Exec Predicts Khris Middleton To Get $15M Per Season

[RealGM Wiretap]

Khris Middleton will be one of the NBA's most highly coveted restricted free agent.

Middleton put up a great season and is well-liked by advanced analytics.

One executive predicts Middleton to receive an offer of $15 million per season.

“That’s what Chandler Parsons got, but this guy plays much better defense,” the executive said.

Middleton is a good perimeter shooter and he can defend multiple positions at a high level.

 

Via Sean Deveney/Sporting News

[Revived]

He should get the max especially with the cap going up. $15M is close to max anyway.

[deeps6x]

From the Raptors

[jlokine]

From the Raptors

if only... the raptors are never mentioned in any rumoured significant signings

[inquisitive]

a great 2 way player from texas a&m

[WhatsaTDot]

♫ "I'm on a highway to mediocrity!"♫

[Rated T By CBRA]

Good for this dude, he really did blossom after having a hard time playing with Parker. And nice story to come out of Milwuakee after their disappointment with Larry Sanders

[God Squad]

Agreed. Middleton always puts up quietly good numbers. While guarding the 2,3,4.

[fahdre]

Love this guy and could be successfull on almost any team...but 15 mil ? I don't know about that one.

[Jeff Van Gully]

he's shown himself to be worth every penny. charleston, stand up.

[12footrim]

he's shown himself to be worth every penny. charleston, stand up.

He had a 12.0 PER in the playoffs and 15.0 PER in the regular season. That's one million for every PER point which in sum equals an average player. He's a completely average statistical player. Just because some sorry team overpaid for Parsons doesn't mean he should get it.

[ontnut]

From the Raptors

if only... the raptors are never mentioned in any rumoured significant signings

Steve Nash!
Hedo Turkoglu!
(oh god...)

[ontnut]

he's shown himself to be worth every penny. charleston, stand up.

He had a 12.0 PER in the playoffs and 15.0 PER in the regular season. That's one million for every PER point which in sum equals an average player. He's a completely average statistical player. Just because some sorry team overpaid for Parsons doesn't mean he should get it.

PER can be flawed especially when looking at players who are strong defenders primarily.
He's basically pulling Demar Derozan type numbers on offense, but with a very good 3 pt shot (over 40% career) and he hits FT's at a very high clip, even if he doesn't take many. His Drtg is better than any DD ever put up. He also moves the ball more than DD, more steals, and fewer TO's. So if Derozan got 9-10mil, and was considered underpaid by the middle of his contract, and the cap is going up massively, it's not inconceivable that Middleton is worth ~15million moving forward. The game isn't played on stat sheets - and the eye test has also shown that he would be a valuable member of almost any team as a glue guy.

Edit: If you compare him to Jimmy Butler's stats too - you'll see they were very very similar players, until Jimmy broke out this year at age 25. Khris is 23 and a better shooter. So...yeah.

[Jeff Van Gully]

he's shown himself to be worth every penny. charleston, stand up.

He had a 12.0 PER in the playoffs and 15.0 PER in the regular season. That's one million for every PER point which in sum equals an average player. He's a completely average statistical player. Just because some sorry team overpaid for Parsons doesn't mean he should get it.

PER can be flawed especially when looking at players who are strong defenders primarily.
He's basically pulling Demar Derozan type numbers on offense, but with a very good 3 pt shot (over 40% career) and he hits FT's at a very high clip, even if he doesn't take many. His Drtg is better than any DD ever put up. He also moves the ball more than DD, more steals, and fewer TO's. So if Derozan got 9-10mil, and was considered underpaid by the middle of his contract, and the cap is going up massively, it's not inconceivable that Middleton is worth ~15million moving forward. The game isn't played on stat sheets - and the eye test has also shown that he would be a valuable member of almost any team as a glue guy.

Edit: If you compare him to Jimmy Butler's stats too - you'll see they were very very similar players, until Jimmy broke out this year at age 25. Khris is 23 and a better shooter. So...yeah.

don't know what happened to my response, but you pretty much nailed it.

that and, the RFA game is high-stakes poker. you have to blindly outbid for the players you want. favors the players, but it's fair. it definitely creates some situations where players are overpaid. but that's the gamble some teams are willing to take.

i'd want to start middleton at around $10m. but if i think the bucks will match that, i then have to ask myself how much i want middleton. if i really want him, i've got to go all in and hope the bucks fold. if not, at least we made them pay top dollar when middleton signed my offer sheet.

