Post#5 » by dougthonus » Thu Jul 21, 2022 1:43 pm
People shouldn't treat first round picks as just all being equal.
A first round pick at #1 is worth about 10,000x as much as one at 30 and their is a range in between, yet people just talk about quantity of 1st round picks without actually discussing the likely value of them individually.
NY strikes me as a team that has a pretty fair shot of giving you some good 1st round picks even with Mitchell. The East has gotten a lot better and is no cakewalk anymore and has a lot of young up and coming teams in it. The Knicks don't really have other star talent around Mitchell or a good fitting cast around him. If something bad happens with Mitchell there (say an injury), it's pretty easy to imagine a scenario where NY has years where they completely fall off a cliff and deliver you some lotto picks.
I'd be way more concerned about getting a package from Miami. Maybe if they throw in Bam, so you feel like you are starting with a star player coming back and the extra picks are just icing, but that seems unlikely. Seems like they want to dump Herro whom feels likely to be an overpaid guy on his next deal anyway, and their picks feel way less likely to convey into something good. Miami has a long history of excellence in picking players out of no where, developing them, and has maybe the best coach in the league.
Even when their roster appeared to have nothing, they weren't falling that far away from contention and with their core, they would seem to have a great chance to win the title even for the next 3 years, so potential value is only in the late end picks, and even if Donovan or Butler gets hurt, they'd have enough to still be a decent team.
If NYK is willing to give up 4 unprotected and matches salary with whatever, then I think its unlikely you're finding a better offer than that. The only question would be do you keep or trade. I think the number of teams left that have boatload of picks to sacrifice is very, very small which is the same reason Kevin Durant is sitting there available.