Deadline

[RealGM Wiretap]

Jimmy Butler prefers a trade from the Miami Heat by the Feb. 6 trade deadline, sources tell Shams Charania of ESPN. Butler, however, hasn't requested a trade from the Heat at this point but is ready for his exit.

Butler has $49 million on his contract with the Heat for this season and a $52 million player option for 2025-26 after the two sides failed to reach an extension last summer. 

Teams have been informed that Butler intends to decline his 2025-26 player option and become a free agent in July. Butler is open to trade destinations such as the Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets.

The Heat have shown no urgency when engaging in trade talks on Butler.

Via Shams Charania/ESPN

[HighRyzer83]

Opt out of 50mil? Bad move. Nobody will pay more than that for a 35 yr old on a decline. He'll be lucky to get 20

[TheCage4]

He needs to guarantee he’ll opt in if he truly wants trade suitors to be enticed.

[YourGM99]

Opt out of 50mil? Bad move. Nobody will pay more than that for a 35 yr old on a decline. He'll be lucky to get 20

Opting out of $50M at 35 and taking $33M a year for 3 years is better than opting in and hitting free agency at 36 when you will be turning 37 before the season starts. The $33M a year puts him at James Harden currently salary range. He’s really looking for a fool to give him an extension now and that’s not Pat which is why he hasn’t been extended yet.

[HighRyzer83]

Opt out of 50mil? Bad move. Nobody will pay more than that for a 35 yr old on a decline. He'll be lucky to get 20

Opting out of $50M at 35 and taking $33M a year for 3 years is better than opting in and hitting free agency at 36 when you will be turning 37 before the season starts. The $33M a year puts him at James Harden currently salary range. He’s really looking for a fool to give him an extension now and that’s not Pat which is why he hasn’t been extended yet.

Why would anyone give him 33 over 3?

[alienpick]

Opt out of 50mil? Bad move. Nobody will pay more than that for a 35 yr old on a decline. He'll be lucky to get 20

Opting out of $50M at 35 and taking $33M a year for 3 years is better than opting in and hitting free agency at 36 when you will be turning 37 before the season starts. The $33M a year puts him at James Harden currently salary range. He’s really looking for a fool to give him an extension now and that’s not Pat which is why he hasn’t been extended yet.

Why would anyone give him 33 over 3?

Even $22 over 3 puts him ahead money-wise.

[winforlose]

Opting out of $50M at 35 and taking $33M a year for 3 years is better than opting in and hitting free agency at 36 when you will be turning 37 before the season starts. The $33M a year puts him at James Harden currently salary range. He’s really looking for a fool to give him an extension now and that’s not Pat which is why he hasn’t been extended yet.

Why would anyone give him 33 over 3?

Even $22 over 3 puts him ahead money-wise.

Giving back 50 to make 66 means he is only worth 8 a year. Giving back 50 to make 100 means he is only worth 25 per year each of the other 2 years. I don’t know how he sees himself, or how teams value him. But, any deal is subject to the rule of 38 and he will want to be seen and paid as a top player, (even though he won’t be.)

[beefymajesto]

Opt out of 50mil? Bad move. Nobody will pay more than that for a 35 yr old on a decline. He'll be lucky to get 20

Opting out of $50M at 35 and taking $33M a year for 3 years is better than opting in and hitting free agency at 36 when you will be turning 37 before the season starts. The $33M a year puts him at James Harden currently salary range. He’s really looking for a fool to give him an extension now and that’s not Pat which is why he hasn’t been extended yet.

Why would anyone give him 33 over 3?

He'll get something around there for sure, max players are starting to hit 70 a year, for Jimmy in the playoffs a team will pay.

[puja21]

Opting out of $50M at 35 and taking $33M a year for 3 years is better than opting in and hitting free agency at 36 when you will be turning 37 before the season starts. The $33M a year puts him at James Harden currently salary range. He’s really looking for a fool to give him an extension now and that’s not Pat which is why he hasn’t been extended yet.

Why would anyone give him 33 over 3?

Even $22 over 3 puts him ahead money-wise.

This is very likely (very) wrong

For 3y 22M to "put him ahead money-wise," Butler's salary would have average less than $7M per season in 26/27 and 27/28 (age 36 and age 37 seasons)

Opt in and 2y 14M in July 2026:
52.4M + 7M + 7M = 66.4M

Opt out and 3y 22M:
22M + 22M + 22M = 66M <-- 400K worse


For reference, the standard MLE is projected at 15M for 26/27, but even the "Room MLE" is almost 10M

Butler could command more than 20M summer 2026 even at age 36 -- even if it's 1y 20M, he's already ahead of your 3y 22M by 6.4M and still gets another bite at the apple in 2027.

Before the new media deal:

Tobias Harris just got 2y 52M

Bojan Bogdanovic got 2y 40M at age 33, coming off just having missed the final month of the previou regular season with injury.

^Both of these players -- even 3+ years younger -- were significantly worse than age 35 Butler (esp defensively)

Random guys who make 20M+ per year (and some of whom miss a lot of time with injury): John Collins, Bruce Brown, KCP, Brogdon, Capela, Jonathan Isaac, Lonzo, Brook Lopez

[puja21]

Opt out of 50mil? Bad move. Nobody will pay more than that for a 35 yr old on a decline. He'll be lucky to get 20

Opting out of $50M at 35 and taking $33M a year for 3 years is better than opting in and hitting free agency at 36 when you will be turning 37 before the season starts. The $33M a year puts him at James Harden currently salary range. He’s really looking for a fool to give him an extension now and that’s not Pat which is why he hasn’t been extended yet.

