Exec Predicts Khris Middleton To Get $15M Per Season

[12footrim]

Hollinger admits: "PER largely measures offensive performance. Hollinger freely admits that two of the defensive statistics it incorporates—blocks and steals (which was not tracked as an official stat until 1973)—can produce a distorted picture of a player's value and that PER is not a reliable measure of a player's defensive acumen. For example, Bruce Bowen, widely regarded as one of the best defenders in the NBA (at least through the 2006–07 season), has routinely posted single-digit PERs.

His defensive ratings were worse than the OVERALL team defensive ratings even while with the Spurs. They were worse even on defense when he was on the court. That's all that really needs to be said about the myth of Bowen. He was cut by multiple teams, and overrated product of a spurs system and playing in front of Tim Duncan even as defense goes IMO. His other stats and part of his game are freaking horrid as well.

BTW I've read where you copied that article from 5 years ago and I laugh anytime anyone tries to use him as an example of why PER isn't a solid metric. You put Bowen on about any other team and he would have been cut. Just happened to fit a certain role on a good team and have a coach that believed in him even if the numbers said otherwise and some dumb ass media that gave him awards Duncan drove.

Reggie Miller: HOF. Career 18.4, First 2 seasons 14.0, 15.7, then into the 21 range, then dipped to 17.6 in the 5th year.
Dennis Rodman: HOF. Multiple champion. Career PER of 14.6. Multiple seasons in the 13 range during his prime.
Ben Wallace: One of the best defenders of a generation. DPOY, Champion. Career PER 15.5, crossing into the 18's only once.
Gary Payton: HOF. One of the best PG's of all time, one of the best PG defenders ever. First 2 seasons had PER in the 13's, then 17.
Jamaal Wilkes: HOF. Career PER of 16.5, highest of 18.0
Gus Johnson: HOF. Career PER of 16.7.
Gail Goodrich: HOF. Career PER of 16.7. Multiple seasons in the 14 and 15's, including his rookie season below 12.
Lenny Wilkens: HOF. Career PER of 16.8. Didn't exceed a PER of 16 until he was 30, in his 8th season.
Dave Cowens: HOF. Career PER of 17. Never exceeded 20.
Dikembe Mutumbo: HOF. One of THE BEST defensive players of all time. Averaged 10/10/3blk career, Career PER 17.2. In the three years he averaged 11/12/4 blk on 50% shooting, his PER was 17, but had DWS in the 4-5 ranges during this time.
Nate Thurmond: HOF. Averaged 20/18/3ast/3blk for a lot of his career (15/15/3/2blk career average even after a few weak seasons at the end of his career), PER never exceed 20, averaging 16.5 for the career, with several seasons of 15 or less at the beginning and end of his career.
Mike Mitchell: Averaged 20pt 5.5reb over a 10 year caeer, 49+% fg, 32mpg, Career PER 16.7, with several seasons in the 15's.
Mo Cheeks: 11/3/7/2stl on the career, 52% fg, All-star, NBA champion, exceeded PER of 20 only twice, 16.6 career average with seasons in the 15's.
Sidney Moncrief: Multiple DPOY winner, still had seasons in the 15 PER range, at the beginning and end of his career.
Bruce Bowen: Career PER of 8. 3 time champion playing 30+mpg.

Ok so there's a few examples. Players in the HOF, with low Career PER's, including low PER's during their prime years. NOW will you admit that PER isn't 100% foolproof, and that yes, there are indeed scenarios where a player, especialy a good defensive player, can have their abilities and worth overlooked by a single metric such as PER, which focuses largely on the offensive side of the game?

and Michael Jordan even had a sub 20.0 season and was an all star that year. It's was when he was with the Wizards and 40 years old. Guess what no one is arguing he was great that season or it was one of his better seasons. Pretty clearly he was about what his PER said he was that season at 19.5 or whatever it was from my memory. Solid boarderline all star, nothing more nothing less.

The guys you mentioned didn't have great statistical seasons IN THOSE years they were sub 20 PER"s either, that's the point, PER was true for them in those seasons and those aren't seasons anyone points too as great seasons. No one has said you can't improve either. Maybe you expect Middleton to be the next Gary Payton though and max him out on that what if "potential". I don't.

