Suns 'Frustration Level Is High' After Falling Two Games Under .500

[puja21]

My point that you are trying so hard to miss: Beal is not a max-level player.

Agree, only argued it's reasonable to assume he makes it in the west too.

Beal got paid because he was an AS

Maybe? (It certainly didn't hurt).

Beal is a CJ McCollum level player. That's a good player. CJ had individual and team success in the West and was in the AS conversation but never made it. Rightly so.

Agree with this and they are similar caliber players.

One thing that hasn't been addressed in this comparison (relevant bc I don't think CJ could ever replicate Beal's peak):
CJ has never approached 8 FTA per game like Beal did in both his 30+ ppg seasons

CJ's best (lowest) FG per FTA is 4.86 -- Beal's CAREER average is under 4 (in the 2s for his 30+ years).
CJ's career average is over 6 -- Beal's worst couple seasons (outliers) are at that level.
Said another way: Beale's career FTA per min is (more than) 50% better than McCollum's.

McCollum has a year where he took ONE fewer FGA than Dame (19 vs 20) -- but Dame got to 30 and McCollum was at 23.
There's a good sample size without Lillard too (even in the Portland overlap years it's almost a full 82 game season worth of games)
with or without a true #1 next to him, CJ's FTA never get north of 3 per game.
He doesn't have that element to his offense.

Beal's also been a **little** more efficient (higher highs)
This is Beal's 5th season >48% (has 2 north of 50%) -- CJ has never shot over 48% in 12 seasons.
Another factor: Beal entered the league at 19 and was a 41-42% shooter for 3 years.
McCollum came in with 4 years of college.
From age 22 on Beale is a 48% career shooter vs CJ 45% in the same age range (and with the benefit of having Dame's gravity next to him)

Beal had a 48% FG season averaging 8 FTA and produced 31 ppg.
It also REALLY helped Beal's all NBA case that it was his "second straight season" breaking 30 PPG (and 3rd consec >25 ppg).
^All NBA voting tends to have inertia.
No way CJ is approaching those numbers in Washington even if he added as much as 5 FGAs
(Beal broke 30 with just +3 FGA over CJ)

Yes, Beal's situation helped him make an ASG (like Lavine and others).
It's also fair to say he maxed out his potential situationally and cashed in (and it's a bad contract)

McCollum could probably never hit 30 ppg 1x (maybe 25 in perfect Washinton-esque sitation) but at a lower efficiency than Beal.
And his career data doesn't support it.
He doesn't have the efficiency peaks or the FT rate.

It's not a great comparison for me.

But of course I agree with this:
Neither guy can have a max contract on a good/winning team

[Pickled Prunes]

My point that you are trying so hard to miss: Beal is not a max-level player.

Agree, only argued it's reasonable to assume he makes it in the west too.

Beal got paid because he was an AS

Maybe? (It certainly didn't hurt).

Beal is a CJ McCollum level player. That's a good player. CJ had individual and team success in the West and was in the AS conversation but never made it. Rightly so.

Agree with this and they are similar caliber players.

One thing that hasn't been addressed in this comparison (relevant bc I don't think CJ could ever replicate Beal's peak):
CJ has never approached 8 FTA per game like Beal did in both his 30+ ppg seasons

CJ's best (lowest) FG per FTA is 4.86 -- Beal's CAREER average is under 4 (in the 2s for his 30+ years).
CJ's career average is over 6 -- Beal's worst couple seasons (outliers) are at that level.
Said another way: Beale's career FTA per min is (more than) 50% better than McCollum's.

McCollum has a year where he took ONE fewer FGA than Dame (19 vs 20) -- but Dame got to 30 and McCollum was at 23.
There's a good sample size without Lillard too (even in the Portland overlap years it's almost a full 82 game season worth of games)
with or without a true #1 next to him, CJ's FTA never get north of 3 per game.
He doesn't have that element to his offense.

Beal's also been a **little** more efficient (higher highs)
This is Beal's 5th season >48% (has 2 north of 50%) -- CJ has never shot over 48% in 12 seasons.
Another factor: Beal entered the league at 19 and was a 41-42% shooter for 3 years.
McCollum came in with 4 years of college.

From age 22 on Beale is a 48% career shooter vs CJ 45% in the same age range (and with the benefit of having Dame's gravity next to him)

Beal had a 48% FG season averaging 8 FTA and produced 31 ppg.
It also REALLY helped Beal's all NBA case that it was his "second straight season" breaking 30 PPG (and 3rd consec >25 ppg).
^All NBA voting tends to have inertia.
No way CJ is approaching those numbers in Washington even if he added as much as 5 FGAs
(Beal broke 30 with just +3 FGA over CJ)

Yes, Beal's situation helped him make an ASG (like Lavine and others).
It's also fair to say he maxed out his potential situationally and cashed in (and it's a bad contract)

McCollum could probably never hit 30 ppg 1x (maybe 25 in perfect Washinton-esque sitation) but at a lower efficiency than Beal.
And his career data doesn't support it.
He doesn't have the efficiency peaks or the FT rate.

It's not a great comparison for me.

But of course I agree with this:
Neither guy can have a max contract on a good/winning team

You're right, they aren't a perfect comp, but maybe as close as I've seen. FTA is the biggest statistical difference in their games. But CJ has better handles and craft inside the paint. He's got a whole bag that allows him to avoid contact rather than taking it. I understand how getting to the line helps your efficiency, but it isn't as pretty. It has also allowed him better health and availability.