[ontnut]

He had a 12.0 PER in the playoffs and 15.0 PER in the regular season. That's one million for every PER point which in sum equals an average player. He's a completely average statistical player. Just because some sorry team overpaid for Parsons doesn't mean he should get it.

PER can be flawed especially when looking at players who are strong defenders primarily.
He's basically pulling Demar Derozan type numbers on offense, but with a very good 3 pt shot (over 40% career) and he hits FT's at a very high clip, even if he doesn't take many. His Drtg is better than any DD ever put up. He also moves the ball more than DD, more steals, and fewer TO's. So if Derozan got 9-10mil, and was considered underpaid by the middle of his contract, and the cap is going up massively, it's not inconceivable that Middleton is worth ~15million moving forward. The game isn't played on stat sheets - and the eye test has also shown that he would be a valuable member of almost any team as a glue guy.

Edit: If you compare him to Jimmy Butler's stats too - you'll see they were very very similar players, until Jimmy broke out this year at age 25. Khris is 23 and a better shooter. So...yeah.

don't know what happened to my response, but you pretty much nailed it.

that and, the RFA game is high-stakes poker. you have to blindly outbid for the players you want. favors the players, but it's fair. it definitely creates some situations where players are overpaid. but that's the gamble some teams are willing to take.

i'd want to start middleton at around $10m. but if i think the bucks will match that, i then have to ask myself how much i want middleton. if i really want him, i've got to go all in and hope the bucks fold. if not, at least we made them pay top dollar when middleton signed my offer sheet.

Yep. You can't sign an offer sheet for exactly what everybody else thinks he's worth, because then you're not going to get him (ie you're going to get called on your pot sized bet). If you really want a RFA, you gotta overpay almost all of the time (ie go all-in for 3x the pot and hope for the fold).

[Jeff Van Gully]

PER can be flawed especially when looking at players who are strong defenders primarily.
He's basically pulling Demar Derozan type numbers on offense, but with a very good 3 pt shot (over 40% career) and he hits FT's at a very high clip, even if he doesn't take many. His Drtg is better than any DD ever put up. He also moves the ball more than DD, more steals, and fewer TO's. So if Derozan got 9-10mil, and was considered underpaid by the middle of his contract, and the cap is going up massively, it's not inconceivable that Middleton is worth ~15million moving forward. The game isn't played on stat sheets - and the eye test has also shown that he would be a valuable member of almost any team as a glue guy.

Edit: If you compare him to Jimmy Butler's stats too - you'll see they were very very similar players, until Jimmy broke out this year at age 25. Khris is 23 and a better shooter. So...yeah.

don't know what happened to my response, but you pretty much nailed it.

that and, the RFA game is high-stakes poker. you have to blindly outbid for the players you want. favors the players, but it's fair. it definitely creates some situations where players are overpaid. but that's the gamble some teams are willing to take.

i'd want to start middleton at around $10m. but if i think the bucks will match that, i then have to ask myself how much i want middleton. if i really want him, i've got to go all in and hope the bucks fold. if not, at least we made them pay top dollar when middleton signed my offer sheet.

Yep. You can't sign an offer sheet for exactly what everybody else thinks he's worth, because then you're not going to get him (ie you're going to get called on your pot sized bet). If you really want a RFA, you gotta overpay almost all of the time (ie go all-in for 3x the pot and hope for the fold).

also, no agent is going to let their RFA sign the pot-sized offer sheet unless it's the best offer available or the FA really only wants to play there. sometimes a team will let a player go instead of retain a possible malcontent. middleton is too high-character to be that way though. i think he'll be a pro for whatever team will pay him.

12 months ago he was approximately a league minimum player hoping for an opportunity. he has a chance at financial stability right now. he's gotta take it, even if the kings are the only team to max him.

[12footrim]

PER can be flawed especially when looking at players who are strong defenders primarily.

Not that flawed. There is a reason the top 100 list all time is a who's who list of hall of famer and future hall of famers.

