Jalen Brunson Expected To Command Contract That 'Meets Or Exceeds' Fred VanVleet Deal

[RealGM Wiretap]

The Dallas Mavericks are not concerned over the New York Knicks hiring of Jalen Brunson's father Rick as an assistant coach, according to Marc Stein.

It has been known throughout the league that Tom Thibodeau wanted to hire the elder Brunson since taking over the head coach position in 2020.

Stein adds that Jalen Brunson is expected to receive a contract that meets or exceeds Fred VanVleet's four year, $85 million deal with the Raptors.  

Via Marc Stein/Substack

[watpho71]

He will look nice in a Knicks uniform.

[HotelVitale]

He will look nice in a Knicks uniform.

Too bad the Knicks used all their potential cap space last year signing Fournier and Kemba and extending half the team (Randle, Noel, Burks, Rose.) No real path to offering a $20m+ deal to anyone right now.

[MadDogSHWA]

It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him get more than Freddy.

[spree2kawhi]

VanVleet is a lot better.

[Scalabrine]

He will look nice in a Knicks uniform.

Too bad the Knicks used all their potential cap space last year signing Fournier and Kemba and extending half the team (Randle, Noel, Burks, Rose.) No real path to offering a $20m+ deal to anyone right now.

I mean, if the NBA off-season has taught you anything, it's that teams and players will find a way. All those guys are on expiring deals and very movable and there are quite a few non-guaranteed deals, and trade exceptions out there. Sign and Trade for Mitch Robinson shouldn't be out of the equation either...

[HotelVitale]

He will look nice in a Knicks uniform.

Too bad the Knicks used all their potential cap space last year signing Fournier and Kemba and extending half the team (Randle, Noel, Burks, Rose.) No real path to offering a $20m+ deal to anyone right now.

I mean, if the NBA off-season has taught you anything, it's that teams and players will find a way. All those guys are on expiring deals and very movable and there are quite a few non-guaranteed deals, and trade exceptions out there. Sign and Trade for Mitch Robinson shouldn't be out of the equation either...

Sure but then you’re talking about the Knicks burning draft picks and assets to free cap for the right to overpay (or at least very handsomely pay) Brunson. Or the Mavs have to agree to that as well in many scenarios—meaning the $ would have too big for them and/or the assets significant enough—rather than it just being about Brunson choosing his best spot.

Most deals for players of Brunsons caliber are more about one team not wanting the guy at his market rate than one team forcing another to give them their guy.

[Kevin Willis]

VanVleet is a lot better.

Yep. VanVleet is an all-star NBA champion. Not sure why Brunson would get the same amount, that would inflate salary all over the league. Put FVV on Dallas and they would probably beat GS because FVV is a better defender, can play off-ball and would get wide open shots because Doncic sucks in the defense.

[spree2kawhi]

VanVleet is a lot better.

Yep. VanVleet is an all-star NBA champion. Not sure why Brunson would get the same amount, that would inflate salary all over the league. Put FVV on Dallas and they would probably beat GS because FVV is a better defender, can play off-ball and would get wide open shots because Doncic sucks in the defense.

Dallas wouldn’t even beat GSW with both of them, but FVV is definitely the player you called him.

[SelfishPlayer]

VanVleet may be better, but salaries increase every year. He wouldn't be justified in making FVV money or greater if they were both free agents at the same time.

[eureca20]

VanVleet is a lot better.

Yep. VanVleet is an all-star NBA champion. Not sure why Brunson would get the same amount, that would inflate salary all over the league. Put FVV on Dallas and they would probably beat GS because FVV is a better defender, can play off-ball and would get wide open shots because Doncic sucks in the defense.

Fred was an all star 2 years after he signed that contract. In a year where it wasn't the strongest group of Eastern All stars.

And he averaged 8 points off the bench on that championship run. My point being that his stock grew more after he signed that contract. Fred is a better player. Brunson is way way more efficient on offense. Brunson might be worth around that Fred VanVleet money. That is just the NBA. It also depends on the market. Who has cap room and what position do they need.

[Cassius]

Eureca and Selfish hit it on the head. Jalen's offensive game > Fred, and Fred current salary will equal Jalen first year of new deal salary, so the total contract value will probably end up higher.

[Kevin Willis]

VanVleet is a lot better.

Yep. VanVleet is an all-star NBA champion. Not sure why Brunson would get the same amount, that would inflate salary all over the league. Put FVV on Dallas and they would probably beat GS because FVV is a better defender, can play off-ball and would get wide open shots because Doncic sucks in the defense.

Fred was an all star 2 years after he signed that contract. In a year where it wasn't the strongest group of Eastern All stars.

And he averaged 8 points off the bench on that championship run. My point being that his stock grew more after he signed that contract. Fred is a better player. Brunson is way way more efficient on offense. Brunson might be worth around that Fred VanVleet money. That is just the NBA. It also depends on the market. Who has cap room and what position do they need.

I understand your points and they are valid. I took a quick look at the players that are making around FVV.

Brogdan 21.25 (in millions)
Lo. Ball 20
Smart 19
Conley 22.68

Does Brunson belong in this group of annual salaries? I am taking into consideration that each person's contract lengths and how much is served. Also consider when a player signs a multi-year contract there is a projection going forward on what the player is worth now, what they will be worth in the future and the future salary cap. Guys in FVV's range tend to be borderline all-stars and all-nba teams. The tier above this group has Lowry, J. Murray, C. Paul, Russell, Irving, etc. The tier below this group has Derrick White, Bledsoe, Rubio, Murray (for now). I think he belongs more in this group but I am not a salary numbers guy to compare their current and project numbers. If you swap Brunson with anyone in FVV's tier it would improve the Mavs and hurt the other team that got swapped.

[meekrab]

Brunson is a lot better than FVV was when he signed his deal. General lack of cap space around the league this summer hurts his earning potential though.

[Temuhjan]

I understand your points and they are valid. I took a quick look at the players that are making around FVV.

Brogdan 21.25 (in millions)
Lo. Ball 20
Smart 19
Conley 22.68

Does Brunson belong in this group of annual salaries? I am taking into consideration that each person's contract lengths and how much is served. Also consider when a player signs a multi-year contract there is a projection going forward on what the player is worth now, what they will be worth in the future and the future salary cap. Guys in FVV's range tend to be borderline all-stars and all-nba teams. The tier above this group has Lowry, J. Murray, C. Paul, Russell, Irving, etc. The tier below this group has Derrick White, Bledsoe, Rubio, Murray (for now). I think he belongs more in this group but I am not a salary numbers guy to compare their current and project numbers. If you swap Brunson with anyone in FVV's tier it would improve the Mavs and hurt the other team that got swapped.

Thanks for the good work. I did some digging around and found Brunson resembles Patrick Beverley the most. His stats sit half way between the the groups you mentioned and is paid $40m/3 years.

Even if PatBev is considered underpaid and adjusting for inflation, I would not expect Brunson to be paid more than Derrick White ($70m/4 years).