The year you point out for Payton for example he was averaging 15 and 5. Whoopty do. That's certainly not a year anyone thinks of as great. It's about average which is what his PER that year said. Reggie Miller shot the ball and that's basically all he did. That year his scoring average fell off and was under 20ppg per 36. He does nothing else much either.

Rodman and Wallance are obviously great at certain elite talents and god awful at most of the rest of skills in basketball. The fact they are Average in PER actually says a lot for PER that they to make up for the lack of doing much of anything else other than rebounding and defensive stats and still are average in PER and as good as Middleton. I think most people understand can rationalize the few unique cases like this as well.

The rest are mostly dinosaurs before 3's, or even blocks or steals were kept. Good try though.

[ontnut]

Hollinger admits: "PER largely measures offensive performance. Hollinger freely admits that two of the defensive statistics it incorporates—blocks and steals (which was not tracked as an official stat until 1973)—can produce a distorted picture of a player's value and that PER is not a reliable measure of a player's defensive acumen. For example, Bruce Bowen, widely regarded as one of the best defenders in the NBA (at least through the 2006–07 season), has routinely posted single-digit PERs.

His defensive ratings were worse than the OVERALL team defensive ratings even while with the Spurs. They were worse even on defense when he was on the court. That's all that really needs to be said about the myth of Bowen. He was cut by multiple teams, and overrated product of a spurs system and playing in front of Tim Duncan even as defense goes IMO. His other stats and part of his game are freaking horrid as well.

BTW I've read where you copied that article from 5 years ago and I laugh anytime anyone tries to use him as an example of why PER isn't a solid metric. You put Bowen on about any other team and he would have been cut. Just happened to fit a certain role on a good team and have a coach that believed in him even if the numbers said otherwise and some dumb ass media that gave him awards Duncan drove.

Reggie Miller: HOF. Career 18.4, First 2 seasons 14.0, 15.7, then into the 21 range, then dipped to 17.6 in the 5th year.
Dennis Rodman: HOF. Multiple champion. Career PER of 14.6. Multiple seasons in the 13 range during his prime.
Ben Wallace: One of the best defenders of a generation. DPOY, Champion. Career PER 15.5, crossing into the 18's only once.
Gary Payton: HOF. One of the best PG's of all time, one of the best PG defenders ever. First 2 seasons had PER in the 13's, then 17.
Jamaal Wilkes: HOF. Career PER of 16.5, highest of 18.0
Gus Johnson: HOF. Career PER of 16.7.
Gail Goodrich: HOF. Career PER of 16.7. Multiple seasons in the 14 and 15's, including his rookie season below 12.
Lenny Wilkens: HOF. Career PER of 16.8. Didn't exceed a PER of 16 until he was 30, in his 8th season.
Dave Cowens: HOF. Career PER of 17. Never exceeded 20.
Dikembe Mutumbo: HOF. One of THE BEST defensive players of all time. Averaged 10/10/3blk career, Career PER 17.2. In the three years he averaged 11/12/4 blk on 50% shooting, his PER was 17, but had DWS in the 4-5 ranges during this time.
Nate Thurmond: HOF. Averaged 20/18/3ast/3blk for a lot of his career (15/15/3/2blk career average even after a few weak seasons at the end of his career), PER never exceed 20, averaging 16.5 for the career, with several seasons of 15 or less at the beginning and end of his career.
Mike Mitchell: Averaged 20pt 5.5reb over a 10 year caeer, 49+% fg, 32mpg, Career PER 16.7, with several seasons in the 15's.
Mo Cheeks: 11/3/7/2stl on the career, 52% fg, All-star, NBA champion, exceeded PER of 20 only twice, 16.6 career average with seasons in the 15's.
Sidney Moncrief: Multiple DPOY winner, still had seasons in the 15 PER range, at the beginning and end of his career.
Bruce Bowen: Career PER of 8. 3 time champion playing 30+mpg.