Even if you only want to view it as an offensive tool, (even though it includes steals, blocks, fouls etc) he's still completely average offensively so why would you want to spend 15 million on him. Hell Tony Allen is maybe the best wing defender and makes like 5 million. Even if Middleton was the best defender in the league is he worth 3 times that?

He's basically pulling Demar Derozan type numbers on offense, but with a very good 3 pt shot (over 40% career) and he hits FT's at a very high clip, even if he doesn't take many. His Drtg is better than any DD ever put up. He also moves the ball more than DD, more steals, and fewer TO's. So if Derozan got 9-10mil, and was considered underpaid by the middle of his contract, and the cap is going up massively,

Derozan got 10 million and I think that's about his worth, and Middleton isn't quite as good as even he is on offense but you are going to pay him a 3rd more?

Edit: If you compare him to Jimmy Butler's stats too - you'll see they were very very similar players, until Jimmy broke out this year at age 25. Khris is 23 and a better shooter. So...yeah.

and no one was talking about giving him Max money before the year. Smart NBA people were saying 10 to 12 million. Zach Lowe even said he had a preseason bet with a exec on if he would be over 10 million. He's also the most improved player and one of the most improved in recent memory. That's pretty rare to make a jump like that. Certainly can't count on it.

He had a 21.3 PER this year and now everyone wants to max him, imagine that and he's probably going to be underpaid. With him you are even making the point about PER being legit and telling the story on his career arch, perceived value etc. You can't have a 21.3 PER and not legitimately be putting up great production per minute.

[ontnut]

PER can be flawed especially when looking at players who are strong defenders primarily.

Not that flawed. There is a reason the top 100 list all time is a who's who list of hall of famer and future hall of famers.

Even if you only want to view it as an offensive tool, (even though it includes steals, blocks, fouls etc) he's still completely average offensively so why would you want to spend 15 million on him. Hell Tony Allen is maybe the best wing defender and makes like 5 million. Even if Middleton was the best defender in the league is he worth 3 times that?

He's basically pulling Demar Derozan type numbers on offense, but with a very good 3 pt shot (over 40% career) and he hits FT's at a very high clip, even if he doesn't take many. His Drtg is better than any DD ever put up. He also moves the ball more than DD, more steals, and fewer TO's. So if Derozan got 9-10mil, and was considered underpaid by the middle of his contract, and the cap is going up massively,

Derozan got 10 million and I think that's about his worth, and Middleton isn't quite as good as even he is on offense but you are going to pay him a 3rd more?

Edit: If you compare him to Jimmy Butler's stats too - you'll see they were very very similar players, until Jimmy broke out this year at age 25. Khris is 23 and a better shooter. So...yeah.

and no one was talking about giving him Max money before the year. Smart NBA people were saying 10 to 12 million. Zach Lowe even said he had a preseason bet with a exec on if he would be over 10 million. He's also the most improved player and one of the most improved in recent memory. That's pretty rare to make a jump like that. Certainly can't count on it.

He had a 21.3 PER this year and now everyone wants to max him, imagine that and he's probably going to be underpaid. With him you are even making the point about PER being legit and telling the story on his career arch, perceived value etc. You can't have a 21.3 PER and not legitimately be putting up great production per minute.

While I see what you're trying to say, understand that it's not foolproof logic. Just because many of the great players had high PERs, doesn't mean that you must have a high PER to be a great player - that's a fallacy first off. And I don't think the idea is to have Khris be a focal point of the offense as the main scorer, but as a high level glue guy. Given that the new caps will allow for multiple $15 million salaries, I don't see any issue in doling out one now to keep a big piece. Him, Parker, Giannis would be a very nice, big, long, trio to have come up together. He doesn't have to score nearly as much with those guys on his team.

Secondly, if you're just comparing PER to PER as a measurement of a player's value, then you are saying you'd rather have George Hill (21.52 PER) compared to John Wall (19.92 PER) or Kyle Lowry (19.33 PER) or Bledsoe (18.47 PER). Brook Lopez had the 12th highest PER in the league this year and Brooklyn doesn't even really want him back, and I don't think anyone considers him the 12th best player in the league. There are certainly flaws in PER as a sole judge of a player's worth. Greg Monroe has a 21.26 PER and Detroit was trying to find a way to trade him for years. Ed Davis had a 20 PER. Same with Shabazz Muhammad. Are those guys all-star level players deserving of the same contract as Bosh or Jefferson or Milsap?

