Pickled Prunes wrote:og15 wrote:Pickled Prunes wrote:This is so effing stupid. Beal is overpaid, but he averaged 18/4/4 on 50% shooting for the Suns. If he won't waive his no trade, make him play and earn his pay... and he'll be off your books in two years instead of five. Why prolong the pain when you aren't remotely ready to win now?
Have to take into account the 2nd apron and the additional restrictions those bring.
First apron:
Sign-and-trades are not permitted if the player acquired keeps the team above the apron.
Cannot sign players who were waived during the regular season if their salary is above the mid-level exception.
Salary matching in trades has to be within 110% instead of the 125% teams in good standing get.
Second apron:
Includes all first-apron penalties
Cannot have access to the MLE in free agency or absorbing contracts.
Cannot trade first-round picks from seven years out.
Cannot use trade exceptions from previous years.
Cannot use cash in trades.
First round pick moves straight to the end of the first round if the team stays in the second apron for three of five years.
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Teams don't want to constantly have those restrictions, teams don't want to have that 3/5 years situation, and definitely don't want to waste a 2nd apron season on a non contending roster.
Yep, I get all that... but this is talking about trying to remove handcuffs for two years and replacing them with an ankle weight for five years. This isn't Lillard with a torn Achilles; this is a player that could be giving them 20/5/5 under a new coach, a new system and a few extra shots after the KD departure. It's sheer incompetence!
If the Suns are a 2nd apron team two more times between 25-26 and 28-29, their 2032 pick is automatically 30th. They also won't really be able to trade that pick for value if they theoretically wanted to because teams would see it as a 2nd round pick.
If you want, you can add that the Suns have absolutely no guarantee that they will not be a lottery team for the 2032 draft, and imagine being a lottery team and having the 30th pick. It could be higher if there are other 3/5 years 2nd apron teams that year, but it would still be bottom of the draft.
Beal's box score slash production is nice looking, but his impact is not impressive. Keeping Beal is not worth being a multiple year 2nd Apron team. Now, of course they could move other players to get below, though their options are limited as their aren't many teams looking to just take salaries like Allen or Royce for cap space without draft capital, which the Suns wouldn't (shouldn't) do.
If Beal isn't willing to waive his NTC, then his production and impact is not worth being a 2nd apron team for multiple seasons with all the restrictions and penalties that it comes with.
They do have to gauge the impact of the stretch vs the impact of the 2nd apron. With 2nd apron they simply can't improve as it is hard to do so with no MLE, not using exceptions, can't take back more in trades, can't aggregate salaries.
On the other hand, stretching him allows them to actually construct the roster, they go below luxury tax, have MLE, no trade restrictions, but they now have the salary spread out longer, and it's not like they can be a contender right now.
The real goal is getting out of the apron, Beal is not worth the multiple apron penalties, but if there's another way to get below apron the next two seasons, it's better to just eat his salary for two more seasons. They could also wait out one more year, then waive the last year without stretch.