Ironically, you made the opposite case here.

Harden is the perfect example why this is a terrible financial decision

Weeks before his 33rd birthday (2022):
-Harden opted out of 47.4M in June 2022 (supposedly to leave cap space for his friends PJ Tucker and Danuel House Jr.)
-Then signed a 1+1 totaling 68.68M for ages 33 and 34

Weeks before his 34th birthday (2023):
-Opted into that 2nd year (35.68M) and forced a trade to a preferred destination in summer 2023.
-So he netted 21.28M but lost a free agency chance to sign for more than 21.28M at age 33 (in July 2023)

Weeks before his 35th birthday (2024):
Signed 2 more(!) years at 70M (July 9 2024) <-- this is the contract that closed the loop

So we now know -- with the perfect certainty of hindsight -- that Harden *could have* gotten 35M in July 2023 (because he actually did get that amount in 2023 ... and then got it *again* for a 2nd and 3rd year, when even older in 2024)

Therefore we also now know with certainty that Harden lost about 14M (that he can never recoup) as a direct result of opting out of 47M in June '22 (and he may not care, but he did give it up)

He also *may* have lost "a little more" (comparatively) by opting into the 35.68M and then forcing the trade to LA, instead of just opting out and hitting UFA in 2023.

Butler is approaching essentially the same situation as the 47M choice by Harden; it's also a near-zero chance Butler ever make up the gap from this 50M if he opts out.

It may be the best basketball/happiness decision for him, but this is going to be an 8 figure financial loss for him if he doesn't pickup the option.

[alienpick]

Why would anyone give him 33 over 3?

Even $22 over 3 puts him ahead money-wise.

This is very likely (very) wrong

For 3y 22M to "put him ahead money-wise," Butler's salary would have average less than $7M per season in 26/27 and 27/28 (age 36 and age 37 seasons)

Opt in and 2y 14M in July 2026:
52.4M + 7M + 7M = 66.4M

Opt out and 3y 22M:
22M + 22M + 22M = 66M <-- 400K worse


For reference, the standard MLE is projected at 15M for 26/27, but even the "Room MLE" is almost 10M

Butler could command more than 20M summer 2026 even at age 36 -- even if it's 1y 20M, he's already ahead of your 3y 22M by 6.4M and still gets another bite at the apple in 2027.

Before the new media deal:

Tobias Harris just got 2y 52M

Bojan Bogdanovic got 2y 40M at age 33, coming off just having missed the final month of the previou regular season with injury.

^Both of these players -- even 3+ years younger -- were significantly worse than age 35 Butler (esp defensively)

Random guys who make 20M+ per year (and some of whom miss a lot of time with injury): John Collins, Bruce Brown, KCP, Brogdon, Capela, Jonathan Isaac, Lonzo, Brook Lopez

That's some good mathin', but it assumes he's going to get another contract. Sometimes it's better to not take the option and secure more guaranteed money when you are getting old and prospects are looking thin. Don't forget, it's quite possible that he signs for less for more years but never actually plays in that final year or two, or rides the bench like Kawhi. If he's got a contract, then he still gets paid, if he's on the hunt for a contract; he's not. But you are correct that he should at least try and bank more than MLE in that guaranteed money.

[puja21]

Even $22 over 3 puts him ahead money-wise.

This is very likely (very) wrong

For 3y 22M to "put him ahead money-wise," Butler's salary would have average less than $7M per season in 26/27 and 27/28 (age 36 and age 37 seasons)

Opt in and 2y 14M in July 2026:
52.4M + 7M + 7M = 66.4M

Opt out and 3y 22M:
22M + 22M + 22M = 66M <-- 400K worse


For reference, the standard MLE is projected at 15M for 26/27, but even the "Room MLE" is almost 10M

Butler could command more than 20M summer 2026 even at age 36 -- even if it's 1y 20M, he's already ahead of your 3y 22M by 6.4M and still gets another bite at the apple in 2027.

Before the new media deal:

Tobias Harris just got 2y 52M

Bojan Bogdanovic got 2y 40M at age 33, coming off just having missed the final month of the previou regular season with injury.

^Both of these players -- even 3+ years younger -- were significantly worse than age 35 Butler (esp defensively)

Random guys who make 20M+ per year (and some of whom miss a lot of time with injury): John Collins, Bruce Brown, KCP, Brogdon, Capela, Jonathan Isaac, Lonzo, Brook Lopez

That's some good mathin', but it assumes he's going to get another contract. Sometimes it's better to not take the option and secure more guaranteed money when you are getting old and prospects are looking thin. Don't forget, it's quite possible that he signs for less for more years but never actually plays in that final year or two, or rides the bench like Kawhi. If he's got a contract, then he still gets paid, if he's on the hunt for a contract; he's not. But you are correct that he should at least try and bank more than MLE in that guaranteed money.

It's definitely looking worse for Jimmy every passing day. Each press conference seems to push him more toward AI/Marbury "unwanted" territory