Allen's contract I believe was signed before the news of the cap going up drastically was released - so if everyone's contract is going up by huge amounts - that's comparing apples to oranges. Also, Khris is 3 inches taller at 6'7" with 6'11" wingspan, meaning he can effectively guard 2, 3 and 4 - whereas Allen is only guarding 1s, 2s and some small 3s. Khris is also 23 years old, Allen is 33 years old. Khris had a DWS of 3.5 this year - that would be the second highest total for Allen's entire career. So yes, I would pay at least double for a bigger guy entering his prime than a guy about to retire in a couple years. That's pretty standard.

Derozan is worth more than $10 mil, and you will see that based on his next contract I'm sure. Everyone has been saying he's underpaid at $10 mil compared to the rest of the league salaries. Remember - cap going up big time year after year, so salaries willl too - what is considered overpaid now will be normal by next year or the following. Middleton I find, can be as good if not better than Derozan based solely on his ability to shoot the 3, all else being equal. That's pretty important nowadays. Defensively, I would also think that Khris is better than DD so, yes, I would pay him more than Derozan's current contract. In the end, I expect they will have similar type contracts within a few mil of each other.

Yes, it is impossible to predict a breakout - but Khris was supposed to be a lottery pick before he went back for a season and got injured. It's not like his trajectory wasn't pointed high to begin with. He was supposed to be good. Butler looked like a defensive specialist until he really broke out on offense. Same idea with Khris. I don't think it's really that unlikely he makes the jump next year, especially with Parker back in the lineup and another year of development physically and as a team.

I never said PER was not legit...when did I say that? I said it was flawed...ie...imperfect. Yes I understand that Anthony Davis is very good, and his PER shows that. But I can see that independently of his PER, just by watching the guy and judging his worth to his team. Its a judgment made independently of PER, but confirmed by it. If you told me his PER was 20, I'd still consider him a top 5 player in the league, know what I mean?

[12footrim]

While I see what you're trying to say, understand that it's not foolproof logic. Just because many of the great players had high PERs, doesn't mean that you must have a high PER to be a great player - that's a fallacy first off.

So name all the truely great players with 15.0 PER's seasons of "greatness".

Secondly, if you're just comparing PER to PER as a measurement of a player's value, then you are saying you'd rather have George Hill (21.52 PER) compared to John Wall (19.92 PER) or Kyle Lowry (19.33 PER) or Bledsoe (18.47 PER).

Per minute absolutely. You should be smart enough to parse the players like Ed Davis playing 20 minutes from those playing 35 first and formost. Hill had a great half season. Look at his effective FG or true shooting compared. Just to Wall it was far higher and his per 36's were 20/6/5 on 57% true shooting. It was a great partial season just like Ed Davis was GREAT when his coach actually put him on the court.

Brook Lopez had the 12th highest PER in the league this year and Brooklyn doesn't even really want him back, and I don't think anyone considers him the 12th best player in the league.

he was one of the hotest players down the stretch by far. Everyone knows he can produce when on the court. The question with him is ALWAYS health. If not he's a top 3 or so player at the leanest position and certainly a max player if healthy. Tha't's always his key not his talent. Especially not at a position of great need.

There are certainly flaws in PER as a sole judge of a player's worth.

mabye, but none that you pointed out. It's still the best single metric IMO. top 100 list of who's who hall of famers agree.

[ontnut]

So name all the truely great players with 15.0 PER's seasons of "greatness".