Dame's gravity was a benefit on one end, but CJ also had to guard the other team's best perimeter player every night. He was burning the candle at both ends covering for Dame. While Beal was averaging 31 PPG, WAS as a team was giving up the most PPG.

I'll trust you on post 22yo shooting but as you mentioned, CJ played four years in college. He was 22 as a rookie. You are removing Beal's three least efficient years and comparing them to CJ's entire career. Not really seeing the relevance in that. College experience is great but not the same thing. Either way, their efficiency is too close to call.

For his career Beal is +.012 TS%. (FTA's)
CJ is +.004 eFG% (3PT%)

This is close enough to attribute to situational differences, not the least of which could be CJ facing staunch WC defenses 3-4 times per year.

Another thing I would point to is CJ's AST/TO. CJ has made fairly steady improvement that area throughout his career while Beal has been essentially flat. AST/TO ratio is one of the best indicators of court awareness and decision making. CJ's career average (2.11) is better than Beal's career best (2.02). His career best (3.43) was ironically Beal's worst (1.42).

Both are fringe AS player in the right situation and neither is a max player in any situation... but I'll take CJ at $33m over Beal at $50m all day and twice on Sunday.

[puja21]

CJ also had to guard the other team's best perimeter player every night. He was burning the candle at both ends covering for Dame. While Beal was averaging 31 PPG, WAS as a team was giving up the most PPG.

I didn't watch Portland's coverages enough to weigh in but I'll take your word and that's a good point

I'll trust you on post 22yo shooting but as you mentioned, CJ played four years in college. He was 22 as a rookie. You are removing Beal's three least efficient years and comparing them to CJ's entire career. Not really seeing the relevance in that. College experience is great but not the same thing. Either way, their efficiency is too close to call.

I don't have any data to support the relevance. Just emotionally/anecdotally my assumption is 3-4 year college players will have better year 1-3 FG% than 18-19 yos. For reasons beyond just college experience -- emotional and physical growth etc

e.g.
1996 Kobe 18-19 = .417 and .428 for 150 games then .466 for next equivalent stretch of games
Versus older guys from the Kobe draft-- Allen, Nash and Delk all shot 39-46 3PT as rookies (Delk's career high in FG% came as a rookie)
2003 Bron 19 to 21 = .417 -> .472 -> .480
2004 Dwight age 19/20 =.520/.531 vs age 21/22 .603/.599
2005 Bynum 18 to 20 = .402 -> .558 ->.636

Would be interesting to learn if it holds water

Another thing I would point to is CJ's AST/TO. CJ has made fairly steady improvement that area throughout his career while Beal has been essentially flat. AST/TO ratio is one of the best indicators of court awareness and decision making. CJ's career average (2.11) is better than Beal's career best (2.02). His career best (3.43) was ironically Beal's worst (1.42).

Agree CJ is a better playmaker

Both are fringe AS player in the right situation and neither is a max player in any situation... but I'll take CJ at $33m over Beal at $50m all day and twice on Sunday.

100% agree

[Pickled Prunes]

CJ also had to guard the other team's best perimeter player every night. He was burning the candle at both ends covering for Dame. While Beal was averaging 31 PPG, WAS as a team was giving up the most PPG.

I didn't watch Portland's coverages enough to weigh in but I'll take your word and that's a good point

I'll trust you on post 22yo shooting but as you mentioned, CJ played four years in college. He was 22 as a rookie. You are removing Beal's three least efficient years and comparing them to CJ's entire career. Not really seeing the relevance in that. College experience is great but not the same thing. Either way, their efficiency is too close to call.

I don't have any data to support the relevance. Just emotionally/anecdotally my assumption is 3-4 year college players will have better year 1-3 FG% than 18-19 yos. For reasons beyond just college experience -- emotional and physical growth etc

e.g.
1996 Kobe 18-19 = .417 and .428 for 150 games then .466 for next equivalent stretch of games
Versus older guys from the Kobe draft-- Allen, Nash and Delk all shot 39-46 3PT as rookies (Delk's career high in FG% came as a rookie)
2003 Bron 19 to 21 = .417 -> .472 -> .480
2004 Dwight age 19/20 =.520/.531 vs age 21/22 .603/.599
2005 Bynum 18 to 20 = .402 -> .558 ->.636

Would be interesting to learn if it holds water

Another thing I would point to is CJ's AST/TO. CJ has made fairly steady improvement that area throughout his career while Beal has been essentially flat. AST/TO ratio is one of the best indicators of court awareness and decision making. CJ's career average (2.11) is better than Beal's career best (2.02). His career best (3.43) was ironically Beal's worst (1.42).

Agree CJ is a better playmaker

Both are fringe AS player in the right situation and neither is a max player in any situation... but I'll take CJ at $33m over Beal at $50m all day and twice on Sunday.

100% agree

It's hard to compare either of these guys to players of that caliber. I guess CJ's best comp in that group would be (poor man) Nash. Crafty, undersized and not very athletic. Nash got his first MVP at 31 and had his first 50/40/90 season at 33. Both are cerebral players that continue to get better by studying the game rather than working out. (Nash's summer workouts included running 5 miles, playing soccer and riding his skateboard around town.) I don't think either player makes the NBA at 18 or sticks around if they do. They weren't physically ready. Like Nash, CJ didn't start or even play significant minutes until his 3rd season. Nash shot 36% overall in his 3rd season, after being traded to DAL as their starting PG.