Ok so there's a few examples. Players in the HOF, with low Career PER's, including low PER's during their prime years. NOW will you admit that PER isn't 100% foolproof, and that yes, there are indeed scenarios where a player, especialy a good defensive player, can have their abilities and worth overlooked by a single metric such as PER, which focuses largely on the offensive side of the game?

and Michael Jordan even had a sub 20.0 season and was an all star that year. It's was when he was with the Wizards and 40 years old. Guess what no one is arguing he was great that season or it was one of his better seasons. Pretty clearly he was about what his PER said he was that season at 19.5 or whatever it was from my memory. Solid boarderline all star, nothing more nothing less.

The guys you mentioned didn't have great statistical seasons IN THOSE years they were sub 20 PER"s either, that's the point, PER was true for them in those seasons and those aren't seasons anyone points too as great seasons. No one has said you can't improve either. Maybe you expect Middleton to be the next Gary Payton though and max him out on that what if "potential". I don't.

The year you point out for Payton for example he was averaging 15 and 5. Whoopty do. That's certainly not a year anyone thinks of as great. It's about average which is what his PER that year said. Reggie Miller shot the ball and that's basically all he did. That year his scoring average fell off and was under 20ppg per 36. He does nothing else much either.

Rodman and Wallance are obviously great at certain elite talents and god awful at most of the rest of skills in basketball. The fact they are Average in PER actually says a lot for PER that they to make up for the lack of doing much of anything else other than rebounding and defensive stats and still are average in PER and as good as Middleton. I think most people understand can rationalize the few unique cases like this as well.

The rest are mostly dinosaurs before 3's, or even blocks or steals were kept. Good try though.

I guess there's no convincing you then.

You said: Players that are max worthy must have a high PER. Period. Check the HOF. Middleton's PER is average, so he's average, and will always be average.
I said: Middleton is a young, strong defensive player with decent offensive stats, which often results in a low PER. So even with low PER he may deserve the max, given the cap, and because PER doesn't always accurately reflect a player's value.
Then I showed: There are cases of players, even in the HOF, legendary players, who had low PER but were still amazing players. Many of them were strong defensive players. But even in some cases, strong offensive players had low PER. Therefore, it's not always an accurate predictor of skill/worth.
Then you said: Those guys are exceptions to the rules. They were good at 1 or 2 things only, so having a low PER, for them, is ok, and we can disregard PER in this case. OR perhaps they had a below average season, and every other year in their prime they had good stats and good PER. So because we somehow KNOW that they are good players, and it was a statistical anomaly, we can disregard PER.

Isn't that basically a circular argument where you contradict yourself? How can there be exceptions to the PER rule in those cases, in your mind, but there be no possible exception at all, specifically in this case? How do you know Middleton is not that type of good player who will average a 20 PER over his career? How do you predict that? I'm not saying he will, but he's improved year over year and has the tools to do it. Jimmy Butler did it, why can't he?

Is Middleton the second coming of Rodman? NO.
Is he going to be in the HOF? No.
Am I straight up comparing his skill to any of those guys? No.
But does he look like a complete player, with size and length, who can score, rebound, distribute and defend at an average, if not above average level? YES.
Is he potentially the type of player where PER may not accurately reflect his worth, similar to some of the guys listed above? YES.
Is his skillset and potential worth a 4 or 5 year contract worth approximately an average $11 million (pro-rated over the life of the contract given this year's cap, vs. the increasing cap) in the current NBA market? YES.
Is he just about to enter his prime in the next couple years, likely with an improving and healthy Parker/Giannis and thus likely to improve on his stats, if not breakout, for the next couple years (going by PER for you = 16-18 range)? YES.
Isn't a PER of 16-17.5, for a young player (he's 23), worth about 10-15 mil in today's NBA environment? And by 10-15 million I mean, 15 million now, which will be worth a pro rated 10 million when the cap is 100 million in 3 years. YES. (ex of players in that PER range this season: Derozan, Draymond Green, Ibaka, Pekovic, Dragic, Kemba Walker, Chandler Parsons, Wes Matthews, Tony Parker, Derrick Rose)

Maybe you just don't like his style or game, and that's fine. Maybe you don't think he has any potential to improve, or breakout...fine. You don't think he's worth the money, fine. But it's silly to suggest that simply because his PER was 15 last year, that because of that single reason alone, he's branded an average player at best, and worth less than the max, which is what you said, and what I was trying to argue against.