OK first of all, nobody's calling Middleton a HOF player, nor even an all-star at this point. But we're saying he's WORTH the money, given what the cap will look like. The percentage of the cap his contract will take up, averaged over the length of the contract, will be a percentage you can live with, even at max money. Meaning he can still be ther 3rd, or even 4th best player on your team, with a max contract, and you'll still be fine. The cap will go up to ~67 mil, then ~89 mil, then ~108 mil in the next 3 years. That's 20 mil extra per year. If they Max Khris now at $15, and Max both Giannis and Jabari at the assumed 108 mil salary cap (27 mil each!!) in 2017/2018 (assuming cap stays at 108mil in 2018), that means they maxed Khris at nearly half the yearly value of those two players! Even if they go this route, that's only 69 million commited to those 3 maxed players, meaning they have an additional ~40 million to round out the roster, without going into luxury tax. That shouldn't be too hard to fill out a roster, especially given that they will still have rookie level deals on contract. By the time he's in the 3rd year of this potential max contract, it'll only be 15/108 = 14% of the cap. That would translate to just under a $9 million contract given today's cap. If you don't think he's worth a relative $9 million contract in today's NBA, then I'm sorry, but you're wrong. I'm guessing, over the life of the contract, the relative, pro-rated value of this max deal would only be in the 10-11 mil range, assuming the cap goes to and stays at 108 mil into the 4th/5th year of the deal.

Hollinger admits: "PER largely measures offensive performance. Hollinger freely admits that two of the defensive statistics it incorporates—blocks and steals (which was not tracked as an official stat until 1973)—can produce a distorted picture of a player's value and that PER is not a reliable measure of a player's defensive acumen. For example, Bruce Bowen, widely regarded as one of the best defenders in the NBA (at least through the 2006–07 season), has routinely posted single-digit PERs.

"Bear in mind that this rating is not the final, once-and-for-all answer for a player's accomplishments during the season. This is especially true for players such as Bruce Bowen and Trenton Hassell who are defensive specialists but don't get many blocks or steals.""


But yes, there are all-star and HOF level players with season(s), or even career PER's under 20, with seasons in the 15 range. Keep in mind, Middleton was younger in this season, than many of these guys were in their rookie years.

Reggie Miller: HOF. Career 18.4, First 2 seasons 14.0, 15.7, then into the 21 range, then dipped to 17.6 in the 5th year.
Dennis Rodman: HOF. Multiple champion. Career PER of 14.6. Multiple seasons in the 13 range during his prime.
Ben Wallace: One of the best defenders of a generation. DPOY, Champion. Career PER 15.5, crossing into the 18's only once.
Gary Payton: HOF. One of the best PG's of all time, one of the best PG defenders ever. First 2 seasons had PER in the 13's, then 17.
Jamaal Wilkes: HOF. Career PER of 16.5, highest of 18.0
Gus Johnson: HOF. Career PER of 16.7.
Gail Goodrich: HOF. Career PER of 16.7. Multiple seasons in the 14 and 15's, including his rookie season below 12.
Lenny Wilkens: HOF. Career PER of 16.8. Didn't exceed a PER of 16 until he was 30, in his 8th season.
Dave Cowens: HOF. Career PER of 17. Never exceeded 20.
Dikembe Mutumbo: HOF. One of THE BEST defensive players of all time. Averaged 10/10/3blk career, Career PER 17.2. In the three years he averaged 11/12/4 blk on 50% shooting, his PER was 17, but had DWS in the 4-5 ranges during this time.
Nate Thurmond: HOF. Averaged 20/18/3ast/3blk for a lot of his career (15/15/3/2blk career average even after a few weak seasons at the end of his career), PER never exceed 20, averaging 16.5 for the career, with several seasons of 15 or less at the beginning and end of his career.
Mike Mitchell: Averaged 20pt 5.5reb over a 10 year caeer, 49+% fg, 32mpg, Career PER 16.7, with several seasons in the 15's.
Mo Cheeks: 11/3/7/2stl on the career, 52% fg, All-star, NBA champion, exceeded PER of 20 only twice, 16.6 career average with seasons in the 15's.
Sidney Moncrief: Multiple DPOY winner, still had seasons in the 15 PER range, at the beginning and end of his career.
Bruce Bowen: Career PER of 8. 3 time champion playing 30+mpg.

Ok so there's a few examples. Players in the HOF, with low Career PER's, including low PER's during their prime years. NOW will you admit that PER isn't 100% foolproof, and that yes, there are indeed scenarios where a player, especialy a good defensive player, can have their abilities and worth overlooked by a single metric such as PER, which focuses largely on the offensive side of the game?